no Free French

[Cregan]

How can the establishment and development of the Free French movement-in-exile be prevented, such that the Vichy (can relocate to Paris) French State is considered (by friends and foes alike) as the only government of France and the French colonial empire?

(Note: the French Resistance can still arise, and the British can continue fighting the war and refuse an armistice with the Axis, but in that case I guess the British and Americans must outright seize the French colonies without the figleaf of installing Free French control over them).

 

[Matteo]

For this to happen, I can see no other way than to have Britain coming to terms with nazi Germany.

 

[Cregan]

For this to happen, I can see no other way than to have Britain coming to terms with nazi Germany.

That seems the most likely way. How could it happen?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

There are several good books that include descriptions of how Petains government lost control & how DeGaulle took over French leadership. Paxtons 'Vichy France' is old but still a credible source. Jacksons 'The Dark Years' is fairly recent & a good English language account.

The US & most other nations considered Petains government the legit until Nov-Dec 1942. Full recognition and diplomatic relations were maintained until then. For the US the break came when the Germans invaded the unoccupied Vichy territory and Petain lost any residual independance. Even then the US did not automatically recognize DeGualles group in London. Admiral Leahey, and Eisenhower, recommended recognition of Admiral Darlan as the legitimate representative of France & its leader within the Allied ranks. That plan was under negotiation & Darlan was in fact acting as the French government in the colonies when he was assasinated.

With Adm Darlan dead & Petains government locked down by the Germans French leadership turned into a freefor all. With British backing DeGaulles group eventually came out on top.

Darlan had been the PM of France for some months under Petain & had then been appointed his offcial head of the French government in the colonies, that is Petains direct representative. If Darlan survives assasination he would have completed negotiation with the Allies & taken over from Petain as the legit leader of France. That had been Petains intent, but Darlans murder voided that.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Note that when the Allies overran France in August 1944 Petains group thought they would have a role in serving as a interm or caretaker government until something new was formed post liberation. Hitler had other plans & Laval, Petain & the rest were taken into custody by the Gestapo & hustled off to a hotel in southern Germany, where they spent the remainder of the war. Had they managed to evade German 'protection', they would have been imprisioned by DeGaulles group who intended to nuetralize them as rapidly as possible.

 

[Derwit]

Maybe France fights on for an extra week or two causing the destruction of all their major military formations so that all of France can see they are well and truly defeated. Then when the call for an armistice is made it is less divisive within the French leadership and general population. In this scenario less high ranking military personnel escape to form the Free French. Although some die hards would form some form of army of exile.

However France fighting on a little longer causes increased damage to the German armed forces. Which takes longer to rectify, and redeploy so the BOB starts later if at all) and Sea Lion is never viable (yes it never was but the idea was taken seriously in 1940). This has implications for the British war effort as with no invasion scare better equipment would have been introduced sooner.

Also I would expect the terms Germany would offer France would be harsher in this scenario with most if not all the country coming under occupation. This increases the Resistance especially as the men who OTL made up the Free French formations are still at home and I would suspect are amongst the most anti Germany/Nazi people in France in 1940.

Without a legitimate Free French movement I'm unsure what would happen to the French fleet and colonies. This would depend on what kind of government the Germans allow France.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

...
Without a legitimate Free French movement I'm unsure what would happen to the French fleet and colonies. This would depend on what kind of government the Germans allow France.

Germany did not have the ability to take control of the French colonies in 1940-42. They had two choices, either shut down the French government & see the colonies quickly picked off by Britain, or allow a 'nuetral' French government to exist & leave it enough military strength to defend its empire. As it was leaving a French government intact only delayed the Brits as the Allies effectively controlled most of the colonies in 30 months.

Had Hitler negotiated a genuine peace treaty with France before 1942 & allowed the reconstruction of the French military he might have made things more difficult for Britain.

 

[Ian Hathaway]

Had Hitler negotiated a genuine peace treaty with France before 1942 & allowed the reconstruction of the French military he might have made things more difficult for Britain.

Interesting thought. Not an axis France or axis allied France a neutral France. Would the WAllies have invaded a neutral country in '44 to get at Germany or would they have had to concentrate all force through Italy?

 

[MichaelWest]

For my own musing I am curious about any good predictions for a France without the Free French and DeGaulle, especially post-war. Other threads, books or replies welcome. Would Petain have pursued a new Republic and stepped aside, monarchy returns or would Petain hold on to a benign authoritarian regime until his death or revolution? Thank you in advance.

 

[Penny for The Guy]

Interesting

Interesting thought. Not an axis France or axis allied France a neutral France. Would the WAllies have invaded a neutral country in '44 to get at Germany or would they have had to concentrate all force through Italy?

Moreover, if the Wallies make it clear they WILL invade France to get to the Germans, this might make some proud Frenchmen fight to keep the Wallies out of France?
Without investment in the Atlantic Wall, would Germany have made greater resources available for tanks and aircraft, or deployed them better? (Nothing is going to save Germany's rosy red, once the Wallies get rolling, though.)
This would also seem to torpedo the EU later on, or at least, admitting the Brits into the EU.

 

[Saphroneth]

I'm not at all sure the Germans would allow a truly "neutral" France:


1) If they retain basing rights on the west coast to keep up the Battle of the Atlantic, that's not neutral.
2) They have to allow for the possibility that the British and Americans will quietly do a deal, and then coup-de-main directly into a major northern port!

 

[SeanPdineen]

cd

What about guiard, and jean moulien?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Have the Germans be willing to make the necessary concessions to make Vichy a fully ally...but that is probably ASB.
A somewhat simpler option is to have de Gaulle assassinated later on, or killed in 1940 during the BoF. It wouldn't have been hard to see de Gaulle killed in action. Then have Darlan assassinated as per OTL and the Free French find it hard to get a leader to rally around. Perhaps you'd have a second tier general like Leclerc take over later on

 

[Johannes Parisiensis]

If the Allies still win the war:

1. If, after Torch but before Anton, Pétain, or at least Darlan manages to proclam the ralliment of the French State to the Allies then it might end like OTL 1943 Italy
2. However, if Pétain still remains after Case Anton then France might have seen AMGOT established and the Empire lost

For my own musing I am curious about any good predictions for a France without the Free French and DeGaulle, especially post-war. Other threads, books or replies welcome. Would Petain have pursued a new Republic and stepped aside, monarchy returns or would Petain hold on to a benign authoritarian regime until his death or revolution? Thank you in advance.

In 1944, Pétain promulgated a constitution project for a *IVth Republic; this constitution was corporatist, a strong Head of State elected by an Electoral Congress and gave the vote to Frenchs of both genders - however, only natural born citizens (that is, born from a French father) were to be elected;
this could be applied if the Allies win.

Of course, if the Nazis win the war then Laval, Doriot, Déat and other assorted fascists might have more clouts.

 

[MichaelWest]

If the Allies still win the war:

1. 
   

In 1944, Pétain promulgated a constitution project for a *IVth Republic; this constitution was corporatist, a strong Head of State elected by an Electoral Congress and gave the vote to Frenchs of both genders - however, only natural born citizens (that is, born from a French father) were to be elected;
this could be applied if the Allies win.

Perfect! Thank you for the reply and insight, much appreciated!

 

[Cregan]

Seems to me that the best shot at this is De Gaulle dying during the Battle of France so the Free French have no strong and prominent leader to coalesce around for the British to prop up (hence the Free French project goes nowhere), and then Darlan not being assassinated later. With Darlan surviving, he is anointed Petain's deputy and successor.

Darlan - under instruction from Petain - later flips to the Allies, Case Anton happens, and the Vichyites are now on the Allied side as the recognised government of France.

 

[Simon]

For my own musing I am curious about any good predictions for a France without the Free French and De Gaulle, especially post-war.

Well it's certainly going to be looked on much less favourably with it likely being put under the control of the Allied Military Government for Occupied Territories as was planned for in our timeline if De Gaulle hadn't stepped in. Politics will be fun since the communists were rather large at that point in time thanks to their efforts in the resistance but De Gaulle stomped on everyone to gain power immediately post-invasion, here the Vichy government will have been discredited and there won't be an immediate 'clean' replacement imposing themselves. It'll get messy. You can forget about any kind of occupation zone in Germany, and I do have to wonder about whether they'd receive a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. In recognition of the size of their Empire though, and to try and keep them within the Western sphere, I could see perhaps a compromise being hammered out of there being three veto wielding permanent members, two permanent members without vetoes in the form of France and China, and the rest run as it is now.

 

[usertron2020]

Let's assume no bombardment at Oran, and the French Navy in Algeria either stays there or escapes to Toulon before the British can cut them off.

Shortly thereafter, Hitler gets the idea to activate Operation Anton in order to seize or at least neutralize the French Fleet (perhaps at the insistence of Il Duce).

1) The Vichy French Army resists just long enough to allow the fleet to escape

2) Petain and his government go with them

3) "Vichy" in Metropolitan France collapses

4) Petain declares for the Allies

5) Petain orders every part of the French Empire to open their borders and welcome the Allies

6) France Fights On.

7) The Occupation in France soon looks not much better than Poland's. Though the lack of large scale collaborationists in France ITTL should IMO slow down the Holocaust in France somewhat.

Opinions?

 

[Saphroneth]

Doesn't that make them Free French, though? OTL there were Free Poles.

 

[Johannes Parisiensis]

There's also effects on the post-war politics to consider: OTL the French Communist Party derived most of his image from being the party with the 75,000 executed.

TTL, if Darlan rally the Allies and De Gaulle isn't around then collaborators might better justify their acts by saying they managed to protect France from being directly ruled by Nazis and would only deplorate some excessive zeal from those who went too far; moreover, the right-wing might be able to argue it was the left-wing who provoked the German occuper, and that they had to clean afterward, along with the fact the U.S.S.R. furnished supplies to the Reich while their French puppies were inly fighting Germans after 1941.