Land of Flatwater: Protect and Survive Middle America

[ObssesedNuker]

The Soviet counter-(counter) blow is coming very up soon. NATO's in for an ugly surprise when the Soviet's second-echelon armies, although apparently somewhat delayed by airstrikes, come roaring in...

Then everything goes nuclear.

 

[Mario Rossi]

Thanks for that. I'll make sure that gets to Radio Nebraska so they get that right

So If I understand this right, there could be some inter-alliance friction in regards to Romania?

Interesting.

Hey Mario, two questions.

1. Who actually is running Italy in the timeline? Have they figured it out.
2. Gianni Agnelli -- does he survive this?

Remember that there's nothing wrong with having someone in your story saying something that could be or could not be true; during wartime it is a common occurrence. People mix reality with hopes, fears, speculations, rumors and so on sometimes with malice, sometimes with good faith, sometimes just for ignorance.

Romania is neutral. In OTL there were repeated instances of what euphemistically we could call "disordered conduct" by Ceausescu and his men in the context of the Warsaw Pact*. What I thought is that, while not prone to embarking himself and the country in a suicidal move like opposing the USSR, he could have exploit the occasion to cautiously wait and see; after all, if the WP should going to win he will simply have to throw in a token force before the final bell, if the NATO should going to prevail he could be survive anyway. Ogarkov is conceding him to play the non belligerent card because he do not want having such a pain in the ass constantly questioning everything as an ally and because waging war against Romania will be a waste of resources and a morale downer for the NSWP countries.

Even if the next update you will see again the crucial question thrown in, according to the shared ruling of a panel of the Corte Costituzionale the command of the armed forces is responsibility of the Presidente del Consiglio Bettino Craxi with the Presidente della Repubblica Sandro Pertini standing guarantor of the respect of the constitutional granted rights in the context. Political power, with the Italian Parliament suspended again under the guaranteeing of Pertini, is in the hand of the Craxi cabinet.

I find a little bit curious that you ask me about the Avvocato Agnelli; we will see him (and not only him...) quite soon.



* For concrete examples: A Cardboard Castle? An Inside History of the Warsaw Pact, 1955-1991.

 

[Chipperback]

"I find a little bit curious that you ask me about the Avvocato Agnelli; we will see him (and not only him...) quite soon.

I've always found Signore Agnelli fascinating, especially in regards to his beliefs on the role of NATO...and I'll admit...I always liked his suits.

 

[Chipperback]

"The Soviet counter-(counter) blow is coming very up soon. NATO's in for an ugly surprise when the Soviet's second-echelon armies, although apparently somewhat delayed by airstrikes, come roaring in...

The Soviets are readying to mount a new strike, but they've taken a harder hit that the expected. The Soviets were hoping that the U.S. would have to consider turning to a nuclear option early...as in hours of the first armor ripping into the West, or at least that is what Ogarkov would want (remember, Ogarkov really drinks the RYAN kool-aid, some others in the general staff are more prudent.)

But instead, this thing has lasted four days, and now the Soviets, much like the leadership did with Able Archer...are a little rattled. Their numerical advantage is daunting, but now a cut down to size a bit. The won some ground, but paid a heavier price than projected to do it. Too much of the battle is a stalemate (Berlin, Hamburg, Fulda). And consider the supply line. Yes, its faster to get from the Urals to Chemnitz, but a rail line of T-80s can easily be disrupted by some ticked off Pole, Ukrainian, Lithuanian or Estonian with the right tools....or by an American B-52 that's trading strategic for tactical deployment.

On the other side, They've had to concede some critical ground they'd love to win (air power, the retreat from the Middle East, a pesky nuisance or two in America's backyard).

That doesn't mean that now its NATO runaway. It is far from it. The Soviets still have the numbers and the tactics, but the weaknesses in command structure and technology is showing to the point to where the Soviets have to do one of two things:

1. Pull back and buy time diplomatically
OR
2. Intimidate. Even though they have enough sense to realize that the man in the White House will not be intimidated.

 

[freivolk]

The Soviet counter-(counter) blow is coming very up soon. NATO's in for an ugly surprise when the Soviet's second-echelon armies, although apparently somewhat delayed by airstrikes, come roaring in...

If their roaring doesn´t let the rotten east-german Infrastructure collapse.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

But instead, this thing has lasted four days,

That's pretty much how long it would take the Soviet 2nd Echelon too arrive and move into the attack, give or take.

Their numerical advantage is daunting, but now a cut down to size a bit.

Not enough. They would still have much more reserves then NATO.

Too much of the battle is a stalemate (Berlin, Hamburg, Fulda).

Stalemates which the 2nd echelon can break or, better yet, attack in much quieter areas of the front.

Yes, its faster to get from the Urals to Chemnitz, but a rail line of T-80s can easily be disrupted by some ticked off Pole, Ukrainian, Lithuanian or Estonian with the right tools....

That would likely delay things, only by two days at most

or by an American B-52 that's trading strategic for tactical deployment.

Thats actually the weakest part for me so far. Getting the B-52 into the routes in Poland means running in large, unmanueverable bombers through some of the thickest portions of Warsaw Pact air defences (both ground and air). WP SAMs are going to be even more of a threat then the missiles were in either Vietnam or the Gulf War (both because the missiles themselves are better and the personnel manning them are better) and escorts are a dubious prospect.

 

[Unknown]

The spanner in the works for the survivalists...it appears (shouldn't Neil have made sure the officer he shot wasn't wearing a bulletproof vest?).

The raid is going to occur on...Tuesday morning. Which happens to be...about the time it really starts going to hell. I just have this vision of the group being shot out of hand after Clayton and Frank see the mushroom clouds over Omaha and Offut AFB.

 

[Chipperback]

That's pretty much how long it would take the Soviet 2nd Echelon too arrive and move into the attack, give or take.

A piece of that Soviet 2nd echelon, is part of that Motor Rifle Division in places good Marxists don't believe exist.
NATO maybe on the short end of the numbers, but they've managed to cut into the Warsaw Pact enough to where that 2nd Echelon isn't as big and have to fight their way to the attack.

To break the stalemates, you have to get to them, and right now the Soviet commanders on the ground realize this. A smart pullback will give the Soviet the counterpunch you seek, but like anything in war, there is always a trade-off. The trade-off here is you've given you adversaries time to dig in build up and set up.

"better yet, attack in much quieter areas of the front."

But that's the rub. In the quiet areas are a bunch of yapping toy terriers. They hit they run, they leave and then they bring in some A-10 Thunderbolts and Harriers to pick off the wounded straglers.
The NATO teams are breaking the battlefield down into a lot of guerilla wars. Hit 'em where you are and where you ain't.

"That would likely delay things, only by two days at most"

In this type of war, hell any war, time is precious, be it seconds, minutes, or hours. A delay in hours of free troops and new equipment getting into the theatre is the difference between Soviet tanks pinching Stuttgart to the North, and gaining a major foothold and the Soviet marching into an empty city with enough wrecked T-72s and T-80s behind them to keep Fred Sanford in business for a century. They won the objective, but the price was so high that they lost an initiative.

For NATO planner at Heidelberg or Brussels, A two-day delay in Soviet reinforcement is Diana Rigg circa 1965. It's beautiful

"Getting the B-52 into the routes in Poland means running in large, unmanueverable bombers through some of the thickest portions of Warsaw Pact air defences (both ground and air). WP SAMs are going to be even more of a threat then the missiles were in either Vietnam or the Gulf War (both because the missiles themselves are better and the personnel manning them are better) and escorts are a dubious prospect.

A very fair contention, and a very real sticking point. Yeah, BUFFs are truly Big Ugly Flying Fellows...But in some skills hands, that unmanueverable bomber becomes something you can stick on a tree top and bring it through, and when you look at the guys who have to penetrate and stick a nuclear bomb on a first-down's worth of real estate, you are talking the best of the best.
SAMs? Yeah, they are going to be thick, but again...This is where having just a few ticked off people on the other side playing on your side can pay a dividend. You have a strike to carry out? You got a few ticked off East Germany students listening to a little Nina Hagen with an attitude with the right tools...BANG! No more SAM site. No more control bunker. True, it's hit or miss, but we're fighting for our NATO-Common Market bee-hinds here. I'll take an advantage anywhere I can get it.

Again, not saying it is easy. NATO is at the razor of the margins. What the NATO armies have managed to do is damn near superhuman and probably a better case scenario that an actual war under these conditions may have been, but war, like politics, never goes the way a textbook says in most cases.

 

[Mario Rossi]

That's pretty much how long it would take the Soviet 2nd Echelon too arrive and move into the attack, give or take.

I agree.

Not enough. They would still have much more reserves then NATO.

Indeed they have. But how strong and motivated are they? Please, note that I'm not saying that they are "easy meat" for (exhausted) NATO units. I'm just stressing they could be generally less capable to dealing with their tasks.

Stalemates which the 2nd echelon can break or, better yet, attack in much quieter areas of the front.

See above.

That would likely delay things, only by two days at most

If I didn't know already that everything is doomed to go down the flush, I'll say that two days can be a lot of time

Thats actually the weakest part for me so far. Getting the B-52 into the routes in Poland means running in large, unmanueverable bombers through some of the thickest portions of Warsaw Pact air defences (both ground and air). WP SAMs are going to be even more of a threat then the missiles were in either Vietnam or the Gulf War (both because the missiles themselves are better and the personnel manning them are better) and escorts are a dubious prospect.

I agree with that; especially considering that the BUFFs at the time couldn't have a conventional version of the AGM-86B yet. I see FB-111 more fitted to conventional mission deep inside WP countries.

 

[Chipperback]

" I see FB-111 more fitted to conventional mission deep inside WP countries."

I'll agree here, and that is the side in which Obssessed and I really agree. We have to use what we got, because were trying to get more FB-111s because we've lost quite a few of those.

Its a war of attrition, and we're seeing that on both sides because of tempo of the battle. Two massive superpower armies going all-in with big numbers. The stress showed fast.

 

[Lemon flavoured]

Nice mention of Doug Flutie in the last update lol. He was awesome. Random fact: He's the most recent person to score points (A PAT specifically) with a drop-kick in the NFL.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

A piece of that Soviet 2nd echelon, is part of that Motor Rifle Division in places good Marxists don't believe exist.
NATO maybe on the short end of the numbers, but they've managed to cut into the Warsaw Pact enough to where that 2nd Echelon isn't as big and have to fight their way to the attack.

I understand the '2nd Echelon isn't as big', but I don't understand 'fighting their way to the attack'. Could you elaborate?

But that's the rub. In the quiet areas are a bunch of yapping toy terriers. They hit they run, they leave and then they bring in some A-10 Thunderbolts and Harriers to pick off the wounded straglers.
The NATO teams are breaking the battlefield down into a lot of guerilla wars. Hit 'em where you are and where you ain't.

That wouldn't work. The Soviet response would be what they originally planned anyways: the manuever detachments would ignore those guys and keep on going into the enemies rear and let the follow-on forces deal with them. Sure, fight they would be fought if they came into contact, but if the NATO boys run then the Reds can safely ignore them and keep going right into the NATO's rear to cause havoc. That way the 'run' part of the 'hit-and-run' actually favors Soviets, because if NATO runs they can't keep the manuever forces pinned and would rapidly lose track of where those forces are which turns partially invalidates calling in the air force.

In this type of war, hell any war, time is precious, be it seconds, minutes, or hours.

True enough.

SAMs? Yeah, they are going to be thick, but again...This is where having just a few ticked off people on the other side playing on your side can pay a dividend. You have a strike to carry out? You got a few ticked off East Germany students listening to a little Nina Hagen with an attitude with the right tools...BANG! No more SAM site. No more control bunker. True, it's hit or miss, but we're fighting for our NATO-Common Market bee-hinds here. I'll take an advantage anywhere I can get it.

My main contention is that the Soviets didn't actually go for the whole 'command bunker thing' when it came too protecting stuff like supply lines (in which case it was a part of the IADS), but I see your point.

Again, not saying it is easy. NATO is at the razor of the margins. What the NATO armies have managed to do is damn near superhuman and probably a better case scenario that an actual war under these conditions may have been, but war, like politics, never goes the way a textbook says in most cases.

Yeah, I guess I'm cool with that.

Indeed they have. But how strong and motivated are they? Please, note that I'm not saying that they are "easy meat" for (exhausted) NATO units. I'm just stressing they could be generally less capable to dealing with their tasks.

A legitimate question and really, getting lucky enough to put the right people in the right place at the right time is a big part of winning a major conventional war. The Soviet system tried to minimize the factor of luck by trying to identify where the 'right place' would most likely be and then trying to find and put the 'right person' there so when the 'right time' came things would be resolved in their favor, but even they recognized that they could only minimize the impact of the real life version of the Random Numbers God and that the god may screw them over by making them screw-up in the identification process.

To apply it to this situation: it helps the Soviets if the 2nd Echelon is in the right place at the right time, but hurts them it they are not the right people. People are the greatest imponderable in the equation and we will (thankfully) never know what the final sum was.

 

[sloreck]

Given the buildup to the actual war, and the fact that the war has been going on for several days, this makes the difficulties of a Soviet nuclear strike on the US much greater. The US (and Canada) have lots of (civilian) airfields can that can provide places to disperse strategic bombers & refuelers. Furthermore a/c can be rotated like a shell game between dispersal sites and major bases (for maintenance etc) so that the potential target list becomes large, and there are only so many deliverable warheads - you want to hit active dispersal fields first. Same goes for taciar/interceptors. Likewise the Navy has gone to sea/dispersed (& as many boomers as possible at sea) & I would expect you'd see reserve/NG/active ground units dispersed even to national parks to try and prevent them all being juicy targets at major bases. Furthermore airborne alerts are ramped up, and missiles are as ready as possible. What this means is that the number of ICBMs that would be caught in their holes by Soviet missiles would be much fewer than if the war had started nuclear or a sneak attack. This will have some effects in many ways, and may cause the Soviets to waste assets hitting empty silos....

Some bomber facts - even in 1984 to hit the USA a large percentage of Soviet bombers had to move to forward (and more austere) airfields from their normal bases. this would be picked up by satellite, and also make them out of the fight for most conventional missions & they could only be kept at these fields a limited time due to their austere nature (and btw way fewer of these than civilian spots in US/Canada for SAC making targeting easier). Also, expect that major FAA air traffic control centers will have military detachments there by now. Even if dedicated air intercept radars go down due to attacks, these civilian radars will be useful - though not as good as the real deal & can function as backup air intercept centers.

Lastly, Middle East - I am not sure the Soviets will put much emphasis on nuking Israel, it is no threat to them in the immediate future, and can be dealt with later. The 200 advisors are totally expendable, and they have more important items on their plate than pulling Syria's chestnuts out of the fire. Nuking Israel means using missiles (which can be put to better use elsewhere) or sending bombers that would have to penetrate several layers (Turkish, Israeli, and maybe NATO navy) of air defense. BTW the Israelis won't send troops in any numbers in to Damascus - surround it, trash the command centers, maybe a few specops to go after leaders but urban warfare is bad for armor forces and eats infantry so why spend Israeli lives to go in to Damascus when you can let it die on the vine. After 4 days of war the vast majority of Soviet Navy vessels in the Med are gone, a few subs may linger but surface combatants toast as are most subs (trust me NATO would know here 90% of them were 24/7 at this point). Soviets never had boomers in the med, and subs carrying surface to surface missiles with potential for nuke warheads usable against land targets were few, and had limited nukes....these were for use against carrier battle groups, not to be wasted on Tel Aviv.

 

[Chipperback]

BTW the Israelis won't send troops in any numbers in to Damascus - surround it, trash the command centers, maybe a few specops to go after leaders but urban warfare is bad for armor forces and eats infantry so why spend Israeli lives to go in to Damascus when you can let it die on the vine.

The IDF could tell the wires one thing, but overall, they went in, killed some leaders. grabbed the Soviets, and left.

" I would expect you'd see reserve/NG/active ground units dispersed even to national parks to try and prevent them all being juicy targets at major bases.

You were a fly on the Nebraska Governor's wall, weren't you
That's the biggest key of the plan. Survive after the big hit to hit back.

"(shouldn't Neil have made sure the officer he shot wasn't wearing a bulletproof vest?).

Neil, like most of these yahoos, wouldn't understand basic counterinsurgency black ops stuff if you spoon fed it to them. Neil is a nervous, skittish, scared man who was willing to make a deal with the devil because he was angry and in a bind. Desperate people make the obvious missteps because they don't know what they are getting into. In a normal on-job situation on the street, Neil would do the checklist by instinct.

Neil is at the bottom of the rungs. The six guys they broke out are the footsoldiers. They aren't skittish or scared, but at the same time, they don't have a clue of what they're getting into or how they are being used.

 

[ivfl]

Actually Israel would be nuked for the simple fact that it has nuclear weapons and is a main ally of the US.Once the nuclear phase is reached any ally of the US of any importance is a legitimate target add to this the israeli nuclear arsenal which means in a postwar world if Israel is unharmed its a de facto superpower.The soviets know this as for no threat to them its debateable.While Israel could not possibly hit Moscow a israeli jet on a one way mission could conceivably hit something in southern Russia.Israel was on the soviet hit list during the Cold War in fact many World War III scenarios at the time started with Israel using nuclear weapons first against an arab country trigerring some kind of soviet response.There is the added fact that Israel is not that far from the Soviet Union,meaning soviet missilles are available in abundance to hit it and with better accuracy than they would hit something in the US.Most likely targets in Israel would be the Dimona nuclear reactor several hits to make sure its gone for good,presumed nuclear weapons storage facilities,possible chemical biological weapons production complexes,Jerusalem,Tel Aviv,Haifa,pretty much all air force bases to eliminate any chance of a israeli strike on the Soviet Union,main Israeli Navy bases,command centers,also presumed leadership bunkers,this pretty much covers it.Bad news for them considering their small size as a country coupled with the fact the some of these would be ground bursts like the hits on Dimona.

 

[sloreck]

That's a lot of warheads to use on Israel - in your scenario the country ends up one large bit of glowing green glass. While I agree that Israel would be on a Soviet list - it would be way low on that list. In a general nuclear exchange the Israelis are not going to hit Odessa or Sevastopol on a one way mission - those targets will be dealt with by others thank you very much - that scenario was to remind the Soviets not to get to helpful with the Arabs because in an Arab-Israeli conflict where the Soviets were helping the Arabs to overrun Israel there would be an unacceptable price for them to pay. Here Israel would get hit later on in a mopping up phase. Remember, if the USSR castrates the US then Israel can be dealt with, if dealing with Israel right away detracts from the previous goal..its not good for the USSR.

 

[ivfl]

At this point the soviet nuclear arsenal has been largely readied for use.Nuclear war plans have been updated with the latest data.While the US is the main target followed by other NATO countries the soviets have to assume the worst from all fronts.They have to assume chinese incursions in Siberia for example they cannot prepare for just one eventuality a US first strike they have to be ready for all scenarios.While some are more likely than others and some potentially more damaging than others they have to prepare for everything.So Israel at the very least has to be hit hard to eliminate its nuclear arsenal and the means to deliver it plus main command and control centers.A non-nuclear Israel would have been lower on the priority list but a nuclear armed country is too big a risk.Ironically Israel got hold of nukes to ensure its survival but in this scenario its the nukes making it a higher priority target.And the total number of nukes would not be that great somewhere around 50-70 hits, considering the small distances involved the number of duds would be significantly lower than in a strike on the US,even if the targets that Israel can hit would have been hit regardless by the US its better to have fewer strikes on your country so the logic that Israel can hit something applies regardless.Moscow would have been obliterated by the US doesn't mean the soviets would not care about incoming french,british or chinese warheads.Same here it may well be that by the time a israeli pilot gets close to Sevastopol to nuke it as a response he finds only a burning city doesn't mean the soviets would ignore the risk.

 

[basileus]

I've always found Signore Agnelli fascinating, especially in regards to his beliefs on the role of NATO...and I'll admit...I always liked his suits.

He had style to sell. And was our patron... in the sense of the patron of Juventus football club, when a certain Michel Platini delighted the masses.

 

[Wevans1995]

Chipperback,

This is amazing work! Thank you for creating such believable characters and situations. I await each update with nervous anticipation as zero hour draws closer. I hope Frank saves his daughter in time, that Tony survives in Germany and Chip and Jill have some happiness in the future (however bleak it looks).

Thanks again,
Wevans

 

[Chipperback]

"I was a PC in a precinct when it all started. Someone had said they are exploded the bomb over West Germany. Bloody hell. I'd never imagine they'd do it. But they did.
Now....Its just us and them. The Cowboys and Indians. You side with the Cowboys.

"They were in my back yard. Them. They came for our country. Them. Sneaking in from Yugoslavia like vermin.

I picked up my hunting rifle and did what I had to do. It was for me. It was for Italia.

"I always wanted to go to Texas A&M. My Daddy met my momma there. His daddy went there....I don't know if they're still alive. I'm sure they died when the Russkies attacked Dallas.

Its hard livin', but Texas is still here."

"Dad said we would evacuate Omaha. We're somewhere in Nebraska, if there still is one."

My dad is scared. My mom is scared. The boy i really like is scared. And so am I.
I'm only 12. I wanna be 13.

" I have my son. I have a chance. I have the tools I need to survive. But my God we were hit. So much death. So few people left. And some of those you wish weren't, like the men who tried to steal from my home.

I guess I shouldn't complain too much. If I hadn't busted my leg, i probably would have seen the bomb up close...In West Germany.

The Year: A 1984 that could have been.

This country has been attacked with nuclear weapons.

This is the world of Protect and Survive.

The original Protect and Survive: A Very British Apocalypse

Duck and Cover: A Journey of America's New Frontier.

Don't Turn Your Back On The Wolfpack: "The Road" can't touch this survival tale of father and son.

Noi non ci saremo: The War In Italy, from inside and outside

Land Of Flatwater: There's more than corn in Nebraska.