1999 - US Economic and Internal Policy
New Living Wage
Democrats, after the high of a successful 1998 campaign, were prepared to propose radical new policies under the leadership of Minority Leader Al Gore.
The goal was not necessarily to pass bills through the divided Congress but to show the country what a Democratic victory in 2000 could give them. This began with proposing a minimum wage hike to [OTL $12] an hour. Initially, Gore wanted to drive a wedge between Bundy and his poorest supporters but found this would be difficult. Moreover, with early post-war inflation so high, he believed that the past national minimum wage was “non-existent” and “unlivable”. To quote chief sponsor Owen Bieber, “the minimum wage needs to catch up and then some” although economists agreed that even with inflation, this was a significant hike in the minimum wage from before. After meetings with Ginsberg (who rallied enough left-wing progressives to force Perot and Lamm to support the bill) and Danforth (a leader of the liberal Republican faction in the Senate), there seemed to be a tri-partisan consensus in favor of this simple, but important, bill.
Bundy disliked the idea, however, thinking it would ruin his economic progress and “war against inflation”. However, he knew that he would have to more tri-partisan achievements if he wanted to win in 2000, and after being quiet on the proposal, announced he would sign the bill if it passed, which did to little fanfare. Bundy concluded that it would be a better option than other welfare proposals that would increase government spending. Importantly, he had made some friends on the Hill by doing so. To Bundy’s surprising economic growth continued unabated, and inflation did not spike nor did unemployment drop by a statistically significant amount (and when it did, it was in areas that didn’t vote Republican according to Bundy’s research team). Many poorer families were relieved by the minimum wage hike and polling showed more households experiencing economic stability. Markets also appreciated this sign of stability and moderation from the President, although fast-food and fast-casual chains saw a temporary dip on the NYSE that disappeared shortly for all-time gains once sales reports indicate increased consumption.
Bundy had to drop numerous proposals including a bill against absentee fathers, as liberal Republicans buckled up against him [A/N: Divorce rates a lower than OTL for a variety of reasons, though they rose by a bit post-war, hence this idea].
Worse, after a testy interview on the Buckley News Network, Bundy was even worried he would not be endorsed in 2000 by Governor Rockefeller of New York, even fearing a primary challenge. So he decided that Meredith would go on a trip with the Governor to two of the Governor’s favorite vacation and business spots: Chuvashia and Free Altai in 1998.
Trade Deals: Part 2
Post-war, Free Altai had become known as “the new switzerland”-famous for its beautiful mountains and world-class shopping (thanks to its interesting strategy of recruiting luxury brands such as Louis Vuitton). it had become a new exclusive hub for the lucky few to “get away from it all” as its remote location and beautiful mountains made it an exceptional winter retreat for the rich and famous. A few resorts had been constructed, but bureaucratic issues were hampering growth. Meanwhile, Chuvashia beer culture, had become world-renowned in part because of massive government subsidies and support (including a law that operated similarly to the Idaho Potato Commission) and the cultural staple, in part to encourage a national identity. The government had chosen the luxury market because this would make the exclusivity of the Beer (due to transportation issues) an asset as opposed to a liability. Also, regular consumers felt too much of an attachment to national brands. The Rockefeller family had invested in Chuvash beer in a partnership with the Chuvash Government to create these new luxury Beer labels which had become a premier product that replaced fine liquor in some quarters as the drink affluence.
A typical view in free Altai, 1998
On this trip, with his “frenemy” Governor Rockefeller, Meredith did engage in some important business for the President: namely negotiating trade deals. Working with his closest advisors, Bundy bet that trade deals that stood to make the Rockefeller’s a fortune would lead to an endorsement, and more importantly “sweet, sweet donations”.
Chuvashia and Altai were receptive for their part. Both wanted to move away from both the Freyist Pact, Entente, etc. and the US looked to be worthy partners. The negotiations went swimmingly, and Meredith would receive high praise for the favorable terms he negotiated
Altai and Chuvashia agreed to use the US Dollar as their national currency as their own domestic currencies were hard to transfer and volatile. Also, US firms would now receive priority beer shipments from Chuvashia while the government agreed to set an export cap to keep the product exclusive enough to be a luxury.
Meanwhile, in Free Altai, US Citizens would now get priority treatment on the state-owned Free Altai Airlines and Free Altai Resorts Chain (privately owned resorts existed as well, but not as common).
Visa Free Travel between all-three nations would now become standard, a rarity in the ex-Soviet world. In addition, Altai and Chuvashia agree to exclusively purchase US Commercial Aircraft and military equipment. Lastly, mutual tariffs on other goods would be lowered to an average of 1% on trade between the three nations. In addition, various regulations that limited US exports to both small nations would be lifted.
A secret handshake deal also outlines that the two nations would exclusively sell their fine art (during WWIII many Soviet and Russian Art pieces had been moved to Altai for safe storage and remained there after the 2nd RCW) and ethnographic art (both passions of the Governor) through Rockefeller dealerships.
Rockefeller was very pleased, and as he saw his luxury beer contracts improve and his art collection grow. His wealthy friends now had easy access to travel to Altai where they could avoid “the rabble”. The Senate thanks to the Whipping of Perot, who needed a pro-free trade win to keep his compatriots happy (not to mention his own pro-trade views [A/N: since the US is more protectionist OTL, Perot, ever the contrarian, goes in the opposite direction]. Late in 1999, Governor Rockefeller agreed to endorse Bundy again (also secretly ending any rumors of a liberal Republican primary challenge), while also publicly denouncing his previous views on Bundy’s personality and began fundraising for the reelection campaign. Revisionist historians would point to this trade deal as evidence that Bundy was not the “anti-special interests” saint he sometimes is painted as, but while politically important to Bundy, this bill did not move the needle much in the national discussion due to more important news on the war front.
After negotiations in both Altai and Chuvashia, Meredith would continue by traveling to Kiev to meet with the leaders of Ukraine and Galicia. After negotiations there, the Ukrainian Hetmanate (negotiating in tandem with the President of Galicia as part of their common market) agreed to an FTA that eliminated all import quotas (very common in Ukraine) and exempted the US from local content requirements. Tariffs did remain but were generally not as significant as these types of barriers. Galicica would also promise to remove import quotas of Polish goods, in a bid to reduce tensions. Ukraine had an existing deals along the same lines with most European states (Germany, Turkey, Romania, Samara, Georgia, etc.) and wanted to balance itself and retain “an independent foreign policy”, though they were connected to the hip with Galicia. Meanwhile, the state owned aircraft company Antonov agreed to have it’s non-military production bought out by Boeing at the same time due to its poor results, although many suspect Bundy may have had a hand in this. Antonov was very successful in military fields, as their products are used throughout the third world, but couldn’t compete with commercial airliners. Antonov commercial helicopters were also becoming relatively popular. Bundy negotiated this buyout in part because he wanted to protect the US aircraft industry, knowing that most of the old Antonov Manufacturing would leave Ukraine for the USA where Boeing could monitor quality control. The merger was primarily intended as a way to poach the old soviet designers;many of whom would move to the USA. Germany disliked the purchase of Antonov, and protested, but when Ukraine threatened to halt shipment of Beets and Beet sugar, Germany quieted down. Ukraine and Galicia also agreed to allow Poles travel visas. Thanks to the various trade deals Ukraine signed, the nation became a trading hub between East and West, which required in some ways Ukraine not to be in either the German or American camp. This was ok, in part because the FRR was focused more diplomatically and militarily on ex-Russian territories, especially those with oil and natural gas. Ukrainian cheap currency made manufacturing relatively easy, and the nation helped feed the Balkans and Germany. Corruption remained a serious issue, that would continue to haunt Ukraine throughout the period, but that is for another time.
Building off of this success, Bundy and Romney would focus on East Asian Trade later in 1999 and 2000. Bundy realized that these foreign visits made him look Presidential, and his embrace of trade and foreign cultures made him look appealing to urban voters, man who had warmed up to him for his “tough on crime” stances, (outside of the Big Apple) that is.
Bundy himself would travel to Vietnam later in 1999, where both sides agreed to eliminate all import quotas and tariffs between the states outside of US Auto and Milk Tariffs (which were currently not being applied but were legal for the future) and Vietnamese Carp Tariffs. Visa travel requirements would also be lifted. In return, the Vietnamese agreed to raise its minimum wage to $6 USD levels and establish a eight-hour workday, so not to undercut the US and to defend the labor rights of their people. The Social Democratic Government was ok with this, and in fact ecstatic that it could persuade more conservative Vietnamese that these initiatives would not “send Vietname down the road of Socialism and becoming a Chinese Puppet”. This support of an overseas minimum wage won support from more trade-skeptical businesses and unions which felt Bundy had leveled the playing field. The US responded to positive Vietnamese changes by using the IDFC to finance infrastructure projects-dams, bridges, airlines, and surprisingly, solar farms, in Vietnam. The US even agreed to help finance a large Elephant Sanctuary run and funded by a philanthropists and locals with the IDFC, per the wishes of environmentalists, although this bordered on the illegal. Lastly, the agreement also pushed Vietnam to shift from purchasing coal from China to the USA, a major win for West Virginia coal miners. All of these factors lead to an easy approval in the US Senate.
The Communonationalist Response
Democrats and Communonationalists in the Senate were weary of all of these trade developments, especially given recent developments in the economic thinking by a certain Paul Krugman.
Mr. Krugman, chair of the economics department at Columbia University had recently published some seminal works title “New Trade Theory” that were popular in Communonationalist circles that argued that the US needed to institute strong non-tariff protectionist policies (import quotas, content requirements, etc.) in “naturally monopolistic industries” (Krugman 1999) in order for them to survive.
While Democrats Minority Leader Marcy Kaptur and Senator Art Trujillo knew Bundy and his aides had not been particularly receptive to their initial demands for increased tariffs, they believed that due to close personal ties form his days as Washington Governor with Boeing, they could persuade Bundy to adopt some protectionist measures for the US Aircraft industry. In addition, they did have the support of moderately protectionist republican Senator Buchanan, who had voted against the Ukraine and Chuvashia trade bills. The US aircraft industry was very receptive, especially companies like Lockheed which had been devastated by US military spending cuts.
- All internal Commercial flight must employ aircraft built in the US and owned by US-based companies
- Al direct and “repeated” flights between a US and international destination (no layovers), must follow
- All federal employees must fly on US carriers or US aircraft if using private jet.
- These requirements are to be enforced beginning on October 15th 2000, in order to give airlines sufficient time to retool there fleets, with smaller fines at first, followed by larger punishments beginning on October 15th 2001.
However, Bundy only agreed to sign the bill on two conditions:
- That the Pataki Amendment, which increased airline competition by adding a lottery for “young and emerging” airlines to receive more space at airports currently “locked out” by existing airlines so as to encourage competition
- That the President, with the approval of the Senate could waive the content restrictions on a case-by-case basis for developmental projects related to technological growth (used for a special project shared between Boeing and Mitsubishi which we will discuss later).
While disliked by many of the bill’s initial supporters, and enough to make the existing airlines go from furious to apoplectic, the compromise was “worth it” in the eyes of Kaptur and Trujillo.
The Progressives, seeing this as classic interest groups politics, as opposed to bipartisanship (the official Republican and Democratic Party Lines) tried to rally a filibuster in the senate, but lost the cloture vote because they were unable to get as many “hardline” Republicans to defy their president in the name of ideology.
All CarFTA nations were exempted from airplane source requirements, provided they build the plane in its entirety, which would never be the case. This was in part because these nations lacked the industry or the cheap and/or educated labor force to compete much with US firms anyways. Canada and the UK would have been exempted by, except both had massive subsidies for Aircraft Production to beat Boeing, which leads to the amendment’s easy defeat in the house by the Democratic minority.
Citizen Donor Responsibility Act
David Boren and Dick Gephardt sponsored the Citizen Donor Responsibility Act that changed American Organ Donor law to require that unless it is explicitly wished beforehand by patients or parents, that organs of patients will be harvested, due to the need of urgency. Also, asking whether an individual wanted to be an organ donor at the DMV would be prohibited. Instead, it would be assumed one was an organ donor unless they mail paperwork otherwise indicating a religious or medical reason for exemption. In addition, those listed as organ donors were by law required to be given priority when they need an organ themselves. This move was part of a growing “Whole Life” ideology in the party. Bundy, and HHS Secretary Dan Evans and Attorney General Thomas, didn’t have any strong feelings either way, although concerns about federalism were there, the presence of AmCare as a federal institution lead Thomas to conclude that the courts would uphold its legality.
The campaign sign of the AmCare department of organ donations, often found in hospitals [A/N: Credit Eylondamovich for the Sign]
Some more fringe figures, including in the Natural Law and AKIP parties, would cite this bill as an “attack on religious conscience”, “an assault on federalism”, and “symbolic of an increasing conformist culture”, but since there was a massive jump in organ donations and a marked increase in the survival rate, no serious figures, either politically or religiously, opposed this change. Some legal theorists believed it would lead to a larger change from the “Explicit consent” norm, and thus a more authoritarian legal system, in the US, but this had yet to be determined.
Moreover, a suit against these requirements which went to the supreme court was defeated 9-2 (with Kennedy writing the majority opinion and Dershowitz and Schlafly, both more libertarian on these sorts of issues, dissenting)
“Knowledge Hubs and the New HUD”
GMI had made HUD a bit of a “lost agency” with the exception of course of the post-war rebuilding phase, as low-income housing and middle-class housing subsidies were replaced with GMI. The Office of Fair Housing, Lead Hazard Control Program and Healthy Homes Program remained, but this was not an exciting, nor powerful, portfolio. Rumsfeld had also specifically designed the reconstruction efforts to avoid a massive federal bureaucracy by reinstating the Community Development Block Grant system, which navigated federal funds to states and municipalities which knew how better to rebuild from Soviet bombings. Most of these funds were set to expire once rebuilding finished, but Rumsfeld had been forced to institute some “permanent community development” funds, to win enough support to prevent any real debate. Currently, these funds, along with funds from the Economic Development Agency (a New Deal relic that although whittled down by Wallace to fund GMI and reduced to 1 old building outside of central DC had managed to barely survive) were awarded at the discretion of the funds manager, who in January 10th, had had to resign after an audit found that the funds had been going to wealthy development communities which had lobbied Hugh Harmer in order to get funds to build frivolous entities like High School Football Stadiums, luxury shopping malls, and roller rinks in communities in the top decile of income like Harmer’s hometown of New Rochelle. The Great Southern War had covered up this minor scandal (harsh prosecution by the justice department helped as well) but Sam Katz and Bundy felt that HUD needed to be reinvigorated and the EDA needed to be put to pasture.
Thankfully, Katz, already had some theories on Urban Development that he was itching to “try out”: Katz had been arguing for years that since cities require more “public goods”-public transportation, parks, shared facilities, etc. that they deserved more resources than rural areas where individuals were naturally inclined to self-sufficiency. Moreover, because of this increased demand, cities would always have higher taxes than rural areas; which Katz saw as unfair to the Urban Poor.
Meanwhile, Katz had also been in discussion with theorists at the University of Pennsylvania who believed that given the information-heavy requirements of new industries in computing, engineering, biotech, and even old-school steel and car manufacturing; companies would be much more competitive if they were grouped together in major metropolitan areas with an educated base (as the result of local academic institutions) and/or cheap land.
Bundy believes that large metro areas are crucial to economic development because of the “knowledge bubble” effect and how businesses build upon themselves. But at the same time, he wants to ensure that enough housing is provided so that large metro areas are liveable and that middle-class individuals could be part of this new economies-both in the information dimension and in the large factory complexes that would make the products of tomorrow. Moreover, he did not want urban poverty and crime to dissuade companies from taking the steps needed to create these “cities of the future”.
Thus, with the help of Senator Pataki and the whipping of an enthusiastic Senator Lugar, Katz wrote the 21st Century Cities Act which outlined.
- Community Development Block Grants would now be renamed Urban Development Grants.
- They would only be available to the top 13 largest US metro areas by census population to develop facilities such as public transportation, business centers, libraries, and public parks. Budget is increased by [$1.6 billion] from the planned “post-reconstruction levels”. For this program.
- Moreover, the administration announces its support for opportunity zones in these large cities in a future tax reduction bill.
- To fund these Urban investments, the Economic Development Agency, long on the chopping block, is to be eliminated and its assets sold.
The EDA famously had its headquarters bulldozed to make room for a local minor league/high school/college/community cricket pitch. Lamm would joke that “Bundy is great at eliminating things that are already gone...but in all seriousness, good riddance with that trash heap”. Overall spending would increase slightly from this change, but Bundy believed that long-term the positive effect of eliminating the EDA would be a net-cost saving (though this is controversial). Bundy also believed that by focusing on knowledge-hubs HUD would receive positive ROI through increased economic growth, increased tax revenues, and a decrease in overhead (i.e. more money actually going to recipients).
While this bill received near universal support from Republicans and Urban Progressives, Bundy and Katz were forced to change the qualifications for receiving and apportioning funding in order to win some key support from House Democrats from smaller cities that wanted a shot at the money. Instead of going purely by population, cities/mayorships in the top 35 in population, as calculated by the mean of previous two censuses (in order to demonstrate long-term population stability) would submit bids outlining their plans, and the top 13 bids would receive funding for the next two years, with HUD monitoring progress and discussing other applications for the next round of funding (which would be in odd-numbered years every 6 years starting in 1999, even though the initial bids would be rushed). The Director would have to justify his choices in a document to Congress to ensure that political favors would not dictate fund destinations. HUD Director Katz, knowing he would be the one who chose this, accepted, knowing he would. In addition, removing single-use zoning laws was to be considered a “bonus” in any bid for winning a grant (although technically the choices would be completely at the HUD Director’s discretion). To win New York Support, New York City would be allowed to submit multiple bids per-borough (as done by private groups in conjunction with the Mayor) in addition to an “all-metro” submission by the Mayor’s office. Mayor Sanders, for his part, would use this last addendum very effectively, winning 2 cities’ worth of bids, much to Bundy’s fury. Bundy couldn’t convince Katz to rescind these bids for political reasons, but after better political news on other fronts, decided that it would be better for his legacy if he executed his policy “as written”. Besides, Katz reminded Bundy that he had rejected the bid from his hometown of Philadelphia.
The winners would be
- New York Metro
- Bronx Borough
- Washington D.C.
- Chicago
- Houston
- Orlando
- Miami
- Seattle
- Portland
- Providence
- Baltimore
- Boston
- San Francisco
While generally considered a positive move for the Urban development in these cities by encouraging effective management, rural Democrats, especially in the Heartland, which had not received any funding, would paint this as part of Bundy’s “coastal snobbishness”. Moreover, when Bundy rejected and attacked, a proposal to increase farm subsidies put forth by Senator Kerrey he was accused of hating farmers.
Portland Light Rail built using these federal funds
Stopping the Rise of Occupational Licensing
Bundy, while not as regulation-averse as other Republicans (which some biographers claimed was a result of living in Washington State) as indicated by his approval of the ban on BGH, was still at heart a Liberty Conservative. He also felt a bit of a connection with the “farm belt” western libertarian progressives like Ron Paul, even though they hated his drug policies.
Secretary of Labour helped the sponsors write the Ron Paul-Jon Kyl Occupational Licensing regional Compact Bill: which had two segments
- The Licensing Smoothening
- Frivolous License Banning
The first section outlined a legal process whereby states could legally form “compacts” whereby various licenses (trucking license, legal bar, etc.) could be transferable across states so that freedom of movement was easier for professionals.
The second section attacked the first inklings of a move towards onerous licensing tests and requirements on various lower level jobs that were pushed by states as a form of tax revenue and by existing businesses as a way to restrict potential competition. If these licensing requirements were enforced, states and municipalities would lose all federal funds.
Bundy's "banned licenses included those for jobs including:
- Florist
- Hair Braider
- Locksmith
- Packager
- Auctioneer
- Casket Selling
- Interior Designer
- Teeth Whitening
- Fortune Telling
- Shampooer
- Ballroom Dance Instructors
- Tour Guides
- Makeup Artists
- Cat Groomers
- Elevator Operators
- Cosmetologist
Democrats were very unhappy with this bill because it not only attacked “states rights” this help, especially in urban areas with more service-oriented economies, would deliver positive employment results while also bolstering Bundy’s re-election campaign. One unintended positive consequence was that various private “licensing agencies” would emerge to take the place of the government in certain industries. The general shift of priorities towards Urban and suburban metropolitan areas, helped keep the Liberal “Rockefeller Republican and “John Lewis Republican” types in the fold and made Bundy even more popular amongst the Liberty Conservative African American wing which saw this as an extension on the attack on “local and state tyrannies” and their “war on individual freedom”. Minaprogressives also appreciated this attack on "government interference in private lives". When speaking before the signing of the bill, Bundy let out a quip: “I don’t care if it’s the federal government, state government, or local dogcatcher that’s making people’s lives miserable…if the government is causing problems I aim to fix them” followed later by the more professional, but hash, remark of “federalized tyranny is still tyranny”.
This bill would be challenged up to the Supreme Court, but the court ruled unanimously in favor of its standing as just under the Interstate Commerce Clause and the precedent of other federal economic initiatives.
WWIII Memorial
While Bundy’s Presidency was happy, if incredibly tumultuous time, it was also a time when Americans had to close a chapter in history. Under Bundy, post-war reconstruction finally ended completely (although all serious reconstruction was finished early in Iacocca's presidency, certain communities had received delayed funding for various reasons including budgetary, logistical, and the need for preliminary environmental cleanup). Bundy had also ended America’s adventure with NATO and the “Cold War Internationalist” mentality. Organizations such as the Wounded Fathers hit their peak support in 1999, but would, decrease slightly as time healed wounds.
Meanwhile, the new millennium was about to come and America wanted to move on.
1999 would also see the opening of the World War III memorial in Washington, D.C. along with the WWII memorial in Los Angeles-symbolically chosen as the last two reconstruction projects. Although a controversial project when it was first put forward by Iacocca, much fanfare surrounded Bundy’s opening speech at the WWIII memorial (VP Meredith, in conjunction with WWII veterans Dole, Bush Sr. and Wallace would open the WWII memorial the next day). [A/N: The memorial is located and built roughly the same spot and design as OTL’s WW2 memorial, which wasn't constructed until 2004.]
Bundy spoke eloquently about the sacrifices America endured to make sure the world was free from “the Twin Heads of Tyranny”(i.e. Communism and Fascism) but remarked that “America continues to lead the world as a father...but as any good father America must let this reborn world learn from its mistakes...but that takes nothing away from the sacrifice of the soldiers, sailors, and pilots”...” we must never forget the great national unity and sacrifice made during the last war...come to terms with it...and wage peace in this new millennium with the same effort that we waged war in this last century…”
Summary
Overall, while Bundy wasn’t able to make as big splashes as he wanted during 1999, he was able to regain his footing after the Midterms and prevent his presidency of falling into the traffic jam Iacocca had gotten into. He built positive relationships both with “acceptable” Democrats and Progressives, and even if he had signed some bills that he didn’t particularly like, he had built political capital he needed and he still had 1 more year to use it, the only question was how...