Malê Rising

Italy, a cricketing nation? Football will always be the most popular sport here - after all, it was introduced by the British and expatriate Italians in the last decades of OTL's XIX century, and it probably has already been introduced this way in ATL, too - but I can see cricket becoming as popular in ATL Italy as rugby, basketball or volleyball are in OTL Italy, if not even more.

I wonder what will be the situation in France because football codes would be seen as English but on the other hand, it may be too integrated to be rejected.

If soccer/football is already an established sport in Italy and France, it will stay that way. The French might not consider it an "English" sport any more but simply a game they play, although some distinctive French rules might develop.

Cricket and rugby would be secondary sports in Italy and the other countries where British troops fought. (Speaking of which, I forgot to mention Southeast Asia. Maybe the leading contenders for the 2013 cricket world cup will be Bosnia and Vietnam, with Germany as a strong challenger. Or maybe not.)

Another sports note I've mentioned in the past: the Brazilian capoeira martial art has been introduced to Britain by Malê students and workers, and now has a minor but established following there.

I always loved the idea of the Olympics and it's good to see they are back in this TL.

I think it makes sense that they would exist, given that there was talk of reviving them throughout the 19th century and forerunner games as early as the 1850s. It seems like something that would be suggested to help bring peace to the world after a great war, and to inaugurate a new and hopefully better century. They won't be quite the same as our Olympics but will be broadly similar.

Regarding sports butterflies it would be fun to have a stronger Australian rules football spreading in Australasia, otherwise I think the rules for Rugby would be subtly different from ours if there is no split (however there were problems between rich club in southern England and poor ones in the north that would need to be addressed).

On a few minutes' research, it seems that the split between rugby union and rugby league had to do with the southern teams' opposition to professional players and class conflict between gentleman amateurs and working-class semi-professionals. In TTL the war has probably deferred those issues for a few years, but classism and the image of the sporting gentleman still exist, so a split of some kind seems inevitable. Maybe in TTL the dominions or India will take sides.

I was reading about the life of one of my preferred poet : Arthur Rimbaud, if he had been a bit more successful in his adventures, he could have had a role in the great war. There is also Appolinaire who could write some poems about the war.

Hmmm. Rimbaud's death seems easy to butterfly, and if he went to Ethiopia in TTL, he could have been (and might still be) a French liaison and political agent. Maybe he'll stay there and incorporate East African imagery into his poems - or maybe he'd go back to France after the war, because he was an admirer of Verne. I'll have to find a way to work him in, and since he could easily live into the 1920s in TTL, there's time.

Apollinaire, unfortunately, is probably born too late, although there will be poets like him.

Update tomorrow: it will include the French civil war, the first phase of the Hungarian one, and the reconquest of Venetia, but also some grace notes.
 
A world where Cricket and Football are the twin global games, with the former being consistently contested by Australasia?

I love your utopian tendencies, Jonanthan.
 
“Maybe I’ll go for a visit. I’m not staying, though. A navy lieutenant I met in Marseilles – he’s buying a surplus transport there, along with a British officer he met in the war.” Omar raised a hand at his father’s questioning look. “It’s a long story. But they’re refitting it to trade with Hawaii and Japan, and he said that since I knew some field medicine, I could come on as assistant to the ship’s doctor. I’ll have to do regular labor too, but it’ll count as a medical apprenticeship…”

I assume that the French and British officer are those who stopped the Hawaiian coup.

I hope they (who I visualise as Louis Jourdan and Stewart Granger) have some more adventures together with Omar which are later made into 1950s technicolour matinees.

:)

Other thoughts:

You've mentioned that the TTL Jan Smuts has a different temperament to the OTL Jan Smuts.

I have to admit I don't know what OTL Jan Smuts's temperament was, could you give some more details please.

As to sport - AC Milan was in OTL founded by British emigres as a football and cricket club in 1899. Likewise I think many of the football clubs founded at about this time Argentina.

And the rugby union/legaue split might never happen, instead the professional/amateur distinction as in cricket might evolve instead.

On a wider sporting note one of the main influences IIRC on Baron de Coubertain was the notion of Waterloo being 'won on the playing fields of Eton' and the sporting ethos of British public schools being a foundation stone of the British Empire. Likewise the sporting ethos of the Ancient Greeks being a foundation stone of Greek civilisation and military prowess.

Why was this important? Because in OTL France was beaten in the Franco-Prussian war with some influential people (Zola and Dumas for example) suggesting that France's defeat was caused by moral corruption and an obsession with adultery and prostitution.

But in TTL France didn't lose the Franco-Prussian war and so didin't suffer from the same turmoil and angst as in OTL.

Perhaps ITTL it might have been the North Germans and not the French who had taken a greater interest in British sports.

How about Friedrich Nietsche, with his interest in the 'superman', being a prime mover in the creation of the modern Olympics?
 
Postwar Eurasia I: War is politics by other means

Peter Moller, The Great War: Aftermath (New York: Academy, 1961)

… The Great War didn’t end in June 1897 any more than it began in March 1893. That date only marked the end of the general conflict between the great powers. The subsidiary conflicts – some of them involving one or more great powers, others not – existed before and continued afterward. Madeleine N’Diaye, in The Fifteen Years’ War, has in fact argued that the Great War was merely the most active phase of a global conflict that began in the late 1880s and continued until 1904, in which the political and social verities of the nineteenth century were overthrown and a new order began to take their place. While N’Diaye’s dates are as arbitrary as any others – the new order continued to develop well after 1904, and was creating conflicts of its own by that time – the fact remains that the wars and political disputes of the Great War’s immediate aftermath cannot easily be separated from the war itself.

The conflicts of 1898 through 1904 were all distinct, but had several common causes. The war had shattered the people’s faith in the traditional political class, and many of the soldiers returning from the battlefield had been radicalized by their experience. The role of women in war production and the promotion of lower middle-class and even working-class soldiers to officer ranks upset nineteenth-century social hierarchies, and the newly empowered classes were in no mood to step aside now that the war was over. The imperial powers’ reliance on their dominions and colonial empires for troops and supplies created expectations on the colonies’ part that their imperial masters were loath to fulfill. The border shifts and new nations created by the peace settlement engendered their own conflicts as restive minorities, or those caught on the “wrong” side of the border, sought to rectify the situation. And economic dislocation was added to political dislocation, as wartime contracts ended and industrial workers – including returning veterans – found themselves without work as their employers retooled…

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… In few places were as many of these factors at play than in Hungary – which, not coincidentally, would experience the longest and bitterest of the postwar conflicts, with its 1904 ending date providing the bookend for N’Diaye’s Fifteen Years’ War. The regency council that took power at the end of the war – itself deeply divided as to whether Hungary should have a liberal constitution or a more authoritarian one – faced almost immediate rebellion in Croatia, Slovakia, the Burgenland and Transylvania, as well as a workers’ republic that had been declared in Budapest by returning veterans, many of them Jewish. And, incredibly, the civil strife also took on the aspect of an eighteenth-century war of succession, with two members of the council – both claiming descent from the Bethlen family – claiming the title of king with the support of loyal army officers and militias recruited from unemployed veterans.

Much of Hungary was in a state of chaos by early 1898, with the council having firm control only in an area running from approximately Szeged to Pécs. The power vacuum was compounded by ethnic groups settling scores, with or without the support of one of the contending factions. In areas where Hungarians were in the majority, ethnic Germans, Slovaks, Croats and Romanians became targets of pogroms, and where they were in the minority, the Hungarians themselves became targets. Jews were attacked nearly everywhere outside Budapest and Debrecen, although in Slovakia and the Banat, some were able to side with the rebel factions. Inside Budapest and Debrecen, the socialists – whose leadership was considerably more radical than those in France and Russia – attacked suspected class enemies. And as those inside the country took advantage of the chaos, so too did those outside; volunteers poured into the Burgenland from Germany and Austria, and the Romanian army invaded northern Transylvania and the parts of the Banat that remained to Hungary.

In the face of so many threats, the regency council had to perform radical triage. It conceded Slovakia and Croatia for the time being, resulting in triumphant proclamations of independence in Zagreb and Bratislava, and declined to confront either of the royal claimants, at least one of whom was himself fighting the Slovaks. Instead, it stood on the defensive in Burgenland and Transylvania, moved to crush the republicans in Budapest before their movement could spread to other large cities, and occupied Debrecen and Oradea where workers’ committees had taken informal control of many neighborhoods.

The council expected to take Budapest within a week, but it held out for six months, defended fanatically by veterans who fought a street-by-street battle. By the time the capital fell in late November 1898, much of the city was in ruins and more than 150,000 people – a fifth of the prewar population – were dead. Unlike the prior urban battles in Köln and Strasbourg, the majority of casualties in Budapest were civilians; both sides prevented them from evacuating, and the government troops often treated them as enemy fighters. Thousands more died in the reprisal killings enacted by the army against anyone suspected of being a leftist, along with summary executions in the other occupied cities. The horrified world drew two lessons: that the length and ferocity of the Budapest siege had turned the regency council decisively in favor of authoritarian rule, and that ideological wars are fought with far less mercy than territorial ones.

In the meantime, the council’s position on the western and Transylvania-Banat fronts had deteriorated to the point where it had lost control of much of the Burgenland and was on the verge of being cut off from the Magyar enclave in eastern Transylvania. It moved quickly to strengthen these fronts with troops drawn from Budapest, making some initial gains against the rebels and Freikorps companies in the Burgenland. But then Austria, unwilling to let the Burgenland slip out of its fingers, sent its army to join the volunteers, and once that army crossed the border, the Hungarian gains were quickly reversed. The council once again performed triage: in June 1899, it made its peace with Austria and agreed to cede the disputed territory.

The fight against Romania, however, had begun to swing in the council’s favor. The Romanian army was larger, but it lacked the experience of the Hungarian veterans, and the tactics learned so painfully during the Great War began to have an effect. By late 1899, the Romanians had been pushed out of most of the territory they occupied, and in a couple of places, the Hungarian army had crossed into Romanian territory. The war was entering its second phase as the century dawned: the western border was secure, the battle against the Romanians had settled into trench warfare and partisan activity behind Hungarian lines, and the council once again moved on Croatia, which was in the midst of its own three-cornered civil war between a pro-Habsburg faction, one which supported autonomy within Hungary, and a third that favored strict independence and neutrality…

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… The victory in Burgenland was a balm for Austria after the crushing defeat of the Great War, and the presence of many German volunteers on the Austrian side did much to reconcile the former enemies. Regiments from Dalmatia and Carniola also fought on the Burgenland front, and while their participation was minor, it reassured the Austrians that the other remaining Habsburg kingdoms were still part of their family. As a result, Austria – which had been bubbling with radicalism in the months immediately after the war, and which was facing a significant separatist movement in Vorarlberg – was in a much calmer mood when the time came to elect a constitutional assembly.

The election, which took place in August 1899, was the first to be held under universal male suffrage, and reflected Austria’s fundamentally conservative nature. The left got almost no votes outside Vienna, and the parties of the Catholic and royalist right did well. But at the same time, the far right and the extreme nationalists fared poorly, and both the National Liberals and the new Catholic liberal parties won widespread support throughout the country. The assembly would be dominated by the National Liberals and the Social Catholics, who favored progressive labor legislation and Bismarckian social insurance, and the constitution, announced at the beginning of December, was a liberal one with responsible government and guarantees of civil liberties.

Another remarkable thing about the assembly, and the parliament which would follow, was the number of Jewish representatives. There was some anti-Semitic backlash in the wake of the war, but it was outweighed by an unexpected wave of philo-Semitism. Many Austrians had taken to heart Wilhelm II’s taunt about how the Slovenes, the Dalmatians and the Jews were their only loyal minorities, and it became common for the popular press and politicians to lionize all three.

A case in point was Karl Lüger’s campaign for mayor of Vienna on the Social Catholic ticket. Before the war, Lüger had dabbled in anti-Semitic rhetoric; now, however, he campaigned alongside Jewish candidates from the allied National Liberal party and praised the Viennese Jews for their sobriety and patriotism. Several Jews, most of them army officers, even ran as independent city council candidates supporting Social Catholic policies. His rejection of his prewar anti-Semitism no doubt cost him some votes, but he won the election in a landslide, and his municipal cabinet would include Jews as well as Czechs, Slovenes and Poles. Of course, Vienna was not all of Austria, but the image of “Austrian tolerance” that so characterized the twentieth century was starting to be built…

… The turmoil in Hungary had its echoes in Fiume, which was under joint Italian, Habsburg and Hungarian administration. After Croatia declared independence, the pro-Habsburg and pro-independence factions claimed to have succeeded to Hungary’s rights in the city, and many of their back-benchers argued that Croatia should annex Fiume outright. This idea had considerable support in the countryside surrounding the city, where ethnic Croatians were the majority, and with Italy still engaged in reconquering Venetia, an increasing number felt that the time was ripe.

Matters came to a head in August 1899 when Josip Radić, an adventurer who had led a commando company during the war and who now supported the pro-independence party, marched into Fiume with an army of three hundred volunteers and briefly seized the city. By this time, however, the political equation had changed: Croatia was under renewed assault from the Hungarian regional council and didn’t want to forfeit the chance of Habsburg or Italian support. Both the provisional government in Zagreb and Radić’s own faction disavowed his coup, and within three days, a joint force from Italy and Carniola expelled him and restored the status quo. The Hungarian seats on the city administration would, however, remain vacant until the end of that country’s civil war, and the ethnic Croatians in the hinterland would continue to be restive…

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… Jules Verne’s first premiership was a time of great optimism: the war was over, it seemed that an honorable peace was in the offing, and the prime minister encouraged the nation to look to the future. Futurism as a coherent ideology was still some time in the future – Verne’s second term would be its formative period – but pieces of it can be seen in his policies of 1897-98.

He was not unique in looking ahead to a future of fiacres, aircraft and megaprojects, nor was his support of scientific and industrial research unprecedented. No prior government, however, made as great an effort to involve public institutions and citizens in long-range planning, nor had any earlier prime minister viewed the creation of the future as a participatory project. Verne transformed the École Polytechnique into a true research institute, founded the School for the Study of Peace, offered prizes for innovations in engineering and public health, and inaugurated an annual contest for “Hundred-Year Plans,” knowing that any such plan would be obsolete long before its conclusion but wanting to encourage citizens to think about France’s long-term future and how to build it. The first contest included many bizarre and incoherent entries, but it also gave the French avant-garde a chance to showcase its visions, and it would inspire a generation of authors and cinema directors to set their stories in the future.

The Verne government also subsidized cultural institutions in order to bring the arts within the reach of the working class, and directed much of the funding to works that were optimistic and experimental. The beneficiaries of this funding included Georges Méliès, an amateur inventor and stage magician who had spent the war in automotive research and who translated that knowledge into cinematic special effects. His spectaculars such as 2000 AD, The Dance of the Fiacres and Journey to the Center of the Earth were widely imitated and became staples of French cinema, and public art took on a futuristic and avant-garde cast.

Not all the Verne government’s projects were as palatable to modern tastes; like most progressives of the time, he supported eugenics and introduced bills to allow “therapeutic” abortions and sterilization of people with mental or physical defects. He was not racist in his eugenic views as many contemporaries were – if anything, he was almost Carlsenist in his belief that the ideal human would combine the strengths of all races – but laws to “improve the race” and purge it of defects would prove prone to abuse.

Other reforms of Verne’s, while more genuinely progressive, would not be realized in his first term. He offered subsidies for experimental schools that used Italian theories of self-directed learning, but only a few would open by the end of the century, and a woman suffrage bill failed narrowly in February 1898.

The Verne era ended abruptly in April of the same year. The day after the peace treaty was signed, he resigned as he had promised, and requested that the Emperor dissolve the legislature and call new elections. He did not run as a candidate or sponsor a party, although several candidates ran as independent “futurists;” instead, the election was fought primarily by the socialists, the populist right, and the clerical conservatives. The latter two factions, discredited by the war, attempted to recoup by portraying the peace settlement as a surrender, but the war-weary public wasn’t persuaded. When the polls closed on April 21, the socialist parties had won 46 percent of the seats on 39 percent of the vote, with the right-wing factions far behind. They quickly formed a coalition with independent deputies and a few small liberal and centrist parties, and for the first time in its history, France had a socialist prime minister.

The opening weeks of the new government surprised many with their moderation, but during the preceding twenty years, the socialists had become inured to parliamentary politics and compromise. They instituted a woman suffrage bill – successfully this time – and made the education system fully secular, but they didn’t restrict or expropriate the church. They expanded social insurance, and offered loans and for workers’ cooperatives to buy out their factories and create self-managed enterprises, but didn’t pursue a program of wholesale nationalization. The workings of government were marked by nothing more than continuity.

But the country descended into civil war all the same, over the question of empire. In June, the government brought forward a package of colonial reforms: Gabon would become an integral province, the Latin Right would be expanded and greater rights afforded to colonial subjects who won French citizenship, and the franchise would be granted to all Gabonais and Algerians.

It was the last of these that caused a firestorm. Many conservatives who had come to terms with Islam still found the candomble and Bwiti faiths of Gabon entirely unacceptable. An Algerian franchise was, in their eyes, even worse. The European settlers – who had been instrumental in bringing down the Leclair government and paving the socialists’ road to power – feared that they would lose political and economic control of the province. And while many Algerians had fought for France, many others had fought against it, and the public was ill inclined to reward them. The government noted that whites were the majority in many Algerian cities and would retain control of the municipal councils, and argued that recognition of the Algerians’ rights was the only way to ensure their loyalty, but its opponents were not mollified.

The reforms came to a vote amid dire threats that the country would be torn apart if it passed. The integration of Gabon and the expansion of the Latin Right passed easily, but the citizenship bills faced opposition even within the coalition; the Gabonais franchise passed by four votes, and the Algerian franchise by one. The right’s response was immediate: it walked out of parliament, declared that the government was illegitimate, and called upon the army to overthrow it.

The garrisons in much of Algeria and parts of southern France, as well as scattered units in the north, heeded this call, as did many city councils. There were also several days of confused street fighting in Paris itself, as right-wing gangs and returning Papal Legion veterans sought to seize control of the capital. But the initial push failed to bring the government down; the majority of soldiers stayed loyal, and gangs of workers and miners from the industrial north descended on Paris and overwhelmed the rightist militias. The opposition deputies, by now decamped to Avignon, declared themselves the legitimate government of France and attempted to consolidate their forces for an offensive. The French Civil War had begun.

The war was bitterly fought but relatively short; although the rebels won some victories, the government began with the upper hand and never lost it. A key turning point occurred when Napoleon V openly supported the government, declaring that he was “emperor of the socialists too” – an act that ensured that France would remain an empire even under socialist rule, and which went far toward redeeming his wartime fecklessness. The rebels responded by declaring the establishment of the “French State” – in the absence of any legitimist claimants to the throne, a kingdom was out of the question – but both domestic and international legitimacy swung decisively toward the government.

The first stage of the war was something unprecedented in modern warfare: a highly mobile affair of trains, motor wagons and fast fiacres, with company and battalion-size units staging lightning raids to capture strategic towns and roads. This was made possible by the scattered nature of both sides’ forces and the fact that they were still consolidating; much of the war in the north was decided this way before the large armies marched. In one case, government forces conducted the first aerial raid, with a squad of paratroopers jumping from a dirigible to land in a rebel-held city and assault their positions from the rear while a mobile force attacked from the front.

By the end of 1898, the action had settled into more conventional warfare. The main government army pushed south to attack the rebel trench lines and relieve Marseilles, while a corps under the command of General Joseph Joffre moved to secure the loyalist bastion of Languedoc, cut the State off from Spanish volunteers, and get around the rebel flank. In the meantime, troops from Senegal and the Kingdom of the Arabs set out to cross the Atlas Mountains and take the rebel troops in Algeria from behind. They were aided, surprisingly, by the Toucouleur, who had remained neutral through the war but now supported the government in exchange for free use of the Port of Dakar. Aguibou Tall, worried about his country’s increasing economic dependence on trade with the Malê states, had found his alternative. And both the Senegalese tirailleurs and troops from loyalist Gabon moved to take control of French Guinea and Côte d'Ivoire from their rebel governors, helped by guerrilla warfare and sabotage from the local populations.

The government regained full control of metropolitan France by July 1899, at a cost of 50,000 dead. The last rebel strongholds in Algeria held out somewhat longer, with the State’s final capital in Bône falling only in October. Most of the State’s leadership escaped into exile, with the others facing summary reprisals or arrest for treason; there was surprisingly little resistance among the general population, with war-weariness and futility by this time overcoming fear of socialist rule.

A new election was called for December, with the size of the corps législatif increased to 663 seats to account for the newly enfranchised Algerians and Gabonais. Somewhat to the socialists’ surprise, they performed worse in this election than in the previous one; women tended to be more religious and conservative than male voters, and the Algerians voted for independent mukhtars and Sufi teachers. The socialists’ share of the parliament fell to 43 percent – 287 seats, some 45 short of a majority, and the worst they would do for twenty-five years. Verne, running again as a peacemaker and this time heading a formal Futurist party, won 71 seats, and the socialists, treading lightly in the wake of the war, supported him for the premiership rather than nominating their own candidate. Verne’s second government – a coalition of socialists, futurists, liberals and Muslim independents – would be more successful than the first, and would set the stage for the “Red Twenty…”

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…. France’s troubles, like Hungary’s, had ripples beyond its borders. One of the first countries to be affected was Belgium, which was home to both a growing trade union movement and an unusually right-wing Catholic political establishment. Although Belgium had avoided invasion and had escaped largely without penalty at the Washington conference, its economy was suffering from the loss of commercial links to Britain and Germany, and the decision to allow transit rights to the French army was widely viewed as a blunder. There was a growing loss of trust in the government, and both the left and right – the latter reinforced by tens of thousands of returning Legion veterans – became increasingly radical.

The socialist victory in France’s 1898 election horrified many Belgian businessmen and clerics, who feared that the same thing might happen in their own country’s upcoming election or, alternatively, that a loss for the left might trigger an uprising. In June, a coalition of army officers, ex-Legionnaires and business leaders staged a pre-emptive coup, dissolving the parliament and suspending elections indefinitely. The new regime quickly moved to suppress opposition parties and convene a carefully selected assembly to draft a constitution.

Many existing political institutions, including the parliament and the monarchy, would survive. Representative government would become an emasculated and strictly controlled affair, however, and while the king’s formal powers were increased, he was relegated to a symbolic role in practice. The new Belgian government was a cooperative project of the military, the Legion, the industrialists and the church, and when it eventually developed an ideological foundation, it would emphasize all these things.

In the meantime, Legionnaires from Belgium volunteered in droves to fight on the side of the French State, and exiled trade unionists flocked to the emperor’s banner…

… In 1897, Spain had enjoyed thirty years of stability under a liberal constitution and a permanent coalition of moderate parties on the right and left. It had been spared the horrors of war, and had even prospered as France’s conduit for maritime trade. By 1898, though, that stability was in grave danger. The end of the war brought severe economic dislocation as France began trading through its own ports again and its military stopped placing orders in Spanish factories. And at the same time, nearly three quarters of a million Papal Legion veterans returned home, many to poverty and unemployment.

The result was an increase in radicalism, particularly in Madrid and the industrial cities of Catalonia and the Basque Country. Strikes and demonstrations by socialist and anarchist groups became common, and the returning Legionnaires found themselves on both sides: Catalan industrialists happily recruited unemployed soldiers as strikebreakers, while other Legionnaires joined the Catholic trade unions in opposition to both the industrialists and the left. Street fights between rival political gangs were an everyday occurrence, and in the October 1898 Barcelona municipal election, the coalition parties were reduced to a minority with the council divided between nationalists and radicals of the left and right.

The French civil war added fuel to the fire, especially since the Pope – who continued to act as if he were an independent head of state – strongly supported the French State while the Spanish government continued to recognize the Empire. The official Spanish policy toward the war was one of strict neutrality, but the Pope ordered priests and bishops to preach in favor of the rebellion, and the conservative Catholic parties openly recruited volunteers for the State’s forces. At the same time, many leftists volunteered to fight for the Empire, and sometimes fought pitched battles with the ex-Legionnaires before they ever left Spain.

In some ways, the civil war actually benefitted Spain: the factories were once again busy filling military orders (although in some cases, this would delay their shift to consumer production) and many unemployed troublemakers once again left the country. But the conflict in the streets, the political radicalization and the Pope’s freelance foreign policy were becoming unsustainable. Matters came to a head when the Bishop of Seu de Urgell, acting as co-prince of Andorra, led a small army recruited from his see to open the passes through the Pyrenees after the Andorran council closed them. The bishop’s forces were defeated by the Andorran militia at Santa Coloma, but the Spanish government realized that further incursions could drag Spain into the war, and it sent army units to take control of the border regions.

The occupation of Seu de Urgell and the closure of the border drew protests from the Pope and the upper Spanish clergy, many of whom were his appointees. The Pope was proving to be a very difficult guest, and parties on the left (including even some of the Catholic liberals, who resented his thumb on the scale of internal politics) increasingly demanded his expulsion. The government, realizing that this would be politically explosive, was unwilling to go so far just yet. Instead, it negotiated with the Pope, warning him that it would exercise its ancient prerogative of appointing Spanish bishops if the papacy did not make more moderate appointments, and offering incentives for him to stay out of international politics. These discussions continued through much of 1899, but they were largely unproductive, and the Spanish empire’s citizens watched anxiously as the tensions increased…

… Even Andorra would be caught in the blowback from the French conflict, and ironically, it became entangled precisely because of its efforts to stay neutral. The fight at Santa Coloma was the only real battle that would take place on Andorran soil, but there would be a number of smaller skirmishes in which the Andorran militia stopped both Legion infiltrators and anarchists from crossing over to France. But even more than that, General Joffre sent veteran sergeants to train the citizens’ militia into an army, and the militia’s increasing importance made it into a pathway for young men to be recognized as leaders.

This made itself felt during the run-up to the 1899 election. Traditionally, only heads of household could vote, and because of malapportionment, the government was dominated by a few families. But this time the young militiamen demonstrated in the streets of the capital demanding universal suffrage, and with no one capable of stopping them, the government was forced to give in. The election swept the ruling families out of power and brought in the “Sergeants’ Parliament,” a legislature dominated by small farmers and craftsmen whose base of support was the militiamen who had chosen them as leaders.

The Sergeants’ Parliament would enact several liberal reforms, but one of its most momentous acts was to declare that the Bishop of Seu de Urgell had forfeited his title as co-prince by invading Andorra, and to offer that title to the king of Spain in his stead. The Spanish crown accepted, touching off a decade of litigation in the courts of Andorra and Spain, but more importantly adding another item to the list of quarrels between the Spanish government and the Pope…

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… The Washington accords ended Italy’s war with France and Austria, but the country was not yet at peace. The Republic of Venetia, propped up by Legionnaires who refused to demobilize when the Pope dissolved their army, still controlled much of the northeast, with the anarchist communes in Friuli and Venice city also outside state authority.

The Italian government, which was still rebuilding its administration in the north and repairing the infrastructure destroyed during the war, attempted at first to negotiate with the Venetians. While the records from this time are fragmentary, it is known that parts of the Venetian government, including many of the local magnates, wanted to surrender in exchange for amnesty and recognition of their property rights. But the former Legion commanders were of a different mind, and in April 1898, they overthrew the civilian government in Verona and took power as the Council of National Salvation. The talks with Italy were immediately broken off, and by summer, the Italian army moved in force to crush the breakaway republic.

The war in Venetia had always been brutal, but the final stage set new standards. The Venetian junta treated dissent – very loosely defined – with no mercy, and the Italian troops, led by a radically anti-clerical commander, treated supporters of the republic the same way. Before the government stepped in to countermand this general, the army shot more than five thousand prisoners of war as traitors or partisans, and summarily executed many Venetian officials at the same places where they had overseen the shooting of liberals and government loyalists during the war. Inevitably, many innocent people became victims of one side or the other. By the spring of 1899, Venetia had been pacified, but much of it was scorched earth, and the reoccupation would have a lasting legacy of resentment.

Friuli and Venice city fared somewhat better: the government had no love for anarchism, but they had at least fought on the right side during the war, and both agreed not to oppose the Italian army when it moved to retake control. Also, the law confiscating collaborators’ property led to tacit recognition of the peasants’ and workers’ cooperatives they had established during the war. The postwar years would see the growth of parallel institutions – on the one hand, the police and tax authorities reasserted control, but on the other hand, education and culture were increasingly administered by the cooperatives, and many people preferred their informal dispute resolution systems to the congested courts. These institutions would come into conflict, but in the immediate postwar years, the state and the anarchists largely ignored each other.

In the meantime, the government in Rome – which had now become the permanent capital – took a hard anti-clerical turn. The battle against the Legion had been particularly bitter on Italian soil, and the center-left coalition that won the 1898 elections was determined to evict the Church from the country’s political life. The Law on Church and State, enacted in May 1899, confiscated all ecclesiastical property other than church buildings, prohibited priests from giving political sermons or wearing clerical garb outside church, forbade outdoor worship services, and banned religious schools. These measures nominally applied to all religious groups – a Jewish school in Rome was among those shut down – but since nearly all religious institutions in Italy were Catholic, the Church was the primary target.

The law was broadly popular when it was enacted, but it would cause problems of its own. The confiscated Church property was supposed to be nationalized and leased at low rents to peasants and working-class city dwellers, but only about half of it was actually distributed in this way. The rest was rented to wealthy people with political connections, often from outside the area where the property was located, who became absentee landlords. The Vatican itself became a scandal, as some of the artwork supposedly destined for the national museum found its way into private hands. The fallout from the Vatican Affair would bring down the government and lead to the historic election of 1900, the first to take place under universal male suffrage…
 
Suffice it to say, France certainly has a lot to work through. Even with the government's victory, no doubt plenty of people will still be quite ....rowdy.
 
So much for utopianism.
It's terrible, but reading about distant fictional massacres without the benefit of character vignettes is interesting but not that emotionally engaging.
The thought of the Vatican being looted and its treasures divided up by private collectors and nationalist museums? That I find deeply disgusting.
 
So much for utopianism.
It's terrible, but reading about distant fictional massacres without the benefit of character vignettes is interesting but not that emotionally engaging.
The thought of the Vatican being looted and its treasures divided up by private collectors and nationalist museums? That I find deeply disgusting.

While the being given to private individuals is bad, I don't see the issue with it being put into Museums where anyone can see it, afterall the Vatican, as far as I can tell is owned by the Italian state ITTL, so it's their prerogative to leave the art they legally own in one place or distribute it to various museums.
 
So much for utopianism.

At least for these particular places and times, although the jury's still out on a few of them.

For the record, this update was planned this way a long time ago, well before the discussion about whether TTL was utopian. When there's a global war that kills thirty-odd million people, trains more tens of millions in the ways of warfare, upends the social order all over the planet, and creates several new countries ex nihilo, then there's going to be fighting and dislocation afterward. Look at what happened in eastern Europe, Greece and Turkey between 1918-21 in OTL, and the Italian biennio rosso (which is the model for TTL's postwar Spain). There's no way in the world that TTL's Hungary, even with Slovakia and Croatia (or maybe especially with Slovakia and Croatia) is going to be peaceful after such a conflagration, nor is Italy after half the country has spent two years under occupation.

And the kicker is that I still may not have made things as bad as OTL - there's no mutual ethnic cleansing in Greece and Turkey, for instance, and the fact that Poland and Bohemia are in the German orbit is preventing them from fighting over spoils (although, before all's said and done, both will have a part in the Hungarian civil war). Maybe the charge of utopianism is still valid!

Anyway, the next update will cover the countries where the postwar shakeout was a bit smoother, for values of "smooth" that mean "short of actual civil war."

I assume that the French and British officer are those who stopped the Hawaiian coup.

I hope they (who I visualise as Louis Jourdan and Stewart Granger) have some more adventures together with Omar which are later made into 1950s technicolour matinees.

The French officer is Senegalese, so he looks nothing at all like Louis Jourdan. :p But they are indeed the two people who were across a table from each other at the end of post 2074. They didn't pull the idea of trading with Hawaii out of a hat.

But in TTL France didn't lose the Franco-Prussian war and so didin't suffer from the same turmoil and angst as in OTL.

Perhaps ITTL it might have been the North Germans and not the French who had taken a greater interest in British sports.

France didn't lose in TTL, but it also didn't really win, and certainly didn't perform as it had expected to do before the war started. So I'm guessing there would still be some interest in sports as a means of improving society. It's also been mentioned (in the post that introduced Souleymane) that some of the French left-wing societies in the 1870s had sports clubs, most likely for camraderie as well as fun.

North Germany might embrace them as a Bismarckian social welfare/public health/recreation program.

How about Friedrich Nietsche, with his interest in the 'superman', being a prime mover in the creation of the modern Olympics?

If this article is correct, then he may well have supported the idea. I'm not sure how politically influential he'd be, though, especially if he still has a mental and physical breakdown.

Suffice it to say, France certainly has a lot to work through. Even with the government's victory, no doubt plenty of people will still be quite ....rowdy.

Yup. Algeria's going to be trouble, both on the European side and the Algerian side - giving the Algerians the vote doesn't suddenly erase the last 70 years of history or make things happy and shiny. The social revolution taking place in metropolitan France will also generate conflict, and domestic politics will get contentious at times - the "Red Twenty" will be a period of broad socialist hegemony, but the socialists are far from a monolithic group.

On the other hand, France will be very progressive in some ways, and the avant-garde has the potential to be exciting.

It's terrible, but reading about distant fictional massacres without the benefit of character vignettes is interesting but not that emotionally engaging.

The academic posts are, well, academic - I don't suppose they're any more emotionally engaging than reading a book about a war or revolution in OTL would be.

The thought of the Vatican being looted and its treasures divided up by private collectors and nationalist museums? That I find deeply disgusting.

Odoacer II: Vatican Boogaloo. Nothing gold can stay thanks to the damn secular art-stealing barbarians.

You'll notice that it brought the government down. At this point most of them think it was a step too far - there's a lot of finger-pointing going on, and a lot of people saying "honest, we never thought that 'everything but church buildings and fixtures' would include the Vatican basement."

There are plenty who agree with Iori that putting the Vatican treasures in a public art museum is no crime, but the corruption and private sales are pretty universally despised. The Catholic Liberal movement in Italy will get considerably more support in the 1900 election than it might otherwise have won.
 
A
You'll notice that it brought the government down. At this point most of them think it was a step too far - there's a lot of finger-pointing going on, and a lot of people saying "honest, we never thought that 'everything but church buildings and fixtures' would include the Vatican basement."

There are plenty who agree with Iori that putting the Vatican treasures in a public art museum is no crime, but the corruption and private sales are pretty universally despised. The Catholic Liberal movement in Italy will get considerably more support in the 1900 election than it might otherwise have won.

That's good to hear. While the Papal Legion (and remnants) actions were barbaric, the fact is that private individuals taking advantage of popular sentiment to basically enrich themselves at the expense of the victims is just as loathsome.
 
The commercial price of Toucouleur support to French Loyalists during the civil war makes me rethinking to the Transsaharan and its ramifications.
First, I assume that there is at least a railway connecting Dakar to the Niger valley, a railway that would be necessary to Toucouleurs to export their goods through Dakar because of absence of realistic alternative (I don't think motor wagons are already able to compete with railway). The beginning of trade collaboration between French and Toucouleurs seems to be the occasion for a new West African economic boom, not originating from the Malê. With the Transsaharan railway, the Upper Niger Valley would be connected through the Algerian railway network to the great Algerian ports (Oran, Algiers, Bône ...) and to continental Europe more directly and quickly than by travelling almost all the Atlantic to northwestern Europe, a perspective that would be especially more plausible if the Toucouleurs join the market reached by the railway.

On more practical social and political considerations, the construction of the railway would be a useful tool for Paris to reassert his influence over the region, an influence well shaken by the war. It would provide employment to thousands of workers that I imagine hired mainly among Berbers of the Arab Kingdom. And the increase of sea trade between Algeria and France if the West African market is at the rendezvous would provide thousands of jobs for workers in ports.

Also, such a public work project, envisioned since the 1870's, looks worthy of Verne's Futurism.
 
Great post, as always. Aside from how absolutely fucked Croatia is* and how Venetia seems to be heading towards becoming Italy's Catalonia, there are some interesting things I noticed: an ideology similar to Fascism is being born in Belgium, while an alternate Futurism is starting to take shape in France; however, this futurism will influence ATL's socialism instead of fascism; France's Red Twenty seems to be an alternate Ventennio, too. :D Now that Algeria is part of France proper, and a more integrated part of France proper than it ever was in OTL, I wonder if it could stay that way until the 21th century...

*it's a pity, because a functional Croatian state would be feared by both Austria and Hungary, since they rule over (for now more or less loyal) ethnically Croatian lands. I wonder if a separate Dalmatian identity could develop, just like in OTL there is an Austrian national identity separate from the German one.
 
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That's good to hear. While the Papal Legion (and remnants) actions were barbaric, the fact is that private individuals taking advantage of popular sentiment to basically enrich themselves at the expense of the victims is just as loathsome.

Very few people in any country at any time like corruption, except those who benefit from it. Some kinds of corruption do spread the benefits around enough to be tolerated for a long time - for instance, American urban political machines - but the diversion of the Vatican treasures benefited only a few rich and well-connected people while also offending the religious sensibilities of a large part of the country.

Some members of the Italian government will go to jail over this.

First, I assume that there is at least a railway connecting Dakar to the Niger valley, a railway that would be necessary to Toucouleurs to export their goods through Dakar because of absence of realistic alternative (I don't think motor wagons are already able to compete with railway).

Yes, the Dakar-Bamako railroad has been finished in TTL (construction of the Niger Valley part was completed during the war to help move troops from Senegal to the French Sudan). An extension to Timbuktu is currently under construction, although most cargoes being shipped out from Timbuktu through Dakar make the first leg of the journey by river.

The beginning of trade collaboration between French and Toucouleurs seems to be the occasion for a new West African economic boom, not originating from the Malê. With the Transsaharan railway, the Upper Niger Valley would be connected through the Algerian railway network to the great Algerian ports (Oran, Algiers, Bône ...) and to continental Europe more directly and quickly than by travelling almost all the Atlantic to northwestern Europe, a perspective that would be especially more plausible if the Toucouleurs join the market reached by the railway.

There's even more to it than that, actually - the Toucouleur Empire is the neutral country that connects the French and British economic spheres. It trades with both the Malê and French West Africa, so it acts as a middleman for the two empires to trade with each other. The trans-Saharan railroad would increase its commercial capacity a great deal.

Of course, Aguibou Tall may have outsmarted himself somewhat - his tilt toward France makes his country less dependent on the Malê, but also makes it even more of a mercantile empire and takes it farther away from his ideal pastoral-religious commonwealth. The ulema and the industrialists will have to come to terms with each other eventually. For now, though, the railroad is in the interest of both.

Within the French empire itself, I could see that the port of Dakar might oppose the project, because it would divert trade from that city to the Algerian ports. On the other hand, the Senegalese manufacturers and growers would be all for it, because they'd be able to ship to France quickly and cheaply. And Dakar would probably still get enough traffic from, e.g., Brazil that it could be brought around.

This will be a project that begins during Verne's second term, and will be continued as a jobs/integration program during the socialist era.

Venetia seems to be heading towards becoming Italy's Catalonia

I'd had Friuli in mind as Italy's Catalonia, but I was thinking of Catalonia in terms of anarchism rather than separatism. Shows where I'm coming from, I guess. Venetia will certainly be Catalan-like in some ways - use of the Venetian language as a point of nationalist honor, for instance.

an ideology similar to Fascism is being born in Belgium, while an alternate Futurism is starting to take shape in France; however, this futurism will influence ATL's socialism instead of fascism

The Belgian regime isn't quite fascist - the closest OTL analogue would probably be the Rexism of the early 1930s.

I wouldn't say that futurism had no influence on socialism in OTL - there was a persistent futurist strain in Soviet art and education, for instance - but it will certainly have more in TTL. The ideologies of TTL that are closest to fascism will tend to be conservative and anti-modernist - think Salazar or Franco, not Mussolini - so futurism will be more an ideology of the left.

Also, given Verne's pacifism, TTL's futurism (at least in France) will be a pacifist ideology rather than one that valorizes war and violence - its sense of modern dynamism will be filtered exclusively through industry, communications, transportation and conquest of nature.

And as I've mentioned, it will also influence French Islam, and from there, Islam in French West Africa. We'll see some of this in the 1900s and 1910s.

France's Red Twenty seems to be an alternate Ventennio, too. :D

Welll... that's not quite fair. France will never become a one-party state - even the socialists will never form a single party - although the political system will be less open for a while.

Now that Algeria is part of France proper, and a more integrated part of France proper than it ever was in OTL, I wonder if it could stay that way until the 21th century...

Maybe, maybe not. As I said above, giving the Algerians the vote won't erase the past, and there will still be pressure to gerrymander the political system in favor of the whites. Also, administrators drawn from the local European population may be reluctant to enforce the laws as written, which will bring them into conflict with both the Algerian civil servants and the government in Paris. There are ways it could all end well, but also ways it could end badly.

I've said before that TTL's France will still have overseas provinces in Africa in 2013 - two of them should be fairly obvious, and there will be one to three more - but it remains to be seen if Algeria will be one.

it's a pity, because a functional Croatian state would be feared by both Austria and Hungary, since they rule over (for now more or less loyal) ethnically Croatian lands. I wonder if a separate Dalmatian identity could develop, just like in OTL there is an Austrian national identity separate from the German one.

The longer Dalmatia stays separate from Croatia, and the longer it functions as an independent kingdom, the more likely a separate identity will become. Don't count Croatia out just yet, though - they're fucked now, but that might not be the case in twenty or thirty years, and remember that post-Westphalianism will eventually be big in the Balkans.
 
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Yup. Algeria's going to be trouble, both on the European side and the Algerian side - giving the Algerians the vote doesn't suddenly erase the last 70 years of history or make things happy and shiny. .

Of course, giving the Algerians the vote is easier when they only make up, what, 10-11% the population of the Metropole? It will get more complicated as Algerian growth rates run ahead of French ones - perhaps the demographic transition fairy will swoop in to save the day, I dunno...

Bruce
 
With the British Empire having been so successful in some ways during the war, successful enough that the ruling class in England want to dial back advances in rights, might we get some wacko situation where the 'Empire' expells the UK? ;)

Or, perhaps more realistically, that all the burgeoning new Dominions retain and build on their horizontal connexions with each other, while loosiening, even severing the vertical ties with London?


If, IF, that happened, where would the white dominions end up?

Of course Australasia is a touch less 'white', and southern africa far less, and canada could end up in the US orbit rather than either 'british' one if the Empire fractures.

OT3H, the Aussies and (anglo) canadians were VERY pro British at this point...
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
Hrm. IIRC, Bratislava had either a German majority or at best a Slovak plurality in 1919. Can't remember the German name. Given that it sits on the border, would it be conceded initially, or would the Slovak capital be placed elsewhere?

Of course naturally once the friekorps sieze the Burgenland it would be isolated from Hungary, but then I suspect they'd more likely hold it and try to include it in Austria than anything else.
 

Sulemain

Banned
Love TTL, it's part of the reason I signed up. I particularly like how it completely subverts that common tropes that Islam is "unreformable". Good job :) ! .
 
Hrm. IIRC, Bratislava had either a German majority or at best a Slovak plurality in 1919. Can't remember the German name. Given that it sits on the border, would it be conceded initially, or would the Slovak capital be placed elsewhere?

Ah yes, Pressburg... It used to be a historic Hungarian capital as well (back when it was divided between the Habsburgs and the Ottomans. Quite the fascinating place.

Košice would probably be the best replacement then. It always was a rather significant city in the region, though also within reach of Hungary...

Petike would be a good candiate to go further into this ;)
 
Of course, giving the Algerians the vote is easier when they only make up, what, 10-11% the population of the Metropole? It will get more complicated as Algerian growth rates run ahead of French ones - perhaps the demographic transition fairy will swoop in to save the day, I dunno...

Urbanization and education will bring on an earlier demographic shift, as will emigration to France. Intermarriage will also blur the lines somewhat - not a great deal, but somewhat.

I expect, though, that Algeria's status will be resolved one way or another before the balance of populations becomes an issue.

With the British Empire having been so successful in some ways during the war, successful enough that the ruling class in England want to dial back advances in rights, might we get some wacko situation where the 'Empire' expells the UK? ;)

Or, perhaps more realistically, that all the burgeoning new Dominions retain and build on their horizontal connexions with each other, while loosiening, even severing the vertical ties with London?

Hmmm. There are certainly such horizontal connections developing - the Imperial War Cabinet put the idea in everyone's heads, and some will run with it after the war. Beyond that, I'm not sure. It would take a lot for the Canadians and Australasians to sever their ties with Britain given the level of sentimental attachment to the mother country. On the other hand, a bad British government might give more urgency to the dominions' gradual moves toward independence, and might see them cutting London out of some of their private deals. I'll have to think about this - it won't come to a head until the late 1910s at earliest, so there's time to figure out what will happen.

Hrm. IIRC, Bratislava had either a German majority or at best a Slovak plurality in 1919. Can't remember the German name. Given that it sits on the border, would it be conceded initially, or would the Slovak capital be placed elsewhere?

Ah yes, Pressburg... It used to be a historic Hungarian capital as well (back when it was divided between the Habsburgs and the Ottomans. Quite the fascinating place.

Košice would probably be the best replacement then. It always was a rather significant city in the region, though also within reach of Hungary...

Wikipedia, citing the 1910 census, says that Bratislava/Pressburg had a German plurality with Hungarians nearly as strong and Slovaks a very distant third. If this is so, then it wouldn't become the Slovak provisional capital - as you say, it would probably join Austria, with most of the Hungarians fleeing during the fighting.

Either Košice or Prešov might potentially be the capital - the former is the larger city, but the latter is further away from the Hungarians. Or maybe a town like Žilina which is also near the border but far from central Hungary and more industrialized. I'm seeing in a few places that Žilina was the temporary capital of the Slovak region during 1918-19. I think I'll move the capital there unless Petike has a reason why it shouldn't be.

Love TTL, it's part of the reason I signed up. I particularly like how it completely subverts that common tropes that Islam is "unreformable".

Thanks, and please keep reading and commenting!

The next update is almost finished and should be ready this evening, but I'd be obliged for one more comment so it won't fall on the end of a page.
 
Happy to provide that comment.

One of the things that I've been interested to learn about the British in India is how independent or not their local commanders war. After the 1857 Revolt, the Crown took control, as we all know - but local leaders of the EITC often still remained powerful on the ground. In other words, there was more of a shift in London and Kolkata than anywhere else. A huge part of the governance of India was up to local elites - often Indian with British aides holding massive influence.

This led to idiots like Dyer (responsible for the Amritsar massacre) feeling that they could get away with atrocities in the name of "security" because local elites would protect them, like O'Dwyer did for Dyer.

With a much earlier Great War, and thus earlier development of Indian nationalism and industry, these figures might be supplanted by a new breed of businessmen and nationalist leaders. But they will fight to hold on to their place, both against Indians rising through the ranks of power and orders from London to allow more self-governance.

Cheers,
Ganesha
 
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