Despite the evident* absurdity of repeating a failed SeaLion (or even launching the USM once) wor Glen does have a point. German options after the Fall of France were constrained by the refusal of the British Commonwealth and Empire to make peace. Launching Barbarossa was unwise while Britain was still an active belligerent but delaying that would be risky. And destroying the USSR to absorb its western territories was the whole point of Nazi rule.
Kershaw in Fateful Choices goes through the rationale for not following the Mediterranean/Atlantic strategy recommended by Glen. It seems to me that in the event of a Failed USM that Hitler would have even less success in coercing Franco, Vichy France and Mussolini into adopting that strategy.
Which leaves only making peace or at least obtaining an Armistice on British, rather than German terms. Pie in the sky after the Battle of Britain and Operation Compass. Unless by some means Churchill was removed and the High Tories gained power. Say late December 1940 or early January 1941. Which would make an interesting time line but isn't helping Glen's cause.
Anyone know of a air/naval wargame that could model potential German and British losses from a September 1940 USM? Especially among the tugs and barges as this would limit the ability of Germany to rebuild for a second attempt.
Secondly, does anyone know how these losses would crimp German production over the following year? Plus the relative cost in resources ( labor, capital goods, raw materials etc) of building Siebel Ferries etc. for USM 2,3,...n. Ditto U-boats, destroyers, light escorts, fighters and bombers.
As against those for tanks, guns, etc. for the Heer.
* To everyone but Glen239