New Deal Coalition Retained: A Sixth Party System Wikibox Timeline

LastKingOfMaryland

Updated Senate map after the formation of the Progressive caucus.
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Byz

So let me see if I'm reading this right. Purple is one Dem, one Rep. Red is two Rep. Blue is two Dem. Yellow is Prog, Green is Prog/Dem, and Orange is Prog/Rep. Interesting.

If Dems are going to keep the Hispanic vote and Working Class Vote, I'm curious to see when California go Blue. Might we see all of the largest States (California, Texas, and New York) go Blue with that Coalition?
 
Bulldoggus

Bulldoggus

Banned
The Congressman said:
He's running for the open seat of President Pro Tempore Barry Goldwater
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Let's go. I'd love to see a real American hero kick the shit out of the """maverick"""
The Congressman said:
The map for the Democrats is very favorable in 1982.
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Thank God.
TheByzantineOttoman said:
If Dems are going to keep the Hispanic vote and Working Class Vote, I'm curious to see when California go Blue. Might we see all of the largest States (California, Texas, and New York) go Blue with that Coalition?
Click to expand...
I feel like that will be a hard coalition to maintain. Like, the Dems would be split on that issue, with a huge anti-immigration section in the rust belt and south and a slightly smaller but still powerful pro-immigration wing in the southwest and west. Hell some state or even city parties would be split on the issue. I doubt the people of the South Bronx would agree with their counterparts in Buffalo on this issue, and a it would be similarly divisive for Quincy/Lynn/Chelsea and Southie/Charlestown, or for the North and South sides of Chicago, or for a dozen other areas like the aforementioned ones.
 

Prince Daemon Targaryen

TheByzantineOttoman said:
So let me see if I'm reading this right. Purple is one Dem, one Rep. Red is two Rep. Blue is two Dem. Yellow is Prog, Green is Prog/Dem, and Orange is Prog/Rep. Interesting.

If Dems are going to keep the Hispanic vote and Working Class Vote, I'm curious to see when California go Blue. Might we see all of the largest States (California, Texas, and New York) go Blue with that Coalition?
Click to expand...
Good eye, except that according to the ITTL 1980 Census, "Spanish-American" immigration is relatively stagnant. The US actually saw a spike in East/South Asian migration, while a more stable Mexico and Central America keeps Latino immigration lower than OTL norms.
Bulldoggus said:
Let's go. I'd love to see a real American hero kick the shit out of the """maverick"""
Click to expand...
That would be the case... if McCain were living in Arizona ;)
 

Prince Daemon Targaryen

1982 Midterms

“Our President and our Party need every one of us to vote as one. My time to shine.”

-Roy Cohn-​


If there was a fertile territory for the Progressives, it was the Upper Midwest. This had been a progressive Republican stronghold for decades, only straying from the GOP during the Third Party challenges of Teddy Roosevelt and Robert M. LaFollette (aptly running on the Progressive line). The Democrats made massive gains during the New Deal that threatened the continued GOP control, but these were promptly lost after George Wallace and the communonationalists took over the party. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and rural Iowa were some of Pete McCloskey’s best areas in the 1972 election, and aside from Senator William Proxmire of Wisconsin the Republicans controlled every statewide office.

This all changed with the Return of the Bull Moose. The stampede of elected officials caused the Democrats to be virtually wiped out in the region, while the once plentiful progressive Republican ranks to take a serious thinning. Seeking to bolster the historical context that the “Return of the Bull Moose” label represented, the defectors used a series of procedural moves to sever the Democratic/Farmer-Labor merger that so characterized Minnesota politics during the aftermath of the New Deal. The new Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota was the state affiliate (similar actions were taken with the North Dakotan Non-Partisan League), and it licked its lips at ending the streak of Republican statewide dominance in the North Star State – namely defeating Senator Clark McGregor and Governor Al Quie.

Quie faced a difficult four years as Governor. A series of massive budget deficits and labor disputes had left him exhausted, and he was initially planning retirement until Republican leaders in the state convinced him to reconsider. The state GOP was terrified, seeing the vast majority of the Democrats join a quarter of Republicans in bolting to Farmer-Labor, including two of the three GOP lower statewide officials. The Farmer-Labor Party, convening in its first state convention since 1942, unanimously endorsed former Democratic Governor – defeated by Quie in 1978 – Rudy Perpich. In a show of unity, Perpich would select former Republican State Senator David Durenburger as his running mate. The beleaguered Democrats nominated former state solicitor general Warren Spannaus. The race would be contentious, often called the “Brother against Brother” election due to many of the candidates and surrogates having been party comrades not one year before. Perpich attacked Quie from the left on economics, claiming the budget cuts were merely “window dressing” for the special interests, while Quie focused on Perpich’s embrace of social liberalism as a reason to not trust him with another turn at the helm of the state.

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The results were as close as expected, but in the end the now-stabilized fiscal picture and a decent state economy had saved Quie in his rematch with Perpich. Spannaus and the Democrats were an also-ran by the end of the campaign, though they took enough votes to be accused of running a spoiler campaign. Even with the loss – as well as that of Senate nominee Walter Mondale – Farmer-Labor had become a force to be reckoned with once more. They held all of their house seats, picked up all lower statewide offices, and defeated the 12-year incumbent Republican majority in the state House of Representatives. A new party dynamic had inserted itself into the Upper Midwest, joining Vermont as a grouping of states where Republican dominance was now threatened, not by the Democrats but from the Bull Moose.

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Winning the senate seat of the long-time incumbent Senator Roman Hruska in 1976, Senator and former Mayor of Omaha Edward Zorinsky had compiled a relatively moderate voting record in the senate. Though George Murphy and John Chaffee could usually count on him, he would often vote with a slight populist lean on economics and moderate on social issues. He had seriously considered running as a Democrat in 1976 due to a highly competitive primary, but ultimately demurred and won by a mere 172 votes. Strom Thurmond would talk with him about switching parties often throughout his first term, but Zorinsky rebuffed the offers – regardless of policy or loyalty, he wasn’t about to serve in the minority.

He was beloved in his home city for the way he had handled a series of tornadoes in 1975, and was known for a good working relationship with his state’s Senior Senator, Democrat J. James Exon. However, the resurgent Democratic Party (having a strong presence in the Cornhusker State since George Wallace’s rural breakthrough in 1972) and the Return of the Bull Moose complicated Zorinsky’s efforts. A series of conservative votes for Phyllis Schlafly’s confirmation and a need to straddle positions on social issues so as not to bleed voters led to a well-funded Democratic challenge in longtime congressman Clair Armstrong Callan, who’s campaign blended Wallace-era rural populism with reform-communonationalism.

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The race was far closer than Zorinsky was used to as a popular mayor and his open seat victory by thirty points six years before. He was basically annihilated in Lincoln and underperformed in the GOP strongholds in the western plains, but the Senator’s hefty margin in Omaha contributed to the underwhelming but solid margin of victory. Unlike the Dakotas and Iowa to the north and east, the Progressives and their candidate Bill Hoppner failed to make much of a dent. The state’s electorate was far closer to the classic Wallace Democratic/Reagan Republican divide (the old progressive Republicans like George Norris and Silver Bryan Democrats largely replaced), hurting the Progs and preserving much of the old partisan structure. The Progressive Party would thusly direct resources elsewhere, leaving Nebraska with two-way elections for the most part.

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After a popular two terms, Governor Kermit Roosevelt had accomplished significant reforms as the soft-spoken yet hard-charging chief executive of the Empire State. The legislative “Prize Patrol” of a Democratic-controlled Assembly and Republican-controlled Senate opposed his pushes for further reforms (to expand that passed under Bobby Kennedy’s tenure), but were forced to bow to public pressure after both Ramsay Clark, James Buckley, and Nelson Rockefeller endorsed a compromise law. Roosevelt largely avoided social issues, blocking efforts to pass a Briggs statute in the state while also signing a further restriction of the Kennedy-era abortion law when it appeared on his desk. After failing to pass a term-limits law limiting the Governor to two, four-year terms, he decided to put his money where his mouth was and retire on his laurels just as the Return of the Bull Moose reared its head.

Both the Buckley/Cohn and Rockefeller factions knew it would be a tough race to run, especially with even machine Democrats lining up behind 1974 nominee Mayor James Griffin of Buffalo. Already owing extensive name recognition, his Stalinist reelections were owed to high popularity among even GOP-leaning blacks. He additionally obtained praise for the way he had handled a series of massive, unseasonable blizzards in 1979 and 1980 – famously saying that Buffalo residents should "go home, buy a six pack of beer, and watch a good football game," while city emergency services cleaned up the streets. This earned him the affable nickname "Jimmy Six Pack,” which stuck across the state. He was a formidable adversary, which caused the factions to approach youthful business magnet Donald J. Trump. A well-known real estate developer known for his charismatic style and taking on many public projects as an independent contractor, he was a prolific ally of President Reagan, Roy Cohn, and Senator Buckley. However, the Donald wasn’t interested and turned down the offers to run. Efforts then focused on businessman and former Reagan Administration aide John “Jay” Rockefeller IV, the nephew of former President Nelson Rockefeller. A member of one of New York’s premier political families, his moderate profile and youthful charisma gave him a ten point lead on Griffin right after announcing.

Griffin campaigned hard, appeasing the liberal wing of the party by picking liberal State Senator Mario Cuomo as his running mate and hitting the campaign trail hard, contrasting his working class demeanor with the patrician Rockefeller. Rockefeller used his name as a positive, tying him to his popular uncle while self-funding his campaign. The race was, however, complicated by the Liberal Party of New York – the Progressive state affiliate. Looking to capitalize on Senator Ramsay Clark’s strong reelection campaign, the far more liberal-minded minaprogressive party ran celebrity activist Gloria Steinem and New York City Councilman Chuck Schumer as their candidates. Running on a very liberal platform, they drew a lot of socially-liberal minded Republicans that were turned off by Rockefeller’s selection of Mario Biaggi as his running mate, while Griffin made up for it by getting a lot of socially conservative upstaters behind him. Rockefeller’s ten point lead was whittled away to a tie by election day.

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The race was as close as the polls suggested, but Griffin pulled off a decent win by just under 200,000 votes. While the map didn’t show it at first glance, much of Rockefeller’s upstate victories were quite narrow, and he lost the urban core of Buffalo, Albany, and Rochester by 2-1 margins. Griffin was strong among social conservatives, and won 25% of blacks – unheard of for a Democratic candidate. Rockefeller (who many Republicans suggested not to leave elected politics) was hurt by Steinem, who despite her very liberal nature rode the Return of the Bull Moose for all that it was worth, getting a decent 23.7 percent of the vote and coming a strong second place in many counties. Many observers thought that a less controversial candidate may have made a stronger showing. With Ramsey Clark reelected, New York became a peculiar state. Each one of its top statewide elected officials were of a different party.

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Historically as deep blue as blue could be, the state of Texas had taken a hard turn to the Republican Party in the last fifteen years. The last Democrat to win a top-ticket statewide race had been Lloyd Bentsen winning a single term as Governor in 1972, only to be defeated by John Tower in 1974. The state had been the cornerstone of the Reagan Coalition in the Senate and the House, the narrow Republican majority in the congressional delegation joining with conservative Democrats to deliver strong margins for many Reagan programs. For the first time in generations, the governorship was not on the ballot (Governor Antonin Scalia securing an Amendment to the Texas Constitution to have four year terms to be up for election in Presidential years). Therefore, as the Democrats were zeroing in on the state for their comeback, the highest-profile race was the Senate seat held by incumbent Alan Steelman.

The Republicans were united behind their incumbent, who sported underwhelming approval ratings as opposed to the popular George H. W. Bush. He was vulnerable, caught in a general southern backlash against the GOP during Reagan’s Six Year Itch, and a large cluster of Democrats gathered to take on Steelman. The winner was Lubbock-based, conservative State Senator Kent Hance, who defeated the more liberal Lt. Governor Ann Richards in a tight runoff election decided only after a protracted recount. A member of the right wing of the party, Hance reached out to the liberal wing of the party by adopting several populist stances on economics, vowing to “Protect Amcare and the social safety net from any wayward wrecking balls.” With the endorsements of Richards, Senator William Proxmire, and former President George Wallace (who campaigned for Hance in massive rallies in Houston and San Antonio in September), he proceeded with a fairly united base into the general election.

Steelman had never been that popular of a senator, brought in on the Reagan landslide in 1976 after incumbent Republican Bruce Alger (who had defeated Democrat Ralph Yarborough in a very tight race in 1970) inexplicably retired. The advantage of his relative youth was countered by Hance’s youth as well, pitting the change candidate who backed the popular Reagan initiatives against the incumbent who voted down the line GOP. His urban Dallas base was likely to stick with him against the rural Hance, but Republicans needed huge margins in Greater Houston as well if they were to defeat the Democrats. Normally they’d got it in recent years, but the race was upended by the entrance of Republican turned Progressive Barbara Jordan. Normally, blacks were as conservative a voting bloc as the rest of the GOP (though liberal in many areas, and with a large moderate faction such as John Lewis or Charlie Rangel). Not so with Jordan, who many considered a RINO – Republican in name only. With a large following among many blacks as Texas’ first African-American representative, Jordan’s entry threw a wrench into the campaign against Hance before it even really began.

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Solidifying its status as a purple swing state, after several red cycles the Lone Star State was painted blue as Kent Hance was elected by a hefty margin of 160,000 votes, sweeping Democrats into hefty state legislature margins and gaining five house seats from GOP incumbents. He cleaned up in the Democrat strongholds of rural east Texas and in the Spanish-American Rio Grande Valley and far west, while taking much of reliably Republican West Texas, his home region. He would reward them with a strong conservative Democratic voting record in the senate, becoming fast friends with both George Bushes while remaining a stalwart ally of his party’s leadership. Steelman carried the hill country and the GOP’s suburban base in the DFW area, but was dealt a narrow defeat in Houston due to a larger than expected showing for Barbara Jordan. Her performance was an anomaly though, mostly securing the percentage she did due to a sense of favorite daughter support by blacks in Greater Houston – rural libertarians, part of the Progressive base in the west, were turned off by her intense social liberalism.

The Progressive effort in Texas wasn’t all for naught. In a tight three-way race, local physician and former congressional candidate Ron Paul won a rural seat on the Bull Moose ticket, running as a member of the libertarian Dick Lamm/Ed Clark wing of the party. It was a green beachhead in the normally solid blue/spotty red state, and few were in agreement over what it would mean as the state grew.

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A popular Governor, John Warner had no trouble getting elected to the senate seat of the retiring Harry F. Byrd in a 60% landslide in 1976. He had blazed a middle of the road Republican record in congress. On fiscal issues he held the main Liberty Conservative mantle, voting for all of Reagan’s limited government laws and amendments (as opposed to his home state colleague A. Linwood Holton, who voted against the Balanced Budget Amendment and the repeal of the Pendleton Act, the only Republican to do so on the latter). On social issues, he was generally pro-life but generally in favor of gun control and against Briggs Statutes – but Warner’s biggest project was on foreign policy. Appointed to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he had been instrumental in pushing the Reagan IBM Treaty and several of the other projectionist initiatives through the Senate along with Committee Chair Pete McCloskey.

Such would have been perfect for an Upper Midwestern or Northeastern state, but in the still Dixie at heart Virginia – in addition to the conservative bent of Republican base – it opened up even the popular Warner to a tossup race during a good Democratic year. With Progressive presence so anemic they couldn’t even bother running a candidate, the good Democratic year was arriving. Initially thought to be jam packed with candidates, the field coalesced around a familiar name. Pat Robertson had wide name recognition for being both a famous television evangelist minister and for being the son of late Senator Absalom Willis Robertson. The remnants of the Byrd Organization rallied around him, as did the Wallace Democrats to give him a massive primary win against a Some Dude Kennedy liberal.

Though very conservative in even his fiscal policy (like his friend to the south Senator Jesse Helms), Robertson chose to run as a Democrat due his father’s legacy and Warner’s more moderate record on both foreign policy and social issues. In what Roy Cohn called the platform of denouncing “Soviets, Sodomy, and Sin,” Robertson whipped up a conservative frenzy against Warner, especially in the rural heartland that found itself fighting the growing urban cores of Richmond and Arlington. With economic liberals having nowhere to go with Warner touting his Liberty Conservative bona fides, Robertson largely kept the party together as he pushed for more traditionally Republican votes.

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Warner’s loss marked an excruciating setback for the Republican Party. Having won back the Governorship in 1981, the hope was to anchor the Old Dominion as the GOP base for the former Confederacy, but Robertson had dashed those plans by an impressive showing amongst the old Byrd Democrats and many religious conservatives, winning Richmond by the skin of his teeth. It also marked a shift in the Democratic Party to embrace religious voters, integrating them to the communonationalist tent while the ACLU wing defected to the Progressives.

Rapidly considered a rising star in the GOP, Warner immediately plotted his return to public office. His former colleague, Senator A. Linwood Holton, was up for election in 1984 – and the liberal Senator was greatly unpopular in GOP circles.

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Third time was the charm, or at least that’s what former Congressman Dave Obey hoped. The two-time loser to Senator William Dyke (or one time loser according to the most activist of the Bull Moose supporters) had been one of many former Democrats in the Upper Midwest to decamp to the Progressives, gearing up for one final run for the seat of the retiring legend William Proxmire. Democrats had largely triaged the race to focus on other targets in the West, Midwest, and South – their candidate largely swinging in the wind – while the Republicans charged forward under standard bearer Governor Bob Kasten, Obey’s foe during the Dyke recall.

The need for Obey – or the GOP – to appeal to opposing wings of their party was no more. The race descended into a purely base election, Obey and Kasten pandering to their core constituencies (though Kasten repeatedly sought entities to socially conservative Democrats and Obey to Kennedy liberals that hadn’t yet embraced the Bull Moose Party). Senator Dyke campaigned in earnest for Kasten, given his personal dislike for Obey, and it seemed that the traditional GOP dominance of the state would assert itself in the waning weeks.

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By 10,000 votes, Dave Obey had been elected to the Class I senate seat for the state of Wisconsin, defeating Kasten by 10,000 votes by sweeping Madison and western WI. The GOP kept its heartland in the east, while Democrat Patrick Lucey was swamped everywhere but the industrial mill towns and working-class Milwaukee. It was one of two Bull Moose gains that year, the other being in North Dakota where the open seat of Republican Clarence Brunsdale was taken by Democrat turned Progressive Congressman Byron Dorgan (his house seat taken by Republican Mark Andrews) in a close three-way race.

Reportedly, Senator William Dyke was not too keen on serving with Obey in the Senate, this being the man who ran against him twice in acrimonious races. Tired of it all, he planned on retiring the next time his seat was up. Dyke hoped a federal judgeship was in the cards, and kept his eyes peeled for when one appeared.

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After two successive landslides under the senate map, the GOP was always going to be on the defensive. The Democratic targets, aside from Wisconsin, were pretty much nonexistent. Longtime Senator Al Gore Sr. finally retired in Tennessee, being replaced by his son Al Gore Jr. in a strong ten point victory, while strong incumbents in West Virginia and Mississippi had no trouble. The overstretched Republicans did well all things considered, holding on to several of their seats by narrow margins (Indiana was the closest, Dick Lugar holding the D-leaning state by a mere 2,000 votes, while California elected Ed Meese to replace the retiring George Murphy in a tight three-way race that found Progressive Jerry Brown get second place even while Democrat Governor Sam Yorty was healthily reelected). However, they still took heavy losses. In addition to Texas and Virginia, Reagan wave babies in RI, MT, and WY fell pretty easily to the Democrats while Jim Rhodes and President Pro Tempore Barry Goldwater retired and were replaced by Congressman Tom Lukin and 1980 VP nominee Cesar Chavez respectively. It wasn’t enough to deny incoming Majority Leader John Chaffee a majority though.

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The Progressives made a strong showing. Both Pat Leahy and Ramsay Clark held on, the latter combining strong margins among Kennedy Liberals in NYC and on rural minaprogressives upstate to hold against a strong GOP and Democratic challengers. In addition, Dave Obey and Byron bolstered the Bull Moose caucus from six seats to eight. In the House of Representatives, Progressive caucus leader John Anderson saw most of the defectors reelected – though several of the incumbents were defeated and Barbra Jordan’s open seat was won by Republican Mickey Leland – and gained extensively in the west, and Upper Midwest, scoring outright majorities in the delegations of MN and OR.

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Even with the Progs serving as spoilers in many close races, the Democrats recorded strong gains that saw them recover from their record lows in the house. Bill Brock retiring to run for Governor of Tennessee (a race he would narrowly win), incoming Speaker Roy Cohn found his once massive majority evaporated. The GOP still had a plurality, but with no coalitions feasible they were seven votes shy – unthinkable even a year before. Eventually, the rules were amended to allow for the speakership to be elected in a first past the post fashion, but Cohn would need to make every vote count if Reagan were to get anything done in his last two years. A task he was completely suited for.
 
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