I think the FSA is more likely than not to remain a liberal, forward-looking democracy, but the USA, now dominated by a reactionary, aristocratic gentry and dealing with massive racial and economic disparity, is fertile ground for militant socialist movements.
Yes, that is quite true.
In the event TTL USA does fall prey to a militant socialist movement, I could see the free (as in non-slave) states, like Iowa, Minnesota and maybe California and Oregon join the FSA. Granted a situation like that is usually used in a balkanized-USA scenario, but if this militant socialist movement is scary enough (as most militant socialist movements are wont to be), then "strength in numbers" probably becomes a lot more appealing. Especially when the FSA and US free states didn't have too many disagreements in the first place. Ironically this could lead to California and Oregon having a reputation in a future FSA for being somewhat conservative.
The F.S.A. could possibly start tilting a tad towards the conservative side(at least economically), but I'm not so sure how California and Oregon would necessarily more susceptible to becoming more conservative than, say, Ohio or *northern Indiana.
Far more likely is this.
Colorado gets Baja and slavery.
Maybe, but a Colorado with Baja is going to have to be cut down a bit in order to stay (relatively) plausible: maybe up to about 35 or 36 north at the very most.
Well, I've been thinking of justifications for Iowa and Minnesota staying in the USA beyond "pretty borders." I figured that Iowa would stay because in OTL it was right next to Missouri, a fairly populous pro-USA slave state, which immediately marched some troops into Iowa to stop any trouble.
Maybe, but wouldn't the F.S.A. states of Wisconsin and *northern Ill.(whatever you've decided to name it, unless you kept the name, and changed the U.S. state's remnant instead), be liable to react in kind? Two against one wouldn't be terribly good odds for the Unionists, I would suspect.
In ATL, Minnesota actually won't be a state, I figure, I'll leave it as a territory.
That makes sense, but I'd still like to suggest the F.S.A. annexing Minnesota, instead of it remaining in the Union.
Minnesota in OTL was fairly sparsely populated and only became a state a few years before the war. Minnesota in ATL is very sparsely populated because many of the settlers that would have gone to Minnesota instead went South to make their fortunes in Mexico, a movement which the US government promoted through land grants and subsidies and such as part of a plan to "civilize" the Mexicans (but really, to exert more control over the acquired territories and thus gain more revenue).
Would so many Scandinavians, or even Germans, really want to go that far south, to have to deal with tropical heat, though?
The FSA will mostly be pro-immigration (as the Democrat Party draws significant support from immigrants), but will have to deal with socially conservative, nativist problems that coalesce as an opposition Populist Party.
Not sure that the Democrats could survive up North, as most of their power base was in the South up until about 1880 or so, IOTL; I'd suggest replacing them with the Republicans, having them become the mainstream party(with maybe an ATL Progressive Party as a liberal alternative, and another party as a conservative alternative).
The USA will gain some numbers from immigration, and will develop significant industrial centers in the southern cities, supported by raw materials from Mexico, Central America, and Africa. However, it will remain much more agrarian than it was in OTL.
It will colonize large parts of Africa and develop a new, internal slave trade between the colonies and the metropole of the American Empire.
I'm afraid that's not at all likely, not if Britain and France have any say in the matter.
In ATL, the holdings of the political losers and unfortunate people will be expropriated and given to American immigrants.
It could be, but some of the best land might be snapped up by the WASP elite, leaving the Scots-Irish, Welsh, Irish, French, Italians, etc., fighting for the rest.
The lower classes can't be enslaved, as the rest of the world would cry foul at such actions, but de facto slavery is still an option for our American friends.
What about peonage(such as maybe sharecropping with a few extras)?
In short, the USA won't industrialize to the same extent as in OTL because it's expanding horizontally instead of vertically, and spending resources, time, and manpower on integrating the new parts of the American Empire.
Probably so, I would suspect.
I've thought a lot about how the USA in ATL is going to end up because it's going to be almost night-and-day different from OTL.
Well, I can say this: sooner or later, at least a few of the OTL controversies(such as, perhaps, marijuana prohibition, how to deal with organized crime, and pretty much everything revolving around eugenics, etc.), are likely to still pop up.
It's a bit harder to think about how the FSA is going to be different. I don't think it will be involved in any significant colonization or imperialism, because it risks deleterious relationships with its European allies by doing so. Also, such actions may be politically unviable, given that they are too disturbingly similar to "what the slavers are doing."
I could possibly see them going for Hawa'ii, maybe, in the event that at least Washington and Oregon, if not California as well, also join the F.S.A., for whatever reason.
That actually makes more sense. Thanks!
I would suggest a border going up to about 33*30' North or so for Colorado(or whatever you'd like to call the new state), so that it at least has San Diego.....35 or 36 North might be kinda pushing it, TBH, but is still within the bounds of plausibility.