Partition of Germany if the soviets perform worse

[AustrianFanboy]

Assume the soviets perform worse than OTL against Germany; for any reason they still win, but their Advance towards Germany Is well behind schedule compared to OTL; by the time the war in Europe ends they are at the Vistula River, or at the Oder at most.
Are the soviets still going to get a share of Germany?
Would, for instance, a DDR based on the territories which OTL went to Poland (an off C-shaped country) be feasible?

 

[MickCz]

The Soviets get the previously agreed Occupation Zone as per Yalta.

 

[JohnBull]

The Soviets get the previously agreed Occupation Zone as per Yalta.

Maybe @AustrianFanboy meant before Yalta. Soviet advances would indicate they would be farther away.

I don't see division beyond the Oder though. Maybe it could run through Berlin, even if WAllies had met Soviets on Polish lands. In this case, Soviets would probably want a bigger East Germany, including Pomerania and Silesia. East Prussia would most likely to be partioned between USSR and Poland.

That would be the most practical scenario anyway, as the German population wouldn't have left those eastern regions as Soviets were still far away. They might actually have been receiving some refugees from west.

And also, things could play differently, and Germany could follow Austria, neutralized but not partitioned.

 

[marcinL]

Let's say Soviets reach only Vistula. This suggests they are much weaker than otl, and basically on their last legs when the war ends, so their bargain position is much weaker, and it is the Allies who took the heavy lifting in the late war, probably with the war ending with nuking Berlin (or some other place).

It is possible there could be no division, but joint occupation instead. On the other hand, weaker Soviets mean Allies don't need to worry about them as much and might get more thorough with denazification and whatnot.

Polish government in exile would establish its shop in the Allied controlled Poland. If the Soviet's are very weak it is possible that central Europe is left free.

Of course, lands east of Oder would still be lost for Germany. The local Germans would still be expelled, but in somewhat more civilized manner, perhaps more would be allowed to stay as Western Poland, as it would be short on people, especially as slower Soviet advance would mean even more Poles murdered by Germany. There would be also less looting, so the western Poland would be richer from the start.

 

[marathag]

Way, way worse? East Prussia and 1/4 of Berlin

 

[kham_coc]

If the Soviets do worse, there are practical effects, that will have an impact - who will do the ethnic cleansing if the Soviets aren't there? Not insoluble, but it has an impact.

Even in a scenario where "unconditional" surrender applies, in actual practice, there could be plenty of conditions agreed behind the scenes so to speak.

Would for example the Allies be willing to expend a few hundred thousand casualties for Austria say? Or would they say that the Austro German union was democratic and subsequently not something to revisit?
I doubt that would have been problematic back home.

The Suddetenland, not as easy as Austria but on the other hand it was a pre-war conquest which matters a bit. There is also a practical problem in that the Czech state can't exactly engage in ethnic cleansing willy nilly.

Would they be willing to bleed for Poland to have land that's been German for centuries?
There is also a practice and theory problem here where a theoretical polish claim is simply practically unviable.

All of this really depends on the PoD - if it is Germany does generally better, and the Soviets are held on the vVstula and the Allies somewhere in France and it ends when some German generals coup Hitler - I can't see how the Allies won't be willing to give some concessions. In extremis the iron curtain goes along the Vistula, and East Germany is east Prussia. (Alternatively, it all becomes polish).
Maybe we see a west Poland and an East Poland.
In truly bonkers territory, the border is on the vistula and Germany keeps the bits of Poland that's west of it (in case it's not viable as a state)/they aren't handing it over to the Soviets.

Another consideration is, what happens with all the puppet governments?
If no one invades Slovakia, can the Czechoslovakian state be reconstituted at all?

 

[AustrianFanboy]

Maybe @AustrianFanboy meant before Yalta. Soviet advances would indicate they would be farther away.

I don't see division beyond the Oder though. Maybe it could run through Berlin, even if WAllies had met Soviets on Polish lands. In this case, Soviets would probably want a bigger East Germany, including Pomerania and Silesia. East Prussia would most likely to be partioned between USSR and Poland.

That would be the most practical scenario anyway, as the German population wouldn't have left those eastern regions as Soviets were still far away. They might actually have been receiving some refugees from west.

And also, things could play differently, and Germany could follow Austria, neutralized but not partitioned.

Yeah that's what I meant: weaker SU = no (or different) Yalta

 

[marcinL]

If the Soviets do worse, there are practical effects, that will have an impact - who will do the ethnic cleansing if the Soviets aren't there? Not insoluble, but it has an impact.

Poles, Czechs, Yugoslavs, French, British, Americans, pick your choice

Even in a scenario where "unconditional" surrender applies, in actual practice, there could be plenty of conditions agreed behind the scenes so to speak.

Would for example the Allies be willing to expend a few hundred thousand casualties for Austria say? Or would they say that the Austro German union was democratic and subsequently not something to revisit?
I doubt that would have been problematic back home.

After nuking couple German cities it would be basically a big country ride. Even otl Patton's recon allegedly entered modern Poland's borders.

The Suddetenland, not as easy as Austria but on the other hand it was a pre-war conquest which matters a bit. There is also a practical problem in that the Czech state can't exactly engage in ethnic cleansing willy nilly.

They did otl, so why not?

Would they be willing to bleed for Poland to have land that's been German for centuries?
There is also a practice and theory problem here where a theoretical polish claim is simply practically unviable.

That theoretical Polish claim become reality in otl, so obviously it is quite viable.

All of this really depends on the PoD - if it is Germany does generally better, and the Soviets are held on the vVstula and the Allies somewhere in France and it ends when some German generals coup Hitler - I can't see how the Allies won't be willing to give some concessions. In extremis the iron curtain goes along the Vistula, and East Germany is east Prussia. (Alternatively, it all becomes polish).
Maybe we see a west Poland and an East Poland.

I see it as the eastern front becoming a bloody stalemate, perhaps even with Moscow having fallen or something similarily bad for Soviets, until Allies come knocking in '44. Then as the Allies evict Germans from France, more and more units are recalled west, and eventually the Soviets gain upper hand, but only advance as far as into Poland basically after Germany is nuked and their entire defence collapse.

In truly bonkers territory, the border is on the vistula and Germany keeps the bits of Poland that's west of it (in case it's not viable as a state)/they aren't handing it over to the Soviets.

Lol, not gonna happen.

Another consideration is, what happens with all the puppet governments?
If no one invades Slovakia, can the Czechoslovakian state be reconstituted at all?

It would likely be taken by the ttl's Third Army with whatever Czechoslovak auxilliaries they can raise.

 

[Insane Ranter]

Here is where everything was in OTL at the end of Yalta.

If the Soviets are still way back in Poland they aren't meeting at Yalta yet to decide anything. Stalin isn't wanting to do that just yet. Where they are on the Map above is pretty much the Order River. How are the Germans stalling the Soviets there or pushing them back? Does Hitler decide no push in the West (Not Bulge back in Dec) but a push in the East? Churchill is not going to push to partition Germany if the Soviets are still messing around in Poland as British and American troops are rolling into Berlin. Not after British and American lives are spilled taking all of that territory while the Soviets just lagged about not trying to push into Germany.

 

[David T]

Maybe @AustrianFanboy meant before Yalta. Soviet advances would indicate they would be farther away.

You need a POD not just well before Yalta but probably before 1944. The zoning of Germany, including the multi-power administration of Berlin, had already been agreed on in its essence by early 1944 and formally (with a detailed description of the borders of the zones) in the "Protocol on Zones of Occupation and the Administration of ―Greater Berlin‖ (September 12, 1944)" http://germanhistorydocs.ghi-dc.org/pdf/eng/Allied Policies 1_ENG.pdf (The major change made later was to give France its own occupation zone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_occupation_zone_in_Germany)

 

[marcinL]

Here is where everything was in OTL at the end of Yalta.
View attachment 720938

If the Soviets are still way back in Poland they aren't meeting at Yalta yet to decide anything. Stalin isn't wanting to do that just yet. Where they are on the Map above is pretty much the Order River. How are the Germans stalling the Soviets there or pushing them back? Does Hitler decide no push in the West (Not Bulge back in Dec) but a push in the East? Churchill is not going to push to partition Germany if the Soviets are still messing around in Poland as British and American troops are rolling into Berlin. Not after British and American lives are spilled taking all of that territory while the Soviets just lagged about not trying to push into Germany.

For the war to end with Soviets on Vistula, or even on Oder, at the point when Allies are in Belgium, Soviets would need to be on Dniepr or thereabouts.

 

[kham_coc]

After nuking couple German cities it would be basically a big country ride. Even otl Patton's recon allegedly entered modern Poland's borders.

To the last day, the luftwaffe contested the air, so nukes aren't the instawin buttons you imagine them to be.

They did otl, so why not?

Pretty sure that was the soviets.

That theoretical Polish claim become reality in otl, so obviously it is quite viable.

The Soviets, and this was during the War.

I see it as the eastern front becoming a bloody stalemate, perhaps even with Moscow having fallen or something similarily bad for Soviets, until Allies come knocking in '44. Then as the Allies evict Germans from France, more and more units are recalled west, and eventually the Soviets gain upper hand, but only advance as far as into Poland basically after Germany is nuked and their entire defence collapse.

In this scenario, I would say that D-day is a fantasy. The reality is that the Allies came knocking in 44' because the Soviets were winning in the east - If they aren't, the Allies can't really do D-day.

Lol, not gonna happen.

Do you need a dictionary?
adjective: mad; crazy.

It would likely be taken by the ttl's Third Army with whatever Czechoslovak auxilliaries they can raise.

This would be an invasion of Slovakia, to force them back into a Union with the Czechs that they, as far as i understood it, Genuinely did not wish to be a part of?
Not sure that one is as viable as you think it is.

 

[JohnBull]

You need a POD not just well before Yalta but probably before 1944. The zoning of Germany, including the multi-power administration of Berlin, had already been agreed on in its essence by early 1944 and formally (with a detailed description of the borders of the zones) in the "Protocol on Zones of Occupation and the Administration of ―Greater Berlin‖ (September 12, 1944)" http://germanhistorydocs.ghi-dc.org/pdf/eng/Allied Policies 1_ENG.pdf (The major change made later was to give France its own occupation zone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_occupation_zone_in_Germany)

Partition yes, but not the size of each chunk otherwise Yalta would be redundant. Churchill, for instance, had a hard time to take Silesia away from Germany. As @Insane Ranter mentioned above, if Soviets were doing worse (no Bulge or different dynamics on battlefield), maps on Yalta would most likely be different. It's not like the British were eager to gift Soviets with control (look Churchill's obsession with Greece and the Balkans and the Iron Curtain speech just a year later).

 

[marcinL]

Partition yes, but not the size of each chunk otherwise Yalta would be redundant. Churchill, for instance, had a hard time to take Silesia away from Germany. As @Insane Ranter mentioned above, if Soviets were doing worse (no Bulge or different dynamics on battlefield), maps on Yalta would most likely be different. It's not like the British were eager to gift Soviets with control (look Churchill's obsession with Greece and the Balkans and the Iron Curtain speech just a year later).

Because it was going to the Soviet camp which he saw as enemy

 

[JohnBull]

Because it was going to the Soviet camp which he saw as enemy

Indeed. And that's why if the Soviets were doing worse than OTL, partition would also be different as they wouldn't be willing to give up territories they conquered.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

We should keep in mind German population distribution was very different back then. West Germany didn't have this massive share on total population they have today. Cities like Dresden, Leipzig, Breslau were pretty much the same size of Cologne or Munich. Even Berlin was much bigger, almost 3x more populated the 2nd city, Hamburg.

If the partition line went through Berlin, "Soviet Germany" wouldn't be that small. Big cities like Dresden (?), Breslau, Stettin, Danzig, Königsberg would be on their side. It would be a 15-16 million people East Germany, not that different from the OTL. The Soviets would still have a good chunk of Germany for their own. They would probably won't give any piece of it to Poland in this scenario.

 

[kham_coc]

Because it was going to the Soviet camp which he saw as enemy

Well if the ussr is doing so badly that Poland isn't a Soviet puppet, then Germany is winning.