Operation Sea Lion (1974 Sandhurst Wargame)

[Zincwarrior]

POW's tempo of sinkings should not vary too much from a light cruiser since her secondary armament is her main weapon against small targets. Maybe the tempo of two light cruisers? Her best utility might be drawing heavy air attacks that would otherwise fall on the CL's and DD's. Coastal guns would also engage at any available range since they'd have decent chance of hitting her (unlike hitting a DD, for instance).




A Channel sea battle would no doubt cost the LW dozens of Stukas, but the number of sorties and damage done would also be very bad on the RN side if the RN was foolish enough to challenge off Pas de Calais in daylight.




If the British commit all their reserves to try and crush a bridgehead, then what's left in reserve?

You are forgetting your own timeline. If they "deploy at night" all that means is that the freighters and barges are sitting off the coast at dawn. It will take a day before the second wave can be unloaded. Thats a whole day in the sun, literally sitting (because the freighters HAVE TO BE MOTIONLESS TO DEPLOY TROOPS AND SUPPLIES). Three waves, sitting in motionless freighters, being bombarded by battleships, cruisers, destroyers, corvettes, bombers, submarines, torpedo boats, and any nearby coastal artillery. After all, mobile artillery won't sink a destroyer, but it will sink a freighter.

A more likely scenario is that at dawn, any freighters parked skip town when faced with RN ships shooting at them, trying to run back to port (and getting shot up in process). Even more likely is that, once the shooting starts the night before, the freighter captains realize how utterly idiotic this is and turn their ships around. A few escorts may be damaged but they bail too. The tow ships cut the lines to maneuver and escape. Several thousand barges are now slowly floating to the Artic or Brazil Brazil, however the currents go...

 

[Mike D]

They don't even need to do that. The Brits have hundreds, (arguably thousands depending on when this occurs)of pillboxes built and deployed to block the invasion routes until more formidable formations move into place and begin to squeeze the pockets. The Germans don't even have the benefit of offshore naval bombardment. They are literally throwing themselves into a Kessel.

Oh certainly, having grown up playing around the two just down the road from my house (250 miles plus north of the invasion beaches, covering a bridge over a canal on the Wirral) I know about them too.

Taking a concrete pillbox containing a couple of those knackered old men with a Lewis gun isn't going to be much fun no matter how much of a Feldgrau wearing Tom of Finland poster you might be. Clearing pillboxes with only small arms and grenades right up until 1st Armoured Division smashes into you isn't my idea of a fun summer excursion...

 

[Zincwarrior]

Oh certainly, having grown up playing around the two just down the road from my house (250 miles plus north of the invasion beaches, covering a bridge over a canal on the Wirral) I know about them too.

Taking a concrete pillbox containing a couple of those knackered old men with a Lewis gun isn't going to be much fun no matter how much of a Feldgrau wearing Tom of Finland poster you might be. Clearing pillboxes with only small arms and grenades right up until 1st Armoured Division smashes into you isn't my idea of a fun summer excursion...

Indeed. I imagine any survivors will make it off the beach, but would in reality start surrendering almost immediately. They will have watched their freighters and barges sunk or leave them behind. They will pretty much only have the clothes on their back. The RAF may be bombing them if the frieighters are gone.

 

[baldipaul]

Dude, the Brits want them to surrender. Wafting over the smell of British cuisine is just going to make them fight harder.

The smell of British cuisine at the time could be classed as a war crime. lol

 

[eltf177]

I like to point out that I was being sarcastic.

I knew you were, but sarcastic or not you did bring up a good point. There's just too many things the Luftwaffe needs to do and not nearly enough aircraft, aircrews or ground crews to do them all. And every combat or even operational loss cuts into that already too small capacity...

 

[Ian Hathaway]

I knew you were, but sarcastic or not you did bring up a good point. There's just too many things the Luftwaffe needs to do and not nearly enough aircraft, aircrews or ground crews to do them all. And every combat or even operational loss cuts into that already too small capacity...

The airborne mines were typically delivered by aircraft from Norway, most often the He115 at night. They were deployed in estuaries and other pinch points more to delay than destroy the ships. At times it could take 24 hours to declare the all clear and allow ship movements again. Not saying this is what would happen, in an emergency situation a sacrificial ship would be deployed to rapidly clear a channel so the delay would be minimal. But what I am saying is the aircraft used would be surplus to those used in the Channel and mines laid may add an extra 30-60 minutes to departure times and could cost an old, knackered freighter or two in the process.

 

[Alanith]

Dunno about "severely" degrade - the bottleneck is probably over the beach debarkation, not cross-channel capacity.

The merchant ships would be prime targets. OTOH, they can also move at 12kt or more, so they would be harder to catch given the scale of coastal artillery and minefields they can fall back on.

And the Destroyer chasing it moves at 35 knots. Please tell me how a 12kt freighter will reach the nonexistent minefields or the nonexistent safety of the coastal artillery on the English side of the channel before a destroyer chases it down? Assuming some Hurricane flight doesn't do it in when .303 fire sets off something on deck.

 

[David Floyd]

One thing that bears thinking on is that with the destruction of the fallschirmjaeger, Crete is very likely to hold. That could have interesting impacts on the air war over Ploesti and southern Germany/Italy, I would imagine.

 

[DaveBC]

You understand that, right? That the British do not want their entire war effort coming down to some half trained half clueless brigade commander with no combat experience and no sense of urgency failing to address a situation he's not fully understanding.

Of course I understand that.

I was trying to salvage something of this thread by learning something new to me.

You might try it yourself.

 

[DaveBC]

And the Destroyer chasing it moves at 35 knots. Please tell me how a 12kt freighter will reach the nonexistent minefields or the nonexistent safety of the coastal artillery on the English side of the channel before a destroyer chases it down? Assuming some Hurricane flight doesn't do it in when .303 fire sets off something on deck.

Ooh, it's math time.

If a barge sets out from Cherbourg at 1100 travelling 4 knots and a destroyer sets out from Plymouth at 1400 travelling 35 knots, at what time does Admiral Raeder offer his resignation to the Fuhrer?

 

[Zincwarrior]

Ooh, it's math time.

If a barge sets out from Cherbourg at 1100 travelling 4 knots and a destroyer sets out from Plymouth at 1400 travelling 35 knots, at what time does Admiral Raeder offer his resignation to the Fuhrer?

That depends, is Adm Raedar part of the massive KM fleet escorting barges/freighters and is now newly residing in Davy Jones' locker, or is he in Berlin at the time?
If so, I might suggest he take a quick - and permanent - vacation to Switzerland.

 

[Alanith]

Ooh, it's math time.

If a barge sets out from Cherbourg at 1100 travelling 4 knots and a destroyer sets out from Plymouth at 1400 travelling 35 knots, at what time does Admiral Raeder offer his resignation to the Fuhrer?

He asks the post office employee at the docks to send the letter to Berlin before stepping aboard a ferry bound for Sweden, of course.

 

[alfredtuomi]

Dunno about "severely" degrade - the bottleneck is probably over the beach debarkation, not cross-channel capacity.

The merchant ships would be prime targets. OTOH, they can also move at 12kt or more, so they would be harder to catch given the scale of coastal artillery and minefields they can fall back on.

the transports move at 0 knots when they are anchored for 2 or 3 days off the landing beaches and the heavy gear is not scheduled to be landed until the second day after it is off loaded from the transports with the second and then third echelons of the "first " wave to the surviving barges.
so no coastal guns till late in the second day or even the third day.and as for the mine fields the RN can easily sweep enough out of the way faster than the german forces can lay them.

 

[alfredtuomi]

Sorry, I thought a bunch of overage undertrained reservists lacking proper leadership and equipment were going to stop them on the beach while the high command used satellite imagery to figure out which of the 100 landing reports were false or could wait, vs. the few that needed the reserves committed immediately?

so you are referring to the home guard who are no doubt veterans of the first war so range in age from early forties to early sixties and have no doubt also spent the intervening time doing manual labour and are in better shape than most 20 somethings these days.they know the value of digging in,how to fire a lee enfield and have been on the receiving end of far more than will show up on the beach.yup they will be a pushover.NOT

 

[hopper2cool]

Even if a full division or two land together in SE England how long would it take to move off the beach? Wouldn't the plan be to wait for more reinforcements and supplies? Or "dig in"? Couldn't the same time Germany needs to get organized be used by the UK? If a plan requires 85 things to go right that doesn't seem like a good plan.

 

[Mike D]

Even if a full division or two land together in SE England how long would it take to move off the beach? Wouldn't the plan be to wait for more reinforcements and supplies? Or "dig in"? Couldn't the same time Germany needs to get organized be used by the UK? If a plan requires 85 things to go right that doesn't seem like a good plan.

There's Germany's biggest problem - they don't have the resources to make up for any setback. In 1944 the Allies failed to take Caen but thanks to their overwhelming sea and air domination and some technical innovation they were able to keep their troops supplied and continue the fight.

Germany don't have that domination in the air and are hugely outmatched at sea - even if they manage to get their first wave ashore by some miracle they just don't have the resources for them to take the time and use the material needed to consolidate and fight their way out of their beachhead. The longer the fight goes on the worse their supply situation gets as the RN puts wave after wave of light forces into the Channel day and night along with whatever battleships and cruisers they're willing to risk. There's no PLUTO for Germany, no Mulberries, no massive fleet of cargo ships, just an ever diminishing number of barges and a tiny number of proper ships with virtually no way to defend them.

 

[Jellico]

How vulnerable the landing zone is to ship attack depends on whether the flanking mine barriers could be established and maintained, and how fast shore batteries can be set up to cover them.

Good point.

How long till Abdiel, Latona, Manxman, and Welshman can lay their eggs off the beachhead?

 

[eltf177]

The airborne mines were typically delivered by aircraft from Norway, most often the He115 at night. They were deployed in estuaries and other pinch points more to delay than destroy the ships. At times it could take 24 hours to declare the all clear and allow ship movements again. Not saying this is what would happen, in an emergency situation a sacrificial ship would be deployed to rapidly clear a channel so the delay would be minimal. But what I am saying is the aircraft used would be surplus to those used in the Channel and mines laid may add an extra 30-60 minutes to departure times and could cost an old, knackered freighter or two in the process.

Hadn't thought about that, and you're right that they were better used to choke off harbors...

 

[Alanith]

And the Destroyer chasing it moves at 35 knots. Please tell me how a 12kt freighter will reach the nonexistent minefields or the nonexistent safety of the coastal artillery on the English side of the channel before a destroyer chases it down? Assuming some Hurricane flight doesn't do it in when .303 fire sets off something on deck.

Actually now that I think of it, a bunch of panicked civilians fleeing from a destroyer are more likely to RUN INTO THEIR OWN MINEFIELDS then reach safety behind them.

 

[hipper]

Agreed but in my opinion and from what I've read they would wait for optimal conditions, ie low cloud, rain or such so they minimises the risk of air attack before committing in force. After all this is late September so they won't have to wait long.

no they attack at night,