New Year's Eve 1995: A hijacked plane destroys the Eiffel Tower.

In New Year's Eve 1995, a group of Algerian terrorists hijacked a plane and tried to use it in a terrorist attack in Paris(I don't know a lot about it but I think they would for a big, symbolic site such as the Eiffel tower). The plane however was forced to land, and French Spec-Ops attacked and killed them all in an overall flawless operation.
But what if the plane had continued its path unimpeded? Would that allow the electoral victory of Jean Marie Le Pen in the elections that year, given his strong nationalist, anti-"alien" rethoric? Would France, in the manner of a certain US President, invade Algeria? How would this affect European constructions, the relations between Europe and the Arab world, what would be the effect in the French left?
 
In New Year's Eve 1995, a group of Algerian terrorists hijacked a plane and tried to use it in a terrorist attack in Paris(I don't know a lot about it but I think they would for a big, symbolic site such as the Eiffel tower). The plane however was forced to land, and French Spec-Ops attacked and killed them all in an overall flawless operation.
But what if the plane had continued its path unimpeded? Would that allow the electoral victory of Jean Marie Le Pen in the elections that year, given his strong nationalist, anti-"alien" rethoric? Would France, in the manner of a certain US President, invade Algeria? How would this affect European constructions, the relations between Europe and the Arab world, what would be the effect in the French left?

MaskedPickle uses this in his timeline "A Giant Sucking Sound". I suggest you check it out.
 
LePenn could win but I don't see an invasion of Algeria. The Algerian government, I am assuming, did not endorse the terrorist attack. I think this leads to increased airport security around the world, so 9 / 11. The Taliban are still in power. Saddam is dealing with Arab Spring protesters.
 
I don't think the Eifel Tower Attacks would be as horrible as 9/11 and how thick is the Eifel Tower, I've never been to France.
 
Analyzed this in my TL. Le Pen elected is ASB, and the Socialists winning in 1995 too. Balladur either takes the blame or gets high on security with Pasqua and Wins. Results: French politics go well to the right and Sarkozy gets off earlier. As of international relations: the world becomes familiar with spectacular terrorism, maybe 9/11 is thwarted.

As Of intervention in Algeria, things had gotten well over the top there and with all the attacks in 1995 in France, things could escalade easily.

I Will maybe make a TL on it after I'm done with Perot.
 
I don't think the Eifel Tower Attacks would be as horrible as 9/11 and how thick is the Eifel Tower, I've never been to France.

Well, as for the structure itself it's essentially all-steel. That's not the problem (though shrapnel would be flying around the immediate vicinity). What is the problem are: the elevators, the ticket offices, the long lines to get into the ticket offices, and the restaurants and gift shops at both street level and in the Tower itself. Not to mention that the Eiffel Tower is also used as a broadcasting mast (so, in effect, a giant antenna). The Tower being successfully attacked would definitely disrupt communications in Paris (as well as the media, as several radio and television stations instantly go in the dark unless one has pay-TV or FTA satellite TV); would definitely cause a massive loss of life amongst the visitors and employees (including members of the French police who guard the Tower); and stuff like the elevators would melt almost instantly (depending on exactly where on the Tower the plane hits) - in the case of the elevators, part of it would be due to the hydraulics which are used, as the elevators roughly use 19th-century hydraulic technology.
 
The Eiffel tower doesn't come down the way the Twin Towers did, there's no floor in most of it to hold the jet fuel in place, so it's going to dribble down, burning off quickly. Most of the damage is going to come from the impact itself.
 
I'm struggling to see the logistics for this. The Twin Towers and the Pentagon were available targets because they are close enough to the flight paths for airlines that there would not be enough time to stop the planes between leaving the path and intersecting the building. The Pentagon is almost perfectly aligned with the runway of Ronald Reagan International, while Manhattan sits inbetween a mesh of flight paths for JFK, Newark and La Guardia.

The Eiffel Tower is not in such a position. The Flight path would be directed to either Charles de Gualle or Orly, most probably the former. In both cases, the flight path misses the centre of Paris by at least 10 miles, so more easily noticed.

Now we move on to the actual business of targetting the tower. I would think it most likely that to bring down any substantial section will require a direct strike on one of the corners, where the support is, and that any explosion will most probably only damage one support truss to the extent needed to cause critical failure. Theoretically, it might be possible to strike the section between floors two and three in such a manner as would cause an engine block to strike two trusses at once, but this would require a plane of the right dimensions (otherwise the wings would just be sheared off leading to the three sections crashing onto the opposite bank), and some very expert flying.

Striking the tower below the 1st floor is impossible without flying across half the city just above the rooftop level, and then attempting to cross the Champs de Mars at a mere 40m above ground level, avoiding the Tour Montparnasse in the process. Attempting to intersect the 1st floor can be ruled out for the same reason.

Attempting to strike between the 1st and 2nd levels or the 2nd level itself is more easily accomplished, but there is the possiblity that the top section does not collapse if the weight distribution altered by the damage is enough for the other three trusses to support.

Striking above the 2nd level is almost guarrenteed to cause the top to collapse, but will mean a much reduced death count, a harder task to target, and at least half the structure remaining standing.

Also to be factored in is that anything short of a near instantaneous severing of the topsection is going to mean that there are external staircases available for use in evacuations. Any strike at 2nd floor level or below is also going to leave at least one of these operational and potentially at least one lift.

And as has already been said, most of the fuel is going to leach away once it's burnt through the maximum of 2 floors/cielings that can contain it.

In short, I just can't see such an attack actually managing to be successful.
 
I'm struggling to see the logistics for this. The Twin Towers and the Pentagon were available targets because they are close enough to the flight paths for airlines that there would not be enough time to stop the planes between leaving the path and intersecting the building. The Pentagon is almost perfectly aligned with the runway of Ronald Reagan International, while Manhattan sits inbetween a mesh of flight paths for JFK, Newark and La Guardia.

The Eiffel Tower is not in such a position. The Flight path would be directed to either Charles de Gualle or Orly, most probably the former. In both cases, the flight path misses the centre of Paris by at least 10 miles, so more easily noticed.
Yes, but probably not in time to shoot the aircraft down, especially since a kamikaze style attack would not be expected.

And as has already been said, most of the fuel is going to leach away once it's burnt through the maximum of 2 floors/cielings that can contain it.

In short, I just can't see such an attack actually managing to be successful.
166 passengers and crew dead along with several dozen tourists on or under the Eiffel Tower (where you'll easily find several hundred tourists at any time) + heavy damage to the tower, even if it remains standing, does count as a successful attack to me.
 

The Vulture

Banned
Remember, the goal of terrorists is to terrorize. Success in this case simply means a nationwide reaction of fear, shock, and anger. Not completely destroying the structure or killing every last person within five miles of it.
 
Yes, but probably not in time to shoot the aircraft down, especially since a kamikaze style attack would not be expected.

166 passengers and crew dead along with several dozen tourists on or under the Eiffel Tower (where you'll easily find several hundred tourists at any time) + heavy damage to the tower, even if it remains standing, does count as a successful attack to me.

Going that far off a flight path will raise concerns very quickly, seeing as it either means intersecting the stack above Orly airport, crossing the entirity of Central Paris' restricted airspace or engaging on a very tortuous route around the city to avoid the two. Either way, I find it hard to believe that somebody isn't goint to decide that the new course of the plane is too dangerous to allow to continue.

And while a head on collision probably would count as a sucessfull attack from any point of view, it's going to require a lot more training and better flying to actually hit the tower. If you're out by just a few meters, the result will be a destroyed cockpit, the wings landing pretty harmlessly in the Seine and most of the plane surviving.
 
I'm struggling to see the logistics for this. The Twin Towers and the Pentagon were available targets because they are close enough to the flight paths for airlines that there would not be enough time to stop the planes between leaving the path and intersecting the building. The Pentagon is almost perfectly aligned with the runway of Ronald Reagan International, while Manhattan sits inbetween a mesh of flight paths for JFK, Newark and La Guardia.
Flight 77 was pretty much over Ohio when it was hijacked, and it then doubled back. Flight-plans mean little in this sort of situation.
 
If the plane has to cross Paris, he could still fare well: by these times, which politician could give the order to shot down a civilian plane above the most populated city of France?

The casualties among tourists under the Eiffel Tower would be high during Christmas vacations. I live next to the Eiffel Tower: believe me.
 
Flight 77 was pretty much over Ohio when it was hijacked, and it then doubled back. Flight-plans mean little in this sort of situation.

Though looking at things, it seems to me the most likely route to the tower intersects with the Tour Montparnasse first, which is probably both an easier target to hit and more likely to have a high death toll.

It's also possibly a bit counterintuitive to strike terror into the heart's of people by destroying the only way of broadcasting your deed to those not immediately in the line of sight.
 
Going that far off a flight path will raise concerns very quickly, seeing as it either means intersecting the stack above Orly airport, crossing the entirity of Central Paris' restricted airspace or engaging on a very tortuous route around the city to avoid the two. Either way, I find it hard to believe that somebody isn't goint to decide that the new course of the plane is too dangerous to allow to continue.

And while a head on collision probably would count as a sucessfull attack from any point of view, it's going to require a lot more training and better flying to actually hit the tower. If you're out by just a few meters, the result will be a destroyed cockpit, the wings landing pretty harmlessly in the Seine and most of the plane surviving.
1: Once over densely populated Paris, no-one will dare shooting it down.
2: That would be a "surviving" plane crashing into the Champ de Mars, killing most of it's passengers, or crashing into a building like the Chaillot palace, again killing the passengers and making additional casualties on the ground.

So, Yes: the attack might very well fail to destroy or even seriously damage the tower, but most (probably all) on board would be killed along with people on the ground. In any case the psychological impact on the French would be similar to that of 9/11 on the Americans. Perhaps somewhat less extreme, the attacks not coming out of the blue (the GIA was already causing trouble for a time) and there being only one aircraft, not 4.
 
Top