Mao Tse-tung Dies in 1963

[Simon]

I came across a mention on-line of Mao having apparently contracted septicaemia due to a poorly treated chest pustule that led to an abscess. Now obviously in our timeline he recovered but what if it had instead developed into a fatal case of sepsis? The timing is interesting as it's between the end of the Great Leap Forward in 1962 and the start of the Cultural Revolution in 1966.

If I'm reading things right then a triumvirate of Liu Shaoqi, Zhou Enlai, Deng Xiaopin would likely be in charge at least initially. They seem to have been a mix of Soviet-style states planners and, as shown later, pragmatists who were willing to look at alternatives. Would the more left-wing elements of the party try to take power, and how might that fare without the Cultural Revolution having happened? Internationally Khrushchev is still in power and I don't think the triumvirate would be able, due to domestic complications, to make a drastic change in the short time period before he was overthrown to improve relations. After Khrushchev's ouster however might it open the door to a reconciliation?

 

[Xenophonte]

Also in these scenarios of an earlier death of Mao I think that could have interest in what could have happened to Madame Mao? Would she be purged? Perhaps, if survive and/or isn't exiled, then she would have become in a figure around whom the 'left wing' could have rallied around her and her prestige from has been the Chairman's wife.

 

[RousseauX]

Also in these scenarios of an earlier death of Mao I think that could have interest in what could have happened to Madame Mao? Would she be purged? Perhaps, if survive and/or isn't exiled, then she would have become in a figure around whom the 'left wing' could have rallied around her and her prestige from has been the Chairman's wife.

She would have had zero political power, she didn't hold any party posts in 1963 and didn't reach political prominence until the cultural revolution after 1966

 

[James Ricker]

Without Mao's cultural revolution the radicals in the Chinese Communist Party would not have been discredited. The economic reforms of a 1970s and 80s would not have happened. China would have a larger population and be less economically developed, when communist government started to fall in the 1990s China might have fallen with them and probably would have been very messy.

 

[RousseauX]

Without Mao's Great Leap Forward the radicals the radicals in the Chinese Communist Party would not have been discredited. The economic reforms of a 1970s and 80s would not have happened. China would have a larger population and be less economically developed, when communist government started to fall in the 1990s China might have fallen with them and probably would have been very messy.

The Great Leap Forward was already completed by 63

 

[James Ricker]

The Great Leap Forward was already completed by 63

Oops corrected

 

[Born in the USSA]

Had Mao died in 1956, his achievements would have been immortal. Had he died in 1966, he would still have been a great man but flawed. But he died in 1976. Alas, what can one say?

-Chen Yun

 

[GSD310]

Without Mao's cultural revolution the radicals in the Chinese Communist Party would not have been discredited. The economic reforms of a 1970s and 80s would not have happened.

This. Without the Cultural Revolution, the definition of “pragmatist” in terms of policy making would be not engaging in wild ideological adventures instead of “reform and opening up”.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I had been intrigued by the idea of Mao dying around this time period before, but never did come across just the right PoD. Great find @Simon!

 

[Masteroftheuniverse]

No Cultural Revolution, which can only be a good thing. But I suspect that China would be more reluctant to turn against Communism, since Mao's era wouldn't have been quite so disastrous.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I should note that the question of whether China’s turn toward Market Reforms were effectively inevitable following the Great Leap Forward, and whether the Cultural Revolution delayed or enhanced this transformation, is a matter of some debate.

Frank Dikotter makes the case, iirc, that the economic catastrophe Mao inaugurated was so spectacular that it effectively broke the government’s ability to centrally run the economy creating a black market so big it effectively was the Chinese economy, and that the eventual capitalist economy that China grew after Mao was built on this underground economy. It is also my understanding that a key part of the reformist agenda following the GLF - such as Zhou Enlai’s Four Modernizations - were basically built around accepting this new economic reality, rather than wasting energy on trying to make another go at establishing a Soviet style command economy.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

I should note that the question of whether China’s turn toward Market Reforms were effectively inevitable following the Great Leap Forward, and whether the Cultural Revolution delayed or enhanced this transformation, is a matter of some debate.

Frank Dikotter makes the case, iirc, that the economic catastrophe Mao inaugurated was so spectacular that it effectively broke the government’s ability to centrally run the economy creating a black market so big it effectively was the Chinese economy, and that the eventual capitalist economy that China grew after Mao was built on this underground economy. It is also my understanding that a key part of the reformist agenda following the GLF - such as Zhou Enlai’s Four Modernizations - were basically built around accepting this new economic reality, rather than wasting energy on trying to make another go at establishing a Soviet style command economy.

Interesting point.

If so, then the later economic trajectory of China (into a gigantic de facto capitalist powerhouse) still happens, but the cultural trajectory will be substantially changed - enough to affect the entire world. That's because (AIUI) during the Cultural Revolution, Mao incited the Red Guards to get rid of everything old (the "Four Olds" Campaign), and the Guards destroyed nearly all of China's cultural heritage. They invaded museums and libraries and burned the contents; also private residences. Art, sculpture, and manuscripts were destroyed; ancient buildings such as temples were vandalized or destroyed.

One recent consequence of this is the high prices commanded by Chinese works in the collector markets. Most of what survived was stuff that had left China - sold, often for a pittance, in the early 1900s, to foreigners. One frequent occurrence on Antiques Roadshow is presentation of a Chinese object that some grand-uncle or old family friend picked up in the Far East back then, which is appraised for $20,000 or $50,000. Even 19th century copies of classic works (produced for export) fetch thousands if well-made. AR does "revisit" shows, where they show the original appraisal from say 2005, and what the value would be in 2018 or 2019. With Chinese objects, the value is often 3x-5x greater. This is because there are now lots of very rich people in China who want Chinese antiquities, and the supply is very small - due to the Cultural Revolution.