Malê Rising

Is this really the kind of regime that needs a Primo to carry off, though? These seem like the kind of ideas that a committee of reactionary officers could adopt without a charismatic leader, especially if they're "rescuing the country from chaos" rather than having to persuade a functioning state to adopt their program. As you say, it's a bit muddled, but most of these kinds of ideologies are, and a committee can come up with that sort of mess even better than a single leader.

It is possible, although reactionary, there were important reformist elements within the military, especially the peninsularers and the junteros in particular. After all, even before 1898, the notion of reform was common to everyone, whatever the political stance, of course, no one was sure how to reform...

(And I would have thought that going to church and the brothel with equal conviction was part of the basic job qualifications for an aristocrat, but I digress. :p)

Certainly, but not all aristocrats would force a judge from the Supreme Tribunal to resign because he questioned the pardon of the dictator's favourite prostitute.
 


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Audrey Rees, The Rise and Fall of the Imperial Party (London: Macmillan, 1953)

… The Caribbean had always been one of the Imperial Party’s strongest bases of support outside Britain itself. The combination of a conservative Little England culture and panic over the black and mixed-race population’s increasing assertiveness gave the Imperial platform a strong appeal, and most of the planter elite embraced it willingly. Outside the special case that was Trinidad, the Caribbean was one of the few places where Imperial-aligned governors received complete, and even enthusiastic, cooperation.

This legacy would prove hard to undo after the Imperial Government fell. The incoming National Government moved quickly to replace the Imperial governors, but this changed little on the ground. In the crown colonies, the new governors drew their Executive and Legislative Council appointees from the same elites that had supported the Imperial regime, and their natural sympathies were with this elite rather than the aspirations of the lower classes.

Trinidad even experienced a temporary regression. During the Imperial period, the chamber of commerce and the local military and police commanders had successfully defied London’s policies and had included black and Indian leaders in their consultative council, but the Imperials’ fall marked a return to a conservative executive-council government, albeit with an expansion of the franchise and powers of the elected legislature. The protest movement that had grown up under Imperial rule did not accept this state of affairs, and there were riots in Port of Spain in 1922 and 1924 along with unrest in Barbados and several of the smaller islands.

But the toughest nut to crack would be Jamaica. Unlike the other Caribbean colonies, it had responsible government, and the planter class was wall-to-wall Imperial. Whatever hope the National Government might have had for a peaceful reconciliation between the new governor and the colonial legislature was dashed by the 1922 election, in which the Imperial candidates won all but two seats and after which the party chose a prime minister who was hard-line even by its standards. And while the other Caribbean islands paid lip service to reform even while dragging their feet, the Jamaican government was openly defiant.

Britain could, of course, have revoked Jamaica’s responsible government – it was not a dominion, and Westminster retained full power to legislate for it. But after the way the Imperials had damaged the unwritten constitution, the National Government was unwilling to with it further, and it was wary of the effect that such a move might have in other colonies and domains where responsible government had been achieved. And even after the Socialist-Liberal coalition came in, the growing Irish crisis sucked up the attention that would otherwise have gone to imposing a settlement in Jamaica. A unilateral declaration of independence by the Jamaican government, at a time when Britain and Ireland teetered on the edge of war, could be disastrous.

The result was that Jamaica between 1922 and 1925 was a tug-of-war between the governor and the elected cabinet. The governor vetoed attempts to tighten Imperial-era laws and routinely quashed convictions for sedition or insolence. The government and the police interpreted existing legislation harshly and winked when local planters’ militias used lynch law rather than arrest to deal with dissidents. And the flow of refugees that had begun even before the Imperial period continued unabated after it: in fact, it may even have increased, because the government no longer had British aid in apprehending workers who fled to the mountains or returning those who left by boat.

The Jamaican Imperials’ attempt to hold back the tide was, however, doomed to failure. The withdrawal of British naval patrols worked two ways, allowing guns to enter as well as refugees to leave. The Jamaican diaspora ran guns to the Maroon colonies in the mountains, which had never been fully subdued even in Imperial times, and to the underground on the sugar plantations. The planters had their own sources of arms and volunteers, mainly from the Jim Crow South, but by the mid-1920s the Jim Crow states had problems of their own and couldn’t provide enough aid to overcome the Afro-Atlantic network’s backing of the Jamaican exiles. The spring of 1925 saw large areas of the countryside outside the government’s effective control.

This meant that the Jamaican Imperials would fall with a whimper rather than a bang. By the time London had settled matters in Ulster and was able to give the Jamaican problem its full attention, the government was in dire need of rescue, and Britain was easily able to force it into peace talks as a condition of restoring order. The new constitution promulgated in January 1926 was in some ways a conservative one – the planters’ estates were protected against land reform until 1940, and the upper house would be elected by a property-weighted franchise for at least the same period – but it also introduced universal suffrage for the lower house and local councils, a bill of rights equivalent to Britain’s, and recognition of a right to collective bargaining. The planters would use their remaining control in the upper house to slow the pace of reform, and would complain over drinks in their clubs for decades to come, but their day had passed.

The Imperial era in Jamaica would have two immediate legacies. The first would be the establishment of a far-flung Jamaican diaspora: by 1925, there were significant Jamaican communities in Cuba and Hispaniola; Central America and oil-rich Venezuela; Atlantic Canada and the eastern United States; and even Liberia and Sierra Leone. The Jamaicans in exile had become a full part of the Afro-Atlantic community and would influence many of their host societies, particularly in terms of music, dance and food. The “Mento-Congo” style that swept West Africa and South Carolina in the late 1920s, combining social black comedy and double entendre with syncopated music, owes much to the Jamaican diaspora, as does the Afro-Merengue of the Dominican Republic.

The second consequence would be more ominous, and would be felt less in Kingston than in Caracas. The Venezuelan strongman Alfredo Blanco had followed British affairs closely, including both the Irish and Jamaican settlements, and concluded that Britain had lost its will and forcefulness in the wake of its defeat by India. Both his private journals and the records of Venezuelan cabinet meetings during 1925 make clear that he believed Britain would crumble before a nation that did have force and will…

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Carlos Irizarry, Blanco’s Wars (Mexico City: Nueva España, 1985)

… The series of conflicts known as the “Venezuelan Wars” began in 1922, but their root lies in the Colombian rebellion of 1920. Colombia, alone among the Andean republics, had resisted the tide of Catholic populism during the 1910s by co-opting the moderate ex-Legionnaires and instituting some social reforms while suppressing revolutionary movements. [1] But its social-welfare policies were half-hearted and weren’t nearly enough to satisfy the disenfranchised peasants, especially since there was almost no progress toward land reform. The poor harvest of 1920, which the government did little to alleviate and which forced many peasants into banditry, was the final straw, and by the end of the year, the scattered bands of displaced farmers had coalesced into a tavarista guerrilla army which called for all estates to be put in Church hands and managed in trust for the people.

The war in the countryside grew slowly during the early part of 1921, with the Tavares government in Peru offering moral support but unable to provide much material aid. But that would change dramatically in the summer. The Blanco regime, which had come into increasing conflict with the Church over its persecution of dissident priests, believed that support of a Catholic-based revolutionary movement might restore its image, and also calculated that a friendly government in Bogota might be willing to resolve long-standing border disputes in its favor. At a meeting in Caracas in August 1921, the Colombian tavarista leaders made a formal alliance with Blanco, and in return, began receiving massive arms shipments and training.

It was the capture of a Venezuelan advisor by Colombian government forces in February 1922 that would escalate the conflict to the next level. Colombia demanded that Venezuela repudiate its alliance with the tavaristas and withdraw all advisors from Colombian soil, and when Blanco refused, it tried the advisor as a spy and shot him. Both countries’ armies were already mobilizing by this time, and only days after the execution, Venezuelan riders were rolling across the border.

The invasion of Colombia was not the lightning war that Blanco had hoped for: the mountainous terrain and bad roads made rider warfare difficult, and the Colombian army was able to score some early successes by ambushing Venezuelan columns that outran their support. But these setbacks would be only temporary. The Colombian army was outnumbered and outclassed, with much of its equipment was obsolete even by Great War standards, while Venezuela had used its oil wealth to build a modern military. Venezuela’s air force – a separate command since 1919, and one upon which Blanco had lavished particular attention – was especially effective in destroying Colombian fixed defenses and breaking up troop concentrations. On July 11, 1922, Bogota fell and a tavarista government was installed, and organized resistance elsewhere in the country ended by the following month.

Thus far, Blanco’s invasion was seen as nothing more than the ordinary rough and tumble of South American warfare, and Colombia’s cession of the entire Guajira peninsula was almost minor by the standards of regional border disputes. But Blanco’s next move alarmed the neighboring countries far more. At the Colombian tavaristas’ 1923 convention, they voted unanimously to join the Venezuelan Reconstruction Party and to petition for union with Venezuela within a restored Republic of Gran Colombia. Blanco, who had obviously engineered the request, submitted it to the Venezuelan puppet legislature, which approved it in a tumultuous session. Days later, Blanco touched down in Bogota to declare before cheering crowds that Gran Colombia had been restored, and to confer the title of governor-general upon Colombia’s erstwhile president.

The union greatly improved Blanco’s standing in Venezuela, and was even greeted with guarded optimism in Colombia, which hoped to gain some of the oil wealth and was far more willing to entertain a Gran Colombian restoration than to become a Venezuelan province. But Ecuador, which had been part of the original Gran Colombian federation, now feared that it would be next, and Peru was furious over the way the tavarista revolution had been betrayed for what it saw as militarist and nationalist heresy. In May, an informal alliance was agreed between the two: both began a military buildup, and a detachment of Peruvian troops joined their Ecuadorian comrades along the northern border…

… The next of the Venezuelan Wars did not begin immediately: Blanco spent the remainder of 1923 inaugurating development projects in Colombia, including a canal across the Isthmus of Panama that would, in his words, provide an alternative to the “yanqui canal” in Nicaragua. And when it did begin, Ecuador was not the victim. Blanco did have Ecuador in his sights as an eventual target, in order to complete the reunification of Gran Colombia, but his immediate desire was for the rich resources of the Amazon. That meant separating Grão Pará from its personal union with Brazil.

If Venezuela’s rider corps had proved disappointing in Colombia, it would be of no use whatsoever in the jungles of Grão Pará, but Blanco had something else in mind. One of the early construction projects he had accomplished with his corps of labor conscripts had been a canal to bypass the Atures Rapids and thus open much of the upper Orinoco to traffic from the Atlantic. He had also carried out improvements on the remote Rio Casiquiare, a unique natural canal that connected the Orinoco to the Rio Negro and therefore to the Amazon basin. And it was through this canal that Venezuela’s riverine fleet descended upon Grão Pará on New Year’s Day, 1924.

Blanco realized that it would be impossible to occupy the entire Amazon, so he settled on a form of river-borne lightning war. Patrol boats with air support would be used to reduce Brazilian garrisons and seize strategic towns, and river-borne transports would set up garrisons at key junctions in order to control river traffic and interdict enemy movements. These garrisons would be resupplied by boat and air, and would also act as airfields from which Venezuelan planes could conduct reconnaissance and strategic bombing. The villages between the garrisons would, for the time being, be left alone, with their pacification to follow after the war was won.

The Venezuelan tactics were, at first, entirely successful. Brazil had not expected war, and although its army and riverine fleet outnumbered Venezuela’s, it had not modernized its military as much as Venezuela had. Much of its fleet was still at a Great War standard, and its aircraft were similar to those that Britain and India had fielded in the early stages of the Indian Revolution rather than the state-of-the-art planes that Venezuela had. By the end of February, tens of thousands of Venezuelan and Colombian conscripts had occupied strategic points surrounding Manaus, and that city – which had remained unconquered throughout the Great War – took only eight weeks to fall to a Venezuelan assault from the air, land and water.

But by then, things had stopped going according to plan. The people of the quilombos and villages did as they had done during the Great War, using their knowledge of the myriad rivers and portages to get around the Venezuelan strongpoints. They ambushed isolated garrisons and transports, and retreated down tributaries too small for the patrol boats to follow. And Brazil, though slow to react, had more than ten times Venezuela’s population – four times that of Venezuela and Colombia combined – and substantially greater industrial capacity than even Venezuelan oil wealth had been able to finance. The Brazilian army moved troops to Grão Pará in stages, absorbing the losses from Venezuelan air raids, and its navy laid down a class of modern river patrol craft to add to the lend-lease equipment provided by France. The end of 1924 saw Venezuelan positions not much advanced beyond what had been taken in the initial invasion, and an increasing number of troops occupied in holding down the territory that had been conquered.

The Grão Pará campaign had also brought down upon Blanco the definitive wrath of the Church. In a January 1924 encyclical, the Pope in Rio condemned the sins of nationalism and oppression, and declared that Blanco’s government was a betrayal of Christian brotherhood. This had little immediate effect in Venezuela, where Blanco had long since ensured that only compliant priests were allowed to preach, but it undermined support for the regime in Colombia, where the integration of Church institutions into the ruling party was much less advanced. And it also inflamed opinion against Blanco elsewhere in Latin America, with volunteers from Peru, Bolivia and the Southern Cone coming to fight in Grão Pará. Before long, there would even be volunteers from Europe and Africa, serving in what was a new Papal Legion in fact though not in name.

As casualty lists mounted and as word of the Pope’s displeasure filtered to the rank and file, Blanco felt the ground beginning to shift underneath his feet. His response was threefold. The grip of the party and secret police became ever tighter, to the point of being totalitarian, and even private dissent became dangerous. The government also announced a series of domestic reforms, including the institution of the cabildos de los barrios: councils that supposedly provided direct local democracy in the colonial tradition, but were in fact used to propagandize, mobilize and keep watch on people at the neighborhood level. And, stymied for the moment in the Grão Pará war, Blanco looked for another that would be more victorious…

… Venezuela’s border dispute with British Guiana dated from even before independence: the Spanish Captaincy General of Venezuela and the Republic of Gran Colombia had both claimed everything west of the Essequibo River. In 1925, the new Gran Colombia, as the inheritor of the old, decided that the time was ripe to enforce this claim. Britain, or so Blanco thought, had lost the will to oppose force with force, and would fold if presented with a fait accompli: also, the elimination of one of the last colonial presences in South America would surely shore up his damaged anti-imperial credentials.

June 1925 – the month after the Jamaican planters capitulated and agreed to peace talks – was the time chosen for the attack. On the morning of June 11, Venezuelan paratroops descended on Georgetown and Bartica, overwhelming the local garrisons, and a small patrol fleet left the Orinoco delta and proceeded down the coast toward the mouth of the Essequibo. At the same time, another airborne assault seized Port of Spain to foreclose any counterattack against the fleet by sea or air. These were the first successful large-scale paratroop operations, and by the end of the day, Blanco was proclaiming the liberation of Trinidad and British Guiana and calling on the rest of the British Caribbean to rise and join him.

The military execution of Operation Halcón was nearly perfect. The calculation behind it, however, turned out to be quite the opposite. Whatever quarrels the people of Trinidad had with British colonialism, and they were many, they had no wish to trade it for the Reconstruction Party and labor conscription. What remained of the military garrison and police retreated to the interior and the northern mountains to fight the invaders, and a large part of the population went with them. And London did not react with the resignation that Blanco had expected; instead, Prime Minister Wells declared that he “would not abandon British subjects to be slaves.”

It was clear that the crisis would be a test of the military reforms that Britain had carried out after the Indian Revolution, and it would also be a test of whether the British Empire still had any meaningful existence as a mutual-defense union. The first question was quickly answered in the affirmative: the dominions may have pointedly stayed out of the Indian war, but they agreed to contribute troops to this one, and the West Indian islands also raised several volunteer regiments. Support would in fact come from an entirely unexpected quarter, as the Republic of India, realizing that many of the people fighting the invasion of British Guiana and Trinidad were Indian, offered three brigades of marines and two cruisers from its small blue-water navy. Four years after the end of the Indian War of Independence, British and Indian troops would again fight together.

And they would win. Blanco knew that the tiny Venezuelan seagoing fleet could never win a stand-up fight against the Royal Navy, so he planned to overwhelm them with land-based aircraft as India had done. But the Venezuelan planes were met by both the British carriers’ complement of fighters and their cruiser screen’s heavy main guns and specialized anti-aircraft fire control. Two days of battle off Trinidad resulted in the destruction of Venezuela’s blue-water navy and its northeast air command. Cut off from resupply, the Venezuelan troops on the island held out less than a week after the British landing.

The battle for Guiana would be much tougher: labor conscripts had pushed a road east through the jungle at a cost of thousands of lives, and the Essequibo was flooded with troops and small gunboats. Georgetown fell quickly, but the fighting inland was hard and the terrain difficult, and it was 1926 before the invaders had been pushed back behind the prewar border. Nor was this was not the end for Wells, who by now believed that Blanco would remain a threat as long as he was allowed to stay in place, and had come to consider the war something of a moral crusade. By March, British troops were fighting in Grão Pará, where the Brazilian army was advancing up the Rio Negro, and were also preparing to land in Venezuela itself.

This last involved tense negotiations with the United States: taking back what Britain had already owned was one thing, but invading Venezuelan soil would stretch the Monroe Doctrine near to the breaking point. Fortunately (for Wells if not for Blanco), the Venezuelan government had very little support in Washington, and the administration accepted the planned landings as the continuation of a defensive war. The United States agreed not to object in exchange for Britain’s promise to withdraw from Venezuela once Blanco was removed from power – something it had intended to do anyway – and guarantees that American interests would be protected.

The final phase of the war lasted slightly less than a year. Heavily-fortified Caracas fell after a three-month siege, and the bulk of the Venezuelan army withdrew into the interior. In the meantime, the Colombians, tired of being drafted to fight and labor for a bright future that seemed farther away than ever, rose up behind the lines, and were supported by Peruvian and Ecuadorian troops who crossed the border from the south. By 1927, Colombia was lost and the coastal provinces were in enemy hands, and in February, the military overthrew what was left of the civilian government in San Fernando de Apure and sued for peace…

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Alison Gordon, The Reinvention of the Caribbean (Univ. of Kingston Press, 1998)

… The victory in Venezuela, and the Blanco regime’s replacement by a social Catholic government on the Mexican model, was a balm to British morale after the disaster in India. At the same time, it drove home the cost of carrying out even a limited industrial war for an extended period. While Wells’ remark about pawning the crown jewels and laying off the colonies is almost certainly apocryphal, it was clear that Britain could ill afford to maintain an empire in the traditional sense – and that, in Wells’ view and that of many other Socialists, such an empire was not worth maintaining in any event. As it had done with the settler colonies in the 1860s, Britain began to seek a looser relationship with what remained of the empire, passing on more of the burden of administration and defense to the colonies.

Thus was born the Dominion of the West Indies. Like the white dominions, it was a federation of colonies, but unlike them, it was created from the top down rather than forming organically. The idea of a West Indian federation had been suggested before, but it was the province of a few intellectuals: there were no mass federalist movements in the West Indies of the 1920s, nor any political parties that included federalism in their platform. The impetus behind the federation was not the wishes of the West Indians but the well-meaning ministers in London who had decided that a dozen separate colonies were too expensive to rule and defend.

The draft Government of the West Indies Act tabled in the Commons in 1929 provided that each member colony would retain its own government, but that certain matters including defense, central banking, customs, inter-island trade and relations with the empire would rest with a dominion government based in Kingston. The lower house of the dominion legislature would be elected by universal suffrage while the upper house would be appointed by the member states’ governments with the smaller colonies being disproportionately represented. There would be responsible government, but the governor-general would have considerable reserve powers.

It was not lost on the West Indians that many of the small islands still had executive-council governments, meaning that the upper house would be dominated by conservative appointees. It was also not lost on them that Jamaica and Trinidad would be expected to contribute most of the dominion’s budget while being underrepresented in the legislature. Even the grant of internal responsible government and universal suffrage in Trinidad, and an expanded franchise on Barbados, wasn’t enough to make many people happy about the arrangements.

All the same, most were willing to at least give the dominion a chance. Jamaica and Trinidad hoped to dominate the federation economically; the smaller members looked forward to being able to travel more easily and have better access to jobs and imported goods; and British Guiana, still wary of Venezuela, desperately wanted to be part of a mutual-defense pact. There was some talk on a number of islands about rejecting membership in the dominion, and federation was a contested issue in the Trinidad election of 1930, but none of the separatist movements came to power.

The new dominion was thus duly inaugurated on 1 July 1930, and the minor prince who attended the opening ceremonies hailed it as a step toward the “All-Dominion Empire” that was the goal of some members of the coalition. The general election of 1931, however, would prove that West Indian unity was no more than skin-deep, if even that…

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[1] See posts 3570 and 3584.
 
Very interesting. I got post-WWII vibes from the so-recent Indo-British cooperation, and Saddam Hussein/Iraq 1990 from Venezuela's little stunt. The West Indies are really often overlooked so it was nice to read about them; I imagine them as some sort of harmonious multiracial paradise since forever, but I forget they had a conservative white planter class well into the 20th century. While West Indies federation might seem like a cheap way out, on the contrary I think it is seldom explored for its good and relative influence it could play in the world, especially in Latin America and Africa; or ITTL vice-versa the influence Africa especially the Afro-Atlantic Creoles could play in maybe bringing the WIF into their orbit.
 

Sulemain

Banned
An awesome update if I do say so myself, and I am very happy to see "my" Royal Navy play it's part indeed.

And yes, a Dominion of the West Indies sounds like a good plan; a confederation of Dominions sounds like the best way forward. Probably exluding Ulster, if it goes theodemocratic.
 
So, I assume the new Gran Colombia is dissolved after the war, correct? It's unlikely considering the nature of how it was formed and why, but I'm curious if there'll be any will to possibly federate in some form again, considering TTL's tendency towards such federations.

And how far along did the *Panama Canal of Gran Colombia get? Can we expect further development there?
 
Very good updates, I was somewhat disappointed by how the Venezuelan wars finished but not everybody can be Alexander the great. The dominion of the West Indies will have exactly the same problems as the federation did but if it does survive (Guyana and Trinidad seem a good core even if Jamaica has less to do with the others) you could see the French possessions while still being part of France to be part in some was of the federation (like Alsace and the Zollverein).
 
I got post-WWII vibes from the so-recent Indo-British cooperation, and Saddam Hussein/Iraq 1990 from Venezuela's little stunt.

Venezuelan Hitler-esque stupidity there. Attack all your most powerful neighbors all at once, sure why not! :rolleyes:

Venezuela attacking Guyana reminded me strongly of Argentina attacking the Falklands, although with a much more extensive war following.

The Falklands War was the main model, although this would be a Falklands War where Thatcher went on to occupy Buenos Aires.

Blanco made the same miscalculation that Galtieri and Saddam (and for that matter Hitler) did: he figured that his enemy wouldn't fight. The relatively easy victory in Colombia also made him overconfident: his army really was the most modern one in the region, and he came to believe that this would overcome almost any numerical disadvantage. He had to swallow a good dose of his own propaganda in order to reach these beliefs, of course, but it's not like that never happened in OTL.

The West Indies are really often overlooked so it was nice to read about them; I imagine them as some sort of harmonious multiracial paradise since forever, but I forget they had a conservative white planter class well into the 20th century.

They were the ruling class until at least the late 1940s in most of the British Caribbean, and longer than that in Bermuda. The 30s through 50s in OTL were a time of great social unrest and labor activism in the Caribbean, and there were some troubled years early in that period. In TTL, the social changes that followed the Great War resulted in an earlier labor movement and more testing of boundaries, which blew up in the 1910s-20s and still isn't fully resolved.

While West Indies federation might seem like a cheap way out, on the contrary I think it is seldom explored for its good and relative influence it could play in the world, especially in Latin America and Africa; or ITTL vice-versa the influence Africa especially the Afro-Atlantic Creoles could play in maybe bringing the WIF into their orbit.

And yes, a Dominion of the West Indies sounds like a good plan; a confederation of Dominions sounds like the best way forward. Probably exluding Ulster, if it goes theodemocratic.

The dominion of the West Indies will have exactly the same problems as the federation did but if it does survive (Guyana and Trinidad seem a good core even if Jamaica has less to do with the others) you could see the French possessions while still being part of France to be part in some was of the federation (like Alsace and the Zollverein).

As Gwenc'hlan says, West Indian federalism didn't do too well when it was tried in OTL. The TTL federation solves a couple of the problems that its OTL counterpart had - for instance, it is a customs union and provides for free movement of people - but it's still a top-down project and the political and financial imbalance between Jamaica, Trinidad and the rest is still there. And while the closer economic union will solve some problems, it will create others, such as mass migration to the larger islands where the jobs are.

The Dominion of the West Indies will need a lot of luck to survive, and it may well break up into smaller units (Trinidad-Guyana is indeed one possibility). A closer Afro-Atlantic network or even a closer Commonwealth may actually speed up the process - after all, if the West Indies are already part of a multi-regional network, then they wouldn't lose much by breaking up their single-region federation. On the other hand, if the dominion does survive or even if it splits into a few smaller sub-federations, then the French and Dutch islands may indeed join. There's precedent in TTL for unions that cross imperial boundaries.

Quite a bit will happen in the Caribbean between the 30s and 50s, and by that time the future will be clearer.

I'm looking forward to a future post connecting this genre with dealings in illicit South American narcotics. I daresay the combination might prove... explosive.

Well, there's already been gunrunning, and multinational trade networks are pretty much guaranteed to also be multinational smuggling networks. I'm not yet sure what TTL's attitude toward drug prohibition will be, but something will always be contraband, and there will be plenty of organized crime around the Atlantic rim. And musicians travel a lot, right?

So, I assume the new Gran Colombia is dissolved after the war, correct? It's unlikely considering the nature of how it was formed and why, but I'm curious if there'll be any will to possibly federate in some form again, considering TTL's tendency towards such federations.

And how far along did the *Panama Canal of Gran Colombia get? Can we expect further development there?

You're right that this iteration of Gran Colombia fell when Blanco did - it was forced on the Colombians, and they didn't see the benefits that might have reconciled them to it. If Blanco had thought a bit smaller, he might have been able to keep the federation together and even pick up Ecuador into the bargain, but he didn't.

No doubt there will be some continued support for federalism, though: the idea has cropped up from time to time in OTL, and bigger federations are harder for the neighbors to push around.

The Panama Canal didn't get that far, but there may be investors willing to pick up where Blanco left off - a second canal that isn't under de facto American control could be seen as useful in some quarters.

Very good updates, I was somewhat disappointed by how the Venezuelan wars finished but not everybody can be Alexander the great.

And most would-be Alexanders do fall short.

The Ottoman world, including some of the peripheral countries, will be next, probably this weekend. After that, India will round out the 1920s.
 
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And how far along did the *Panama Canal of Gran Colombia get? Can we expect further development there?

Blanco did not give himself much time for that project before baiting the Lion; I doubt much more than some surveying and drawing up of plans had happened; I'd be surprised if the necessary eminent domains had been applied and people served notice they would have to move. I doubt any serious excavations could have begun even on already publicly owned land.

Given the USA's much looser control of the Nicaragua canal, the existence of a British-allied Central American Federation, that the Nicaragua canal is probably a more rational location for a canal and that OTL there hasn't been any serious project to duplicate the one that already exists, I doubt it would go forward unless some other dictator or more broadly based regime in Colombia gets another bout of grandiosity and decides to sink really massive funds and effort into it for reasons of national pride. Colombia can't afford such excess apparently, and one doubts that Blanco, had he laid aside all plans of further conquest and focused just on the Canal and other improvements, could have sustained the cost either.

To be sure this project is proposed several decades after the OTL one and advancing technology, up to and including nuclear devices, will make the project relatively cheaper as the generations pass. Perhaps the Nicaraguan canal has limits that would make a new one more appealing--but the rugged terrain of Panama suggests to me that widening the existing Nicaragua canal, building a second waterway to parallel it, or even looking north to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico might all compete strongly.

OTL Nicaragua was disfavored by US investors due to fear of the active volcanoes that are near the proposed canal route, whereas OTL Theodore Roosevelt saw the opportunity to "liberate" Panama from Colombia and thus secure the region under strong US control; the compliant new government was an asset that offset the theoretical advantages of more northerly watercourses. (Perhaps more than the volcanoes, Americans and other patrons of such enterprises, such as the French, were discouraged by the difficulty of politically controlling the canal route; here Yankee investors have more modest political expectations and the British are, or were, past masters at indirect control, so the conditions in Nicaragua were deemed acceptable enough, seismic activity to the contrary!)

Here the USA is still acting more along the lines the British proponents of the Monroe Doctrine hoped for; the USA has great potential strength, thus its displeasure with extrahemispheric would-be empire builders who interfere in American affairs has weight, but on the other hand British influence, as long as it stops short of new territorial claims or expanding old ones, still has great weight as well. The British proposed the Doctrine and know how to play by its rules, which advantage them as long as Britain is strong and their ambitions limited.

Surveying the globe I don't see many candidates for powers that would possibly seek to challenge the Monroe Doctrine, even in the face of the fact that American power is more potential than developed, especially as long as Britain is also still strong enough to uphold it as well.

I'm going to go back and read Nanwe's post on Spain very carefully though!:p

And by the way Nanwe and other guest posters, I would think Jonathan would expect the authors of such posts to stand by to answer questions about their content just as he would his own. Though any expanded canon he comes up with would trump the guest authors if they hadn't agreed with him on some as yet unpublished point.
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Speaking of author canon, as I review I see Jonathan has replied and is more optimistic than I am that a second canal might find support after all. And specifically mentions American control in Nicaragua--while the peace settlement of the US interventionist misadventure the decade before did mention some special American rights there, I got the impression it is much less than OTL US control and presence in the Canal Zone. And I might have a persistent misconception it was as much a British investment as US.

I guess I might be underestimating how much American unilateral power governed events OTL, when I point out how no second canal has happened yet--that could have been simply because Washington frowned very frostily on anyone proposing one. Here the Yanks don't have that kind of negative power.

I still think any third parties wanting an alternate canal for political rather than strictly economic reasons might be just as likely to contract with Mexico instead of Colombia. Each possible canal route has its drawbacks and advantages; Tehuantepec requires a much longer cut overland and is in a fever zone (as the lowlands of Panama are) but of the three it offers the lowest terrain to cut through. Still less than Nicaragua could Yankees expect to keep control of a canal on Mexican territory, but if the project backers don't expect to dominate the canal so exclusively as the US did OTL, Mexico ITTL is more politically stable and prosperous at this point than OTL, so is a better prospect to negotiate with as a respected sovereign power. The same may be true of Colombia of course, though its recent troubles and brief conquest don't look like great credentials to me!

Anyone but Americans trying to pull an OTL TR and carve off Panama would draw ire from El Norte, so the deal will have to be with either Bogota or Mexico City, not some pocket puppets.
 
Blanco did not give himself much time for that project before baiting the Lion; I doubt much more than some surveying and drawing up of plans had happened; I'd be surprised if the necessary eminent domains had been applied and people served notice they would have to move. I doubt any serious excavations could have begun even on already publicly owned land.

Given the USA's much looser control of the Nicaragua canal, the existence of a British-allied Central American Federation...

Wait, when did this happen? Did I miss an update?
 
Ecuador and Peru becoming allies against Blanco's regime is rather ironic, given the spats my countrymen have had with the Peruvians over our border disputes in the Amazon. Good job.
 

Deleted member 67076

Ecuador and Peru becoming allies against Blanco's regime is rather ironic, given the spats my countrymen have had with the Peruvians over our border disputes in the Amazon. Good job.
Seconding this so much.

The irony is delicious.
 
Well, there's already been gunrunning, and multinational trade networks are pretty much guaranteed to also be multinational smuggling networks. I'm not yet sure what TTL's attitude toward drug prohibition will be, but something will always be contraband, and there will be plenty of organized crime around the Atlantic rim. And musicians travel a lot, right?

Seems surprisingly plausible for what was intended as a coke-and-Mentos joke. :p
 
So, I assume the new Gran Colombia is dissolved after the war, correct? It's unlikely considering the nature of how it was formed and why, but I'm curious if there'll be any will to possibly federate in some form again, considering TTL's tendency towards such federations.

And how far along did the *Panama Canal of Gran Colombia get? Can we expect further development there?

Ecuador and Peru becoming allies against Blanco's regime is rather ironic, given the spats my countrymen have had with the Peruvians over our border disputes in the Amazon. Good job.
Ya. I foresee the possibility of a peruvian-equadoran alliance that columbia joins. So, a northern federation formed as a dierct result of venezuela's attempt- but in reaction against it.
 
Given how nasty the Indian revolution was, I'm suprised there isn't more bitterness and mistrust of the British. The imperial party is going to difficult to live down.
 
I doubt much more than some surveying and drawing up of plans had happened; I'd be surprised if the necessary eminent domains had been applied and people served notice they would have to move.

On the other hand, I suspect the eminent domain procedures in dictatorships take less time than in the US. Blanco announced plans for the canal in 1923, and he had until late 1925 before things really started to go south militarily, so he probably was able to do the surveys, clear the canal route and start digging. Most likely the excavation was abandoned sometime in 1926 with 10 or 15 percent of the job done (using the OTL construction time as a benchmark).

American control in Nicaragua--while the peace settlement of the US interventionist misadventure the decade before did mention some special American rights there, I got the impression it is much less than OTL US control and presence in the Canal Zone.

You're correct - the US doesn't have actual sovereignty as it did with the Canal Zone and isn't directly responsible for the canal's daily operations. However, its agreements with Nicaragua give it joint responsibility for the canal's defense and a good deal of pull in terms of operations and policy, especially since the US is a major stockholder of the company that owns the canal.

Enough of the revenues go to the US that there are people (not all of them Latin American nationalists) who are interested in a competing route. As you say, though, whether a second canal actually gets finished is another story, and it doesn't necessarily have to be through Colombia.

the existence of a British-allied Central American Federation

Wait, when did this happen? Did I miss an update?

It didn't happen, although Britain does retain some influence in Yucatan through its support of the autonomous region in Santa Cruz.

Ecuador and Peru becoming allies against Blanco's regime is rather ironic, given the spats my countrymen have had with the Peruvians over our border disputes in the Amazon. Good job.

Seconding this so much.

The irony is delicious.

[Dathi THorfinnsson;8861706] I foresee the possibility of a peruvian-equadoran alliance that columbia joins. So, a northern federation formed as a dierct result of venezuela's attempt- but in reaction against it.[/QUOTE]

There's nothing like a common enemy to make countries forget their differences, at least temporarily. The Andean republics could well end up in a defensive alliance against the possibility of a resurgent Venezuela, and it wouldn't be impossible for that to develop into an economic pact and then a political one. On the other hand, the disputes between Peru, Ecuador and Colombia are by no means forgotten.

Seems surprisingly plausible for what was intended as a coke-and-Mentos joke. :p

Went right past me, I'm afraid. :eek: I was thinking of the link between the Jamaican drug and arms trade and the music industry in OTL (see, e.g., Mark Myrie/Buju Banton), which I expect will happen to at least some extent in TTL - a large diaspora and a glamorized heroic age of gunrunning will do that.

Given how nasty the Indian revolution was, I'm suprised there isn't more bitterness and mistrust of the British. The imperial party is going to difficult to live down.

Oh, there was quite a bit of controversy over sending Indian troops to join the British relief force, and they made a point of not being under British command. It was only the idea of Indians in Trinidad and British Guiana being drafted into Venezuelan forced-labor battalions that persuaded India to participate - the desire to rescue members of the Indian diaspora proved stronger than distrust of Britain. Joint projects won't become a regular thing for decades, although the ice has now been broken.
 
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