Ottoman Empire stays out of WWI, how does this changes the course of the war?

From what I've been reading about WWI, the Ottomans and Young Turks weren't exactly keen on joining the war because they preferred to focus on improving the empire instead of wasting money and energy they didn't have into a war. It took a incident with one of their ships being led by a German captain to drag them into war and we all know what happens next for the Ottomans.

So what if they can avoid being sucked into the war and stay neutral? How does that impact Russian performance in WWI and WWI in general as the Ottomans can avoid a collapse of their empire and survive into the decades to come?
 
Do the Greek and Armenian genocides still occur? Does Ataturk rise to power without his WW1 heroism?

The Greeks, Bulgarians, British, French and Russians still want to dissect the Empire?

They will sponsor guerrillas and risings to grab land and oil.
 
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The Ottoman front was a massive drain on resources for the Entente. The Ottomans, despite having the worst reputation and preparation for the First World War, punched well above their weight in diverting Entente troops, and most importantly stopped big flow of supplies to the Russian Empire. If the Dardanelles stay open to trade ships, the Russians are much more likely to not only do better, but also avoid the Russian Revolution knocking them out of the war.

Can’t say big changes in Russian society won’t occur, but the extra flow of resources likely will make things a lot easier for them.
 
The Ottoman front was a massive drain on resources for the Entente. The Ottomans, despite having the worst reputation and preparation for the First World War, punched well above their weight in diverting Entente troops, and most importantly stopped big flow of supplies to the Russian Empire. If the Dardanelles stay open to trade ships, the Russians are much more likely to not only do better, but also avoid the Russian Revolution knocking them out of the war.

Can’t say big changes in Russian society won’t occur, but the extra flow of resources likely will make things a lot easier for them.
Hopefully it gives Russia enough time to have someone else to Nicky to actually start improving the country and continue the industrialization of the empire.


Honestly Germany would have to truly divert troops in order to deal with the extra Russian armies thrown their way, something that would definitely impacted all of their offenses as well as resisting any Entente offenses.
 

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Well it remove the Middle East as a theatre of war and prevents the waste of men and resources at Gallipoli and Salonika as well. It may force the British government to accept the unpalatable truth that the war can only be won on the Western Front.
 
Do the Greek and Armenian genocides still occur? Does Ataturk rise to power without his WW1 heroism?

The Greeks, Bulgarians, British, French and Russians still want to dissect the Empire?

They will sponsor guerrillas and risings to grab land and oil.
I would say not, everyone would be exhausted from WWI to try any more adventurism and would need to recover, especially because the Young Turks would use the time to modernize and strengthen the empire
 
Well it remove the Middle East as a theatre of war and prevents the waste of men and resources at Gallipoli and Salonika as well. It may force the British government to accept the unpalatable truth that the war can only be won on the Western Front.
That means the ANZAC troops and the like would sent into the western front and most likely, be sent to support Serbia.


It also means Churchill wouldn't have his career blemished by insisting in the campaign of Gallipoli
 
The Ottoman front was a massive drain on resources for the Entente. The Ottomans, despite having the worst reputation and preparation for the First World War, punched well above their weight in diverting Entente troops, and most importantly stopped big flow of supplies to the Russian Empire. If the Dardanelles stay open to trade ships, the Russians are much more likely to not only do better, but also avoid the Russian Revolution knocking them out of the war.

Can’t say big changes in Russian society won’t occur, but the extra flow of resources likely will make things a lot easier for them.
The Dardanelles closed before the Ottomans entered the war. I suspect that they may stay open in the event of neutral ottomans.

It will free up large numbers of Entente materials for operations in the Western front. I don't want to say that it will free up a large number of troops as the majority of freed up troops will not see the western front. Troops on the western front used up much more material than troops in Egypt or Iraq. It might allow 1 soldier to deploy in the western front for every 5 released from service against the Ottomans.

There was a surprisingly small number of Russian troops involved in the Caucus front during WW1 (especially in the early months) but freeing them up would have a significant effect.
 
The Dardanelles closed before the Ottomans entered the war. I suspect that they may stay open in the event of neutral ottomans.

It will free up large numbers of Entente materials for operations in the Western front. I don't want to say that it will free up a large number of troops as the majority of freed up troops will not see the western front. Troops on the western front used up much more material than troops in Egypt or Iraq. It might allow 1 soldier to deploy in the western front for every 5 released from service against the Ottomans.

There was a surprisingly small number of Russian troops involved in the Caucus front during WW1 (especially in the early months) but freeing them up would have a significant effect.
Was surprised to see that when looking at their early deployments. They sent many of the troops from the Caucuses to the Eastern Front.
 
The Dardanelles closed before the Ottomans entered the war. I suspect that they may stay open in the event of neutral ottomans.

It will free up large numbers of Entente materials for operations in the Western front. I don't want to say that it will free up a large number of troops as the majority of freed up troops will not see the western front. Troops on the western front used up much more material than troops in Egypt or Iraq. It might allow 1 soldier to deploy in the western front for every 5 released from service against the Ottomans.

There was a surprisingly small number of Russian troops involved in the Caucus front during WW1 (especially in the early months) but freeing them up would have a significant effect.
This, Ottomans could make a lot of money by having it open as Russia uses it as their only source of supplies and selling of food to the outside world.
 
Neutral Ottoman Empire would free millions men to both frontlines. Bulgaria and Greece might remain neutral but Italy probably still enters to the war. CPs would are defeated perhaps already in 1916 so Russia would avoid OTL revolutions. Treaty of Versailles would be different since Russia would have something saying and on other hand Britain would be more worried about Russia since it is not now in civil war. So France would be pressure to give more lenient altough still harsh terms. Austria-Hungary would be still divided altough Habsburgs might somehow survive. German monarchy would too survive altough Wilhelm II is probably enforced to abdicate.

Future of Russia is intresting. Altough Russia survived as victor it doesn't mean that Nicholas II would be more popular. He would now face demands of returning soldiers and old problems would still continue. Bolsheviks not take power and there is not civil war but Russian future is not still easy at least not yet during remaining 1910's nor early 1920's.

Ottoman Empire might now survive assuming that government manage to handle problems. I don't think that Entente is going to divide the empire altough they would increase their influence but it would be more like they did over Persia, not outright conquest. They are now really exhausted over the war altough it lasted shorter time. There probably not be Armenian or other genocides but many minorities still wouldn't have fun times.
 
Neutral Ottoman Empire would free millions men to both frontlines. Bulgaria and Greece might remain neutral but Italy probably still enters to the war. CPs would are defeated perhaps already in 1916 so Russia would avoid OTL revolutions. Treaty of Versailles would be different since Russia would have something saying and on other hand Britain would be more worried about Russia since it is not now in civil war. So France would be pressure to give more lenient altough still harsh terms. Austria-Hungary would be still divided altough Habsburgs might somehow survive. German monarchy would too survive altough Wilhelm II is probably enforced to abdicate.

Future of Russia is intresting. Altough Russia survived as victor it doesn't mean that Nicholas II would be more popular. He would now face demands of returning soldiers and old problems would still continue. Bolsheviks not take power and there is not civil war but Russian future is not still easy at least not yet during remaining 1910's nor early 1920's.

Ottoman Empire might now survive assuming that government manage to handle problems. I don't think that Entente is going to divide the empire altough they would increase their influence but it would be more like they did over Persia, not outright conquest. They are now really exhausted over the war altough it lasted shorter time. There probably not be Armenian or other genocides but many minorities still wouldn't have fun times.
Yes that's how I mainly see it, Versailles would be interesting given Britain might not want to punish Germany too bad to counter Russia and France but Germany would still get loss of territory and reparations thrown at them but nothing like OTL, so they do lose the Rhur and Alsace-Lorraine to France while giving away their parts of Lithuania and some Polish majority areas in Silesia and Prussia towards the Russian empire, loss of colonies still applies as well as somewhat heavy reparations. Russia and France probably make a permanent defensive pact in case Germany tries a second round.

Austria Hungary is a bit complicated because if the war ended earlier they might've not been desintegrating and fully collapse, so while Hungary might left the monarchy and Bosnia be given away to Serbia, Croatia, Bohemia, Slovakia would still remain with the Habsburgs and the realm could become the federation Franz Ferdinand imagined.

Russia will have interesting times for sure, they barely won by the skin of their teeth and there will be severe labor unrest still, not to mention the growing demands of a middle class associated with industrial and commercial growth, Nicholas II wouldn't be liked by anyone and it would simply be best if he renounced to someone else even if it meant a regency but Russia will be definitely looking inwards and resolving their own issues like dealing with "The Polish Question" or dealing with army reforms.

Ottomans would have a good time overall as everyone who wanted to use them for their own gains is now fully exhausted and they can focus on themselves, especially once they find oil in Iraq and Arabia, which not only would be a perfect money maker to modernize their country but also give plenty of jobs for Arabs and Turks alike even if they have to give 30% of profits to some Western company who's helping them extract it, it's a great victory still. The minorities in the empire will go through turbulent times but I think that eventually things will get better once the specter of war passes and the country continues modernizing, since they were used as escape goats for military and political failures and that's unlikely to happen here but things would still be violent and tense enough to the point many of them would migrate towards the Americas, which would also have the interesting diplomatic effect of having the Ottomans have major relations with the Latin American countries like OTL Arab countries have with Brazil and Argentina.
 
Yes that's how I mainly see it, Versailles would be interesting given Britain might not want to punish Germany too bad to counter Russia and France but Germany would still get loss of territory and reparations thrown at them but nothing like OTL, so they do lose the Rhur and Alsace-Lorraine to France while giving away their parts of Lithuania and some Polish majority areas in Silesia and Prussia towards the Russian empire, loss of colonies still applies as well as somewhat heavy reparations. Russia and France probably make a permanent defensive pact in case Germany tries a second round.


Yes, France would definitely take Alsace-Lorraine and perhaps taking Rheinland but hardly annexation like it didn't that in OTL either. Some reparations surely. Russia might demand some border adjustments. But not sure if Russia wants take too many Poles more, speciality if they already take Galicia. That would be enough of headache. In other hand Nicky was good causing headache for his nation.

And there might be indeed even closer alliance between France and Russia. Germany then probably approaches towards Britain.

Austria Hungary is a bit complicated because if the war ended earlier they might've not been desintegrating and fully collapse, so while Hungary might left the monarchy and Bosnia be given away to Serbia, Croatia, Bohemia, Slovakia would still remain with the Habsburgs and the realm could become the federation Franz Ferdinand imagined.

A-H is indeed intresting. It would lost at least Galicia and Bosnia. And if Italy enters to the war A-H would lost too same what it lost in OTL and if the country is not betrayed, Italy gets Dalmatia too. Hungary probably secedes altough it would take Slovakia too since it was part of Hungary. Another thing is what would happen for its borders but I don't think that it would be such harsh as OTL Trianon.

Russia will have interesting times for sure, they barely won by the skin of their teeth and there will be severe labor unrest still, not to mention the growing demands of a middle class associated with industrial and commercial growth, Nicholas II wouldn't be liked by anyone and it would simply be best if he renounced to someone else even if it meant a regency but Russia will be definitely looking inwards and resolving their own issues like dealing with "The Polish Question" or dealing with army reforms.

Nicholas II ratherly would had abdicated than accepted any true reforms so then Alexei would become tsar Alexei II. His reign anyway would be pretty short due hemophilia and then succeeded by Nicholas' brother Michael II. Russia probably would stabilise during 1920's. There is too even small possibility that Poland and Finland still gain independence but not sure how certain it would be.

Ottomans would have a good time overall as everyone who wanted to use them for their own gains is now fully exhausted and they can focus on themselves, especially once they find oil in Iraq and Arabia, which not only would be a perfect money maker to modernize their country but also give plenty of jobs for Arabs and Turks alike even if they have to give 30% of profits to some Western company who's helping them extract it, it's a great victory still. The minorities in the empire will go through turbulent times but I think that eventually things will get better once the specter of war passes and the country continues modernizing, since they were used as escape goats for military and political failures and that's unlikely to happen here but things would still be violent and tense enough to the point many of them would migrate towards the Americas, which would also have the interesting diplomatic effect of having the Ottomans have major relations with the Latin American countries like OTL Arab countries have with Brazil and Argentina.

Ottomans indeed will have intresting time speciality after they have found oil from Mesopotamia. Not sure about what they would do with Arabia. Would Ottomans even able to annex almost whole peninsula? Not sure.
 
Yes, France would definitely take Alsace-Lorraine and perhaps taking Rheinland but hardly annexation like it didn't that in OTL either. Some reparations surely. Russia might demand some border adjustments. But not sure if Russia wants take too many Poles more, speciality if they already take Galicia. That would be enough of headache. In other hand Nicky was good causing headache for his nation.

And there might be indeed even closer alliance between France and Russia. Germany then probably approaches towards Britain.



A-H is indeed intresting. It would lost at least Galicia and Bosnia. And if Italy enters to the war A-H would lost too same what it lost in OTL and if the country is not betrayed, Italy gets Dalmatia too. Hungary probably secedes altough it would take Slovakia too since it was part of Hungary. Another thing is what would happen for its borders but I don't think that it would be such harsh as OTL Trianon.



Nicholas II ratherly would had abdicated than accepted any true reforms so then Alexei would become tsar Alexei II. His reign anyway would be pretty short due hemophilia and then succeeded by Nicholas' brother Michael II. Russia probably would stabilise during 1920's. There is too even small possibility that Poland and Finland still gain independence but not sure how certain it would be.



Ottomans indeed will have intresting time speciality after they have found oil from Mesopotamia. Not sure about what they would do with Arabia. Would Ottomans even able to annex almost whole peninsula? Not sure.
Honestly if they continue to modernize and improve their army and state I could see them being able to get the whole of the peninsula, have it be one of the main oil extraction zones and use the ports to transport it throughout the Red, Indian seas as well as the Persian gulf.

Honestly I don't see neither Finland and Poland getting independence, Russia wouldn't be in the same chaos of OTL and would crush any separatist movement with ease, in fact we may even see a continuing of Russian policy where they stripped away more and more autonomy.
 
Honestly if they continue to modernize and improve their army and state I could see them being able to get the whole of the peninsula, have it be one of the main oil extraction zones and use the ports to transport it throughout the Red, Indian seas as well as the Persian gulf.

There is indeed many options for the peninsula.

Honestly I don't see neither Finland and Poland getting independence, Russia wouldn't be in the same chaos of OTL and would crush any separatist movement with ease, in fact we may even see a continuing of Russian policy where they stripped away more and more autonomy.

Depends what kind of politics and government Russia will get and how that tranformation happens. Question is not will there happen something or not but what there will happen.
 
Ottomans indeed will have intresting time speciality after they have found oil from Mesopotamia. Not sure about what they would do with Arabia. Would Ottomans even able to annex almost whole peninsula? Not sure.

Don't really think so, and in any case, the Ottomans already had an ally in Arabia in the form of the Rashidis, so a Ottoman Empire that does not go through World War I might mean the Rashidis survive and the Saudis don't take over Arabia.
 
Don't really think so, and in any case, the Ottomans already had an ally in Arabia in the form of the Rashidis, so a Ottoman Empire that does not go through World War I might mean the Rashidis survive and the Saudis don't take over Arabia.
The British backed the Saudis during the war. Did they back them before WW1?
 
Don't really think so, and in any case, the Ottomans already had an ally in Arabia in the form of the Rashidis, so a Ottoman Empire that does not go through World War I might mean the Rashidis survive and the Saudis don't take over Arabia.
Even better imo, especially if the Ottomans can keep them allied and maintain peace in the peninsula.
 
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