New Deal Coalition Retained: A Sixth Party System Wikibox Timeline

Nightingale

Nightingale

Nice update. Wallace and Kennedy working together can unite the Northern and Southern wing of the Democratic Party. I imagine it to be like Trump 2016: Many people are disgusted about him, but it turns out that he (Wallace) unites his base and the party and coasts to victory.

P.S.How did you do the 538 format, @Gonzo?
 

AJNolte

Just read this whole thing today; it's fantastic.

If you need help on Indonesia, PM me; the development of pancasila in this context is going to be interesting, and I suspect Australia will end up inheriting East Timor if Indonesia stays close to China.
 

Lost Freeway

Banned
AJNolte said:
Just read this whole thing today; it's fantastic.

If you need help on Indonesia, PM me; the development of pancasila in this context is going to be interesting, and I suspect Australia will end up inheriting East Timor if Indonesia stays close to China.
Click to expand...
Sounds like a slightly better outcome than OTL.
 

The Poarter

Banned
The Congressman said:
Thank you my friend :)
Stay tuned. More updates coming soon.
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Also for Japan your also going to have to have their Prime Minister acknowledge the issues caused by "Generational Theft". See here:

4LJ5y


Basically a person born after a certain year can expect less than what they should be getting based on their skill set monthly. It all adds up.
 
Gian

Gian

Banned
AJNolte said:
Just read this whole thing today; it's fantastic.

If you need help on Indonesia, PM me; the development of pancasila in this context is going to be interesting, and I suspect Australia will end up inheriting East Timor if Indonesia stays close to China.
Click to expand...

Or perhaps East Timor largely stays Portuguese (mostly because the Estado Novo might get a reprieve thanks to retaining part of Angola*) or become independent.

*After all, it was the total loss of their colonial Empire that contributed to the fall of the regime IOTL.
 

AJNolte

Lost Freeway said:
Sounds like a slightly better outcome than OTL.
Click to expand...

For East Timor: probably. Basically there was a 3-way split among the Timorese between staying with Portugal, joining Indonesia or going it alone. Fretelin, the independence movement, was considered too Marxist by the west and Suharto was an ally of the west, so everyone turned a blind eye to the Indonesian intervention--a fact that caused a lot of subsequent guilt on the part of Australia and Portugal.

Here, if the Indonesians still try invading--and a lot of the logic, including trying to balance the restive Muslim population by adding more Christians, still applies--Australia won't hesitate to intervene, even under a Labor government. Got to burnish those anti-communist credentials and such. Also, given the fate of Papua and the death of the white Australia policy, just directly adding East Timor to Australia may even be a plebiscite option, and if they vote to join Australia Indonesia's going to have a hard time justifying their invasion to their Chinese backers, who may not want open war with the west so soon after Vietnam.

As for Indonesia proper: one of the secrets to Suharto's success, apart from the brutality and ruthlessness that generally attends military dictatorship, was his ability to keep Nahdlatul Ulama, Indonesia's largest Muslim organization and a bunch of raging moderates (or at least anti-fundamentalists) by global standards, on his side. This allowed him the flexibility to crush both the communists and the Daral Islam resistance movement, which was, as far as I can tell, proto-Islamist. NU was very sympathetic to the pancasila ideology, which explicitly supports theism, though not Islam per sey, as a pillar of the nation, and creates Duch/Belgian-style institutionalized support for religion.

So does the new Communist-influenced coalition keep the pancasila balance or not? Because if not, they're going to have some very serious problems. And I can't see how they do keep it under the influence of Madame Mao.

So TL;DR: Indonesia could very easily turn into a hot mess.

[I'm doing work on Indonesian Islam for my dissertation so it's a particular interest of mine].
 

AJNolte

Gian said:
Or perhaps East Timor largely stays Portuguese (mostly because the Estado Novo might get a reprieve thanks to retaining part of Angola*) or become independent.

*After all, it was the total loss of their colonial Empire that contributed to the fall of the regime IOTL.
Click to expand...

Oh, if the regime doesn't fall East Timor will stay Portuguese. Fretelin was nowhere near the threat the resistance movements in Africa were.

However, that didn't seem to be where this was going in my admittedly blazing fast read last night. So if the regime does fall, Australia becomes an option.
 

AJNolte

With respect to the American elections, I have to say I think they all make sense. I do think the rise of the new left is somewhat inevitable though, probably with their own Progressive Party which becomes the opposition party in much of the west coast, New England and many urban areas. I don't see anything here that will stop the development of TTL's McGovernite strand of foreign policy, at least in academia, and a segment of the population is going to favor a social democratic style combination of civil rights and interventionist economic/anti-poverty policy. I think that's pretty much baked into the cake at this point.

So you could see the development of the Republicans [libertarian conservatives], Democrats [populists across the board] and Progressives [what Howard Dean would call the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party], with the latter serving as a regionally relevant party that has to decide whether it's worth running a presidential candidate every cycle.

Heh: if you go this way people are going to get whip-lash as we get closer to present from the people that are in the "wrong party".
 
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