Who was Joe Purcell, you ask? Well, in 1982 he was the former Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas and was running for Governor in the Democratic primary, against former Governor Bill Clinton and state Attorney General Jim Guy Tucker. As of 1982 Arkansas was still basically a Democratic state in non-presidential elections--even in presidential elections Carter only lost it very narrowly in 1980, and would doubtless have won it had he not decided to house Cuban refugees in Fort Chaffee, Arkansas--so whoever won the Democratic primary was likely to beat Republican Governor Frank White in the general election. (White had narrowly defeated Clinton in 1980; again the Cuban refugee situation almost certainly made the difference. By 1982 he was in serious trouble for raising costs for prescriptions for the elderly, allowing utility rate increases and then getting a free trip on the utility's airplane, etc. He also got bad publicity nationwide for signing a bill requiring "balanced treatment" for evolution and creation, though that probably didn't hurt him locally.) Purcell finished second in the first round of the primary: Clinton got 42 percent of the vote to Purcell's 29% and Tucker's 23%.
One would think that Clinton, having gotten the most votes, would be favored in the runoff. But it doesn't always work that way in southern runoffs. Quite often all the losing candidates in the first round gang up to support the runner-up against the candidate who finished first. In any event, the runoff was fairly close: Clinton defeated Purcell 239,961 (53.76%) to 206,358 (46.24%) [1] Former Clinton aide David Watkins later said:
"Joe Purcell was second and we had a run-off against Joe Purcell. And, in fact, the weekend before the run-off election on a Tuesday; the run-off was two weeks after the primary election. Joe Purcell was leading in our polls. And, we did an advertising campaign over that weekend. Distributed radio ads and TV spots by volunteers. Did a caravan across the state. And, to Memphis and Tulsa and Shreveport. And, we had spots on the air; we got this information on the poll like Friday. And, produced the spots Friday night, all night; sent them out Saturday morning, early, and during the night. They were running on Saturday and Sunday. And, Bill Clinton wins like by 51/49 or something like that. So, he was very close to losing to, in the Democratic primary in 1982." https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/arkansas/interviews/watkins.html
Although the race was not quite as close as Watkins remembers, still it was close enough to make it plausible Purcell could win (even without any additional Clinton sex scandals...) The most obvious POD: simply let Purcell be a little bit less candid about the need to raise taxes. According to https://web.archive.org/web/20040427040546/http://arktimes.com/dumas/112202dumas.html(referring to a post-election tax hike proposal by recently re-elected Governor Huckabee):
"Huckabee's tax plan might not have elected Jimmie Lou Fisher, but the conventional strategy is that you do not take a chance on honesty before an election. There is a scant record on which to judge. Joe Purcell, a losing candidate for governor in 1982. Walter Mondale in 1984, before losing 49 of 50 states...." (Emphasis added.)
So we have Joe Purcell beating Bill Clinton in the runoff--and presumably also beating Republican Governor Frank White in November. Clinton has now lost two elections in a row--the 1980 general election for Governor and the 1982 primary. Assuming Purcell does a reasonably good job, it will be hard for Clinton to challenge him successfully, nor do Arkansas' two Democratic Senators--Dale Bumpers and David Pryor--look particularly vulnerable, and did not retire until 1998 and 1996, respectively. So does this end Bill Clinton's political prospects? Or can the "Comeback Kid" still make a comeback? Purcell, one should note, died on March 5, 1987, so presumably Winston Bryant becomes governor. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winston_Bryant Does Clinton have a chance of defeating him in 1990 (Arkansas having switched to four-year terms for governors)? Maybe, but it usually is hard to defeat an incumbent governor in a primary, and in any event, Clinton may be seen as a has-been by 1990, and even if he does win, he will not be taken seriously as a presidential candidate in 1992 with so few years as governor. Of course, Purcell might retire in 1986 or even 1984; even in 1982 he was "ill from diabetes and arthritis" according to https://encyclopediaofarkansas.net/entries/joe-edward-purcell-2456/
[1] The figures are from the Almanac of American Politics 1984, p.55, from which I also got the account of Frank White's troubles in 1982. That page also contains the memorable line about Clinton in 1978: "some, absurdly, mentioned this 32-year old incoming governor of a small state as a possible president."
One would think that Clinton, having gotten the most votes, would be favored in the runoff. But it doesn't always work that way in southern runoffs. Quite often all the losing candidates in the first round gang up to support the runner-up against the candidate who finished first. In any event, the runoff was fairly close: Clinton defeated Purcell 239,961 (53.76%) to 206,358 (46.24%) [1] Former Clinton aide David Watkins later said:
"Joe Purcell was second and we had a run-off against Joe Purcell. And, in fact, the weekend before the run-off election on a Tuesday; the run-off was two weeks after the primary election. Joe Purcell was leading in our polls. And, we did an advertising campaign over that weekend. Distributed radio ads and TV spots by volunteers. Did a caravan across the state. And, to Memphis and Tulsa and Shreveport. And, we had spots on the air; we got this information on the poll like Friday. And, produced the spots Friday night, all night; sent them out Saturday morning, early, and during the night. They were running on Saturday and Sunday. And, Bill Clinton wins like by 51/49 or something like that. So, he was very close to losing to, in the Democratic primary in 1982." https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/arkansas/interviews/watkins.html
Although the race was not quite as close as Watkins remembers, still it was close enough to make it plausible Purcell could win (even without any additional Clinton sex scandals...) The most obvious POD: simply let Purcell be a little bit less candid about the need to raise taxes. According to https://web.archive.org/web/20040427040546/http://arktimes.com/dumas/112202dumas.html(referring to a post-election tax hike proposal by recently re-elected Governor Huckabee):
"Huckabee's tax plan might not have elected Jimmie Lou Fisher, but the conventional strategy is that you do not take a chance on honesty before an election. There is a scant record on which to judge. Joe Purcell, a losing candidate for governor in 1982. Walter Mondale in 1984, before losing 49 of 50 states...." (Emphasis added.)
So we have Joe Purcell beating Bill Clinton in the runoff--and presumably also beating Republican Governor Frank White in November. Clinton has now lost two elections in a row--the 1980 general election for Governor and the 1982 primary. Assuming Purcell does a reasonably good job, it will be hard for Clinton to challenge him successfully, nor do Arkansas' two Democratic Senators--Dale Bumpers and David Pryor--look particularly vulnerable, and did not retire until 1998 and 1996, respectively. So does this end Bill Clinton's political prospects? Or can the "Comeback Kid" still make a comeback? Purcell, one should note, died on March 5, 1987, so presumably Winston Bryant becomes governor. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winston_Bryant Does Clinton have a chance of defeating him in 1990 (Arkansas having switched to four-year terms for governors)? Maybe, but it usually is hard to defeat an incumbent governor in a primary, and in any event, Clinton may be seen as a has-been by 1990, and even if he does win, he will not be taken seriously as a presidential candidate in 1992 with so few years as governor. Of course, Purcell might retire in 1986 or even 1984; even in 1982 he was "ill from diabetes and arthritis" according to https://encyclopediaofarkansas.net/entries/joe-edward-purcell-2456/
[1] The figures are from the Almanac of American Politics 1984, p.55, from which I also got the account of Frank White's troubles in 1982. That page also contains the memorable line about Clinton in 1978: "some, absurdly, mentioned this 32-year old incoming governor of a small state as a possible president."
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