Make Man In High Castle Plausible ?

[Lost Freeway]

Furthermore, we can see from the discussion of a timeline based on Hitler's intentions in Zwietes Buch that any plan to retool Germany's economy to make it plausibly assault the United States would lead to insane strategic and economic decisions.

You just had to bring that abortion up, didn't you?

 

[Tom Colton]

You just had to bring that abortion up, didn't you.

It's not like Herr Goodstone possesses Voldermort-esque sensing powers, right?

 

[Bobsalt]

And whose to say the Royal Navy would not pull a high seas fleet type maneuver and send the ship's out to sea and scuttle them rather than let the Germans have them?

More likely just sail them to Canada.

 

[Howlers]

TMITHC (book) is actually quite plausible - it just has some problems with the right dates.

According to the book the Germans win the BoB yet somehow Britain holds out - without LL - untill late 1944/early 1945 - and the Axis doesnt conquer Cairo until the summer of 1945.....

However I give Dick great credit for making a TL where at least the basics are solid - he just failed to think about the exact dates. So here an attempt:

- Roosevelt is assassinated in early 1933 - Garner becomes president

- Garner supports a balanced federal budget and opposes deficit spending. As a result he does not make any "New Deal" like investments and reduces spending for the military substantially

- When war breaks out in Europe in September 1939, the US unemployment rate is still over 20% and US infrastructure lies in ruins. The Army has less than 50 000 men - the Navy is even weaker.
Since under Garner there was no Vinson Trimmel Act, no naval act of 1936, no naval act of 1938, in late 1941 the US Navy has 1/3 its OTL strenght only 3 aircraft carriers (8 OTL) 6 Battleships (17 OTL) 12 cruisers (37 OTL) 56 Destroyers (171 OTL).

- In 1940 Bricker gets elected president. He has to deal with a country left in ruins by Garner - on top of that he is a great opponent of centralized government - thus he fails to mobilize the war economy. Production figures would have been perhaps a tenth of OTL production - meaning just some 400 tanks and 3000 aircraft in 1941, 2500 tanks and 5000 aircraft in 1942 and 3000 tanks and 8500 aircraft in 1943. With these production figures Cash and carry and LL is out of the window - this means:

- Britain does not run out of cash since it can buy almost nothing from the US - but without the aircraft received through cash and carry in 1940 (2000 pieces) it does much worse in the BoB.

- With no LL British troops in NA are far weaker and Britains food situation becomes dire by the summer of 1941.

- During the winter of 1941/42 tens of thousands of Britons starve to death - coupled with the loss of Malta - which is conquered by the Germans in the summer of 1942 - this leads to Churchill beeing kicked out of office.

- Cairo is conquered by the end of 1942 - this in combination with the ever increasing mortality rate due to the famine - leads to a British surrender by early 1943.

- By late 1943 the Soviet Union collapses. At the end of 1942 the first signs of famine started to appear, by the spring of 1943 tens of thousands were dying every month. Due to the loss of the Caucasus the Red Army was deprived of its oil - and due to the famine there was rebellion and unrest throughout the entire country. The German offensive of 1943 pushed the remaining Soviet forces across the Urals - after the Soviet surrender, Siberia and Central Asia were classified as preserves where the remaining population of the USSR could live out their lives.

- On the other side of the globe the Japanese attack against Pearl Harbour in 1941 had been a full success. 2 out of 3 aircraft carriers,2 out of 6 battleships, 1 out of 12 crusiers and 3 out of 56 destroyers were sunk.

- In the Battle of Midway half a year later - the Japanese reduced the US Navy by a further aircraft carrier,2 Battelships, 5 cruisers and 12 destroyers - additionally they conquered the island successfully.

- With the US navy neutralized - the Japanese conquered Hawaii by the end of 1942, with the British surrender in early 1943 - they swiftly annexed India and conquered Australia and New Zeeland by the end of 1943 - at the end of 1943 they even annexed parts of Siberia.

- By early 1944 the US was the only remaining threat to Axis hegemony. Germany and Japan decided to invade it. After the British surrender, Germany had taken over a large part of the Royal Navy, the Japanese on the other hand had sustained very few casualties.

- In late 1944 - during the presidential election - the US was attacked with a coordinated attack by both Germany and Japan simultaneously. The US army which had been expanded from less than 50 000 in 1939 to more than 500 000 in 1944 -fought bravely - but was eventually overwhelmed by the numerically and tactically superior invading force. After one and a half years of fighting - the US surrendered and was divided into a German and Japanese zone - with the American Midwest - renamed Rocky Mountain states - serving as a buffer between the two victorious empires.

TMITHC (book) is actually quite plausible - it just has some problems with the right dates.

According to the book the Germans win the BoB yet somehow Britain holds out - without LL - untill late 1944/early 1945 - and the Axis doesnt conquer Cairo until the summer of 1945.....

However I give Dick great credit for making a TL where at least the basics are solid - he just failed to think about the exact dates. So here an attempt:

- Roosevelt is assassinated in early 1933 - Garner becomes president

- Garner supports a balanced federal budget and opposes deficit spending. As a result he does not make any "New Deal" like investments and reduces spending for the military substantially

- When war breaks out in Europe in September 1939, the US unemployment rate is still over 20% and US infrastructure lies in ruins. The Army has less than 50 000 men - the Navy is even weaker.
Since under Garner there was no Vinson Trimmel Act, no naval act of 1936, no naval act of 1938, in late 1941 the US Navy has 1/3 its OTL strenght only 3 aircraft carriers (8 OTL) 6 Battleships (17 OTL) 12 cruisers (37 OTL) 56 Destroyers (171 OTL).

- In 1940 Bricker gets elected president. He has to deal with a country left in ruins by Garner - on top of that he is a great opponent of centralized government - thus he fails to mobilize the war economy. Production figures would have been perhaps a tenth of OTL production - meaning just some 400 tanks and 3000 aircraft in 1941, 2500 tanks and 5000 aircraft in 1942 and 3000 tanks and 8500 aircraft in 1943. With these production figures Cash and carry and LL is out of the window - this means:

- Britain does not run out of cash since it can buy almost nothing from the US - but without the aircraft received through cash and carry in 1940 (2000 pieces) it does much worse in the BoB.

- With no LL British troops in NA are far weaker and Britains food situation becomes dire by the summer of 1941.

- During the winter of 1941/42 tens of thousands of Britons starve to death - coupled with the loss of Malta - which is conquered by the Germans in the summer of 1942 - this leads to Churchill beeing kicked out of office.

- Cairo is conquered by the end of 1942 - this in combination with the ever increasing mortality rate due to the famine - leads to a British surrender by early 1943.

- By late 1943 the Soviet Union collapses. At the end of 1942 the first signs of famine started to appear, by the spring of 1943 tens of thousands were dying every month. Due to the loss of the Caucasus the Red Army was deprived of its oil - and due to the famine there was rebellion and unrest throughout the entire country. The German offensive of 1943 pushed the remaining Soviet forces across the Urals - after the Soviet surrender, Siberia and Central Asia were classified as preserves where the remaining population of the USSR could live out their lives.

- On the other side of the globe the Japanese attack against Pearl Harbour in 1941 had been a full success. 2 out of 3 aircraft carriers,2 out of 6 battleships, 1 out of 12 crusiers and 3 out of 56 destroyers were sunk.

- In the Battle of Midway half a year later - the Japanese reduced the US Navy by a further aircraft carrier,2 Battelships, 5 cruisers and 12 destroyers - additionally they conquered the island successfully.

- With the US navy neutralized - the Japanese conquered Hawaii by the end of 1942, with the British surrender in early 1943 - they swiftly annexed India and conquered Australia and New Zeeland by the end of 1943 - at the end of 1943 they even annexed parts of Siberia.

- By early 1944 the US was the only remaining threat to Axis hegemony. Germany and Japan decided to invade it. After the British surrender, Germany had taken over a large part of the Royal Navy, the Japanese on the other hand had sustained very few casualties.

- In late 1944 - during the presidential election - the US was attacked with a coordinated attack by both Germany and Japan simultaneously. The US army which had been expanded from less than 50 000 in 1939 to more than 500 000 in 1944 -fought bravely - but was eventually overwhelmed by the numerically and tactically superior invading force. After one and a half years of fighting - the US surrendered and was divided into a German and Japanese zone - with the American Midwest - renamed Rocky Mountain states - serving as a buffer between the two victorious empires.

Your opinion on the timeline is bad your timeline is and and you should feel bad

 

[butch4343]

Folks,

Am gonna ask a question here about the proposed time line mentioned above, the Germans land 200000 troops onto the US East coast, on day day there were around 1200 warships, 4000 landing ships including landing craft and 800 merchant ships and that was to transport 155000 allied troops, therefore by my poor maths the Germans would need 1600 warships , 5000 landing ships and 1200 merchant ships to land a force of 200000. Now bear in mind the allies undertook d day over 100 odd miles of sea and under an umbrella of land based air support. The Germans would be doing this over 3000 miles of rough ocean. Further more if you look at the traditional 3 to 1 ration of attacker to defender the us has 500000 men under arms, say it's an even east coast west coast split, that means 200k Germans would best 250k well dug in Americans not fighting in far off places but for there own homes , I can't see how that's workable.

Regards

Butch

 

[Athelstane]

You would probably need an isolationist like Taft elected to four terms rather than FDR.

Even that's not enough.

Taft may have been isolationist, but he wasn't a pacifist (he supported all of FDR's rearmament measures where the Navy and Air Forces were concerned, with gusto).

You basically need a civil collapse in the United States to even start talking about an Axis invasion of North America.

EDIT: Wait, 2015? How did this thread get necro'd?

 

[CalBear]

Your opinion on the timeline is bad your timeline is and and you should feel bad

Did you actually click through a warning about a 3.5 year old thread to take a one liner shot at someone who was banned in September of 2015?

Don't do that!