Malê Rising

Gaiaye Diagne, Senegal: Rise of a Nation (Dakar: Nouvelle Presse Africaine, 1931)

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Louis Brière de l’Isle

… When the Toucouleur war of succession broke out in 1868, Louis Brière de l’Isle had been governor of Senegal for a year. Brière de l’Isle was a career military officer like most colonial governors of the time, and unlike many of them, he didn’t adapt well to the nuances of civilian government. He was a man of great energy and dedicated to the development of the colony, improving the Dakar and St. Louis harbors and beginning construction of a railroad between the two cities. But he also did his best to govern Senegal as if it were an army camp, acting dismissively toward the elected councils and unapologetically favoring metropolitan French interests over the Wolof groundnut planters or the Creole trading houses. He also treated the coastal rulers as subjects rather than citizens; at one point, he alienated Lat Dior, the young king of Cayor, to the point of forbidding his people to enlist in the tirailleur regiments, a decree that was only rescinded upon the intercession of the colonial ministry in Paris.

Brière de l’Isle was also dedicated to expanding France’s African empire inland, which he viewed as completing the mission that Louis Faidherbe had embarked upon before his untimely death. To him, the Toucouleur civil war was a golden opportunity. Ahmadu Sekou Tall, who sought to take the throne from his cousin Tidiani, had a strong base of support in the French client kingdom of Futa Toro, and had recruited troops from there in preparation for his rebellion. Brière de l’Isle argued that France should use its alliance with Futa Toro as a basis to support Ahmadu Sekou’s claim, and that it should secure concessions - including, ironically, full cession of Futa Toro to France - in exchange for placing him on the throne.

In Paris, the Senegalese populist leader Abdoulaye Diouf, who was then an undersecretary in the colonial ministry, was against this plan. He also believed that the French flag should fly throughout West Africa, but opposed expanding the rule of France through conquest. Diouf contended that France should offer alliance and protection to inland states, grant French citizenship to their leading men, encourage the spread of French culture and the use of French as a trading language, and that eventually, the inland kings would ask, or be forced by their people, to join the French empire. In the case of the Toucouleur, Diouf argued that France should stay out of the civil war, and instead cultivate the growing urban merchant class who chafed at the reactionary scholar-peasant empire that Umar Tall had created.

Diouf’s program for French expansion was the more idealistic of the two, but Brière de l’Isle’s was, for the most part, the more practical. Diouf believed that the interior peoples would want to belong to France when the advantages of French culture were shown to them. He was speaking as a French patriot and a Wolof, and to be sure, after two centuries of French rule and increasing co-option into the French state, most Wolof in 1868 did consider themselves part of France. Two hundred years of shared history, for good or ill, will foster such feelings. But the interior peoples, with no such history, forcibly resisted being incorporated into the French empire. Everywhere that France was attempting to expand inland at the time - Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, the western Sudan, and ultimately the Congo basin - it would encounter military opposition. The Diouf and Brière de l’Isle models would be in tension throughout France’s period of colonial expansion, and Diouf’s policies would often be enacted after territories were brought into the empire, but in nearly all instances where African kingdoms were brought under French rule, it would be by conquest.

This proved to be the case along the upper Senegal. Although Brière de l’Isle was initially instructed to stay out of the succession war, he obeyed these instructions only reluctantly, and he continued to look for a pretext for the colonial garrison to become involved. He found one in December 1868, when Tidiani Tall, after suppressing the rebellion of the Bambara who had supported Ahmadu Sekou, raided into Futa Toro to cut off his cousin’s supply of recruits. Without orders from Paris, Brière de l’Isle decided that the attack on Futa Toro was an act of war against France, and marched from St. Louis with a regiment of French regulars and three regiments of tirailleurs. As he did so, he made contact with Ahmadu Sekou and offered formal support for his claim to the Toucouleur crown.

The offer was perfectly timed from Brière de l’Isle’s standpoint. Ahmadu Sekou’s back was to the wall; his troops were far outclassed by Tidiani’s professional army, his Bambara allies had been crushed, and French backing was now his only hope to prevail. He was thus willing to agree to nearly any terms Brière de l’Isle proposed, including the cession of Futa Toro as well as trade and military concessions that would make him little short of a French puppet.

That would, ironically, prove to be the undoing of the French campaign. When word got out that Ahmadu Sekou had promised Futa Toro to France, its people renounced him and rose in rebellion against him and France both. What Brière de l’Isle had envisioned as an easy march through allied territory turned into a military conquest of Futa Toro, and it took more than four months to overcome the last resistance. By that time, Tidiani Tall had learned of the French invasion and was able to shift troops from the Niger valley to confront the new threat.

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Bakel, looking toward the fort

This was not immediately apparent to Brière de l’Isle as he continued his advance up the Senegal; in fact, for a while, his progress grew easier as he scored easy victories against the irregular forces that stood in his way. In May 1869, however, he reached the fort at Bakel, a French redoubt that had been taken over by the Toucouleur during the 1850s and was now garrisoned by Tidiani’s troops. The Fulani, Tuareg and Songhai soldiers in the fort had rifles and eight artillery pieces, and were well provisioned for a siege. Brière de l’Isle could not leave the fort alone lest it become a focus for military resistance to his rear, and the fort was too strong to take by assault, so he was forced to invest it and undertake the lengthy task of creating a breach.

The fort was still holding out on June 18, when Tidiani Tall reached the upper Senegal with 25,000 troops. Even reinforced by what was left of Ahmadu Sekou’s forces, Brière de l’Isle had little more than half that, but he was not concerned; he assumed that he would quickly see off what he believed to be a disorganized native force and then return to reducing the fort. But Tidiani was no savage war chief; he had inherited a professional army from his uncle, and if he lacked Umar Tall’s reckless courage, he was a more careful planner and a better logistician. Much as the French had done to Umar Tall at Dagana thirteen years before, Tidiani was able to pin Brière de l’Isle’s troops between the river and the fort, using cavalry screens to prevent flanking maneuvers while he brought his infantry to bear against the French lines. By the evening of June 24, Brière de l’Isle had abandoned all hope of victory and sought only to escape; by concentrating his troops against the Toucouleur left, he forced an opening in Tidiani’s lines and was able to retreat to the north.

The French were not totally defeated; as they fell back on the redoubts they had built during their advance, their resistance stiffened and Tidiani’s momentum stalled. It was clear, though, that Brière de l’Isle couldn’t go back on the offensive without major reinforcements, and given France’s military commitments elsewhere and the rising tensions with the North German Confederation, such reinforcements were not forthcoming. In October 1869, Brière de l’Isle was recalled to Paris to take command of a conscript brigade at Metz, and Diouf was dispatched to Senegal to make peace with Tidiani.

By the end of the year, the Second Toucouleur War was officially ended. Tidiani agreed to recognize France’s dominion over Futa Toro, which French troops still occupied, and to return all French and allied prisoners of war; in return, France recognized the independence of the Toucouleur Empire and agreed to a joint commission to demarcate the border. Tidiani lost nothing in the peace, as Futa Toro had never been part of his kingdom; Ahmadu Sekou, for his part, had to be content with a pension and a villa in St. Louis.

The right-wing press in Paris saw the peace as an ignominious one, and it would prove fragile in the years ahead, but it was probably the best that could be achieved given France’s need to extricate itself from the situation, and it solidified French control over the middle Senegal valley. Now, France faced the task of undoing the damage that Brière de l’Isle’s term as governor had done to its relations with its African citizens, and pacifying its newly-won territory…


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Marzieh Esfandiari, The Traders: Merchant Minorities and the Making of the Twentieth Century (New York: Popular Press, 1985)

… Mention the term “merchant minority” to a random group of people, and you’re likely to get many of the same answers: Jews, Armenians, overseas Chinese and Indians, Afro-Brazilians, Syrians. Few will mention the Wolof. But although the Wolof don’t have the reputation, they do have the reality; as traders, and ultimately bankers, to the French empire and beyond, they are one of the world’s great mercantile peoples by any measure.

The story begins with the army: specifically, with the tirailleur regiments recruited from Senegal beginning in the 1850s. For at least a generation, military service was the primary means of social mobility for the Wolof. In addition to French citizenship and the privileges it brought, tirailleurs received steady (albeit modest) cash pay, bonuses upon enlistment and discharge, and the possibility of promotion to noncommissioned or even commissioned officer rank. Although commissions were generally reserved for those who were literate in French and had a working knowledge of mathematics – which initially meant, in practice, middle-class originaires from the Quatre Communes – noncommissioned officers and exceptional line troops had access to education, and upon completing the necessary coursework, were eligible for promotion to sous-lieutenant. For those who wanted more opportunity than traditional clan society or menial work in the Communes could provide, the army provided an outlet, and during the 1860s and 1870s, with only a few interruptions during times of political tension, an extraordinary percentage of Wolof men of military age took service with the tirailleurs.

As colonial soldiers, the tirailleurs served in most of the French overseas expeditions of the time, and also provided garrison troops in newly absorbed by the French empire, such as Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea and even Cochin-China. For those who mustered out at their duty station – as many did – their French citizen status, and their access to goods from inland Senegal as well as merchandise transshipped at St. Louis or Gorée, gave them an advantage setting up in business. The same occurred in certain countries, such as Brazil, that were outside the nominal French empire but were within France’s sphere of influence.

Even after the successful completion of the Third Platine War in 1869, in which the rebellious coronels of São Paulo and Minas Gerais were subdued and the Paraguayan threat alleviated through a negotiated peace, the Brazilian monarchy stood on shaky ground. Princess Regent Isabel’s “liberty of the womb” proclamation was unpopular, her centralization of administration and taxation were widely resented, and she depended on French troops to keep rebellious landowners in check and offset the Brazilian army’s uncertain loyalty. The price of French support was mineral concessions and preferential trading status: the mining consortiums and large importers were nearly all from metropolitan France, but many of the smaller importers were discharged Wolof tirailleurs. Like many merchant minorities – the Indian diaspora and the Krio being two prominent examples – their position within an overseas empire provided them with a ready-made commercial network.

At the same time, the Wolof soldiers provided remittances to their families at home, who also received French citizenship under the law of 1857. By 1870, the remittances totaled more than two million francs a year. Much of the money was spent – the Wolof became major consumers of imported goods, to the great benefit of the Creole trading houses in St. Louis – but the Wolof, as a coastal people, had been middlemen between the inland peoples and overseas traders for centuries, and a significant amount was invested in commercial goods.

Many of these new merchants were women, who were often left in charge of family finances while the men were away in the army. Just as military service was a way out for young men who chafed at life in a conservative rural society, commerce was a way out for the women. The rising commune of Dakar, in particular, became a destination for Wolof women seeking to establish themselves as merchants; it was they (and the Frenchmen and Creoles some of them would marry) who would provide the Senegalese anchor for the overseas Wolof trading networks, and it was due to their efforts that Dakar would rival and ultimately surpass St. Louis.

Religion also added energy to the growing Wolof merchant community. The dominant form of Senegalese Islam during the early nineteenth century was the Tijaniyyah Sufi brotherhood, whose vision of an “Islam for the poor” inspired many populist leaders including Abdoulaye Diouf. In 1867, however, Lamine Fall, a marabout from Tivaouane who had moved to Dakar, broke with the Tijaniyyah school and founded a new brotherhood called the Muridiyyah, or “those who desire.” Fall’s theology didn’t abandon the Tijaniyyah doctrines of social justice, but leavened them- with a healthy respect for hard work and profit, preaching that labor and business were done in service to God and emphasizing both self-help and mutual aid. The Mourides, as they were known, formed networks in both the cities and the countryside, usually united by loyalty to a particular marabout, which pooled resources for investment and provided their members with business loans, jobs, and support in the event of disability or legal trouble.

In time, there would be Mouride brotherhoods everywhere the Wolof lived, and their tight communal structure would make them a political counterweight to Diouf‘s Abacarist-inspired populism. But even in the 1870s, they had staked out a claim as Senegal’s fastest-growing sect and a driver of economic growth along the coast, and were knitting the groundnut and cotton-producing regions of the Wolof countryside with the trading houses in Dakar and abroad.

The final ingredient of the Wolof merchant network was the increasing number of Africans who lived in France itself. There had always been a small African community in Paris – Diouf’s political prominence rested in part on his status as its unofficial mayor – but as French citizenship became more widespread among the Senegalese, more and more came each year to try their luck in the capital. The Wolof living in France were eligible to enlist in the regular French army and even attend the military academy at St. Cyr (although only two of those who applied to the academy before 1870 were admitted), but the majority worked as laborers until they had saved enough to open small businesses. These, in time, would also grow into trading houses and become a hub of the Wolof mercantile empire, even as they introduced the groundnut and yassa chicken to French cuisine.

This growing diaspora would be impacted profoundly by the onset of the Franco-Prussian War…

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Mathilde Loisel, No Victor, No Vanquished: The War of 1870 (Paris: Flammarion, 1964)

… By the time the Franco-Prussian war ended, everyone involved claimed to have opposed it from the beginning. Nearly all of them, two years earlier, had been for it.

Bismarck, the canny Ministerpräsident of Prussia and Chancellor of the North German Confederation, saw conflict with France as both inevitable and necessary. In order to complete the unification of Germany, he needed to detach the Catholic states of southern Germany from their Austrian and French protectors; he had accomplished half this goal with the defeat of Austria in 1866, but the French nut had still to be cracked. France, for its part, feared a united Germany, was concerned about growing German agitation among the small Alemannic separatist movement in Alsace, and wanted to redeem its military reputation after several humbling overseas adventures. Although only one of these expeditions - the disastrous fall of the Second Mexican Empire - had been a total French defeat, it still rankled that France had had to come to terms with Tidiani Tall, and that the allied governments of Entre Rios and Brazil had forced it to accept a negotiated peace with Paraguay rather than marching into Asunción. A smashing victory against a European opponent - and one which furthered French regional political interests - was just what the doctor ordered.

The tinder, therefore, was dry. The spark would occur in Strasbourg on August 17, 1870, when a young member of the Alemannic movement fired three shots at the prefect of Bas-Rhin département, killing him and his twelve-year-old son. Bismarck disclaimed responsibility and sent his condolences to Paris, and it is likely that he never approved the assassination, but few in France at the time believed him. Right and left united in clamoring for immediate war, and on August 22, France declared war on Prussia. Although the declaration was against Prussia only, the remainder of the North German constituent states - even Hannover, which was considerably less eager for war than Prussia was - declared their belligerency within days and joined the Prussian mobilization.

The French army at this time consisted of some 600,000 regular troops - 200,000 of them short-term conscripts - and about 400,000 reserves. A number of reforms, including limited conscription and modernization of equipment and tactics, had been enacted between 1866 and 1869, but both political and fiscal factors had reduced their impact. The many foreign expeditions of the 1850s and 1860s had left France financially strapped, and it lacked the funds to modernize all its units or enforce conscription throughout the country; in addition, political opposition to conscription had forced the government to grant liberal exemptions and, in many cases, to turn a blind eye to local defections. Still, the army had a large core of battle-seasoned veterans - including more than 30,000 colonial tirailleurs - and the majority of the experienced units had been equipped with the new chassepot rifle. Against them was a North German force composed primarily of conscripts, with somewhat dated small arms but a total strength of more than 1.2 million.

On paper, the French forces considerably outclassed the Prussians. The beginning of the war was marked by French missteps, however; the French high command was inexperienced at general mobilization and had been taken aback by the speed of events, which meant that many reserve units took weeks to mobilize and that even some of the conscript brigades arrived at the front late and incompletely equipped. In contrast, the Prussians - who had conducted a general mobilization four years earlier against Austria - were able to get their reserve units to the front quickly and, through use of the railroads, had a pronounced mobility advantage over the invading forces.

Two weeks into the war, at the high-water mark of the French advance into Prussia, the North German troops at the front effectively outnumbered the French by almost two to one, and their well-organized system of military trains enabled them to shift troops rapidly in response to any French maneuver. By the end of September, the Prussian Seventh and Eighth Armies had encircled and defeated a French force at Trier, and the other invading French armies, which had reached Nohfelden in heavy fighting, had to fall back to prevent the Prussians from cutting off their rear. In October, Prussian troops began advancing into Alsace and Lorraine along a 100-mile front.

Once across the border, however, the Prussian advance slowed. The French reserves had arrived at the front, narrowing the numerical advantage, and the retreating French troops had destroyed railroad tracks wherever they could. And as the French took up defensive positions behind the border fortifications, their Gatling-style mitrailleuses, which were more advanced than Prussia’s rapid-fire weapons, began to have telling effect. On November 21, Louis-Jules Trochu repelled a Prussian attack on Seltz, and two days later, Patrice MacMahon’s First and Fifth Corps stopped another at Courcelles.

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The climactic encounter of the first stage of the war would take place at Gravelotte near Metz on December 7-9. The French forces, under the personal command of Prince Napoleon and with their right anchored by the Moselle, stood off the Prussian assaults during the first two days. On December 9, two corps under François Achille Bazaine moved to meet a dawn Prussian attack against the French left, but due to confusion, they opened the French lines, leaving a mile-long gap that was held only by one brigade of tirailleurs. At ten in the morning, a Prussian probing maneuver discovered the opening, and within the hour, the brigade was under attack by 40,000 soldiers. After sending a dispatch to inform the high command of the danger, its French colonel, Augustin Lefebvre, gave his officers and men permission to save themselves, but none of them did.

That day, 2,349 Senegalese tirailleurs died for France, holding the line against the Prussian army. When French reinforcements arrived under Bazaine at three in the afternoon, barely six hundred of the brigade were still alive, and its commander was the young Lieutenant Malamine Camara, all higher-ranking officers having been killed or incapacitated. That night, after the Prussians had retreated from the field, a visibly shaken Prince Napoleon honored them with three words: “They were Frenchmen.”

France was not yet out of danger. The French armies were still outnumbered, and the Prussians had adapted to the French defensive posture by concentrating cannon fire on weak points in the line. On December 15, a second Prussian assault on Seltz, backed with Krupp artillery, was successful, forcing Trochu’s corps back toward Soufflenheim, and the main French armies were again at peril of being outflanked. But in the meantime, Gravelotte would prove to be even more a political victory than a military one. Almost since the outbreak of the war, the French diplomats in Munich had frantically sought to convince Bavaria to enter the war on its side, and Gravelotte convinced the Bavarians that the gamble was worth making. At dawn on December 17, Bavaria declared war on Prussia, and hours later, Bavarian forces advanced from the Palatinate toward Trier, with a second Bavarian column marching on the Frankfurt railroad hub.

The Prussian armies, suddenly in danger of being cut off by the Bavarian attack on their rear, retreated from France, and by the new year, French soil was free of German troops. But now Prussia proved that it, too, could fight on the defensive. With its mobility near the front badly damaged, the Prussian army dug in to the south and east of Trier, building a line of entrenched positions supported by artillery and machine guns. What followed was the first example of modern trench warfare, a grinding positional battle often called the dress rehearsal for the Great War.

By spring, the front had scarcely moved, and it was clear that neither side would be shifted without enormous cost. In May, both France and Prussia put out peace feelers, and peace talks convened in Geneva. The negotiations lasted into the following year, with occasional desultory fighting as both parties sought to gain diplomatic advantage through battlefield victory. Finally, in January 1872, the negotiations - and the war - ended where they began, with a peace confirming the status quo ante, although France agreed to grant cultural autonomy and language rights to the Alsatians in exchange for trade concessions and minor border adjustments.

For the North German Confederation, the war would be remembered with great bitterness, not as a defeat but as a stolen victory. In France, which technically had the victory, it was regarded more as a narrow escape. The only real winners were the Senegalese, for whom the war marked a major step toward being recognized as full partners in the French empire.

And for Napoleon III, it was the end. On the very day peace was concluded at Geneva, he suffered a stroke; ten days later, he was dead, and Prince Napoleon Joseph Charles Paul Bonaparte succeeded to the throne as Napoleon IV…
 
Huzzah, a proper Franco-Prussian War!

Question though; why is Napoléon III succeeded by Plon-Plon instead of Prince Napoléon?
 
Plon-Plon is nickname that Princess Mathilde had given to his brother, the Prince Napoleon, during their infancy in Italy.

... This is Prince Napoléon Joseph Charles Paul Bonaparte, AKA 'Plon-Plon'

This is Prince Napoléon.

Now I might have forgotten it if Jonathan Edelstein butterflied the prince imperial away in a previous update (and if so could someone drop me the link?), but if not I'm asking why Napoléon III would be succeeded by his cousin instead of his son, or even a regency under Eugénie.
 
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Hmm. Napoléon III is going to have such an interesting reputation ITTL. The savior of France? Even by his enemies he's going to be seen in a rather heroic light (especially as time goes on). I think he'd likely be portrayed as a Great Man of History, who in many ways succeeded where his uncle failed, and yet one whose work was still uncompleted when he died.

Also, this is going to have some very interesting effects on France's African empire. I think France ITTL is going to be quite a bit more cosmopolitan, even more so than IOTL, and while not truly multicultural certainly multiracial. How Plon-Plon takes things from here will be interesting, but more interesting will be to see how West Africa continues to develop when the Senegal is considered just as French as Algeria was.

Speaking of which, how are butterflies affecting things in Algeria? I'd assume that the precedent set by Senegal will have changed Napoléon III's views on affairs in Algeria, so the colons would be back in force, through to a more muted extent in their dominance, and with a new class of Muslim natives that had been 'Frenchified' growing rapidly. Or am I way off here Jonathan Edelstein?
 
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Based on the second part of this update, does this mean the French Empire survives to the modernd ay, or atleast the 1980s?
 
Long live Napoleon IV!

We can hope so. He won't have Napoleon III's charisma or personal popularity (although being a successful battlefield commander will help), and imperial authority has been eroded. His heart is in the right place, but he'll have to develop moral authority, and learn to use it, in order to be a strong emperor.

Hmm. Napoléon III is going to have such an interesting reputation ITTL. The savior of France? Even by his enemies he's going to be seen in a rather heroic light (especially as time goes on). I think he'd likely be portrayed as a Great Man of History, who in many ways succeeded where his uncle failed, and yet one whose work was still uncompleted when he died.

He certainly won't be remembered as someone who led France to disaster, and people will look back on some positive aspects of his rule. Nevertheless, I think he'll still be a historically ambiguous figure - he did overthrow the republic, his attitude toward politics was fundamentally paternalistic and authoritarian (although he made pragmatic concessions to liberalism somewhat sooner than OTL) and many will view his foreign adventures as wasteful. I expect that he'll be a polarizing figure, somewhat like Margaret Thatcher or LBJ - future generations will either love him or hate him, and political parties will define themselves as for or against his legacy.

As for being a Great Man of History - well, the Bonapartists will certainly see him that way. I'm not sure, though, that his career has the grandiosity of his uncle's. Napoleon I changed Europe forever, and although the revolutionary doctrines he crammed down conquered nations' throats were suppressed after his death, they took root and sprouted again in 1848. Does Napoleon III, even with a drawn Franco-Prussian War, have anything to match that? He's avoided his uncle's spectacular overreaching and failure, but he's also avoided spectacular success.

Then again, there's Italy. That might qualify.

Also, this is going to have some very interesting effects on France's African empire. I think France ITTL is going to be quite a bit more cosmopolitan, even more so than IOTL, and while not truly multicultural certainly multiracial. How Plon-Plon takes things from here will be interesting, but more interesting will be to see how West Africa continues to develop when the Senegal is considered just as French as Algeria was.

Senegal will be both more and less French than Algeria - more, because its indigenous people will (for the most part) consider themselves French; less, because it will have relatively few metropolitan French settlers. The difference between metropolitan Frenchmen and Africans or Arabs with French citizenship will continue to matter for a while, even when it isn't supposed to. But yes, Senegal will be considered quite integrally French within a short time, which is something that will take much longer (if at all) for France's other African and Asian possessions - they won't have two centuries of shared history to affect both French and indigenous attitudes, and they also won't have the advantage of joining up early and getting the first shot at partnership. Senegal will get the best deal in the French empire; some others will do almost as well, and most will get the benefit of policies that are pioneered among the Senegalese, but not every colonial population (especially the less developed ones) will get the same respect that the Wolof will.

Multiculturalism will be a minefield - the French citizens in West Africa, Algeria and eventually Asia will be expected to speak French and assimilate substantially to French culture. France will be as much an evangelical state in this timeline as in OTL. But assimilation always works both ways, and the French culture to which the évolués assimilate (and even the French language they speak) will be a bit Wolof and a bit Algerian. And while France will definitely be a multiracial society, a great deal of private and institutional racism will continue to exist. The argument over what it means to be French will be one of the major political debates of the late 19th and early 20th centuries - it will help that the emperor is strongly on one side (at least during Plon-Plon's reign), but that won't be dispositive by any means.

Speaking of which, how are butterflies affecting things in Algeria? I'd assume that the precedent set by Senegal will have changed Napoléon III's views on affairs in Algeria, so the colons would be back in force, through to a more muted extent in their dominance, and with a new class of Muslim natives that had been 'Frenchified' growing rapidly. Or am I way off here Jonathan Edelstein?

You're essentially correct. Napoleon III still had romantic notions of himself as King of the Arabs and Protector of the Natives, and wanted to keep parts of Algeria off limits to settlement, but the Senegal precedent did change things (not to mention that colonial policy was mostly Plon-Plon's fiefdom), so Algerian policy has shifted away from feudal vassalage and more toward modernization and integration. Citizenship is somewhat easier for Algerian Muslims (and Algerian Jews) to get than it was at this point in OTL, and assimilated Muslims are in theory equal to the settlers. On the ground, though, it seldom works that way, and the évolués are often caught in the middle between the more rapacious colons (and the petty officials who support them) on the one hand, and the hard-core resistance on the other.

Algeria will appear in the story fairly soon - Abacarist doctrines are starting to filter up there via the Sufi brotherhoods. The Sufis will be part of the anti-colonial movement as in OTL, although their methods and goals will be different, and there will be intra-Sufi and Sufi-orthodox conflicts as well as conflict between the Sufis and the administration.

Based on the second part of this update, does this mean the French Empire survives to the modern day, or at least the 1980s?

For certain values of "empire" - France will have a commonwealth arrangement with many of its former possessions, and a few more DOMs/TOMs than in OTL, but no actual colonies since the early 1950s. The 1985 author is referring to the historic role of the Wolof rather than any presently-existing imperial system.
 
Great update, very interesting to see the Bavarians on the other wide of the dolchstoßlegende (especially since there's actually quite a bit of truth to it ITTL unlike IOTL). I'm guessing a bit of a nasty anti-Catholic kulturkampf in the works in North Germany?

Probably good for the Senegalese to not have many French colonists coming that way, nothing makes a colonial administration take a hard turn against the locals like colonists from the home country pushing for preferential treatment.

Good to hear that a North African update is in the works, that's probably the bit of the world I'm most interested in seeing next ITTL.

I don't know what figures you're looking at, but the official results, and those seen in most polls are thus;

Sorry for continuing the Korean thread jack, just wanted to respond to the above quote.

In some religious poll results that I've seen the Buddhist figure is much higher than that and the no affiliation figure is much lower with the two numbers swinging around a lot. While it seems that no affiliation has consistently grown over the last decade or so at the expense of Buddhism (more of a generational thing) I'm chalking up that variability to it being hard to exactly pin down line between no affiliation and Buddhist. On the one side you have the strict atheists and on the other you have devout Buddhist who visit temple regularly but you get a big mushy middle as well (nominal Buddhist, non-practicing Buddhists, cultural Buddhist, people who aren't really Buddhist but have a few supernatural beliefs that can be traced back to Buddhism). For example back in the states you had people like my uncle who was Catholic but who didn't go to mass even on Christmas or Easter or Christmas tree Jews. In Korea the line between Christian and not Christian is pretty sharp but the line between Buddhist and not Buddhist is murky as all hell. But yeah, the numbers I gave for middle ground between Buddhist and non-religious are just a guess on my part.
 
So does Germany not unify?
Not at this point, but I suspect the southern German states will see significant pro-German activity - and it will be especially radical in Bavaria. Given the proper opportunity, I suspect German unification would simply be delayed some years, and as we already know a proper opportunity is likely in the earlier Great War...
 
So does Germany not unify?

Not at this point, but I suspect the southern German states will see significant pro-German activity - and it will be especially radical in Bavaria. Given the proper opportunity, I suspect German unification would simply be delayed some years, and as we already know a proper opportunity is likely in the earlier Great War...

What Lord Insane said. For the time being, the North German Confederation will remain, and the southern states will remain independent. However, Bismarck will stay in office - the Prussian public will blame Mad King Ludwig, not him - and the NDB will regard German unification as unfinished business.

Also, there is, and will continue to be, widespread pan-German sentiment in the Catholic states. Napoleon III managed to keep the Bavarian monarchy on-side (unlike OTL) by not making any stupid remarks about reclaiming the Palatinate, but the intervention wasn't popular with the Bavarian people. The war may have secured the independence of the Wittelsbach monarchy for another twenty years, but it also damaged the monarchy's legitimacy. As I've mentioned before, southern German politics in the 1870s and 1880s will be as much a tug-of-war between ruler and ruled as between the NDB and France.

And I don't think it will be giving anything away to say that Bavaria will be one of the flashpoints of the Great War.

Great update, very interesting to see the Bavarians on the other wide of the dolchstoßlegende (especially since there's actually quite a bit of truth to it ITTL unlike IOTL). I'm guessing a bit of a nasty anti-Catholic kulturkampf in the works in North Germany?

The backlash against Catholicism in the NDB will be a very fraught issue. Bismarck won't want a Kulturkampf, because (a) he realizes that King Ludwig acted against the will of the Bavarian people; and (b) he doesn't want to alienate the southern Germans to the point where they sour on unification. It's one thing to wage a Kulturkampf in Prussia after the German Empire is safely united; it's another thing to do so while Bavaria and Baden are still independent and fear they might be next. He would prefer to enlist the Catholics of northern Germany to help drum up pan-German sentiment in the south. On the other hand, the public in the NDB (and especially Prussia) might not be ready for that much nuance, especially since, as in OTL, anti-Catholic sentiment will give the liberals a platform to secularize civil life.

I expect that there will be a wave of anti-Catholicism that Bismarck will try to moderate but will have to go along with to some extent. But it may, ironically, be less severe and have less official support than OTL due to the demands of regional politics.

Probably good for the Senegalese to not have many French colonists coming that way, nothing makes a colonial administration take a hard turn against the locals like colonists from the home country pushing for preferential treatment.

Good to hear that a North African update is in the works, that's probably the bit of the world I'm most interested in seeing next ITTL.

Senegal isn't good settler territory - it isn't the Bight of Benin, but there's still a risk of malaria and other tropical diseases, and temperate food crops don't grow well. Most of the Frenchmen in Senegal will be businessmen and administrators, with some absentee cotton planters, but not a large influx of colons. And since many of the French immigrants were republicans and other political dissidents who arrived during the late 1850s when Senegal was freer than the rest of the empire, they're (a) disproportionately urban, and (b) not in the good graces of the colonial officials. So while the cities, particularly St. Louis and Gorée, will have a mixed culture, there won't be the kind of dispossession and settler-indigenous conflict that exists in Algeria.

The first North African update is a few episodes away - it will probably cover the late 1870s, and there are some details I still need to work out.

Excellent update, as always!

Thanks!
 
For certain values of "empire" - France will have a commonwealth arrangement with many of its former possessions, and a few more DOMs/TOMs than in OTL, but no actual colonies since the early 1950s. The 1985 author is referring to the historic role of the Wolof rather than any presently-existing imperial system.

So does that mean France will end-up like OTL, not keeping very many of its former holdings, or will it keep some part of Africa?
 
What Lord Insane said. For the time being, the North German Confederation will remain, and the southern states will remain independent. However, Bismarck will stay in office - the Prussian public will blame Mad King Ludwig, not him - and the NDB will regard German unification as unfinished business.

Also, there is, and will continue to be, widespread pan-German sentiment in the Catholic states. Napoleon III managed to keep the Bavarian monarchy on-side (unlike OTL) by not making any stupid remarks about reclaiming the Palatinate, but the intervention wasn't popular with the Bavarian people. The war may have secured the independence of the Wittelsbach monarchy for another twenty years, but it also damaged the monarchy's legitimacy. As I've mentioned before, southern German politics in the 1870s and 1880s will be as much a tug-of-war between ruler and ruled as between the NDB and France.

And I don't think it will be giving anything away to say that Bavaria will be one of the flashpoints of the Great War.



The backlash against Catholicism in the NDB will be a very fraught issue. Bismarck won't want a Kulturkampf, because (a) he realizes that King Ludwig acted against the will of the Bavarian people; and (b) he doesn't want to alienate the southern Germans to the point where they sour on unification. It's one thing to wage a Kulturkampf in Prussia after the German Empire is safely united; it's another thing to do so while Bavaria and Baden are still independent and fear they might be next. He would prefer to enlist the Catholics of northern Germany to help drum up pan-German sentiment in the south. On the other hand, the public in the NDB (and especially Prussia) might not be ready for that much nuance, especially since, as in OTL, anti-Catholic sentiment will give the liberals a platform to secularize civil life.

I expect that there will be a wave of anti-Catholicism that Bismarck will try to moderate but will have to go along with to some extent. But it may, ironically, be less severe and have less official support than OTL due to the demands of regional politics.

Sometimes I have to wonder why I spend so much time reading and commenting at AH.

This probably isn't the real reason why:eek:, but certainly I learn things here. And part of that is realizing how much I don't know!

OTL, the southern German states joined with Prussia after the German alliance's victory over OTL Napoleon III.

What I don't know is, what were the winning parties in each division of Germany--that is, the ones who wanted unification (and were somewhere on the spectrum from willing to eager to accept it on Prussian terms) in both the Prussian-dominated north and the hitherto independent south--what were they thinking would happen?

I find it hard to picture any faction in southern Germany--except perhaps anti-clerical or at least secularist liberals, and I guess such radicals as Friedreich Engels and Karl Marx, neither of whom were southern Germans anyway but perhaps they had their counterparts who were--who would accept unification if they thought it meant the danger of discrimination against Catholics. The anti-clerical radicals could not have counted for much in the deliberations in any of the princely/royal governments in the south!

Vice versa what were northerners thinking if they thought the Catholicism of the southern acquisitions would be problematic? It would be different if the Prussian-ruled north had consolidated Germany by sheer naked conquest. Perhaps the southern states felt Berlin was making them an offer they couldn't refuse, and if they tried then conquest would have been the inevitable next step anyway?

After all that's a big part of how the north came under Prussian control in the first place; many of the territories Prussia incorporated did resist and were taken by overwhelming force. Others who went along more voluntarily probably were thinking about the terrible example the defeat of their neighbors set.

It isn't clear to me why there can't be a southern German patriotism apart from a Northern one, leading to two nations rather than one.

Actually one reason is clear enough; there is no southern counterpart to Prussia, no one domineering Catholic German state that can plausibly threaten to conquer their neighbors directly--and if one were to rise its potential victims could count on Prussian aid. (Except maybe Bavaria at this point, but then Bavaria would come closest to fitting the bill of the one strong south German state the others would fear!:p)

Of course there is always Austria...

But meanwhile, given none of the southern states is such a giant as Prussia was in the north, clearly none of the various levels of nobility that ran the distinct southern states would want to yield place to another.

The southern states then are weak in terms of popular mandate, and if the Wittelsbachs are in a precarious position in Bavaria, the others might want to distance themselves from Bavarian policy and thus tend to drift closer to Prussia's Northern Confederation.

But then, the northern regime OTL was hardly a monument to liberal democracy either; all the German states are out of step with their masses, the question is can they count on the solid support of enough crucial classes to prevail.

After all, the Bavarian army was on the winning side of the war! That has to count for something.

So I don't see the south formally consolidating into one unitary state, but it isn't clear to me why a close alliance bloc, to pool their resources against the North Germans and to assert their independence from French guidance--while taking advantage of French alliance as long as they can demonstrate well enough that they are by no means French puppets--can't be in the cards, with the separate kingdoms and so forth remaining legally separate.

I guess I don't understand the nature of the appeal of German nationalism in this era, so I can't really guess how realistic it could be for the separate kingdoms to stay separate but band together to defend a central Germany in alliance with France and Austria, and reject Prussian rule on Prussian terms.

If Bavaria is a flashpoint in the coming war that rather implies not all her southern German neighbor states stand with her. French diplomacy may fall short and fail to line up the other states, leaving the Wittelsbachs alone backed into the corner of French alliance to the bitter end.

I guess one thing making this more likely is the death of Louis Bonaparte and that Plon-Plon is characterized as a "liberal" which means among other things anti-clerical, or at least under suspicion of being so. He might not be inclined to maintain his predecessors foreign policy oriented around Catholic solidarity meaning ducks Napoleon III had lined up, by plan or by instinct or unintended consequence, might now scatter. Take away the religious angle and Germans are that much more likely to recoil from French alliance. Especially if Bismarck is successfully projecting the image of being a friend to all Germans and in no way sectarian.

Knowing he was, as far as I know gratuitously, sectarian OTL, I have to wonder how hard it will be for him to avoid alienating the Catholic small states. Since I don't know why he did conduct the Kulturkampf OTL!

So now I'm reading wikipedia on the subject and right away learning I had picked up some confused notions about it in the cursory coverage it got in high school--and actually I was going to a Catholic high school that year so surprise surprise!:eek::p

I didn't realize until just a few moments ago that the Kulturkampf was not an Empire-wide policy at all but a matter of policy in the Kingdom of Prussia alone. And that it was directed against the Church's power in secular spheres, prompted largely by the rise of the Catholic Center party, which was pro-Imperial, but still a strong parliamentary bloc Bismarck could not control.

Given that the Bavarian king's policy is not even popular with the majority of Bavarians and still less presumably favored by most German Catholics living outside Bavaria.

The article stresses the pragmatism of Bismarck, that he was in part responding to the fears of a segment of his own coalition, in part acting to check a rising parliamentary force simply because it was an independent political movement (and this backfired, the Catholics all across the Empire rallying and the Centre party more than doubling in size and becoming a major pillar of most Second Reich and Weimar-era governments--Bismarck needed the Centre against the rising radical Social Democrats for one thing.)

One proximate cause of the timing of the Kulturkampf in Prussia was the Vatican Council (now known as Vatican I) proclamation of the doctrine of Papal infallibility. It occurs to me the Vatican Council itself is likely to be butterflied at least in timing, agenda, and specific resolutions, and perhaps butterflied away completely.

The Wikipedia article on the First Vatican Council does not give me a lot of insight into precisely why it was convened at that particular time. In general, it presented itself as a response of the Church to the "manifold errors" of modern liberalism, and if I am reading between the lines correctly the Council chose to so strongly re-affirm and formalize as dogma the doctrine of Papal infallibility at that time because specific recent political events had undermined their confidence that Catholic doctrine would prevail due to their alliances with secular power.

It's hard for me to judge whether in this timeline they'd be more alarmed or less, or whether events in this timeline would cross the threshold of triggering a specific response of this nature at this very moment. Or how likely it was there would inevitably be some such council making much the same declarations sooner or later, versus the possibility of more piecemeal reforms and pronouncements and other maneuvers.

Anyway if the VC is merely a convenient hook to hang the general drift of 19th century Church policy on, and we presume that whether concentrated in one Council or scattered over a serious of ad hoc events, the outcome would be much the same, then presumably the general drift of the anti-Papist movements that considered the power of the Church an enemy to be defeated would also be much the same overall.

Thus the fact that the strengthening of the doctrine of Infallibility into a dogma is cited as one trigger of the Kulturkampf might be pretty irrelevant.

OTOH, even though we're told the Bavarian people aren't behind King Ludwig, certainly the foreign policy of the French Second Empire was supposed to be focused on championing the Catholic Church.

One thing I noticed in the Wiki article on the First Vatican Council was, the German bishops were largely against the proclamation of the Infallibility doctrine, not because they dissented from what they took as the "fact" of it, but because it would be quite impolitic at that time. If there is no such challenge to the secularists and liberals to defy them at this time, perhaps the north German bishops and others of the Catholic minority there can clarify they don't accept the Bonapartes as their protectors and they do support the Confederation against all its enemies.

I've lost track of what the Popes themselves have made of the French doctrines of "protection" of their Church in the timeline. If they aren't entirely happy with what the French have done in their name, they might be able to distance themselves from these unwanted defenses!
 
And now I'm thinking more about how Abacarism, related movements, and butterflies in general might look from an Ultramontane Catholic point of view. I think it's still early for them to take notice of the flock of anti-imperialist, native-spiritual movements as a perceived whole. But perhaps not, considering the explosive impact on Brazil!

Aside from Brazil, Abacarism itself is mainly impacting the Catholic sphere in French West Africa, where the French imperial government is doing the heavy lifting. But there are of course Spanish possessions in North Africa, and we might expect Abacarist-related impacts on movements in Cuba, and perhaps actual Islamic movements will be affected in the Philippines, and conceivably the nativist movements in the nominally Catholic parts of the Philippines will be affected. Or as the general insurgency there rises, alarmed Catholics might perceive links where there aren't any strong ones between Abacarism and various Christian/syncretic native spirituality movements in the north. So the Spanish sphere is a region of potential contact or perceived contact as well.

I haven't noticed, in my mostly arms-length observations of modern Catholicism, much tendency to pronounce on the relative merits of different movements within non-Catholic faiths; I don't recall any consideration of whether Lutheranism, Calvinism, the High Church of England, or so on are better or worse than each other in my religious education--all are misguided, was my impression of what I was being taught, and so there's a mix of good and bad in all of them. Still less did Catholic school try to teach me anything about the relative merits of Sunni versus Shi'a Islam, or distinguish in that judgemental sense between different Buddhist paths, or even compare Buddhism or Hinduism as such with Islam as a whole. My impression, raised in the post-Vatican II 1970s, was that we should be civil with all of them and not seduced by any of them.

I wonder though if in this context the Church will take some notice of the movements in Islam, or at least some alarm at how they impact on nominally Catholic populations as in Brazil and South America generally and perhaps Cuba and the Philippines. And if the manner of the French imperial government's relating with explicitly Abacarist French citizen/subjects in West Africa and perhaps eventually Algeria and Tunis and Morocco will become a point of contention between the state and the clergy.

Possibly there will be those churchmen who regard the radical movements as having a solvent effect on Islam in general, but on the whole I'd think the more they see things in Catholic terms, the more alarmed they will be and if anything prefer the more traditionalist versions of Islam as safer and therefore saner!

After all, from the Ultramontane point of view, Abacarism combines the errors of Islam with the errors of liberalism in one devilish mix!:eek:
 
I wonder, with Bavaria going against Prussia, does it remain in the Zollverein? Of course OTL German states that sided with Austria in 1866 didn't leave Zollverein, but...
 
Love the update, as per usual

As per my PM, I wonder if the better French performance is going to have much of an impact upon Britain's army reforms of the time. From a cursory review it appears that a lot of the reorganisation reforms were inspired by Prussia's success, although there was a fair bit more to the reforms than just that. Specifically relating to the reform's recommendation to make the self governing colonies principally responsible for their own defence

Does anyone know much about the Cardwell reforms? I would be interested in reading more
 
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