Napoléonic Outcomes: Unfathomable Luck or Sheer Ambition?

[Did I Stutter?]

At home and reading, it really dawned on me how absurd history is when looking at specific pods and unprobable events. Some of the greatest figures in history have been able to benefit from more than one of these.

When it comes to Napoléon and his family, it seems as if the outcomes that happened were due to much luck or much ambition or a mixture of the two. These four events are the focus of the thread, though please feel free to comment other situations like these that can be added.

1. Escape from Egypt

• Napoleon left Egypt in 1799 when the British blockade of the French ports was briefly lifted. Through thick and thin, he managed to sail all the way across the Mediterranean and landed in southeastern France just as 10 British ships closed in.

2. Coup of 18 Brumaire

• Later in 1799, Napoleon staged a coup and overthrew the Directory to set up the French Consulate, headed by himself and a virtual stepping stone to becoming emperor. Though an obvious risk at the start, the coup ended without any bloodshed, though Napoleon was nearly assaulted and attacked by members of the Council of Five Hundred.

3. Escape from Elba + Returning to the Throne

• The most famous these moments in Bonaparte history, Napoleon escaped from his exile in Elba and not only made it past the British ships but successfully landed in France and rode a wave of euphoria back to the throne. This is the event that boggles my mind the most, and makes the legend of Napoleon near unrivaled.

4. Napoléon III rise to Emperor

• The fact that even after all of this, Napoleons nephew was able to maneuver his way out of exile, into the presidency, and eventually into becoming emperor is a set of events that is undervalued in its ingenuity (or luck).

Of these four events, which were more due to amazing luck in that these Bonapartes not only were not compromised, but went so far as to succeed in their immediate goals? Which were more due to the seemingly unstoppable will of the Bonapartes in their quest for ultimate glory and power?

 

[Alex Zetsu]

2 was not that improbable. Also, his tactics in the War of the Third Coalition was him, not just blundering into luck (like some guy suggesting dragging cannons in a method that requires 3 inches of snow on the ground in one place, the river open in another place, and more snow for his sleds in the third place...).

As for everything else you say... that's fairly improbable. 1,3,4 involved lots of luck. I wouldn't even say 3 helped him at all, so don't count that as good luck to him. It just gave him some Hundred Days but he didn't stabilize his throne. 1 is a bad offender, his career nearly ended prematurely.

For later on, it helps that the Republicans were doing a bad job of running things, if it wasn't Nappy III, then some Oreanist royalsit was likely to take the stage, so once he was prez it was easy. As for getting to be president, well... I suppose you can argue that divine providence playing a role explains a lot

 

[Did I Stutter?]

2 was not that improbable. Also, his tactics in the War of the Third Coalition was him, not just blundering into luck (like some guy suggesting dragging cannons in a method that requires 3 inches of snow on the ground in one place, the river open in another place, and more snow for his sleds in the third place...).

As for everything else you say... that's fairly improbable. 1,3,4 involved lots of luck. I wouldn't even say 3 helped him at all, so don't count that as good luck to him. It just gave him some Hundred Days but he didn't stabilize his throne. 1 is a bad offender, his career nearly ended prematurely.

For later on, it helps that the Republicans were doing a bad job of running things, if it wasn't Nappy III, then some Oreanist royalsit was likely to take the stage, so once he was prez it was easy. As for getting to be president, well... I suppose you can argue that divine providence playing a role explains a lot

Of 1, 3, and 4, which do you feel was the “craziest” for Napoléon or Napoléon III to have undertaken?

I feel Napoléon had little choice but to leave Egypt because it seemed he was starting to be closed in on by the British. As for 3, I do not think it was that outlandish, as Napoléon had a chance of making it to France, though the fact that not one disgruntled individual shot him is mind boggling.

As for Napoléon III, I think that’s some of that insane Bonaparte ambition and longing to complete the imperial dream stuff. The amount of sheer chance that he must have understood had to happen is almost lunatic like. Did Napoleon III always have his heart bent on becoming emperor? Or do you think he just took that opportunity when it finally came?

 

[Alex Zetsu]

Of 1, 3, and 4, which do you feel was the “craziest” for Napoléon or Napoléon III to have undertaken?

...

As for Napoléon III, I think that’s some of that insane Bonaparte ambition and longing to complete the imperial dream stuff. The amount of sheer chance that he must have understood had to happen is almost lunatic like. Did Napoleon III always have his heart bent on becoming emperor? Or do you think he just took that opportunity when it finally came?

I'd have to say Napoleon escaping Egypt was the craziest thing to help Bonaparte power. Escaping was a good option once the British Fleet crushed the French one, but Nappy actually succeeding in that wasn't all that likely and 7 times out of 8, his career would be cut short.

The escape from Elba wasn't all that outlandish and even if it was, it wasn't a crazy outlandish thing that helped Bonaparte power. Heck, sticking around Elba might have made things easier for his family members to come to power later. However... http://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/what-if-napoleon-stayed-in-elba.423270/#post-15361441 the Bourbons weren't giving him the promised stipend so eventually he would have to decide between maintaining the estate at Elba, eating like the poorest nobles 6 days of the week, or trying to take back France. Since the last one didn't work, he might as well have lived like an impoverished nobleman on Elba which would be better than his OTL outcome. Also, living like a poor nobleman probably hurts Bonaparte prestige less than his smackdown at Waterloo.

I already said that the situation in France was perfect for some monarchism going. Judging form the situation three years before Nappy III got elected, Most likely the Orleanist party would have come to power and completed a Restoration with a monarch with some but not absolute power. Getting elected was the hard part, completing the transition to Emperor is easy for a president with royal(ish) blood. I don't know if he set his sights on replicating his uncle before he was president. The most realistic thing to do before he rode a wave of popular support was to wait in the shadows of the future restorationists and get a nice cushy position. Once he somehow became president, the Bonaparte ambition was very realistic.