Middle East alignment in Nazi victory scenario
- Thread starter Horton229
- Start date
thaddeus
Donor
there is a recent thread about the Allies proceeding with Operation Pike bombing of Soviet oilfields https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/allies-go-ahead-with-“operation-pike”.529320/
you could have a very cynical deal where the British concede Iraq to the Nazi regime to "gas up their tanks" for an invasion of the USSR? thus Syria and Iraq with Arab Nationalist regimes backed by Germany.
you could have a very cynical deal where the British concede Iraq to the Nazi regime to "gas up their tanks" for an invasion of the USSR? thus Syria and Iraq with Arab Nationalist regimes backed by Germany.
Arab nationalist ties with the Axis were based on wartime convenience and would not carry over post war. Between Axis control of North Africa and Syria+ Lebanon, Arab nationalism is a dangerous force for the Axis. This is without going into Italian territorial desires on Egypt or other Arab nations.
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WildBoulder
Banned
Egypt, Iraq, Iran and Jordan would remain in the British sphere of influence and any pro-Axis movement would be relentlessly crushed by the British. The Suez Canal would remain in British hands indefinitely. A sort of Quincy Pact would still be signed and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States would also be in the Allies' sphere of influence.
Syria and Lebanon would probably be in a single state, set up by the Nazis and led by the social-nationalist party of Antoun Saadé. North Yemen would be aligned with the Italians in order to preserve its independence. Turkey would, also, surely have ended up joining the Axis, especially if Germany gave it territories such as the Eastern Aegan Greek Islands, Alexandroúpolis or Nakhchivan.
I don't even want to imagine what would have happened in Palestine after Rommel's troops reached the Jordan River. Walter Rauff's SS would have certainly landed and slaughtered everyone, with the help of Palestinian auxiliary troops who would have had a field day ridding Palestine of Jews. After the cease-fire between the British and the Nazis, the British would have imposed a democratic regime on Palestine (now ethnically homogeneous), with Ahmed Hilmi Pasha in power, and there would have been a big sweep to do on the thousands of Arabs who would have taken part in the Holocaust of the Jews of Palestine... (and it's with the extermination of the Jews of Palestine that there could be an electroshock in the United States and the United Kingdom, because the two countries didn't really care about the Shoah in OTL)
Syria and Lebanon would probably be in a single state, set up by the Nazis and led by the social-nationalist party of Antoun Saadé. North Yemen would be aligned with the Italians in order to preserve its independence. Turkey would, also, surely have ended up joining the Axis, especially if Germany gave it territories such as the Eastern Aegan Greek Islands, Alexandroúpolis or Nakhchivan.
I don't even want to imagine what would have happened in Palestine after Rommel's troops reached the Jordan River. Walter Rauff's SS would have certainly landed and slaughtered everyone, with the help of Palestinian auxiliary troops who would have had a field day ridding Palestine of Jews. After the cease-fire between the British and the Nazis, the British would have imposed a democratic regime on Palestine (now ethnically homogeneous), with Ahmed Hilmi Pasha in power, and there would have been a big sweep to do on the thousands of Arabs who would have taken part in the Holocaust of the Jews of Palestine... (and it's with the extermination of the Jews of Palestine that there could be an electroshock in the United States and the United Kingdom, because the two countries didn't really care about the Shoah in OTL)
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These are mostly places that rapidly decolonized in the 1940s and 50s in OTL, so I'm quite skeptical of Britain's ability to hold onto them in an Axis victory. Iraq, having already had a pro-Axis government for a short while during the war until the Allies retook control, is probably breaking away as in OTL. Same goes with Egypt; while it's still likely that the Allies would win out in the North African theatre, the fact remains that the British-backed monarchy was highly unpopular, so I don't see them lasting long. Free France, on a shaky foundation from the get-go, would have a much harder time holding onto what's left of its colonial empire than the Fourth Republic in OTL, so Syria won't be a French mandate for long either. Iran, given its rivalry with Iraq and that it was fairly democratic at the time, could remain aligned with the Allies so long as they don't undermine it or launch any coups like in OTL. The countries of the Arabian Peninsula would also likely remain on the Allied side, as would Kuwait. Algeria would likely be the political centre of Free France, with Morocco, Tunisia, and Libya in its sphere.
The Axis would of course be taking full advantage of the situation and would be courting Egypt, Syria, and Iraq, backing pan-Arabism and emphasizing the struggle against their supposed common enemies of Britain and France, communism, and zionism. On the other hand, while these countries' populations were largely anti-colonialist and anti-zionist, they didn't seem particularly pro-Axis, thus the pro-Axis post-colonial governments likely couldn't demand much of them in the way of sacrifices for the Axis powers (so Germany won't be getting much out of them for proxy wars with the Allies). Germany would need to use a longer leash than with Vichy France or Fascist Italy, and when it starts falling apart (as it's bound to eventually), their Middle Eastern allies would be some of the first to be looking for ways to cut them loose and/or stab them in the back.
The Axis would of course be taking full advantage of the situation and would be courting Egypt, Syria, and Iraq, backing pan-Arabism and emphasizing the struggle against their supposed common enemies of Britain and France, communism, and zionism. On the other hand, while these countries' populations were largely anti-colonialist and anti-zionist, they didn't seem particularly pro-Axis, thus the pro-Axis post-colonial governments likely couldn't demand much of them in the way of sacrifices for the Axis powers (so Germany won't be getting much out of them for proxy wars with the Allies). Germany would need to use a longer leash than with Vichy France or Fascist Italy, and when it starts falling apart (as it's bound to eventually), their Middle Eastern allies would be some of the first to be looking for ways to cut them loose and/or stab them in the back.
Why so confident FF is centered in Algeria/NA. Vichy France (now France) is allied with Germany. Does FF survive an early end to WW2?
Going to copy and paste what I wrote about Iran in a similar thread:
I guess the question is what sort of terms is the armistice with the UK signed upon? If the Italo-German forces have broken the British power in Egypt and the Levant, it’s going to be a very different politics than if the situation in the region returns to status quo ante bellum.
If it’s the latter, I can imagine Italian companies from the newly organized Levantine colonies and German corporations/projects from the Caucasian Commissariat being influential in Persia. Trade with the two fascist powers will make up a good portion of the Persian economy, especially with Nazi steamers on the Caspian. It will be very awkward though, because they still have British India to their east, which remains standing if Japan is defeated. Of course, I’m sure it’ll be rumbling with anti-colonial revolution soon though and that’s a whole extra can of worms. If Britain feels it needs to try and prevent more imperial retreats after their loss to Nazism, the Indian subcontinent could get ugly and revolutionary fervor could leak into Persia. I’m sure the rump Allies will see influence in Iran as an absolutely crucial striking point and will seek to maintain sway, while the Italians and Germans will be running their own games in Tehran. It’ll be an absolute spiders web of international politicking I imagine. The Anglo-Persian Oil Company has likely already been dissolved and the Italians have tried to establish their own monopoly. In this context, Mossadeq would probably be tolerated as a friend to the Allies I think. Could be a very interesting scenario.
If the British maintain themselves in Iraq, Jordan, Palestine, etc. the Persia will have to deal with the uneasy situation with the Third Reich now occupying Azerbaijan and the greater Caucasus. As mentioned, the swastika flies over Caspian ports like the former Astrakhan (Astrachan? Richthofenburg?) and they will still probably trade with the Nazis as well as the British. The Anglo-Persian Oil Company stands and the British still have strong influence in the Persian government. I could see a power struggle emerging between the entrenched pro-Allied elite and an emerging nationalist faction that looks to the Axis for help. Very similar situation to what Iraq was like during the OTL Second World War… Mossadeq and his types would be considered a threat to Allied political and economic interests and would be dealt with similar to OTL or harsher in the interests of keeping together the international anti-fascist coalition by force. Given the situation though, I think an alt National Front would have more room to maneuver.
Of course, we also need to consider what effect the Soviet collapse would have on an Iranian government. 1950s Iranian politics was absolutely colored by the experience of Allied occupations and Soviet influence in the north. Now, they have the Third Reich, the British Empire, maybe the Italians, and then whatever remnant state (or more likely, states) exist in Central Asia. Maybe an Allied mandate is established there via Raj forces after the conclusion of the war with Japan?? I could see that being the case and it’s actually something I don’t think I’ve ever seen in an Axis Victory TL. Either way, something similar to the National Front is likely to still form but it’ll be different. Weakened left wing elements? Stronger ones? I can see the argument for both. A pseudo-fascist party? Strongly doubt that.. it’s within the realm of plausibility but fascism wasn’t really exported in the same ways communism was and Iran’s socio-economic development didn’t really lend itself to that style of politics anyway. A National Front that might cater vaguely fascist talking points to curry favor and funding from the Axis powers? Could absolutely see that.
Would love to see what others think.
I guess the question is what sort of terms is the armistice with the UK signed upon? If the Italo-German forces have broken the British power in Egypt and the Levant, it’s going to be a very different politics than if the situation in the region returns to status quo ante bellum.
If it’s the latter, I can imagine Italian companies from the newly organized Levantine colonies and German corporations/projects from the Caucasian Commissariat being influential in Persia. Trade with the two fascist powers will make up a good portion of the Persian economy, especially with Nazi steamers on the Caspian. It will be very awkward though, because they still have British India to their east, which remains standing if Japan is defeated. Of course, I’m sure it’ll be rumbling with anti-colonial revolution soon though and that’s a whole extra can of worms. If Britain feels it needs to try and prevent more imperial retreats after their loss to Nazism, the Indian subcontinent could get ugly and revolutionary fervor could leak into Persia. I’m sure the rump Allies will see influence in Iran as an absolutely crucial striking point and will seek to maintain sway, while the Italians and Germans will be running their own games in Tehran. It’ll be an absolute spiders web of international politicking I imagine. The Anglo-Persian Oil Company has likely already been dissolved and the Italians have tried to establish their own monopoly. In this context, Mossadeq would probably be tolerated as a friend to the Allies I think. Could be a very interesting scenario.
If the British maintain themselves in Iraq, Jordan, Palestine, etc. the Persia will have to deal with the uneasy situation with the Third Reich now occupying Azerbaijan and the greater Caucasus. As mentioned, the swastika flies over Caspian ports like the former Astrakhan (Astrachan? Richthofenburg?) and they will still probably trade with the Nazis as well as the British. The Anglo-Persian Oil Company stands and the British still have strong influence in the Persian government. I could see a power struggle emerging between the entrenched pro-Allied elite and an emerging nationalist faction that looks to the Axis for help. Very similar situation to what Iraq was like during the OTL Second World War… Mossadeq and his types would be considered a threat to Allied political and economic interests and would be dealt with similar to OTL or harsher in the interests of keeping together the international anti-fascist coalition by force. Given the situation though, I think an alt National Front would have more room to maneuver.
Of course, we also need to consider what effect the Soviet collapse would have on an Iranian government. 1950s Iranian politics was absolutely colored by the experience of Allied occupations and Soviet influence in the north. Now, they have the Third Reich, the British Empire, maybe the Italians, and then whatever remnant state (or more likely, states) exist in Central Asia. Maybe an Allied mandate is established there via Raj forces after the conclusion of the war with Japan?? I could see that being the case and it’s actually something I don’t think I’ve ever seen in an Axis Victory TL. Either way, something similar to the National Front is likely to still form but it’ll be different. Weakened left wing elements? Stronger ones? I can see the argument for both. A pseudo-fascist party? Strongly doubt that.. it’s within the realm of plausibility but fascism wasn’t really exported in the same ways communism was and Iran’s socio-economic development didn’t really lend itself to that style of politics anyway. A National Front that might cater vaguely fascist talking points to curry favor and funding from the Axis powers? Could absolutely see that.
Would love to see what others think.
thaddeus
Donor
that is a good point, whereas Germany did not really want Arab territory, the French and Italians did.
maybe it's more plausible for a deal over the Mosul Question? with the Nazi & Vichy regimes and Turkey scheming together, with the UK at least temporarily sidelined they might not be able to resist a deal returning that area to Turkey?
Because the Allies rolled over Vichy Algeria very easily in OTL. Even in a Nazi victory, I don't see the Middle Eastern and African theatres going that differently.
They rolled over easily because Darlan ordered the governors to stand down & switch.
thaddeus
Donor
while unlikely, the UK has signed (or we have a de facto) armistice under this scenario? if the "Allies" (which at this point would not include the US) start "rolling" French colonies, there will no longer be an armistice. the UK dropping out of the war would of course take the wind out of the sails of the Free France movement also.
You are correct, the the US never became 'involved' (other than some LL) in this scenario.
And I agree, Britain cannot start 'rolling' French colonies, either under the terms of the treaty, nor, in all likelihood physically given the effort needed to keep their own colonies 'happy' - supporting Algerian independence is unlikely to be popular in Egypt/India.
Ah, I see. I had assumed a Soviet defeat in Barbarossa, AANW style.
You assumed correctly, although the conflict drags on with partisans and a rump state behind the Urals.