No 1868 Spanish Revolution, or Infante Juan, Count of Montizón becomes King of Spain?

[Sardar]

Again, you can't. Spain was a highly unstable society split between multiple political and social factions, each with their own influence and power. OTL was about as peaceful as such a mess could ever be.

This is alternate history, I'm doubtful it is that pre-determined. Especially considering the Restoration by 1876, which gave Spain relative stability for the next several decades. Why can't that process by accelerated in some way?

Marry her to her Carlist claimant cousin?

Isn't that what essentially happened in the long run, the Carlist claims merged as Isabella married her uncle?

 

[Wendell]

This is alternate history, I'm doubtful it is that pre-determined. Especially considering the Restoration by 1876, which gave Spain relative stability for the next several decades. Why can't that process by accelerated in some way?

Isn't that what essentially happened in the long run, the Carlist claims merged as Isabella married her uncle?

Her OTL suitor was neither the first nor the second in line, and his marriage to her over the succession of the rightful Carlist delegitimized her descendants in the eyes of many Carlists.

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

This is alternate history, I'm doubtful it is that pre-determined. Especially considering the Restoration by 1876, which gave Spain relative stability for the next several decades. Why can't that process by accelerated in some way?

Isn't that what essentially happened in the long run, the Carlist claims merged as Isabella married her uncle?

For starters, you need to get rid of Isabella. The longer she stays in the throne, the longer the crisis lasts.

Then, you need to get rid of Serrano to have some stability. And then to cross fingers that the new king doesn't end up as tired and angered with the country as Amadeo de Saboya did.

No, Alfonso XII had the good luck of being asked to be the king after Spain endured Amadeo I and then the Republic. Had he replaced his mother, he wouldn't have lasted long.

 

[VVD0D95]

For starters, you need to get rid of Isabella. The longer she stays in the throne, the longer the crisis lasts.

Then, you need to get rid of Serrano to have some stability. And then to cross fingers that the new king doesn't end up as tired and angered with the country as Amadeo de Saboya did.

No, Alfonso XII had the good luck of being asked to be the king after Spain endured Amadeo I and then the Republic. Had he replaced his mother, he wouldn't have lasted long.

How did Spain survive as a country with all this chaos?

 

[Emperor CJ]

How did Spain survive as a country with all this chaos?

Sheer inertia, and getting all the crazy out of its system under Isabel II and the 1870s chaos. Though it is pretty telling that Restoration Spain basically invented a system of electoral fraud to keep the centre-right and centre-left in alternating power for decades (The Turno), in order to maintain stability.

 

[Wendell]

How did Spain survive as a country with all this chaos?

Being next to similarly drama-filled states helped.

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

The only way to avoid a Revolution is to have some kind of "semi" Revolution, that is, with the heads of the coup informing Isabella that she has two options: to accept their reforms or to settle in Paris. So, with a bit of luck, you can try to have Isabella as a figure head and Serrano and Prim attempting to create some kind of parliament. Narváez would not be a nuissance for too long, as he died in October 1868, and after him, it's just a question of trusting that everything is going to be a bit calmer than IOTL. Of course, you would still have the Carlists, Cuba, the Federalist discontent, etc, but, with a powerless and (hopefully) harmless Isabel II and a peaceful transition towards a parliamentarian monarchy (even if it has to end in the fiasco of the turnismo), you can skip the troubled 1868-1874 period. Of course, if the turnismo begins earlier than IOTL, it's going to show its limitation also a bit earlier...

 

[Emperor CJ]

The only way to avoid a Revolution is to have some kind of "semi" Revolution, that is, with the heads of the coup informing Isabella that she has two options: to accept their reforms or to settle in Paris. So, with a bit of luck, you can try to have Isabella as a figure head and Serrano and Prim attempting to create some kind of parliament. Narváez would not be a nuissance for too long, as he died in October 1868, and after him, it's just a question of trusting that everything is going to be a bit calmer than IOTL. Of course, you would still have the Carlists, Cuba, the Federalist discontent, etc, but, with a powerless and (hopefully) harmless Isabel II and a peaceful transition towards a parliamentarian monarchy (even if it has to end in the fiasco of the turnismo), you can skip the troubled 1868-1874 period. Of course, if the turnismo begins earlier than IOTL, it's going to show its limitation also a bit earlier...

Except there's nothing stopping Isabel from collabing with a different faction of the army and removing the latest coupists. That happened like 3 or so times in her OTL reign, so there's no reason to think it wouldn't happen a 4th time ttl.

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

Except there's nothing stopping Isabel from collabing with a different faction of the army and removing the latest coupists. That happened like 3 or so times in her OTL reign, so there's no reason to think it wouldn't happen a 4th time ttl.

She can ask Pavía for support, and he could try his luck against Serrano. If he wins, Spain will keep stagnating as pre-1868, but I wouldn't place too much trust in the warrying spirits of Pavia's men. If not, then the Provisional Government, Amadeo and all that. Or she can think "I'll keep the crown, my palaces and my lovers, and they will have the power..."

Bearing in mind the fate of Spain of always going the hard way, I bet for Isabel turning to Pavía and then the Alcolea of that alternate coup.

 

[Sardar]

Is there any way for Spain to stabilize in the second half of the 19th century?

(also I add to the many curses on the name of Fernando VII for making this so damn hard, in addition to many other things lol)

 

[Mitridates the Great]

I also want to know if there is a way, preferably one that doesn't involve "doing a Westeros" (ie, murdering more than half the country).

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

Is there any way for Spain to stabilize in the second half of the 19th century?

(also I add to the many curses on the name of Fernando VII for making this so damn hard, in addition to many other things lol)

Once Isabella is out of the way, keep Prim alive, as you will keep the monarchic coalition together and Amadeo on the throne. Kill, send to exile, whatever, but get rid of Montpensier. Keep the Carlists at bay and have the Constitution of 1869 giving the naming of the government to the parliament and not to the crown.

And that's only the beginning.

 

[Sardar]

Once Isabella is out of the way, keep Prim alive, as you will keep the monarchic coalition together and Amadeo on the throne. Kill, send to exile, whatever, but get rid of Montpensier. Keep the Carlists at bay and have the Constitution of 1869 giving the naming of the government to the parliament and not to the crown.

And that's only the beginning.

Alright then. Suppose all those things happen. What might a Savoia Spain look like in the long run? Will the Carlists have any steam left?

 

[Mitridates the Great]

Alright then. Suppose all those things happen. What might a Savoia Spain look like in the long run? Will the Carlists have any steam left?

Probably very aligned with Italy, which could be a problem in the short term. Italy was in the Central Powers, which will make France feel surrounded and adopt an anti-Spanish policy to "contain Germany's Allies" - no, they will not care that Spain is not even allied with Germany-

The UK will probably be happy to help with this because "balance of power" so the Carlists suddenly start receiving paychecks backed by English and French banks. This in turn forces Spain to choose between the Entente and the Central Powers, but it is more likely that Amadeo will try to do like Italy and navigate between two waters while waiting for a better offer.

London decides that's not enough so he basically tells the United States that, as far as they're concerned, Washington can invade and annex Cuba and London won't care.

The Spanish-American War occurs, Spain predictably loses (I don't think it has had time to make too many reforms in the armed forces) and the United States gains new territories. Now Spain is definitely pissed off and wanting revenge...

...but "fortunately" this is the moment when the Carlists (with a lot of weapons that definitely haven't come out of English arsenals) start a new Carlist war using the Cuban war as an "argument" of why Amadeo is a bad king and should be deposed. English gold flows in abundance to the Carlists in this proto-civil war and the French reluctantly join because that is better than a pro-Italy (and pro-Germany) Spain.

The Carlists see where the wind is blowing and declare their alignment with Great Britain, abandoning their pro-German stance held until then.

In theory this would be anathema to them, but they have two advantages: Great Britain prefers undemocratic but loyal monarchs, and the Carlists care more about taking power than adhering to ideals that they themselves do not believe in.

 

[Sardar]

What if the Third Carlist "War" simply takes the form of a smaller revolution/war? Would a "relatively" (this being the key word) bloodless Third Carlist War, enthroning the Count of Montizon as a compromise candidate be better? Or was his candidacy for the Carlist claim simply too far gone by the 1860's, and the Duke of Madrid simply enforce his will on the country if such a thing happened?

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

Probably very aligned with Italy, which could be a problem in the short term. Italy was in the Central Powers, which will make France feel surrounded and adopt an anti-Spanish policy to "contain Germany's Allies" - no, they will not care that Spain is not even allied with Germany-

Why?

The King doesnt rule. He can have Italian simpathies for his family ties, but the foreign policiy is in the hands of the government. He can suggest whatever he wants, and the government would act depending on the situation. Alfonso XIII was married with one of the grand-daughters of Queen Victoria. I don't remember Spain rushing to join Great Britain in the Great War.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

Why?

The King doesnt rule. He can have Italian simpathies for his family ties, but the foreign policiy is in the hands of the government. He can suggest whatever he wants, and the government would act depending on the situation. Alfonso XIII was married with one of the grand-daughters of Queen Victoria. I don't remember Spain rushing to join Great Britain in the Great War.

Considering that this is around the same time that France literally started a war with Prussia to prevent a Prussian king from sitting on the Spanish throne (in the belief that this would cause France to be surrounded by German allies), I wouldn't be surprised if the French decide to try to adopt an anti-Spanish policy anyway in response to this perceived siege.

Let us remember that they did not care at all about the fact that Spain in 1870 was not in a position to be of any help to Prussia/Germany in the event of a hypothetical Prussia-Spain vs. France war. Presumably that would not matter to France either in this case of a "pro-Italy Spain" (even if the government ignores Amadeo and do what they want).

And it's funny that you use as an argument that Alfonso XIII was married to a granddaughter of Queen Victoria, when it is well established that the Kings of Great Britain, Germany and Russia were cousins and went to war with each other anyway.

I don't see any reason why this kinship should matter more to the Spanish than to the rest...

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

It was you who suggested a pro-Italian Spain because of Amadeo, not me.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

It was you who suggested a pro-Italian Spain because of Amadeo, not me.

Because there is a possibility that having a relative of the king will encourage Italians to invest in Spain, which in turn leads the Spanish government to approach Italy because they want this relationship to continue, etc.

But I also pointed out that that wouldn't necessarily mean an alliance with Germany, and the rest of the post was to elaborate on why France might act rashly upon seeing this and react disproportionately.

I also pointed out that OTL Spain's (lack of) actual ability to be a military threat to France (and the UK) didn't matter to them in OTL Paris, so the same thing would probably happen here TTL

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

I don't see the point for an Italo-Spanish alliance. Spain is not in a situation to help Rome to achieve any od his irredentist objectives. Spain was a non entity in international politics. France could appease them with colonial treaties, like the one of 1912. Italy had nothing similar to offer.

Italian investors? Again, France has more fundings to offer.