Let's assume no bombardment at Oran, and the French Navy in Algeria either stays there or escapes to Toulon before the British can cut them off. Shortly thereafter, Hitler gets the idea to activate Operation Anton in order to seize or at least neutralize the French Fleet (perhaps at the insistence of Il Duce).
1) The Vichy French Army resists just long enough to allow the fleet to escape
2) Petain and his government go with them
3) "Vichy" in Metropolitan France collapses
4) Petain declares for the Allies
5) Petain orders every part of the French Empire to open their borders and welcome the Allies
6) France Fights On.

7) The Occupation in France soon looks not much better than Poland's

. Though the lack of large scale collaborationists in France ITTL should IMO slow down the Holocaust in France somewhat.

Opinions?