The 2011 federal election
To say that the 2011 Canadian federal election was historic would be an understatement; after decades of Liberal and Conservative dominance, and having won less than 40 seats and less than 20% of the vote in the election just two and a half years prior, the NDP found itself thrust into office, riding the so-called “Orange Crush” to victory and winning 127 seats – four more than the governing Conservatives – and subsequently forming a minority government.
To say the least, this was not the outcome anyone had expected when, on March 26, Governor General David Johnston, acting on the advice of Conservative Prime Minister, called the election for May 9, 2011. The Conservatives had had a stable lead in the polls over the opposition Liberals, benefitting from a successful ad campaign branding Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff as opportunistic and, while most polls still showed them heading to their third consecutive minority government, a possible majority, under the right circumstances, wasn’t entirely ruled out. The NDP, meanwhile, while led by the popular Jack Layton would, the thinking went, remain in fourth, behind the Conservatives, Liberals, and the Bloc Quebecois, which had dominated Quebec since being created 21 years earlier. However, the Bloc base was fragile; support for Quebec separatism was near its lowest point since the 1995 referendum, and the party had mostly retained its support by positioning itself as the one party who would fight for and defend Quebec’s interests in Parliament. Less separatist and more nationalistic, the Bloc had survived by quieting down on separatism and portraying themselves as the defenders of Quebec.
By running their most unabashedly separatist campaign in quite some time, the Bloc would soon realize how thin its support actually was and, thanks to a charismatic leader performing well in the debates and on the campaign trail (and the efforts of Quebec lieutenant Thomas Mulcair), the NDP would soon find itself surging forward in the province. Attempts by the three other parties to discredit the NDP and ridicule the “paper candidates” the party had put forward in the province failed, and week after week the NDP lead in the province grew.
When it came to the Liberals, meanwhile, in some ways the Conservative attacks on Ignatieff had succeeded a bit too well. While many of these unenthusiastic (former) Liberals had initially drifted to the Conservatives, as, at the time, seemingly the only other party capable of forming government, many soon found themselves intrigued by Layton and the NDP. In contrast to Layton, Harper was never personally popular, and the Conservatives, it appeared, had made the crucial mistake of convincing Canadians to not vote for the Liberals while failing to give them a reason to vote Conservative beyond “Michael Ignatieff sucks”. Attempts by Ignatieff and the Liberal campaign to stop the bleeding were largely unsuccessful, particularly after a poor debate performance from Ignatieff, and the “natural governing party” soon found itself polling in third place. One week out, while the Conservatives still had a decent lead, it seemed clear that they would find themselves faced with an NDP opposition.
Then, however, came the final week. Not having anticipated Layton and the NDP being even remotely a threat to them, the Conservatives went after Layton, and went after him hard. Hysterical reminders from Conservative candidates that the NDP was socialist blasted the airwaves and multiple Conservative candidates found themselves in hot water over insensitive comments variously directed towards individual NDP candidates, the LGBTQ community, and others that would benefit from an NDP government. While these various controversies hurt the Conservative standing, what’s generally accepted as the beginning of the end for the Conservative campaign is their decision to run an ad in the final week of the campaign directly going after Layton personally. The ad claimed that, in 1996, Layton had been at a Toronto massage parlour when police raided the establishment looking for underage sex workers, and explicitly asked Canadians if this was the man they wanted running their country. Immediately, however, this ad backfired. Canadians, liking Layton to begin with, immediately saw it as crossing a line, and overwhelming accepted Layton’s explanation that there was no wrongdoing in the matter, saying that he simply “went for a massage at a community clinic” and did not return after the police advised him not to.
With voters overwhelmingly disliking the ad and their poll numbers dropping, the Conservatives would eventually pull it from the air, but the damage to them had already been done. While moderates would shift back to the Liberals, pulling them out of the depths they had been facing just a week prior, by and large voters would drift over to Layton and the NDP, and polls showed the party tied with (if not narrowly leading) the Conservatives. On May 9, 2011, the NDP had achieved history; Layton won a majority government of 127 seats to the Conservatives’ 123 and the Liberals’ 56. Leading a shaky minority government, Jack Layton would soon find himself sworn in as Canada’s first New Democratic Prime Minister. Harper, Ignatieff, and Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe would all resign shortly after the election, and it appeared that Canadian politics had entered a new age. Layton’s death of cancer just three months later would put that all into question.
To say the least, this was not the outcome anyone had expected when, on March 26, Governor General David Johnston, acting on the advice of Conservative Prime Minister, called the election for May 9, 2011. The Conservatives had had a stable lead in the polls over the opposition Liberals, benefitting from a successful ad campaign branding Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff as opportunistic and, while most polls still showed them heading to their third consecutive minority government, a possible majority, under the right circumstances, wasn’t entirely ruled out. The NDP, meanwhile, while led by the popular Jack Layton would, the thinking went, remain in fourth, behind the Conservatives, Liberals, and the Bloc Quebecois, which had dominated Quebec since being created 21 years earlier. However, the Bloc base was fragile; support for Quebec separatism was near its lowest point since the 1995 referendum, and the party had mostly retained its support by positioning itself as the one party who would fight for and defend Quebec’s interests in Parliament. Less separatist and more nationalistic, the Bloc had survived by quieting down on separatism and portraying themselves as the defenders of Quebec.
By running their most unabashedly separatist campaign in quite some time, the Bloc would soon realize how thin its support actually was and, thanks to a charismatic leader performing well in the debates and on the campaign trail (and the efforts of Quebec lieutenant Thomas Mulcair), the NDP would soon find itself surging forward in the province. Attempts by the three other parties to discredit the NDP and ridicule the “paper candidates” the party had put forward in the province failed, and week after week the NDP lead in the province grew.
When it came to the Liberals, meanwhile, in some ways the Conservative attacks on Ignatieff had succeeded a bit too well. While many of these unenthusiastic (former) Liberals had initially drifted to the Conservatives, as, at the time, seemingly the only other party capable of forming government, many soon found themselves intrigued by Layton and the NDP. In contrast to Layton, Harper was never personally popular, and the Conservatives, it appeared, had made the crucial mistake of convincing Canadians to not vote for the Liberals while failing to give them a reason to vote Conservative beyond “Michael Ignatieff sucks”. Attempts by Ignatieff and the Liberal campaign to stop the bleeding were largely unsuccessful, particularly after a poor debate performance from Ignatieff, and the “natural governing party” soon found itself polling in third place. One week out, while the Conservatives still had a decent lead, it seemed clear that they would find themselves faced with an NDP opposition.
Then, however, came the final week. Not having anticipated Layton and the NDP being even remotely a threat to them, the Conservatives went after Layton, and went after him hard. Hysterical reminders from Conservative candidates that the NDP was socialist blasted the airwaves and multiple Conservative candidates found themselves in hot water over insensitive comments variously directed towards individual NDP candidates, the LGBTQ community, and others that would benefit from an NDP government. While these various controversies hurt the Conservative standing, what’s generally accepted as the beginning of the end for the Conservative campaign is their decision to run an ad in the final week of the campaign directly going after Layton personally. The ad claimed that, in 1996, Layton had been at a Toronto massage parlour when police raided the establishment looking for underage sex workers, and explicitly asked Canadians if this was the man they wanted running their country. Immediately, however, this ad backfired. Canadians, liking Layton to begin with, immediately saw it as crossing a line, and overwhelming accepted Layton’s explanation that there was no wrongdoing in the matter, saying that he simply “went for a massage at a community clinic” and did not return after the police advised him not to.
With voters overwhelmingly disliking the ad and their poll numbers dropping, the Conservatives would eventually pull it from the air, but the damage to them had already been done. While moderates would shift back to the Liberals, pulling them out of the depths they had been facing just a week prior, by and large voters would drift over to Layton and the NDP, and polls showed the party tied with (if not narrowly leading) the Conservatives. On May 9, 2011, the NDP had achieved history; Layton won a majority government of 127 seats to the Conservatives’ 123 and the Liberals’ 56. Leading a shaky minority government, Jack Layton would soon find himself sworn in as Canada’s first New Democratic Prime Minister. Harper, Ignatieff, and Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe would all resign shortly after the election, and it appeared that Canadian politics had entered a new age. Layton’s death of cancer just three months later would put that all into question.
