Nazi Germany wins: what next
- Thread starter Hades
- Start date
The V weapons were incapable of forcing UK to accept an armistice - even if the hypothetical Vx was used to attack UK with nerve agents, UK would just have responded by launching gas attacks on German cities.
And whilst we're at it, you don't even need nukes to bomb Germany into the ground. By 1944/45 British and American strategic raids were devastating German cities as surely as any nuclear attack would have. Even if Germany beats the Soviets, the Nazi's will loose baring political collapse in UK or US which by the late war is verging on ASB
And whilst we're at it, you don't even need nukes to bomb Germany into the ground. By 1944/45 British and American strategic raids were devastating German cities as surely as any nuclear attack would have. Even if Germany beats the Soviets, the Nazi's will loose baring political collapse in UK or US which by the late war is verging on ASB
With the Luftwaffe no longer needed in great quantity over Russia, I'm sure Germany could put up a tight defence or counter-bombing runs into London. They've got oil from the Caucas, remember. Bombing runs could work, but casaulties would be higher. Also, as the Blitz proved, bombing runs are not guaranteed to end a war.
In any case, let's again assume that the U-boat campaign was a success and Britain is starved into submission (which could have nearly happened). America no longer has an effective platform for bombing runs. A Fatherland-esque scenario, basically.
Look, the UK is a democrasy. Assume they have been driven out of Europe, they have seen the Soviet Union fall, they have been driven out of North Africa (would likely happen in a early Soviet collapse), they have launched numerous rather disastrous thousand bombers raid on Germany, killing some civilians but ultimately having a huge and unsustainable loss of planes. I can easily see them losing their will to conquer all of Europe, especially if 10 000 tons of nerve gas is dumped on London on a monthly basis over several years time.
After all, Imperial Germany, another constitutional monarchy, folded for much less.
One thing you people seem to be assuming is that the allies would have air superiority. They most likely wouldn't. Another is that Britons are ice-cold terminators. They aren't.
i agree but thats not the point i was trying to make.
the point was smart or not what do you think would the nazi response be to the allies nukeing there city's,if they still are in controll of all of europe an there fore have plenty of stuff and bases to retaliate with and from?
and don't you think that allied leaders if they knew exactly how terrible the nukes are would know exactly what the responce to them would be from a nazi germany still verry much capable of strikeing back?
first of all this wouldn't be like our TL if the germans win in russia most of the Luftwaffe would be transfered to the west also they would have more production capability (not sure how much more but some should be expected) from captured factory's and slave labore.
they would also have acces to alote more recourses, for instance those that pretty much screwed the me262 develepment and production etz.
so expect the air defence to be alote tougher than it was OTL....good enough for the nazis to actualy win the airwar....maybe maybe not but the allies are sure going to have alote higher casultie rate thats for sure.
political colapse of the allies is indeed abs,but maybe diffrent election results than OTL so that the USA and UK go for an strategy of war to achieve an favoral peace for them rather than total victory at any cost doesn't sound ABS 2 me remember that this TL would be alote worse for the allies and alote better for the axis,
altough the pod isn't exactly clear by how much.
I don't think that all of Europe would be speaking German today or that Hitler's plans of a german europe would endure... even in the 30's the domestic dissent and resistance of his plans were apparent, and the nazi regime's popularity just continued to decline. today we would see a much stronger, perhaps superpower germany, but nothing like Hitler's plans foresaw.
Just look at what happened to Soviet (looong) after their victory in world war 2, their power bloc broke down and collapsed in the early 90's, and all its radical communist ideas came to nothing.
Just look at what happened to Soviet (looong) after their victory in world war 2, their power bloc broke down and collapsed in the early 90's, and all its radical communist ideas came to nothing.
which is to say you sir are EVIL!!!!! any way this is a good thread on a Nazi victory https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=35802
any ways, i think that my people (the jews that is not the gays) would be all but wiped out. Slavs would live as slaves, gays would be hunted, a world of Nazis in control of Europe is unspeakably dark
It is my opinion that what happens after Nazi Germany wins the war ultimately depends on, for a lack of better words, how they win it. Let’s take a look at a possible “best case” scenario:
Russia
We are going to have Germany proceed with a “Moscow first” strategy and take it before the wet fall weather sets in (which halted the Germans in OTL- with Moscow in site). I know this is a topic which has been done to death before (both here and on other history boards) but let’s say for appearances sake the Germans pull it off (they are able to sustain maintenance and supply, protect the right flank, etc).
A regime change takes place in Russia and the new government sues for peace. Yes, there is some mopping up to do and partisans prove a problem but the war on the Eastern front, for all practical purposes, is over. What is left of Russia east of the Urals is licking its wounds -and planning revenge - but will not be a factor for quite some time.
Mediterranean
Malta is captured via airborne assault. Yes, the casualty rate is high (on the German side) but the end result is opening the supply lines for Rommel. With the support of the German High Command behind him (I am taking it for granted Germany is playing it smarter here), Rommel gets the supplies and equipment he needs. He proceeds to take Cairo and subsequently jumps the Suez Canal with the end result being the British forced off the continent for good.
USA
How can Nazi Germany “win” with the US still in the war? The title of the thread IS “Nazi Germany Wins: What Next”. Many posts talk about Germany facing nuclear devastation from the allies but, for all practical purposes, let’s have the US sitting on the sideline in OTL because the Germans are smart enough to not declare war in December of 1941. As a result, Germany does not have to face a nuclear build up or the threat of the D Day landings: just the British by themselves- all alone on their home island. Perhaps Churchill is overthrown and the new government offers peace terms? That would be a very firm and final way to end things.
I understand that this is a very favorable best case scenario for Nazi Germany – and I am taking it for granted they are playing it smarter (perhaps Hitler is out of the picture) – but, IMHO, if we are going to accurately and realistically discuss “what happens next if the Nazi’s win” then this is the best point of reference in which to discuss the matter.
Russia
We are going to have Germany proceed with a “Moscow first” strategy and take it before the wet fall weather sets in (which halted the Germans in OTL- with Moscow in site). I know this is a topic which has been done to death before (both here and on other history boards) but let’s say for appearances sake the Germans pull it off (they are able to sustain maintenance and supply, protect the right flank, etc).
A regime change takes place in Russia and the new government sues for peace. Yes, there is some mopping up to do and partisans prove a problem but the war on the Eastern front, for all practical purposes, is over. What is left of Russia east of the Urals is licking its wounds -and planning revenge - but will not be a factor for quite some time.
Mediterranean
Malta is captured via airborne assault. Yes, the casualty rate is high (on the German side) but the end result is opening the supply lines for Rommel. With the support of the German High Command behind him (I am taking it for granted Germany is playing it smarter here), Rommel gets the supplies and equipment he needs. He proceeds to take Cairo and subsequently jumps the Suez Canal with the end result being the British forced off the continent for good.
USA
How can Nazi Germany “win” with the US still in the war? The title of the thread IS “Nazi Germany Wins: What Next”. Many posts talk about Germany facing nuclear devastation from the allies but, for all practical purposes, let’s have the US sitting on the sideline in OTL because the Germans are smart enough to not declare war in December of 1941. As a result, Germany does not have to face a nuclear build up or the threat of the D Day landings: just the British by themselves- all alone on their home island. Perhaps Churchill is overthrown and the new government offers peace terms? That would be a very firm and final way to end things.
I understand that this is a very favorable best case scenario for Nazi Germany – and I am taking it for granted they are playing it smarter (perhaps Hitler is out of the picture) – but, IMHO, if we are going to accurately and realistically discuss “what happens next if the Nazi’s win” then this is the best point of reference in which to discuss the matter.
oke so now we have settled the PoD here is my go at how things would go.
with the nazi germany's victory never realy in question in this TL the original plan for the final sullution is going to be implemented meaning that those jews who have survived the labor camps and ghetos and what not, are slowly but surely shipped of to madagascar, starting whit those that are mostly useless for slave labor.
the nazis will go about to setup there new european order,while trying to to mopup the partisans in former soviet russia,states that have been there allies during the war or have played relatively nice while being occupied are rewarded with either extra land (think romanian bressria and rurethenia returned) or released from occupation like france, tough the nazis will make sure that the regime in charge is something resembleing the nazis and loyal to them.
other country's will be annexed wholey or partly into the reich i am mainly thinking of the netherlands and denmark here.
the economy of europe starts switching back partly to civilian production and reconstruction will commense this will be slowed by the enormouse building projects that hitler and other nazi big shots are going to undertake but not asmuch as one would think given the large availability of slave labor and the nazis disregard for the lives of those slaves many if not most of them will be litteraly be worked to death.
the nazis policies regarding the slaves will how ever make there collonization efforts of the east an failure for the most part with the exceptions of poland, the baltics and possible the ukraine where the SS will setup there own state witch will be officialy part of the reich but totaly ruled and controlled and settled by the SS, this will truely be hell on earth for the people living there,
the number of people surviving of the original population of the ukrain is dependent on just how many settlers the SS can muster, if they do so in suficiant numbers so that they don't need people to work the fields for them
total genoside is not out of the question.
as the decades go by we will see the reich will begin to slowly begin to be drafting away from nazisem either towards constitutional monarchy or an police state ruled by the military junta, either way the regime will let loose many of its former policy's either because the new people in power just don't want to continue with things like genoside and other horrible things or because they have just been proven not effective or unattainable.
economicaly the reich will be quite well of even tough it has to do a cold war style arms race with the USA at some point, because of the fact that they have lots of recources to exploit lots of slave labor (atleast in the beginning)
they also have a free market economy to some extend, think of OTL modernday china, state run economy in general but free market economy is allowed kind of.
they also have lots of other countries to traid with basicaly all of europe and probarly even the rest of the world inclouding the USA (witch had still some factory's OTL in nazi germany and occopied europe, i see no reason why this shouldn't continue if the nazis let them.
technological development in this TL will be quite interesting as i expect the the USA and the NAZIS will get into a space race far earlyer and for far longer, we could see space travel tech be more advanced than OTL by a decade or two while things like medical and possibly computer tech will be behind by a decade or so.
i strongly doudt that the reich would collapse like OTL USSR simply because the nazis will have so many of the people in the east howling for there blood that letting them go would be suicide, and any succesor regime would know that and while reforms are inevetable to avoid collapse they can't just say he you know what we where wrong some 40 or 50 years ago to conquere you and horribly enslave and murrder many of you so here you go have your country back and let us be friends oke....thats just not an option for them even if they would want to.
with the nazi germany's victory never realy in question in this TL the original plan for the final sullution is going to be implemented meaning that those jews who have survived the labor camps and ghetos and what not, are slowly but surely shipped of to madagascar, starting whit those that are mostly useless for slave labor.
the nazis will go about to setup there new european order,while trying to to mopup the partisans in former soviet russia,states that have been there allies during the war or have played relatively nice while being occupied are rewarded with either extra land (think romanian bressria and rurethenia returned) or released from occupation like france, tough the nazis will make sure that the regime in charge is something resembleing the nazis and loyal to them.
other country's will be annexed wholey or partly into the reich i am mainly thinking of the netherlands and denmark here.
the economy of europe starts switching back partly to civilian production and reconstruction will commense this will be slowed by the enormouse building projects that hitler and other nazi big shots are going to undertake but not asmuch as one would think given the large availability of slave labor and the nazis disregard for the lives of those slaves many if not most of them will be litteraly be worked to death.
the nazis policies regarding the slaves will how ever make there collonization efforts of the east an failure for the most part with the exceptions of poland, the baltics and possible the ukraine where the SS will setup there own state witch will be officialy part of the reich but totaly ruled and controlled and settled by the SS, this will truely be hell on earth for the people living there,
the number of people surviving of the original population of the ukrain is dependent on just how many settlers the SS can muster, if they do so in suficiant numbers so that they don't need people to work the fields for them
total genoside is not out of the question.
as the decades go by we will see the reich will begin to slowly begin to be drafting away from nazisem either towards constitutional monarchy or an police state ruled by the military junta, either way the regime will let loose many of its former policy's either because the new people in power just don't want to continue with things like genoside and other horrible things or because they have just been proven not effective or unattainable.
economicaly the reich will be quite well of even tough it has to do a cold war style arms race with the USA at some point, because of the fact that they have lots of recources to exploit lots of slave labor (atleast in the beginning)
they also have a free market economy to some extend, think of OTL modernday china, state run economy in general but free market economy is allowed kind of.
they also have lots of other countries to traid with basicaly all of europe and probarly even the rest of the world inclouding the USA (witch had still some factory's OTL in nazi germany and occopied europe, i see no reason why this shouldn't continue if the nazis let them.
technological development in this TL will be quite interesting as i expect the the USA and the NAZIS will get into a space race far earlyer and for far longer, we could see space travel tech be more advanced than OTL by a decade or two while things like medical and possibly computer tech will be behind by a decade or so.
i strongly doudt that the reich would collapse like OTL USSR simply because the nazis will have so many of the people in the east howling for there blood that letting them go would be suicide, and any succesor regime would know that and while reforms are inevetable to avoid collapse they can't just say he you know what we where wrong some 40 or 50 years ago to conquere you and horribly enslave and murrder many of you so here you go have your country back and let us be friends oke....thats just not an option for them even if they would want to.
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Deleted member 5719
We are assuning Britain would fight on after the defeat of the soviets. If Britain folded, the US would be forced to come to terms with Germany. No nukes, no Jews and Poland is a massive hunting reserve.
Well, ignoring my objections to the methods of this victory, three things are guarenteed:
1. Nazi Germany is utterly despised by large communities of the world. The Slavic survivors in Russia will be fleeing enslavement at best and execution at worst. They are going to hate Nazi Germany to the point where they will seriously contemplate a nuclear exchange against the country; nations like the UK and USA might not be at that level of hatred, but both will previous abuses. Germany will have few friends afield, and the USA and UK will paint Germany Tar Black using their own resources, if Germany's own actions are not sufficient.
2. Germany runs the show in Europe. Barring activity on the sides (Iceland, the UK, Malta and potentially Turkey) Europe is run by friends, puppets, and concubines of the Reich. Nations that allied with Germany will receive a good deal, ones that Germany has opted to leave alone and didn't set off its racial doctrines are going to face harsh controls but survive in a state comparable to East Germany and Soviet Union.
The peoples that Germany does not like? The Jews, the Slavs, and as a coming attraction, the blacks and the Arabs? The question isn't what happens to their states, but what happens to their people. I think that barring an outbreak of sanity in Berlin (don't count on it), these populations will either die a quick death in a death camp or will a slow one on the chain. (Technically, things will happen like Polish, Czech and Russian women will wind up having "German" children--but it'll be a open secret and the slavic identity is on its way out)
3. Germany's actions will lead to its surefire downfall. The indoctrination of youth at the expense of new weapons technology; the persecution of large segments of population based on arbitrary pseudoscience, and less known but perhaps even worse--the staggering corruption of the Nazi Hierarchy--and the system is DOOMED. When the next generation of scientists replaces the ones that grew up in Weimar, Germany has nothing to look forward to. Germany will drive its birthrate higher, but their military industrial complex can not even resort to espionage like the Soviet Union.
Now, the Nazis will make it for a long time. Unlike the Soviet Union, they'd have nationalistic cohesion and so something like Lithuania and Ukraine wanting out isn't going to happen. The Nazis are likely to go down either in a nuclear war against the West, by economic strangulation a la OTL, or because the sociology in place is going to be dystopian.
The last point needs more explanation. What happens in a culture where killing and abusing other human beings is promoted as a positive? Where children sing songs of cutting off the Heads of Jews? This is sociopathic stuff, and its a hard question because it has never been tried. The example of the Cultural Revolution in China is suggestive, but the Chinese were not out to murder their elders, while in Nazi Germany you'd have millions of young men encouraged to kill other people!
I am not sure how this is going to play out, but this could trash the country if it gets out of hand. And given the scale of things like the Holocaust...it may very well get out of hand.
1. Nazi Germany is utterly despised by large communities of the world. The Slavic survivors in Russia will be fleeing enslavement at best and execution at worst. They are going to hate Nazi Germany to the point where they will seriously contemplate a nuclear exchange against the country; nations like the UK and USA might not be at that level of hatred, but both will previous abuses. Germany will have few friends afield, and the USA and UK will paint Germany Tar Black using their own resources, if Germany's own actions are not sufficient.
2. Germany runs the show in Europe. Barring activity on the sides (Iceland, the UK, Malta and potentially Turkey) Europe is run by friends, puppets, and concubines of the Reich. Nations that allied with Germany will receive a good deal, ones that Germany has opted to leave alone and didn't set off its racial doctrines are going to face harsh controls but survive in a state comparable to East Germany and Soviet Union.
The peoples that Germany does not like? The Jews, the Slavs, and as a coming attraction, the blacks and the Arabs? The question isn't what happens to their states, but what happens to their people. I think that barring an outbreak of sanity in Berlin (don't count on it), these populations will either die a quick death in a death camp or will a slow one on the chain. (Technically, things will happen like Polish, Czech and Russian women will wind up having "German" children--but it'll be a open secret and the slavic identity is on its way out)
3. Germany's actions will lead to its surefire downfall. The indoctrination of youth at the expense of new weapons technology; the persecution of large segments of population based on arbitrary pseudoscience, and less known but perhaps even worse--the staggering corruption of the Nazi Hierarchy--and the system is DOOMED. When the next generation of scientists replaces the ones that grew up in Weimar, Germany has nothing to look forward to. Germany will drive its birthrate higher, but their military industrial complex can not even resort to espionage like the Soviet Union.
Now, the Nazis will make it for a long time. Unlike the Soviet Union, they'd have nationalistic cohesion and so something like Lithuania and Ukraine wanting out isn't going to happen. The Nazis are likely to go down either in a nuclear war against the West, by economic strangulation a la OTL, or because the sociology in place is going to be dystopian.
The last point needs more explanation. What happens in a culture where killing and abusing other human beings is promoted as a positive? Where children sing songs of cutting off the Heads of Jews? This is sociopathic stuff, and its a hard question because it has never been tried. The example of the Cultural Revolution in China is suggestive, but the Chinese were not out to murder their elders, while in Nazi Germany you'd have millions of young men encouraged to kill other people!
I am not sure how this is going to play out, but this could trash the country if it gets out of hand. And given the scale of things like the Holocaust...it may very well get out of hand.
For one thing, I don't expect a German population boom. Look at Romania, birth-rates remained at about two kids per family even with banned abortion, banned divorces, taxes for the childless, massive propaganda etc. The reason is that most people wants no more then two-three kids, and some of these people will for different reason never have any kids at all.
So, I expect Generalplan Ost to be carried through, but beyond that there will not be a great cleansing of slavs simply becasue there won't be a German population boom to fill up Euroasia like Hitler dreamed of. And when Hitler and the Hitlerites retire or die-off, the Chrustjevs och Nazi Germany wont really have the right zeal for that kind of stuff anyway. The assimilation of Germanic-looking Slavs will possible also be a force for moderation.
Slowly (by the 70's at latest point) I expect the Germans to transfer power in Russia to local nazi-loyal elites. Expect a Ukrainian state, a Volga state, a Muscovite state etc with German troops stationed in them. By then, I expect internal liberalization of Germany as well driven by youth dissatisfaction. In the end we might see a social revolution and a return to democrasy. It will be similar to the events in the Soviet block but without an economic collapse.
The Slavs will proabable accept the status quo by then. Their will to take back Poland, western ukraine and the baltics will be as weak as German desires for Prussia and Silesia is today.
So, I expect Generalplan Ost to be carried through, but beyond that there will not be a great cleansing of slavs simply becasue there won't be a German population boom to fill up Euroasia like Hitler dreamed of. And when Hitler and the Hitlerites retire or die-off, the Chrustjevs och Nazi Germany wont really have the right zeal for that kind of stuff anyway. The assimilation of Germanic-looking Slavs will possible also be a force for moderation.
Slowly (by the 70's at latest point) I expect the Germans to transfer power in Russia to local nazi-loyal elites. Expect a Ukrainian state, a Volga state, a Muscovite state etc with German troops stationed in them. By then, I expect internal liberalization of Germany as well driven by youth dissatisfaction. In the end we might see a social revolution and a return to democrasy. It will be similar to the events in the Soviet block but without an economic collapse.
The Slavs will proabable accept the status quo by then. Their will to take back Poland, western ukraine and the baltics will be as weak as German desires for Prussia and Silesia is today.
I think you kinda under estimate just how ruthless the nazis where on this topic, ever heard of breading farms for humans? also the nazi propaganda and indoctrination was quite efficient in a way probarly because it started at such a youngh age.
oke maybe a population boom might not happen but i would argue that there population would definitely increase probarly not to the point that there eastern collonization efforts would succeed (not in russia propper at least)
The Germans do not in any feasible scenario have anything like that capacity. Either in producing so much gas or even more so delivering it. Aldo for other gas weapons Britain had far better protection than the population of Germany, as well as the ability to deliver counter strikes in massive scale.
Imperial Germany was a military dictatorship that reduced its own population to virtual starvation because its leaders couldn't look beyond military production levels. It also didn't have a state that made it look sane and rational as an ultra aggressive neighbour. Britain might have been forced to make peace but its very unlikely given the dangers to Britain's survival as a state with the Nazis controlling the continent.
Once the US had entered the war there is no way the allies wouldn't have air superiority. Even if everything goes right for the Germans, i.e. Russia conquered quickly and the Baku oilfields are somehow conquered without destruction and the oil transferred to Germany and Goring replaced by someone competent - all highly unlikely events in themselves, then do not have the resources to challenge the Anglo-Americans in the air. The vast majority of the Luftwaffe were destroyed over Germany seeking to defend their cities from UA air attacks. This was even before the allies got bases on the continent.
Its barely possible to see Britain forced to make peace once the US is in the conflict but its virtually ASB. The only exception might be if the battle of the Atlantic was lost. If the Germans restore to gas attacks, even if in retaliation for nuclear strikes Bomber Command and the US bury them. The western allies have both quality and quantity, the latter in massive superiority.
Steve
I think that the best scenario for nazi German is the "Fatherland" scenario (nazis win in Europe,United States in pacific,
From 1945 atomic bomb for USA,intercontinental rocket and "dirty bomb" for Germany = cold war).
or this, or one atomic mushroom over Berlin in 1945-46.
No others solutions.
From 1945 atomic bomb for USA,intercontinental rocket and "dirty bomb" for Germany = cold war).
or this, or one atomic mushroom over Berlin in 1945-46.
No others solutions.
Why?
Britain have the Empire.
Canada,Australia,New Zealand,
and South Africa,India,Africa,Caribbean.
Britain have is own world.
Why not an isolationist British Empire?
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lounge60
Because Britain is a relatively small island off the rich and well developed industrial continent of Europe, which is now dominated by murderous lunatics with dreams of eternal conquest and delusions of adequacy. Britain is furthermore living well beyond its means militarily and currently allied to the world's largest economic power but one prone to outbreaks of Anglo-phobia and isolationism. Its a lot better off removing the Nazi threat now and its situation gets worse if it has to try and maintain its current military strength and fatal if the US slips back in isolationism. The Nazis might well bring their European empire down about their ears due to their own insanity and corruption but even if they don't bring a lot of the rest of the world down with them that's a hell of a risk to take.
Steve
Dan Reilly The Great
Banned
a couple things to consider here on this subject:
-On the subject of nuclear bombings, the Germans had no way of developing their own bombs without help, their scientists were going in the wrong directions, and the way the Nazi's were indoctrinating their youth, things didn't look up for them developing one in the future either. Even so, the V-bombs weren't able to carry nukes anyway, so it's a moot point. Meanwhile the western allies had complete air dominance in the western theatre, and they were using it to bomb the Reich back to the stone age effectively. So they are almost guaranteed to get an A-bomb through German AA defenses and hit a major city, meanwhile the chances of the Germans being able to do any kind of harm to the British homefront are slim.
-As far as the aspect of shifting resources over from the east to the west, any shift is going to only show marginal gains for the Germans in the early going. The Germans are going to have a massive Partisan problem in the aftermath of a Soviet defeat, so they are going to need to maintain relatively large troop levels for at least the first 6 months to a year, so the western front is only going to see a minor increase in German Troop levels, add this to the fact that Russian infrastructure is going to be a mess and that the Allies have been bombing the German infrastructure into powder and any troops that leave the Eastern Front are going to take way longer than nesissary to get west. Also keep in mind that any resources such as oil aren't going to be available for quite some time, since it is almost a guarantee that the Russians are going to commit to a scorched earth campaign within their own territory in order to deny it to the Germans. I can see the wermacht finally managing to capture toe Caucasus only to fine the oil wells there reduced to flaming geizers due to Soviet sabotage.
-Finally there is the issue of Hitler surviving for any extended period of time as a viable political entity. The fact that Hitler was able to survive until 1945 is borderline ASB when you consider just how many assasination attempts were made on his life. I read somewhere that there were at least something like 15 or 16 attempts on Hitlers life, and a lot of the time he seems to have survived by sheer luck. Honestly if you make any change to history, then one has to seriously consider the possibility that butterflies allow any one of the assasination attempts actually succeeds. Then of course there is the issue of Hitlers health problems taking their toll, whether it be the onset of parkinsons disease, or just his doctor keeping him hopped up on narcotics. Either way, political instability is going to play a major role in what happens next, whether it be through a civil war in the wake of a successful assination attempt, or just Hitler giving crazy batshit orders because he is either seriously ill or high or both.
-On the subject of nuclear bombings, the Germans had no way of developing their own bombs without help, their scientists were going in the wrong directions, and the way the Nazi's were indoctrinating their youth, things didn't look up for them developing one in the future either. Even so, the V-bombs weren't able to carry nukes anyway, so it's a moot point. Meanwhile the western allies had complete air dominance in the western theatre, and they were using it to bomb the Reich back to the stone age effectively. So they are almost guaranteed to get an A-bomb through German AA defenses and hit a major city, meanwhile the chances of the Germans being able to do any kind of harm to the British homefront are slim.
-As far as the aspect of shifting resources over from the east to the west, any shift is going to only show marginal gains for the Germans in the early going. The Germans are going to have a massive Partisan problem in the aftermath of a Soviet defeat, so they are going to need to maintain relatively large troop levels for at least the first 6 months to a year, so the western front is only going to see a minor increase in German Troop levels, add this to the fact that Russian infrastructure is going to be a mess and that the Allies have been bombing the German infrastructure into powder and any troops that leave the Eastern Front are going to take way longer than nesissary to get west. Also keep in mind that any resources such as oil aren't going to be available for quite some time, since it is almost a guarantee that the Russians are going to commit to a scorched earth campaign within their own territory in order to deny it to the Germans. I can see the wermacht finally managing to capture toe Caucasus only to fine the oil wells there reduced to flaming geizers due to Soviet sabotage.
-Finally there is the issue of Hitler surviving for any extended period of time as a viable political entity. The fact that Hitler was able to survive until 1945 is borderline ASB when you consider just how many assasination attempts were made on his life. I read somewhere that there were at least something like 15 or 16 attempts on Hitlers life, and a lot of the time he seems to have survived by sheer luck. Honestly if you make any change to history, then one has to seriously consider the possibility that butterflies allow any one of the assasination attempts actually succeeds. Then of course there is the issue of Hitlers health problems taking their toll, whether it be the onset of parkinsons disease, or just his doctor keeping him hopped up on narcotics. Either way, political instability is going to play a major role in what happens next, whether it be through a civil war in the wake of a successful assination attempt, or just Hitler giving crazy batshit orders because he is either seriously ill or high or both.