November 1, 1940 the War Department wakes up

[CalBear]

Here is a scenario inspired by Riain’s TBD thread.


POD# One is on November 1, 1940.

On 1/1/40, the U.S. undergoes an epiphany, realizing that it is virtually certain to be at war within a year, probably with both the Reich and Japan. Weapons production, not just procurement, but actual production, is literally pushed forward by a year across the board for everything from G.I socks to 16”/50 Gun tubes and everything in between. The change doesn’t really have any impact on the other Pacific combatants, since they are already at war, but Stalin does order changes in production for weapons in his factories as well.

This results in the F4U Corsair reaching squadron Service with the Marine Corps in July of 1941, The TBF Avenger torpedo bomber making it to the fleet in squadron quantity by August 1941, the P-38 Lightning in fall of 1940, P-47 Thunderbolts in June of 1941, and so on. The same occurs for other weapons, from Garands (with Winchester receiving it’s contract for 65,000 rifles in December of 1940, just after the rifle’s teething problems are resolved, rather than in December 1941) to carriers and battleship, where dockyard put on second, or even third shifts 13 months in advance. (It is important to note that the dates of entering service for each aircraft simply reflect an increased rate of production, not a miracle of ironing out problems months or years earlier, frex: the F4U is still not carrier qualifed due to landing gear issues)

Construction contracts are also accelerated for defensive works in the Philippines, on Guam, Wake, Midway, etc.

This results in the following changes:

1) The USMC is fully equipped with Garands at the outbreak of the war.

2) 60% of the water cooled M2 .50 cal machine guns are replaced by their air-cooled cousins.

3) On December 7, 1941 the AAF aircraft on Oahu are as follows:
a. 12 P-36 Mohawks (replacing the P-26 IOTL)
b. 41 P-40C Kittyhawks (“ “ P-36 “”)
c. 97 P-38E Lightnings (‘ “ P-40B “)
d. 11 P-47B (“ “ P-40C “)
e. 33 B-17D (“ “ B-18 “)
f. 12 B-17E (“ “ B-17D)
g. 13 A-20C Havoc (the version equipped to carry torpedoes externally) “ “ B-20A “)

4) Wake’s defensive upgrade are complete. Full squadron of 24 F4U on Island (half having arrived previous day off USS Enterprise). Full USMC coastal defense battalion (900 men) is assigned to Island and in place. Midway is expecting 12 F4U from USS Lexington on Sunday morning

5) Guam is now defended by 2nd Marine division, including light battalion of Sherman tanks. Two VMF Squadrons of F4U make up air defenses with squadron of VMB SBD for scouting.

6) Philippines Defenses have been upgraded to that expected by November 1, 1942 both in fortifications and in manpower. Additional two divisions of regular U.S. Army troops, including two regiments of Sherman tanks are in Bataan area. Munitions & food supplies are as planned (sufficient for what was believed to be six months combat, in actuality the munitions are sufficient for roughly 90 days high intensity warfare). Changes in Philippine air wings are the same as planned for March 1942 with the same upgrade as at Pearl Harbor (48 P-40C, 172 P-38E, 24 P-47B, 36 B-17D, 144 B-17E)

This sets the stage for POD # Two.

The late November War Warning messages to General Short and Admiral Kimmel as interpreted as Washington had expected. Short still follows the exhortation not to alarm civilians, so AAA guns are not deployed onto private property outside of the base, but the 31 emplacements within the perimeter are partly manned with ammunition stored in ready boxes. Aircraft are dispersed to secondary fields and in revetments when provided. A total of 24 fighters are flying dawn patrol each morning (eight flights of four) with an additional 24 ready for takeoff (fueled, armed, warmed up) at Wheeler Field, 12 at Bellows and 8 at Haleiwa, or roughly 1/3 of assigned strength. One of four ships in the harbor has “ready” condition set for AAA batteries, with other vessels having AAA ammo in ready lockers. PBY aircraft are also flying 360 degree patrols along with some army bombers.

Last POD (# 3)

USS Ward report of sinking enemy submarine at 06:34 hrs is accepted as genuine, resulting full alert.

Question 1 – What is the result of the Kido Butai attack under these circumstances

Question 2 – Does Wake still fall? Guam?

Question 3 – What happens in the Philippines? (This probably the hardest to predict thanks to MacArthur’s presence)

Question 4 – Where does the war go for February 1942 onward?

Opinions? Condemnations? Answers?

 

[Markus]

I don´t think it´s possible to speed things up like this, that late.

The TBF was introduced after little more than 1,5 years- very quick compared to pre-war pace and Curtiss was also producing and developing at a high speed. The very well protected P-40C entered production in March 41.

The P-38 was a bitch –technically speaking- but if the complicated and expensive turbochargers are replaced with cheap and proven British superchargers you might be able to speed things up.

P-47 in 1941? No way. In OTL the things did not see combat before April 1943. Impossible to get the plane into service 1,5 years earlier. The F4U falls into the same category. It had a lot more problems than just not being ok´ed for CV-landings, engine troubles and all sorts of cylinders leaking that were not supposed to.

There were no P-26 on PH, they were on the PI.

Wake can be defended easily. Kimmel had three Marine Defence Battalions. He just needs to send two or the strongest to Wake instead of the weakest. And that bring me to the real problem.

The US military had everything it needed to successfully defend Wake, Midway and PH – except for a sense of being in danger. Nobody took the little yellow man with the bamboo planes, small calibre rifles and bandy legs seriously. Kimmel´s and Short´s utter lack of initiative is the best evidence. A General and an Admiral who do nothing but to wait for Washington’s orders –you got to be kidding me? That high up the chain of command one is to make up his own mind and take action independantly. If you want to safe PH, change the leaders, not the equipment:



June 1941: Brig.Gen. Becker is temporarily replacing MG Martin as CO of the Army´s air units. BG Becker is doing something unusual, he´s making his plans based on the opponents known capabilities, rather than his perceived intentions.

• Threat identification and assessment:

Targets: First and foremost the US Pacific Fleet, secondly units protecting it.

-sabotage: Highly likely, but limited effects. Particularly the Fleet is safe from it.
-submarine attack: concerns the USN
-carriers based air raid: worst case scenario, not likely, but possible

• countermeasures:

Sabotage: Barb wire, lighting the perimeter, increased patrolling
Air raid:
-recon: Upon asking BG Becker learns the USN is concentrating its limited number of PBY´s in the southeast, therefore B-17 and B-18 are watching the northeast sector as part of their routine training ops.
-Dispersion of planes and use of camouflage, construction of dummy planes: The former makes sabotage easier, but the latter can be implemented without problems.
-readiness: 24/7 high readiness is not possible. The timing of an attack has to be narrowed down. The main target of an air raid would be the Fleet. Analysis of Fleet movements show a month long patter of the Fleet returning on Friday or Saturday and never leaving PH before Monday. Logical conclusion: A hypothetical attack will occur on a Sunday.
Now USN carrier Admirals and pilots are being contacted to tell the Army how they would attack a major naval base. Answer: Keep your distance on D-Day minus one to avoid detection, steam at full speed to the target after dusk, launch planes at dawn.

The rest is simply math. Assuming the speed and range is Japanese CVs is similar to American ones an attacking fleet will be y mile out on D-1 and x mile on D-Day. Based on sunrise, estimated time to launch the planes and their speed and range the planes will hit the target z minutes after sunrise.
In the following months, as the US-Japanese tension rise, the readiness of the Hawaiian Air Force is gradually increased until it reaches the level below:

December 6th, evening:

The regular fight of B-17 and B-18 on recon returns. The search of the northeast approaches has come up negative.

December 7th, before dawn:

Several O-47B take off to be position for a search 150 to 200 miles off PH at dawn.
Disgruntled airmen start moving the planes off the runway, where they have to be put at night because of anti-sabotage measures ordered by higher ups. The fuelling and arming starts at dawn. Two fighters per squadron are kept ready for immediate take off; two more are ready with the pilots allowed to remain in the officer’s mess. The men are woken up. At weekends only half of the squadron’s personnel get´s to leave the base in the evening, the rest has to remain until the party goers have sobered up.

December 7th, dawn:

The fighter squadron´s AA-weapons are being manned.
An O-47B actually finds Kido Butai, the observer send a message, but it arrives only scrambled and before it can be repeated the Japanese CAP get´s the slow observation plane.
06:00 hrs: the recon plane launched by cruiser Chikuma is overlooked by radar operators.
06:15 hrs: two radar station report contact in the south, Air Corps liaison personnel – radar and AA-units are not under BG Becker’s command – call the Information Center. Lt. Kermit Tyler takes and the call, and as it fits the profile alerts Wheeler: Incoming unidentified airplanes! A pair of P-40B takes off to investigate
06:45 hrs: three other radar stations pick up a contact in the north A pair of P-36A fighters are send to investigate
07:20: The P-36A make contact and report … more than 100 Japanese airplanes!
07:22: The 18 fighters on standy-by take off, everybody else is running to their planes. Fighter pilots to intercept the enemy, bomber pilots on Hickam to get their planes out of harms way. Coast Artillery AA-units and the USN are informed of the confirmed presence of Japanese warplanes near PH. ETA: no later than 08:00!

With at least 100(out of 129 total) P-40(87) and P-36(39) in the air by 07:50 the Japanese run the gauntlet. Although more manoeuvrable, the Zero´s pilots are shocked at the little damage their 7.7mm machine guns on the P-40s(20mm guns are inaccurate and have little ammo). And being outnumbered by 2:1 means they can´t stop all attackers anyway. As a result the dive and torpedo bombers suffer the first losses. But once they reach the port it get really ugly. Every AA-gun is cocked and loaded and the planes fly into a hailstorm of bullets. And they have to do so at a lower speed and at a lower altitude than on the open sea, because otherwise the torpedoes would sink to deep and hit the bottom of the shallow port, regardless of technical modification on the torpedoes. The result of the attack is devastating, but it´s the attacker who are devastated. The combination of low speed and altitude makes them the perfect target and the AA(weak by 1944 standards) blows them out of the air one by one.
USS California is hit once and stays afloat, Oklahoma is unlucky, she’s hit three times, starts to capsize but counter flooding means she settles on her keel. West Virginia is hit twice and stays afloat. Nevada was the only BB to get under way and has already left the port, she escapes unharmed. The remaining BBs are hit by bombs, but since all are on general quarters they suffer minor damage.

The first P-40´s landing for a quick ammo an fuel refill are being held on the ground. In the Information Centre Lt. Tyler has remembered the O-47´s garbled message and since the time and the vector match that of the Japanese planes it´s highly likely that plane found the attackers. The IC orders all B-17s to search this and the neighbouring sectors, while the P-40´s are turned into “B”-40s. Test conducted in the previous months have shown B-17 are useless for attacking ships and since the USAAF has rejected the demands for A-24(SBD) dive bombers BG Becker had his crew chiefs put bomb racks on the P-40 B fighters and let his pilots train glide bombing all fall.

20 or so B-40s take off even before the second wave arrives and fly into the area the O-47 vanished. Once the B-17s confirm the position they increase the speed. In the meantime B-17 distract the Japanese CAP by making ineffective but uninterceptalbe bombing runs at high altitude. As a result the P-40´s make their approach undetected, they go into a short dive to pick up speed and execute a textbook high speed glide bombing attack on tow CVs. Shokaku is hit three times, Ziukaku twice. They don´t burn, because the hangars re empty, but they can no longer land or launch planes. The P-40s escape without any losses.

Meanwhile the second Japanese wave has left PH and a second American wave is made ready. Let´s be pessimistic here. 110 of the 129 fighters were ready on Dec 7th. 60 have been lost or damaged so they can not fly, at least not 200 miles over the ocean, so the second wave is around 30 planes strong and a mixed force of P-36 and P-40s. all planes get bombs, but some are designated fighters and they will jettison the bombs in case the Japanese CAP intercepts them. Which they do! But the dozen B-40s is well enough protected to make it all the way to Kaga, who gets half a dozen hits in her superstructure. The fighters, especially the poorly protected P-36 have suffered badly.

The first- now third- wave is not able to find the Japanese again and attack Kaga instead, or rather the two CAs escorting her. She is not considered a worthy target, because she is a smoking, limping cripple. The P-40 pilots are sure Navy will get her anyway. But the Navy does not get her.
A B-18 pilot has heard about all the failed high altitude attacks, so he concludes he needs to go a bit lower. Close to dusk Capt. William H. Kelso junior takes “California Girl” down to 300 feet, sneaks up to Kaga and put two 1,000 lb bombs an arms length away from her into the water. To his surprise Kaga stops, lists and capsizes – the bombs have detonated so close to her hull, they have ripped her open like torpedoes.

The search by Lexington and Enterprise for the remaining CVs is unsuccessful. Eventually it´s broken off west of Midway and the CVs are ordered to continue to Wake. The 18 Vindicator dive bombers meant for Midway and a dozen fighters are to be dropped of on Wake. The whole operation is uneventful, but it saves Wake. When the unescorted Japanese bomber attack Wake on the next day Vindicators on patrol see them, warn Wake and 15 instead of three Wildcats intercept the bombers. A few make it home and the have to report something far more terrifying than an 80% casualty rate: The attackers had NAVY markings!

Tokyo is informed and the HQ immediately cancels the planned invasion of Wake, the retreating CVs are ordered to avoid Wake, because US carriers are already waiting for them there. By the time they are likely gone, the Japanese CVs are well pat Wake and they can not return, because they are needed for the invasion of the DEI. Saratoga and the relief convoy will not be later than in OTL, so the considerable reinforcements will make it to Wake undisturbed and after that any Japanese invasion attempt fails by default. They just don´t have the infantry to beat that many Marines and they don´t even have a clue they don’t have enough infantry.

 

[CalBear]

I don´t think it´s possible to speed things up like this, that late.

The TBF was introduced after little more than 1,5 years- very quick compared to pre-war pace and Curtiss was also producing and developing at a high speed. The very well protected P-40C entered production in March 41.

The P-38 was a bitch –technically speaking- but if the complicated and expensive turbochargers are replaced with cheap and proven British superchargers you might be able to speed things up.

The P-38 was already in service in December of 1941. All the POD does is up the production rate.


This is the official Air Force history site:
http://www.af.mil/news/airman/0603/secret.html

It indicates that there were P-38's in Alaska on 12/1/07 (something that, prior to researching the scenario, I had not known. I was under the impression that all P-38's were still in the 'States at the time

P-47 in 1941? No way. In OTL the things did not see combat before April 1943. Impossible to get the plane into service 1,5 years earlier. The F4U falls into the same category. It had a lot more problems than just not being ok´ed for CV-landings, engine troubles and all sorts of cylinders leaking that were not supposed to.

Again, the P-47 could easily have been ready earlier than IOTL, as was the production model P-47B was coming off the production line in May of 1942. The delay in the P-47 seeing service in the ETO was more an AAF issue than the aircraft.

The F4U (and P-47) engine issues had been sorted by mid 1941 IOTL (the R-2800 had been in use in the B-26 for well over a year, the same engine used in both the P-47 & F4U) , full scale production of the type didn't begin until June of '42. There is no compelling reason why this couldn't have been achieved by October, perhaps even September, of 1941, had the true reality of the situation been foremost in the War and Navy Departments mind this could have been many months earlier.

This might be good place to talk a bit about engines. Both the Cyclone and Double Wasp experienced a sudden, fairly massive increase in Horse power beginning in December of 1941. This was not due to a sudden breakthrough in technology, it was because the War & Navy Department decided that it was now the time to pony up extra money for very high octane fuel (the higher the octane number, the more costly the fuel) that allowed for much higher compression engines. Very high compression engines were disliked by the pre-war American military procurement departments as they had a shorter lifespan. Peacetime engines were supposed to last for years, even the life of the airframe, once the war began, that false economy fell away, helping to explain how the R-2800 grew from 1,800 hp in 1940 to as much as 2,800 in 1944.

This sort of mindset, not "will it work in combat, let us kill the enemy and get our people home" but "will it last for ten years and work almost as well IF we need it in wartime" was one of the major stumbling blocks to American success in the early months of the war.

There were no P-26 on PH, they were on the PI.

I believe that there were 6 P-26A & 6 P-26B Peashooters at Wheeler on 12/7/41

http://www.ww2pacific.com/aaf41.html

Wake can be defended easily. Kimmel had three Marine Defence Battalions. He just needs to send two or the strongest to Wake instead of the weakest. And that bring me to the real problem.

The US military had everything it needed to successfully defend Wake, Midway and PH – except for a sense of being in danger. Nobody took the little yellow man with the bamboo planes, small calibre rifles and bandy legs seriously. Kimmel´s and Short´s utter lack of initiative is the best evidence. A General and an Admiral who do nothing but to wait for Washington’s orders –you got to be kidding me? That high up the chain of command one is to make up his own mind and take action independantly. If you want to safe PH, change the leaders, not the equipment:



June 1941: Brig.Gen. Becker is temporarily replacing MG Martin as CO of the Army´s air units. BG Becker is doing something unusual, he´s making his plans based on the opponents known capabilities, rather than his perceived intentions.

• Threat identification and assessment:

Targets: First and foremost the US Pacific Fleet, secondly units protecting it.

-sabotage: Highly likely, but limited effects. Particularly the Fleet is safe from it.
-submarine attack: concerns the USN
-carriers based air raid: worst case scenario, not likely, but possible

• countermeasures:

Sabotage: Barb wire, lighting the perimeter, increased patrolling
Air raid:
-recon: Upon asking BG Becker learns the USN is concentrating its limited number of PBY´s in the southeast, therefore B-17 and B-18 are watching the northeast sector as part of their routine training ops.
-Dispersion of planes and use of camouflage, construction of dummy planes: The former makes sabotage easier, but the latter can be implemented without problems.
-readiness: 24/7 high readiness is not possible. The timing of an attack has to be narrowed down. The main target of an air raid would be the Fleet. Analysis of Fleet movements show a month long patter of the Fleet returning on Friday or Saturday and never leaving PH before Monday. Logical conclusion: A hypothetical attack will occur on a Sunday.
Now USN carrier Admirals and pilots are being contacted to tell the Army how they would attack a major naval base. Answer: Keep your distance on D-Day minus one to avoid detection, steam at full speed to the target after dusk, launch planes at dawn.

The rest is simply math. Assuming the speed and range is Japanese CVs is similar to American ones an attacking fleet will be y mile out on D-1 and x mile on D-Day. Based on sunrise, estimated time to launch the planes and their speed and range the planes will hit the target z minutes after sunrise.
In the following months, as the US-Japanese tension rise, the readiness of the Hawaiian Air Force is gradually increased until it reaches the level below:

December 6th, evening:

The regular fight of B-17 and B-18 on recon returns. The search of the northeast approaches has come up negative.

December 7th, before dawn:

Several O-47B take off to be position for a search 150 to 200 miles off PH at dawn.
Disgruntled airmen start moving the planes off the runway, where they have to be put at night because of anti-sabotage measures ordered by higher ups. The fuelling and arming starts at dawn. Two fighters per squadron are kept ready for immediate take off; two more are ready with the pilots allowed to remain in the officer’s mess. The men are woken up. At weekends only half of the squadron’s personnel get´s to leave the base in the evening, the rest has to remain until the party goers have sobered up.

December 7th, dawn:

The fighter squadron´s AA-weapons are being manned.
An O-47B actually finds Kido Butai, the observer send a message, but it arrives only scrambled and before it can be repeated the Japanese CAP get´s the slow observation plane.
06:00 hrs: the recon plane launched by cruiser Chikuma is overlooked by radar operators.
06:15 hrs: two radar station report contact in the south, Air Corps liaison personnel – radar and AA-units are not under BG Becker’s command – call the Information Center. Lt. Kermit Tyler takes and the call, and as it fits the profile alerts Wheeler: Incoming unidentified airplanes! A pair of P-40B takes off to investigate
06:45 hrs: three other radar stations pick up a contact in the north A pair of P-36A fighters are send to investigate
07:20: The P-36A make contact and report … more than 100 Japanese airplanes!
07:22: The 18 fighters on standy-by take off, everybody else is running to their planes. Fighter pilots to intercept the enemy, bomber pilots on Hickam to get their planes out of harms way. Coast Artillery AA-units and the USN are informed of the confirmed presence of Japanese warplanes near PH. ETA: no later than 08:00!

With at least 100(out of 129 total) P-40(87) and P-36(39) in the air by 07:50 the Japanese run the gauntlet. Although more manoeuvrable, the Zero´s pilots are shocked at the little damage their 7.7mm machine guns on the P-40s(20mm guns are inaccurate and have little ammo). And being outnumbered by 2:1 means they can´t stop all attackers anyway. As a result the dive and torpedo bombers suffer the first losses. But once they reach the port it get really ugly. Every AA-gun is cocked and loaded and the planes fly into a hailstorm of bullets. And they have to do so at a lower speed and at a lower altitude than on the open sea, because otherwise the torpedoes would sink to deep and hit the bottom of the shallow port, regardless of technical modification on the torpedoes. The result of the attack is devastating, but it´s the attacker who are devastated. The combination of low speed and altitude makes them the perfect target and the AA(weak by 1944 standards) blows them out of the air one by one.
USS California is hit once and stays afloat, Oklahoma is unlucky, she’s hit three times, starts to capsize but counter flooding means she settles on her keel. West Virginia is hit twice and stays afloat. Nevada was the only BB to get under way and has already left the port, she escapes unharmed. The remaining BBs are hit by bombs, but since all are on general quarters they suffer minor damage.

The first P-40´s landing for a quick ammo an fuel refill are being held on the ground. In the Information Centre Lt. Tyler has remembered the O-47´s garbled message and since the time and the vector match that of the Japanese planes it´s highly likely that plane found the attackers. The IC orders all B-17s to search this and the neighbouring sectors, while the P-40´s are turned into “B”-40s. Test conducted in the previous months have shown B-17 are useless for attacking ships and since the USAAF has rejected the demands for A-24(SBD) dive bombers BG Becker had his crew chiefs put bomb racks on the P-40 B fighters and let his pilots train glide bombing all fall.

20 or so B-40s take off even before the second wave arrives and fly into the area the O-47 vanished. Once the B-17s confirm the position they increase the speed. In the meantime B-17 distract the Japanese CAP by making ineffective but uninterceptalbe bombing runs at high altitude. As a result the P-40´s make their approach undetected, they go into a short dive to pick up speed and execute a textbook high speed glide bombing attack on tow CVs. Shokaku is hit three times, Ziukaku twice. They don´t burn, because the hangars re empty, but they can no longer land or launch planes. The P-40s escape without any losses.

Actually, based on this scenario, the survivors of the 1st attack wave that hit Pearl Harbor would be below decks being rearmed and refueled.

Meanwhile the second Japanese wave has left PH and a second American wave is made ready. Let´s be pessimistic here. 110 of the 129 fighters were ready on Dec 7th. 60 have been lost or damaged so they can not fly, at least not 200 miles over the ocean, so the second wave is around 30 planes strong and a mixed force of P-36 and P-40s. all planes get bombs, but some are designated fighters and they will jettison the bombs in case the Japanese CAP intercepts them. Which they do! But the dozen B-40s is well enough protected to make it all the way to Kaga, who gets half a dozen hits in her superstructure. The fighters, especially the poorly protected P-36 have suffered badly.

The first- now third- wave is not able to find the Japanese again and attack Kaga instead, or rather the two CAs escorting her. She is not considered a worthy target, because she is a smoking, limping cripple. The P-40 pilots are sure Navy will get her anyway. But the Navy does not get her.
A B-18 pilot has heard about all the failed high altitude attacks, so he concludes he needs to go a bit lower. Close to dusk Capt. William H. Kelso junior takes “California Girl” down to 300 feet, sneaks up to Kaga and put two 1,000 lb bombs an arms length away from her into the water. To his surprise Kaga stops, lists and capsizes – the bombs have detonated so close to her hull, they have ripped her open like torpedoes.

The search by Lexington and Enterprise for the remaining CVs is unsuccessful. Eventually it´s broken off west of Midway and the CVs are ordered to continue to Wake. The 18 Vindicator dive bombers meant for Midway and a dozen fighters are to be dropped of on Wake. The whole operation is uneventful, but it saves Wake. When the unescorted Japanese bomber attack Wake on the next day Vindicators on patrol see them, warn Wake and 15 instead of three Wildcats intercept the bombers. A few make it home and the have to report something far more terrifying than an 80% casualty rate: The attackers had NAVY markings!

Tokyo is informed and the HQ immediately cancels the planned invasion of Wake, the retreating CVs are ordered to avoid Wake, because US carriers are already waiting for them there. By the time they are likely gone, the Japanese CVs are well pat Wake and they can not return, because they are needed for the invasion of the DEI. Saratoga and the relief convoy will not be later than in OTL, so the considerable reinforcements will make it to Wake undisturbed and after that any Japanese invasion attempt fails by default. They just don´t have the infantry to beat that many Marines and they don´t even have a clue they don’t have enough infantry.

An interesting scenario. I see some holes, but overall fun.

What is your opinion regarding the Guam & Philippine attacks?

 

[Markus]

1. Yes, the P-38,P-47 and F4U were in production, but it was a very small scale production, one plane per month in case of P-47 and F4U, becasue the early models had all sorts of bugs. The P-38 in production was the insatisfactory D version and according to my info all -one Pursuit Group- are in the states.
The F4U´s prototype was just being test flown in Nov.1940, the P-47´s prototype wasn´t ready before May 41 and it had real engine problems. The P-47B -five planes were made as test planes in March- lead to the production being stopped in May to make needed changes.

Your are right about the returning planes being on the deck and in the hangars, but they have no ammo and little fuel left. So no change.

IMO Guam is worthless and indefensible with the limited means. The PI can be safed easily if the Commanding General accelerates the training of native Philipine ground forces.

 

[Riain]

Ahhh the magic P word. The programme you describe could be tacked on to the Hemisphere defence plan.

Japanese spies in Hawaii would notice more flying etc and by late '41 Pearl mightn't look like the juicy target it was IOTL. But the Japanese were backed into a corner and had to do something.

 

[Temujin]

Nice idea, but a bit wanked. 'On 1/1/40, the U.S. undergoes an epiphany', why?

 

[CalBear]

Nice idea, but a bit wanked. 'On 1/1/40, the U.S. undergoes an epiphany', why?

Because it seemed as good a day as any?

Actually, as I mentioned, the scenario & POD are based on Riain's TBD thread, where the idea is that the U.S. figures out pretty much the same thing, albeit not on that exact date.

The date is obviously pulled out of the air, but the concept itself works. It could have been June 22, 1940, when Congress passed the Nation Defense Tax Act or July 20, 1940, the date the Congress passed the Two Ocean Navy Act that effectively gave the Navy Department a blank check to purchase up to 4,500 "useful naval airplanes" or September 2, 1940, when the deal for the destroyers for bases deal came about or September 27, 1940, when the "Three Powers Act" was signed by Germeny, Italy, and Japan. Any of these dates/events could (more properly SHOULD) have thrown the War Department & Navy Department into overdrive.

Once a date is selected, the rest is pretty much as I describe. For the programs mentioned, all that is really needed to have these aircraft up and running as outlined on 12/7/41 (save the TBF, which probably can't be in wide squadron service before March 1942), is a boot in the rear. The same is true for the defensive works on the Pacific bases, munition, supply, and small arms purchases, and the increase in construction pace for the new warships; Congress wrote the check, you got the funds deposited, spend the damned money.

A wank? A bit of one, sure, but it seems fairly plausable. Overall, we are talking about construction of about 600 aircraft, 70,000 rifles, 10,000 machine guns, and some common sense. The industrial output is already easily available, even without the extreme effort seen after the war started in ernest; American factories are still underutilized and there is plenty of workforce still available. The specific POD's related to Pearl Harbor are even less difficult, all Washington had to do was add a paragraph or two to the orders sent IOTL or General Short simply takes a more pre-active approach, resulting Admiral Kimmel doing the same. (Kimmel, as was policy, followed the Army's lead related to the defense of the fleet while in harbor. Defense of the ships in port was primarily the Army's job.)

 

[Dean_the_Young]

Technically, if the US defense preparations in the Philipines were drastically sped up, wouldn't that also have meant that the Philippines would have been given their official independence by that point? I'm no expert, but I was under the impression that the Philippines were to be given their independence once the defenses were finished over the islands. So we have an independent (if US-allied and US-garrisoned) Philippines.

 

[CalBear]

Technically, if the US defense preparations in the Philipines were drastically sped up, wouldn't that also have meant that the Philippines would have been given their official independence by that point? I'm no expert, but I was under the impression that the Philippines were to be given their independence once the defenses were finished over the islands. So we have an independent (if US-allied and US-garrisoned) Philippines.

Possibly, although the U.S. had set a date in 1945 for the granting of Philippine independence after consultation with the Philippine territorial government.

 

[Dean_the_Young]

Possibly, although the U.S. had set a date in 1945 for the granting of Philippine independence after consultation with the Philippine territorial government.

And I believe that consultation had a good deal to do with defense preparations.

The big butterfly I'm thinking of is that of an entirely revamped Command and Control set up with a different Chain of Command and such. A moderate shakeup could have major implications, no?

 

[CalBear]

And I believe that consultation had a good deal to do with defense preparations.

The big butterfly I'm thinking of is that of an entirely revamped Command and Control set up with a different Chain of Command and such. A moderate shakeup could have major implications, no?

A huge effect, especially if it managed to find way to get rid of MacArthur. Unfortunately, I doubt that there are butterflies nearly that large available.

 

[Kevin Renner]

Nice idea, but a bit wanked. 'On 1/1/40, the U.S. undergoes an epiphany', why?

Maybe the cruiser Atlanta gets torpedoed but does not sink by a German U-boat in the North Atlantic?

 

[CalBear]

Here is the actual text of the Act (Tydings/McDuff) that was designed to grant Independence to the Philippines.

http://www.chanrobles.com/tydingsmcduffieact.htm

Parts of it are, even by 1934 standards, remarkably racist. A "Filippino repatriation" law that sprouted from it was so bad that it was later held to be unconstitutional.

An interesting, albeit disturbing, feature is that, unlike any other long held U.S. territory until that time, no consideration was made to providing Statehood if that was the choice of the people of the Islands (even today, the Puerto Rican referendums on the matter ALWAYS offer Statehood, Independence & Status Quo). You can come to your own conclusions as to way, but the law that limited immigration from the PI to FIFTY people a year is a decent clue.

 

[DuQuense]

-readiness: 24/7 high readiness is not possible. The timing of an attack has to be narrowed down. The main target of an air raid would be the Fleet. Analysis of Fleet movements show a month long patter of the Fleet returning on Friday or Saturday and never leaving PH before Monday. Logical conclusion: A hypothetical attack will occur on a Sunday.
Now USN carrier Admirals and pilots are being contacted to tell the Army how they would attack a major naval base. Answer: Keep your distance on D-Day minus one to avoid detection, steam at full speed to the target after dusk, launch planes at dawn.

Not needed, The War games in 1939, and 1940 had already shown how a attacker could readily devastate Pearl's defenses.
Both attacks by the Navy had been on Sundays, just for this reason.

A huge effect, especially if it managed to find way to get rid of MacArthur. Unfortunately, I doubt that there are butterflies nearly that large available.

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Contents
I Shall Return
John Mina
Manila, December 8, 1941 3:40 a.m.

Brigadier General Dwight D. Eisenhower was shaken from a deep sleep by a relentless cacophony. He sat up instantly when he realized it was the telephone on the nightstand. "What is it?" he barked, trying to sound more annoyed than alarmed.

"It's the Japs, General!" screamed the reply. "They just hit Pearl Harbor!"

There was a brief pause as the general tried to absorb the full impact. "Spence, is that you? Settle down! Is it confirmed or just another one of those bullshit rumors going around?"

General Spencer B. Akin of the Signal Corps tried to respond with some composure. "It's on the wire service and one of my boys heard it announced on a Los Angeles radio broadcast. Also, Admiral Hart confirms it. Seems the Navy lads knew about this twenty-five minutes ago."

"Christmas! Why is it that when we don't want news to travel it moves faster than a fly towards buttermilk but when there's important information . . . anyway, thanks, Spence. Stay on the horn and keep me posted." He hung up the phone and picked it back up again. "This is General Eisenhower. Put me through to General MacArthur immediately."

About three maddening minutes later he heard a voice on the other end. "Who the hell is this?"

"It's Ike, General. The Japs just hit Pearl."

"Pearl Harbor?" MacArthur exclaimed in astonishment. "But that's our strongest point! They must have gotten their tails whipped!"

"We don't have any damage reports yet. In any case we need to put the men on alert."

"I agree, Ike, but don't initiate anything without my orders."

"No, sir. But I do need to have Doolittle and Patton prepare for possible invasion."

"Just have them put their men on standby. I doubt we'll be attacked. If we go off half-cocked and this turns out that a few Jap reconnaissance planes were shot down over Hawaii we'll be a laughingstock."

Eisenhower's head was swimming as he struggled pulling his pants on. How the heck did I get into this mess? he thought. Then he recalled his friend back in DC. "Marshall! When I get home I'll have to kick his butt."

Ike had known the situation here, in the Philippines, for many years as did any of the military personnel who had spent as much time here as he had. They were the obvious strategic target for an ever more aggressive Japanese empire, as most military experts agreed. However, local politics, the distracting behavior of the Germans, and MacArthur's innate ability to alienate everyone in Washington had placed them in a position of almost hopeless vulnerability. Back in '38, he went, on behalf of MacArthur, to Washington to try and drum up support for the Philippines but the emotional climate there had been less than favorable. This was due to the fact that the Filipinos were clamoring for independence. As far as the War Department was concerned, as long as they were pushing for independence, they could "jolly well look after themselves." After a campaign of unsuccessful begging, he finally bought a few planes on his own and returned to Manila.

Then in '39, when the Germans invaded Poland, he had asked, and had been granted a transfer back to Washington. As he worked feverishly to prepare for the inevitable war in Europe, his conscience had been nagged by feelings of guilt over having deserted his friends in the Pacific. In an effort to clear his mind he once again pleaded MacArthur's case to Marshall. "That was my mistake," he muttered to himself as he finished tying his shoes.

To his shock, Marshall had agreed with him. "You're right Ike. We do need to bolster the Philippines. And you're gonna take charge, personally. I need a workhorse out there, not just grandstanding. Plus, you're the only one that can get around MacArthur's ego. As long as you humor him, he'll give you free reign. You know what to do."

Eisenhower was too stunned to respond. Before he could formulate a tactful refusal, Marshall was standing and giving instructions to his secretary to write out the orders. Of course Marshall was right, but Ike wasn't expecting this sudden change of plans. "I'm going to need some good people, George. I can't go it alone," he shouted as Marshall reached the door.

"Whatever you need, Ike. Just get the job done."

So here he was, getting the job done. Unfortunately he hadn't been given whatever he needed. But he did manage to get a lot more than otherwise would have been sent to MacArthur, as well as George Patton and Jim Doolittle.

He had completed making himself presentable although he knew his appearance would fall well below what MacArthur considered appropriate for a commanding officer. However, he couldn't spare the time for even a shave. He grabbed the sentry and ordered the confused soldier to drive to headquarters.

When the jeep pulled up there were already some officers present, hurriedly trying to straighten their uniforms. How could everyone know so fast? he thought. A cup of hot coffee was placed in his hands as he entered the building. "Call a general meeting for all available senior officers in one hour," he commanded to the nearest of his staff.

"Should we order an alert, General?"

"No! No alerts. Not yet," he replied too angrily and went into his office. Before he reached his desk, the phone was ringing. He grabbed the receiver and sat down. "Yes?" he said.

"Is that you, Ike?"

Eisenhower recognized Patton's voice. "Yes, George. Where are you?"

"Where the hell do you think I am? I'm in bed. What the hell's going on? I got a call from my chief of staff who says the whole place is buzzing. Is there some kind of fire or something?"

"The Japs just hit Pearl. That's the word. Could be a hoax but I'm not taking any chances. Get down here as soon as you can."

"Jesus Christ! I'll be right over. Don't start the war without me!"

Five minutes later Eisenhower was on the line with Colonel James Doolittle. "Jimmy, have you heard?"

"Sure have, Ike. Is it real?"

"Don't know yet but I don't want us to get caught with our pants down. I want you to send up some reconnaissance."

"Already ahead of you. I've got my boys on rotating patrol covering the ocean in a hundred-mile radius doubling up from here to Formosa. Of course we're spread pretty thin. We're using every available plane, even those damn Buffaloes. I'd have another fifteen fighters ready if we had the goddamn spare parts!"

"I know, I know. They've been promising us the moon . . ."

" . . . And don't even send us moonshine. We have to make our own."

"Well, whatever we have now is all there is. We have to make due. What about the bombers?"

"Most of them can be ready to fly in a few hours," Doolittle replied.

"I mean what about their safety? What if the Jap fighters slip through?"

"Not likely. Just in case, do you want to move them to Del Monte field?"

"What do you think?"

"I'll move them. I'll be at Clark if you need me."

By the time Patton arrived, Eisenhower had finished briefing his senior officers. "Good to see you, George."

"What's the scuttlebutt? Did they hit or not?"

"I just had a screaming match with Admiral Hart. The louse got word from his buddy Kimmel in Honolulu. Then he just sat on the information."

"Those swabbos can be real assholes. So it's for real?" Patton was leaning forward in his seat.

"I think this is it. There was definitely an attack of some sort but we don't know too many details. Hart thinks we got creamed but MacArthur called me and said he heard that the Japanese had suffered a setback. He said he heard it from the War Plans Division."

"Well, whatever the outcome, the bastards attacked us. I'll mobilize right away. Any news from the flyboys?"

"Hold off on mobilizing, George. The Old Soldier doesn't want us to do anything the Japs might consider 'overtly hostile.' It seems that he's getting a lot of pressure from the local governor to keep the Philippines neutral and MacArthur doesn't think the Japs will attack us, but if we become too aggressive he thinks we might force them to."

"Christ Almighty! They just bombed the shit out of an American city. Sounds pretty damn 'overt' to me. What the hell's he waiting for; some Nip to blow up his garden? Let that little shit of a governor squawk. Who do you think he'll come whining to if there is an invasion?" Patton was now pacing furiously.

"Settle down, old friend, I agree. But there's a lot we can still do without directly violating orders. We can call it a drill or maneuvers. Get everyone ready to move and start sending detachments north. If they hit us, that's the direction they'll come from. Just try to keep it low-key."

Patton stopped and thought, then smiled to his commander. "Low-key it is," he said and without another word was out the door.

About an hour later Doolittle was back on the line. "I just got a call from Hap Arnold. We did get hit at Pearl pretty bad."

"Any more details? What about orders?" Eisenhower was hoping for a green light from Washington.

"No details. He just said, 'Step up patrols and move the bombers south,' and I said, 'Yes, sir. Good idea. Thank you, sir.'"

"You know, Jimmy, you can be a real—"

"I know. All my friends tell me that. So what now?"

"Anything in from your men in the air?"

"Still too dark. But the sun will be up in about an hour. By then I'll have a squad over Takao Harbor."

It was only forty minutes later when Doolittle reported back. "Reports are coming in, Ike! Seems Formosa's fogged in but there's a shitload of Jap troop transports heading our way. There's also been a few skirmishes with enemy fighters that are probably from carriers. We lost some planes, General."

"Damn! Get all the B-17s that are already fitted out in the air as soon as possible. I don't care what MacArthur says now. We're moving. Got it?"

"Yes, sir. It should take about an hour and a half."

Eisenhower called MacArthur but was told that the general was in a meeting with the Filipino governor.

Patton was next on his list and, fortunately, was easier to reach.

"To heck with low-key, George. There's an invasion force on the way, most likely headed for Lingayen Gulf."

"I'm glad you said to drop the 'low-key,' Ike, because the whole island is buzzing like a hornet's nest. The locals are all heading south in droves and there have even been some reports of looting. So far the Filipino soldiers are sticking around but we'll see what happens when the shit starts to fly."

"What's the armor status?"

"Crappy. As you know, the five Grants they sent keep bogging down in the soft ground so they're pretty useless anywhere but the roads. Of the twenty-six Stuarts, we've had to cannibalize three for parts and another five are off-line until the goddamn parts come in. I wouldn't hold my breath. One platoon is too far south to do us any good. That leaves us with fourteen to try to repel a fullscale invasion."

"How about infantry?"

"We should be able to bring up about thirty-five hundred of our boys and two thousand locals."

"Why so few Filipinos?"

"Listen, Ike. I had to go through about twenty for every one that I kept. For one thing, they speak about a hundred different languages. And most of them just don't get it. I'd rather have a thousand soldiers than a hundred thousand pack bearers."

"What are your thoughts?"

"I think the Old Soldier is right. Looks like the bastards will hit the beaches at Lingayen. He's also right about stopping the Japs there. Once they get a beachhead they'll go through the rest of the island like crap through a goose. I'm moving out right away along with my men. Wanna come?"

"Actually I do plan on moving my headquarters north. What are our chances of stopping them?"

"I can't make any promises, Ike. But I will tell you that our boys won't run until they get the order. They're damn good men, every one of them, and the Japs are gonna have to pay a lot of blood for beachfront property."

It was ten o'clock before General Eisenhower got a call back from MacArthur. "This is Eisenhower, General. Do you have any more updates?"

"What the hell's going on, Eisenhower? My aides tell me the whole island is in an uproar. I told you not to sound an alert! You may have just single-handedly brought this whole country into the war."

Ike knew he was getting bawled out in that unnerving way his superior had of screaming without raising his voice. "But, General, the enemy is attacking. We've already lost some planes!"

"You think I don't know what's going on? You think I'm just sitting here sipping tea? Of course we lost some planes. That hot dog Doolittle sent our boys buzzing over their base like a swarm of bees. You think the Japanese aren't going to react? That act of his may have been enough to incite the enemy to attack. I'll have his hide when things settle down!"

"But, General. There have been reports that an invasion force is crossing the strait."

"Listen, Eisenhower. We don't know what's going on. It could be maneuvers or routine patrols. It would not be in the interest of the Japanese to invade here. I want you to prepare all air and ground defenses only. Do not bomb their bases on Formosa. That's an order, General. Do you read me?"

"Yes, General. But . . ." He heard the click of the receiver being slammed down. Ike cursed silently. Immediately, the phone rang again. Eisenhower quickly picked it up. "We must have been cut off, General MacArthur. I was going to ask . . ."

"Hold on, Ike. It's Jimmy. You sound like you've been getting your ass chewed!"

"That's an understatement. We've been ordered not to bomb Formosa. Can you believe that?"

"That's not gonna be a problem, Ike." Doolittle's voice was on the edge of hysteria. "From the reports my boys have been sending in we're in no position to attack their bases. The fog cleared and ever since, their airfields have been busier than a two-peckered goat. Our pilots claim the skies are black with Jap planes. I'm sure some formations are being reported more than once but from what we can figure, there's probably a couple hundred planes on the way. Sounds like an equal mix of bombers and fighters. Our patrols have been ordered to get the hell out of there and prepare to defend our coasts."

"What about our bombers?"

"All but three B-17s are in the air. It took longer than I promised but most are loaded with bombs and waiting for orders. The three on the ground are gonna stay there because we don't have the parts to make 'em fly, dammit."

"I'm afraid all we can do is order the flying ones to safer fields in the south while the Japs tear up whatever is in their range. Let's get every fighter armed and airborne, Jimmy. We can't stop them but at least we'll make sure they don't have a cakewalk."

"Listen, Ike. If we just sit here and wait the whole country will be overrun in no time. We've gotta try and stop the invasion force."

"I agree, but how the heck are we going to do it? Patton doesn't have enough men and tanks to do more than slow them down for a little while. I'm afraid we have to start getting ready to pull out."

"You know this position is the key to the Pacific. We have to hold out at all costs."

"You have a suggestion?"

"Well. We do have the bombers."

"I told you. We can't touch Formosa."

"We don't have to. What about hitting their ships?

Eisenhower paused for a few seconds. "You're talking about using B-17s to attack troop transports. Can that be done?"

"Why not? We'll have to come in real low, maybe fifty feet, and most will miss, but if any hit . . ."

"Their fighters will be all over us."

"I didn't say it would be a free ride, Ike. I don't know how many of ours will make it back. But what else can we do?"

"I don't know. It's a pretty big sacrifice."

"I'll take that as a yes. And listen, Ike. I'm going up to direct the whole thing personally. I'll take my own squadron as part of the escort. If it looks too hopeless I'll call the whole thing off."

"Carry on, Jim. And may God watch over you."
* * *

Colonel James Doolittle eased up on the throttle of his personally modified racing P-38 and signaled for the other eleven planes in his squadron to do the same. He was anxious to try the new planes in combat. Because of his aviation record he managed to get the first dozen P-38s made for himself and his hand-picked squadron. The rest of his fighter pilots had to fly the P-40s except for the poor bastards stuck with the P-36s. Below the sparse cloud ceiling he could see the entire Jap transport fleet. He picked up the radio transmitter to contact the lead bomber pilot. "Eggbeater. This is Thunderbird One. Over."

A clear voice responded. "I got you, Thunderbird. Any luck?"

"I'll say. The whole school of fish! Their position is about twenty-three miles from you at heading one-four-niner. No sign of mosquitoes yet but I know they're out there. Signal the others to begin their approach. And be prepared to abort if things get too hot."

"Yeah, sure thing. We'll just fly home, sit in the cabana and guzzle beer, while the doughboys get plastered all over the beach."

"Just keep an ear open for my orders, smartass."

Doolittle held his squadron back, not wanting to alert the enemy before the bombers came into view. It wasn't long before he could see them down below, diving even lower. "All right, boys. It's off to the races! Thunderbird Seven through Twelve, break right. The rest, follow me." With that, he pressed the throttle and sped toward the fleet.

It wasn't long before the action started. The excited voice on the radio squealed out, "Thunderbird One. This is Thunderbird Seven. Looks like about six mosquitoes heading right for our bombers."

Doolittle responded with a calm voice. "We'll get 'em Thunderbird Seven. You just keep your eyes peeled for the main flock. Now that we've been spotted they'll be showing up any minute." He wobbled his plane to signal the rest of the squadron, then put it into a power dive heading straight for the lead enemy fighter.

Four minutes later he was circling to gain altitude. He tried not to feel too invincible as he watched the last Jap plane crash into the sea. "Thunderbird Seven. This is Thunderbird One. Enemy planes have been neutralized."

"This is Thunderbird Seven. You guys could have left some for the rest of us. Hoooweee, they sure do burn bright when they catch fire!"

"Don't worry Thunderbird Seven. That was just a scouting patrol. There'll soon be plenty for everybody. Just keep your eyes . . . holy shit!"

Doolittle could see two large groups of Japanese fighters coming in low from the north. "All pilots. This is Thunderbird One. We got about forty Zeros coming in. Try to stay in formation but from here on we're pretty much on our own. Protect the bombers! Let's go!"

The first group of enemy fighters dove for the bombers while the rest broke into smaller groups to attack the American fighter escort. He ignored the second group and dove straight for the first. He intercepted them just before they hit the lead B-17. A short burst from his guns started a Zero smoking; he pulled up fast to avoid a pair of enemies on his tail. He would have been a goner but at the speed he was traveling he quickly outpaced them.

Doolittle turned his plane and saw the first two B-17s being swarmed by Japanese planes. One of the American bombers already belched thick black smoke from one of the engines. He did a quick barrel roll to the right to elude the new fighters on his tail and swooped right into the thick of the fray, taking care to stay out of range of the bomber's tail gunner. He sent another Zero plummeting toward the ocean before he was able to catch his breath and assess the battle.

His fighters seemed to be doing okay so far. Although they were badly outnumbered most of the Jap fighters were concentrating on the B-17s. Of course the Zeros going up against his squadron were shocked at the speed and maneuverability of his expert flyers. The American bombers were also knocking down a few enemy planes but, for the most part, were getting hammered. At least two were down and two more were in trouble. But they were making their final runs now and it looked like most would get to drop their loads.

He gunned his engine and raced to protect the lead B-17. He shot down another Zero but three more closed in and the bomber exploded. Doolittle watched the next well-escorted B-17 drop its bombs. Great geysers erupted in front of the Jap troop ship but it remained undamaged. "Dammit!" he cursed. Then, as he watched the bomber begin to regain altitude, he realized what had to be done.

He screamed into the radio, "All Thunderbird and Blue fighters. This is Thunderbird One. Cease escort after the birds lay their eggs. Repeat. Protect only loaded bombers!"

"Jesus Christ, Colonel! Do you know what you're saying?" came an unidentified voice.

"Just do it!" He turned his plane around and headed for the B-17s that were still making their bomb run. He could see some of the Jap fighters going for the now unescorted American bombers. He knew they wouldn't be able to resist.

A series of loud explosions drew his attention downward and he saw a troop ship break in half. The dogfights were still furious but, with a number of the enemy drawn off, the odds were a lot more even. Again and again bombers were able to score hits which were always kills on the light transports. Doolittle watched in horror as a dying B-17, hounded by Zeros, made a lumbering turn and crashed right into an enemy ship.

The colonel downed another plane before the last B-17 dropped its load, scoring a direct hit, instantly demolishing a troop ship. "All planes back to base!" he screamed into the transmitter. "All Blues and Thunderbirds. Cover bombers. Come on boys, let's discourage them from chasing us." He then led a savage attack on the Zeros continuing to harass the bombers. Oh, Christ! he thought as he scanned the sky and counted the few survivors.

General Eisenhower paid no attention to the bouncing jeep as his driver negotiated the potholes. He welcomed any distraction to keep his mind off Doolittle's suicide run. When they approached the next checkpoint he could see a sergeant waving him down and his heart started pounding.

"Message for General Eisenhower."

Five minutes later he was on the phone. "Jimmy. This is Ike. Thank God you made it!"

"Yeah," came the somber reply. "But I don't have a lot of company."

"And the mission?"

"I think we knocked out about half their troops. There were a lot of smoking wrecks in the ocean when we left, Ike, but they weren't all ships."

"Well done, Colonel," Eisenhower offered.

"You might not think so when you hear the bill."

There was a brief pause. "How bad?"

"We lost fourteen fighters. Most of the P-40s from Blue squadron. But we downed between thirty and thirty-five fighters."

"And the bombers?"

Now Doolittle paused. "The B-17s took eighty percent casualties, General."

"Dear God," came Eisenhower's reply.

The pilot continued. "I take full responsibility. I ordered the fighters to protect the planes that hadn't unloaded."

"You did what you had to do to get the job done, Jim."

"But was it enough?"

"We'll know by tomorrow. Things have been pretty hectic here while you were gone."

"I heard. Reports are still coming in."

"Bring me up to date. I've been on the road," the general said as he took out his pen.

"Most of our fighters accounted well for themselves, Ike. Except the poor bastards in those worthless Buffaloes. They went down faster than the Hindenburg. Over all we lost about twenty-five planes that were defending the island. Plus the three grounded B-17s. But we dropped over forty of their bombers and at least a dozen more Zeros. The Jap pilots must have had a few mixups. Probably because they had so many targets. Whatever the reason, some of their bomber squadrons had no escorts and we just slaughtered them. Also, those antiaircraft batteries you let me install at the airfields were pretty effective."

"And the airfields?"

"Pretty chopped up. There's only two runways still operational for fifty miles. We'll have at least two more cleared in about forty-eight hours. But Clark is just a big trashpile. Also, there are dozens of buildings and installations burning. I'll tell you, Ike. First chance I get, I'm gonna take every plane I can get my hands on and bomb the hell out of Tokyo!"

"You do that and you'll have me cheering loudest, Jimmy. Salvage what you can and keep the remaining fighters ready for additional attacks. If the Japs are following through with their invasion the assault should start in about thirty-six hours. And . . . thanks."

"Yeah. Sure. Anytime, General," came the dejected response.
* * *

It was 2:00 p.m. the next day before Eisenhower finally met up again with Patton. He returned the salute, then shook his hand. "How's it going, George? You look like hell."

"Well that's a damn shame, Ike, because I was planning on entering a beauty contest tonight."

"What have you got for me?"

"Assuming they land where their planes hit the hardest, we should be in good shape. As long as they don't attack us with more than half a dozen old ladies."

"That bad?"

"Not quite. But most of the roads to the supply depots are torn to hell. A lot of our shit has to be brought up on foot and oxcart. Is it too late to get those hundred thousand pack bearers I turned down earlier?"

"What about the defenses, George? What are we looking at?"

"Of course everything depends on where they hit and how many there are. But I think we'll be able to give them a run for their money. The tanks will help a lot. We lost some Grants to the Jap bombers, but the Stuarts all made it, being able to go off-road. By the time the Japs hit, I'll have men and tanks spread out far enough to cover the main area but close enough to support each other. Plus I'm holding back some reserves to cover any breach in the front line. Any chance of the Navy pitching in?"

"No chance at all. They're getting harassed by a small carrier group and MacArthur wants them to stay in the south in case we have to abandon the Philippines."

"Figures. How about some cards?"

December 11, 1941

Eisenhower stood up in the makeshift sandbag bunker and watched the approaching enemy ships through his binoculars. An aide had come to wake him up at dawn that morning but he was already awake, fully dressed, and finishing his second cup of coffee. "Enemy ships approaching, General," was the awaited announcement that set the day in motion.

Now it was two hours later and he was about to witness the invasion. His staff pleaded with him to make his headquarters in a safer spot but he refused. "I'm not going to sit blind in the bushes and try to guess the outcome." So here he was, gazing out over the beautiful Gulf of Lingayen. A spot he had enjoyed picnicking at years before. The American light artillery pieces had already started taking ranging shots. Enemy plane activity was surprisingly light. No time to wonder about it now, he thought as he focused in on the ships. So many. Thank God half were destroyed or we wouldn't stand a chance. But do we? He looked around and the heavy vegetation gave the impression that only a handful of defenders prepared to meet the assault.

He watched the ships spread out and slowly form two lines facing the shore, coordinating to hit all points at once in two waves. "They seem pretty organized," he commented to his aide, who nodded in agreement.

Once they formed up they began heading toward the beaches at full throttle. That's when Eisenhower noticed the planes. Enemy fighters started strafing runs while two squadrons of bombers held back, waiting for the defenses to reveal themselves. He heard the sharp reports of the tanks opening up on the approaching vessels, saw the splash of the near misses and the bursts of the hits as they ripped through the hulls.

He watched the lead ships ground themselves and the troops pouring over the side. One ship must have hit a reef in deep water because the soldiers jumping in were over their heads. Some were swimming, many never came up. The defending machine guns were now in full swing, mowing down men as they approached the beach. My God, what a slaughter, he was about to exclaim when the world around him erupted.

The next thing he knew he was lying on his back trying to rub sand out of his eyes. He was aware of a heavy weight being lifted off his chest, then saw the bloody, lifeless face of his aide.

"General! Are you hurt?" cried a voice.

"I don't think so. Somebody get me a canteen so I can wash my eyes out. What the heck hit us?"

"Jap bombers. They're pounding the shit out of our defenses."

Eisenhower managed to clear his eyes enough to look around and assess the situation. Heavy attacks from the air had subdued the defenders enough for the enemy soldiers to establish multiple beachheads. While still taking heavy casualties, the enemy was slowly, successfully advancing and his own men were forced to pull back. He saw the smoking wreck of a tank a few hundred yards down the beach. "Get me Patton on the phone!" he screamed to no one in particular.

"George," he yelled into the field receiver. "They're breaking through. We need to counterattack!"

"Jesus Christ, Ike. I'm not just picking my ass. I know what's going on. I've already got the reserves on the move. You just watch the show and let me do the generaling. That's what you brought me here for, remember?" He abruptly hung up.

Sure enough, the jungle behind him came alive. A Stuart tank raced up, spraying the enemy with machine-gun fire to deadly effect. Dozens of Japanese fell less than a hundred yards in front of him. Behind the tank came American GIs; their youthful faces displaying grim determination. He saw a screaming group of Filipino soldiers charge right into the enemy line. The ferocity of the counterattack first staggered, then stopped the advancing line of the invaders. Eisenhower was beginning to cheer as the enemy broke and raced back toward the water, then noticed the other squadron of Japanese bombers closing in. At the same time, the second wave of infantry was massing on the beach, preparing to finish off whatever was left after the bombs hit.

Again he managed to get Patton on the line. "More bombers, George!"

"I see."

"What are our chances? Any more reserves?"

"I think we're screwed, Ike. Anything that can do more than spit is on our front line and the bombers are about to plaster us."

"Do we retreat?"

The roar of the first bombs exploding confirmed Patton's reply. "Too late, Ike."

General Eisenhower stood paralyzed as he watched the earth-shaking explosions getting closer. Then a blast of a different type of explosion drew him out of his trance and he glanced curiously upward in the direction of the new sound. There he saw a Jappanese bomber burning as it plummeted toward the sea, trailing great gouts of black smoke. Then he noticed two more enemy planes going down.

"Ike! You still there?"

Eisenhower had forgotten to hang up the field phone. "Yeah, George. What the heck . . . ?"

"It's Doolittle! That crazy bastard and the rest of his squadron are taking on the whole Jap airforce. And you know what? They're winning!"

Ike could see the small P-38s buzzing around the enemy bombers with Zeros hot on their tails. There were still some bombs falling but most had been neutralized. Just as the last attacking bomber exploded in the jungle to his left, a single P-38, flying about thirty feet off the ground, strafed the invading infantry along the entire beachfront. It then disappeared over the jungle before the three pursuing Zeros could close.

The inspired allies responded as if it were a signal and advanced, pinning down the Japanese soldiers; turning attackers into defenders. From where he stood, Eisenhower watched pockets of desperate invaders try to charge up the beach but all were killed or driven back. At last the remaining attackers began to lay down their arms. First in small groups, then whole platoons. He heaved a great sigh as he realized that the invasion had been repulsed.

December 25, 1941

General Eisenhower glanced out the window of his personal car then gave a cynical smile to General Patton, who had just gotten in and sat down next to him. "Merry Christmas, George. Wouldn't you just know it: perfect weather! I think MacArthur must have a direct line to God."

"That's one school of thought, Ike," Patton replied. "Personally, I think his master comes from the other direction. Though, if you spend enough time around him you get the feeling God takes orders from him. Merry Christmas to you, too."

"Congratulations on your promotion. We're gonna miss you around here."

"Thanks. I'll miss you and the guys but not these jungles. No place for tanks."

"You did all right, George, jungle and all. It's not so bad here."

"No. I suppose you're right, Ike. Could be worse. At least it's not the Sahara Desert. 'Course, it doesn't really matter how I feel, I'm bound for Europe either way. Wish you were coming, too. Helluva thing. I'm not surprised about MacArthur taking and getting all the credit . . ."

Eisenhower laughed, "Not surprised? C'mon George. We'd have all been shocked if he didn't!"

"Sure would. But why in the hell is he playing me up so much? You and Jimmy did most of it."

"Don't kid yourself. You did plenty. The Old Soldier knows he'll need you right there with him when he goes up against the Germans in Europe. That's where the real war is going to be. That's where they're gonna need a tank commander." Eisenhower paused and sized up his friend. "You know, George, you're a hero now. Everything you do will make the news back home. Try not to slap any more soldiers."

Patton laughed defiantly. "I don't give a shit about any goddamn reporters. I'll train the men the way I want to." Then he met Eisenhower's gaze and gave him a comradely smile. "You know, Ike, you'd be going with me to fight the Germans instead of MacArthur if you hadn't left Washington to come back here."

Ike looked at the surrounding countryside that he had come to love so much and drew a deep breath. "Yeah, but then what would have happened here to these good people?"

"I don't even want to think about it," Patton answered, then sat straight up and looked out the front of the car. "Holy shit! Is the circus in town?"

Eisenhower again smiled and shook his head as he stared at the scene they were about to join. There were hundreds of soldiers, American and Filipino, wearing their dress uniforms and standing at attention. There had to be thousands of locals waving American flags and holding up MacArthur banners. Some were cheering and many, weeping. On a raised platform stood MacArthur himself, surrounded by reporters and cameras. There was a band playing but it was being drowned out by the crowd.

After the speech and ceremonial "passing of the reins" to Eisenhower, MacArthur waved to the screaming crowd, descended the steps, and climbed into a waiting car. Just before the door closed, Ike looked him in the eye and asked, "Think you'll be back, General?"

After a brief pause to look around, the response came quietly, "Not even if Hitler makes this his summer home."

Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto glared disapprovingly at the younger officer who had directed the invasion of the Philippines. "You bring me news of this failure after such a great success in Pearl Harbor? You should be filled with shame. The enemy forces were so much greater in Hawaii than those that you faced, yet our victory there was beyond our greatest hopes. And you, facing resistance less than your own numbers, dare to tell me of your defeat?"

"We accomplished much to weaken them, my admiral. It was not a complete failure."

"And we lost even more!" screamed Yamamoto.

"We also learned a great deal from our attack."

"Oh? So what do you now suggest?"

"To take what we learned and use it effectively. I made a vow on the blood of my ancestors."

"A vow?" The admiral looked thoughtfully at his officer. "Tell me this vow."

As we left the island, I looked back and swore: "I shall return."

 

[CalBear]

Not needed, The War games in 1939, and 1940 had already shown how a attacker could readily devastate Pearl's defenses.
Both attacks by the Navy had been on Sundays, just for this reason.

Interesting take.

 

[hinotoin]

The people in this timeline would have a lot of problems. Firstly how would you re-arm that fast and how in gods name do you get the political backing for a war in the climate of isolationism ?

 

[DuQuense]

On 1/1/40, the U.S. undergoes an epiphany, realizing that it is virtually certain to be at war within a year, probably with both the Reich and Japan. Weapons production, not just procurement, but actual production, is literally pushed forward by a year across the board for everything from G.I socks to 16”/50 Gun tubes and everything in between

As the Montana's were scheduled to begin construction in 1942, this means they begin before Pearl, and their construstion Slips are not taken by the Exexx carriers.
Yea for More BB's.

 

[CalBear]

The people in this timeline would have a lot of problems. Firstly how would you re-arm that fast and how in gods name do you get the political backing for a war in the climate of isolationism ?

Again, the decision to build has already been made. In June & July of 1940 the Congress of the United States, scared %$#^less by the fall of France, wrote FDR a blank check for naval aviation, and more than doubled the authorized size of the USN as well as signing a series of Billion dollar checks for the U.S. Army & USAAF (and this was when a front line fighter cost about $75,000, a B-17 was $200K, & a Sherman tank ran about the price of a mid-priced SUV ($34K) so $996 MILLION dollars bought a lot of airframes & armor. Isolation died, after a two year illness, when Paris fell.

As already pointed out, we are talking somewhere in the area of 700 aircraft, from five different manufacturers (Boeing, Chance-Vought, Grumman, Lockheed, Republic). The one with the biggest challenge is Lockheed, but IOTL, it was also the one already in series production at the time of the POD & even here the production figure is an AVERAGE of 25 a MONTH, with Chance-Vought needing to build around 10 planes a month.

That is what makes this so interesting to me. It is a minor burble in production and a couple burst of common sense.

 

[Faeelin]

A huge effect, especially if it managed to find way to get rid of MacArthur. Unfortunately, I doubt that there are butterflies nearly that large available.

Is there any way to change Macarthur's attitude?

Compare his policy in Japan postwar to his attitude in the Philippines; it seems like everyone treated their time there as an endless summer.

 

[Riain]

When you put a number on it, 700 planes from 5 companies it seems all too achieveable. The planes would be the first ones off the line, not the later versions we know and love, but plenty enough when combined with a can-do attitude to cause a stalemate in the first months of the war, and that's a great position to launch a counter offensive from.

On another topic, why do people quote vast sections of text in their replies? I for one can follow where replies are meant to go without gigantic quotes.