No US, no Kerensky Offensive; how will WWI end?

[Catspoke]

I've read about ROot's mission to RUssia and I know he said "no loan no fight." I wash not aware of a specific connection to the Kerensky Offensive.

When your negotiating, I am sure your going to ask for things, so Root is going to ask for stuff and the Russians are going to ask for stuff too, with some amount of bluff going on in the negotiating tactics, if Root never arrives though the Russians will have to make their own decisions based on current conditions. No Kerensky offensive, but stay in the line seems reasonable.

I would be worried without USA loans to Britain, France that pipeline of stuff coming down the Murmansk railway starts to dry up. Western front offensives don't happen, The Germans launch a major offensive somewhere in the fall of 17 (a bigger Italian offensive, a bigger Moldovan offensive, something in Salonika, etc...)

 

[Kaiserboi]

When your negotiating, I am sure your going to ask for things, so Root is going to ask for stuff and the Russians are going to ask for stuff too, with some amount of bluff going on in the negotiating tactics, if Root never arrives though the Russians will have to make their own decisions based on current conditions. No Kerensky offensive, but stay in the line seems reasonable.

I would be worried without USA loans to Britain, France that pipeline of stuff coming down the Murmansk railway starts to dry up. Western front offensives don't happen, The Germans launch a major offensive somewhere in the fall of 17 (a bigger Italian offensive, a bigger Moldovan offensive, something in Salonika, etc...)

Which offensive do you think is most likely, and what are the likely results?

 

[Catspoke]

There is a lot of butterflies on the eastern front, if the Russians are inactive due to no USA loans, are the Romanians? Italy seems likely though, it offers the ability to capture supplies, take a strategic objective in Venice, that gives the Austrian navy naval control of the northern adriatic. The Germans and Austrians can advance to the line lake gardia, the po, to the adriatic. A easily defendable line, Italy is to dependent on the Allies to leave the war, but they would be crippled here.

 

[The Galaxy]

Without US loans I think that the Entente may lose or peace out earlier than 1918.

But that also means that the US and people in the US missed out on making money.

Now without the Kerensky offensive in the OTL with loans and the US entering etc, just changing the offensive, then the provisional government may hang on until elections are held, as they were in the OTL on the 25th of nov.

Without the 2nd revolution Russia may be able to hang in there a few more months which will mean that the western Allies facing fewer Germans may be able to push far enough so that Germany peaces out.