I must admit I would like to see a Maori Norfolk Island. I get that it may be hard to arrange (the point of it principally), but it could make things interesting later on.
Given the points raised about Maori going on land-hunting expeditions, it's entirely possible that ITTL Norfolk Island is settled or occupied
repeatedly, with some of the losers in mainland wars fleeing to Norfolk Island (and Lord Howe). If there are still locals around, and they object, well that's why you bring a few heavily-armed friends with you.
Cheapness and access, I'd imagine; the Portugese will probably have an easier time getting slaves and hiring a few camel handlers than they would hiring an entire caravan's worth of people.
Thinking this through (and some of the other points you raise), I think that it all turns on whether gems are available. Some spices could be grown in inland Queensland, but less reliably than on the east coast (lower, more erratic rainfall) and higher costs (less reliable agriculture, more difficult transportation, and greater transport costs).
If the gems are available, then the spices could be picked up as bonuses during the same expedition, and would pay for any slaves needed for other labour. Without that, the region would still be used as a stopping point in trade into the Murray-Darling basin, but would be unlikely to become a significant trade source in itself.
I'll do some more looking into whether the gems were likely to be discovered. Particularly whether they had alluvial deposts, which is the usual way to find them in the first place.
Are any of the rivers in the region navigable?
Not more than a short distance inland, basically the tidal zone. Either not enough water, or (during big wet seasons) too much. A couple of the bigger rivers (Burdekin and Fitzroy) actually flow
through the Great Dividing Range into the east, but neither is navigable far from the sea, due to a combination of rocky barriers and irregular flow.
Still, I wonder if they would eventually want to have somewhere that they can load up deeper-draft (and therefore larger) vessels for the long-distance journeys.
In the longer run, the Nuttana will eventually develop deeper draft vessels. This will take a while, though, since it means learning a completely new ship-building system.
This length of time also means that by the time the Nuttana have developed such ships, they will also have spent longer becoming integrated into the political balance in Aururia. If they play their cards right, by then they will be in a position where the competing European powers in Aururia will not let each other take over the Nuttana, because it would upset the balance of power and trade. And of course the Nuttana, through their Japanese trade links, can both acquire modern weapons and can also offer some European powers (except the Dutch) with indirect access to the Japanese market - something not to be treated lightly.
Actually, the Polynesians (unfortunately for their future prospects) do have two things that would interest the Maori: labor and land.
Both quite true, though in this context I think that this will mostly be a post-European contact development. There will be a few precedents before European contact (see below), but the proliferation of technology in iron-working and ship-building will make this a much bigger course throughout the second half of the seventeenth century.
The Maori consolidation is a big part of this, naturally. Even in OTL, with the introduction of European technology, there tended to be a billiard bill effect where defeated groups of Maori would be pushed into their neighbours' lands, and on and on. The invasion of the Moriori in the Chatham Islands was part of that process, and if memory serves, the Maori also considered invasion of Samoa as an alternative, before settling on the Chathams.
ITTL, Samoa may find itself a target too; and perhaps it will be only the start.
On a different Aotearoa-related subject, jade is another good (along with flax) that would be worth the danger of going there; in particular, jade would be lucrative enough for European merchants to risk hostile Maori, thanks to its value in China.
Jade is certainly a valuable trade good for China, once Europeans work it out. And Aotearoa is not the only source in the Third World, by the way. Nephrite jade is available in the Eyre Peninsula in Australia too (the Mutjing, ITTL), where the locals work it as an adornment. It hasn't caught on much within Aururia itself. Baffin saw the gem (hinted at in post #53) but didn't recognise it. He'd have made himself even more honoured in England if he had noticed it, but eventually someone will recognise it. Probably someone Dutch.
Well, at least until somebody stumbles across the gold.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if Portugal tries to hush up any gold discovery. It makes them too much of a target for the Dutch (and maybe others).
I suppose the question then becomes how thoroughly the Dutch integrate them, and what role the Atjuntja will play in the Dutch empire aside from subjugated natives.
In the short run, the main Dutch involvement will probably be propping up the ruling Atjuntja ethnicity against more revolts from subject peoples. It suits the VOC better to have a local monarch providing the troops and stability needed, providing that monarch is amenable to trade.
Once more diseases sweep through and the likely social breakdown, things may change.
Obviously ATL Maoridom is very different and perhaps more focused on their own domestic position and less focusing on adventuring, but I could see someone being willing to go on a frolic to the South Seas with 200 of their closest armed friends.
Having given this more thought, I agree that there will be some Maori who end up sailing overseas to other inhabited islands and inviting the locals to meet their maker with an all-expenses paid taiaha package holiday. Mostly these will be those who have lost out in the local warfare and need to go somewhere else.
In the pre-European contact era, though, I think the main targets for this sort of adventurism will be relatively local, and only barely inhabited or perhaps even uninhabited islands. The Kermadecs, the Chathams, Norfolk, Lord Howe, perhaps the Auckland Islands. This is because the Maori technological edge is still not all that great: bronze are rare, and the people who
lose battles usually don't end up keeping much of it. So going on a long-range adventure to, say, Samoa will be more of a challenge since it's a much longer voyage and there's not that much of an edge over the locals.
With the spread of technology from both Nangu and Europeans, though, all bets are off. A bigger Maori consolidation leading to more displaced peoples, and better means of sailing across the South Pacific.
The results of this will be predictably unpleasant.
Well, there is one way that the larger Polynesian states could become involved with the Aururia-Aotearoa trade network. Let's say one European power or another (probably a minor colonial power) gets booted out of Aururia but still has commercial interests in SE Asia and Oceania (Portugal seems to be likely here). Assuming the major powers in Aururia (Netherlands and England, I assume will be) hold heavy enough chokeholds on their respective slices of the continent, the remaining option for buying kunduri, spices, cider, opals, etc would be through the Maori
I think that Spain has a better chances than Portugal at this; she is the main one that accesses SE Asia and Near Oceania largely from the Pacific side, making a Tonga or Samoa midpoint a possibly sensible choice (even helpful on the Philippines' way maybe). Thay made a stab at Melanesia (Vanuatu IIRC) in the late sixteenth century IOTL after all. I gather that it was less than half-hearted, was an obvious failure and had no follow-up, but they tried.
Interesting thoughts. Projecting power across the Pacific wasn't that easy even for Spain, if I remember right, but trade is a lot easier than that. Depending on how the various trade contacts and proxy wars play out in Aururia and Aotearoa, then there really could be quite a complex of European powers with direct and indirect involvement in the Third World.
A look at the currents could clarify if it could be a worthy attempt. It surely would make things interesting, with the Dutch busy in Western Aururia, the British mostly in the Southern coast, the Portuguese probably in the North and the Spanish coming form the East.
And will there be room for Danes and French i suppose.
The Dutch do have some involvement in the southern coast too (the Eyre Peninsula), and influence of sorts in the Murray basin, though how long that lasts is anyone's guess.
It's also no secret that the English/British will have big involvement in the Yadji Empire, at least for a while. There's Tasmania too, with its endless warefare between Tjunini and Kurnawal, and where most likely the Dutch will end up backing one nation and the English the other.
That leaves the short-term prizes as:
- Aotearoa, for whoever can negotiate or force their way in
- the east coast of Australia, which has two big prizes Daluming (Coffs Harbour) and the Patjimunra (Hunter Valley), and plenty of smaller polities where European powers may get involved
In the longer term, the Nuttana will be expanding into northern Queensland, but other colonial powers may also get involved, and there's potential for European powers to settle the northern coast (though that's really very welcoming).
Well when people have nothing to sell, they can always sell people. It is clear the economics of it are weak, but the incentives for the Polynesians are tremendous.
Moreover, isn't Polynesia in need of getting rid of some surplus population?
(well, this would give the South Pacific history ITTL a pretty dark shade ).
I see. Yes, that would work. A slave trade to *Australia.
Hmm.
Giving this more thought, I think a low-level, intermittent slave trade to Aotearoa may well have sprung up before European contact. This will probably be exclusively with Aotearoa, rathern than Aururia because slavery is a much bigger thing there, in sailing terms it's closer, the navigational knowledge to reach Aotearoa already exists, and there are already cultural links.
The prices the Maori would charge would be high (i.e. lots of slaves), but certain trade goods could be worthwhile, from the viewpoint of a given Polynesian chief. A couple of spices are cultivatable in New Zealand, particularly the sweet peppers, and those would be big hits. Greenstone itself may be attractive. Bronze tools and weapons would be highly valued, though persuading the Maori to part with them would take a
lot of slaves.
]Camels could be acquired with some porters from Diu, a port in Gujarat that the Portuguese controlled.
Diu also worked as the port that the Portuguese used to introduce horses from the Persian Gulf in to India, they wore brought in special ships called "Taforeia".
So the Portuguese can introduce camels, and pure blood horses to Aururia, and if necessary zebus.
The Portuguese also have access to horses, or more accurately ponies, from Timor, Flores and probably from Sumba.
By this time they could also establish some weapons factories either in Larantuka or Dili, with masters gunsmiths from Macau.
Interesting possibilities, thanks.
In terms of timing, the main consideration for Portugal is that up until 1642, the Dutch ITTL have been actively targeting any Portuguese colonial outposts all over the world, conquering those they can, and harassing the rest.
After 1642, with the VOC now in undeclared war with its English rival, the Portuguese will have a better chance of recovering their position, since they will be seen as a lesser threat by both sides. This is probably the timeframe when there would be more involvement in Aururia.
As a side note, I also need to work out what happens with the Dutch occupation of north-eastern Brazil. For reasons that have been discussed previously, the Dutch were always in a precarious position there, but having more wealth to play with may change things, even if it only means the Dutch hanging around for longer. And even a delayed reconquest of Brazil may have major consequences for Portugal - wasn't Brazil a major source of wealth?
Also after a few decades someone will start to create Sugar plantations.
Yes, very much so. The parts of Aururia where this can be done most reliably are all on the east coast, from about Coffs Harbour northwards. The soils on the northern coast of Aururia (around the Gulf of Carpentaria, Arnhem Land etc) are mostly too poor and iron-rich, and the rainfall too erratic, to be as suitable for sugar plantations.
But the Nuttana at least, and quite possibly others, will be setting up sugar plantations in various places. And as for getting the labour, well, they have various options, few of them nice.
The slave trade, and in particular the way it ended, iOTL gave South Pacific history a pretty dark shade. Why not a darker shade of grey?
Yes, I am aware of blackbirding and other assorted nastiness. This TL has the potential to make things much worse though, I am afraid.
Things could indeed get much worse. Larger-scale slavery, Maori wars of conquest across much of the South Pacific, lots of pirates, privateers and raids between many competing powers... Come to think of it, the ATL modern version of
Pirates of the Carribeanof the South Pacific history may well be set in the Coral Sea.