Israeli Peace with Jordan and Lebanon

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Jackson Lennock, Jan 7, 2018.

  1. Jackson Lennock Well-Known Member

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    In 1949, Abdullah of Jordan opened up secret negotiations with the Israelis the establishment of peace between Jordan and Israel. In 1951 he was shot in Jerusalem by a member of the al-Husayni clan. Abdullah was in the city for a funeral, but was also in the city to meet Mossad Director Reuven Shiloah and diplomat Moshe Sasson.

    Supposedly, Lebanon was for being the second country to make peace with Israel (should Jordan do so).

    So what if Jordan and Lebanon made peace with Israel in the early 1950s?
     
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  2. PatrickMtz Well-Known Member

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    July 17, 1951: Lebanese Prime Minister Riad Al Solh escapes an assassination attempt in Amman. Jordanian security forces increase security for King Abdullah's visit to East Jerusalem

    July 19, 1951: Several men are arrested in East Jerusalem accused of planning to kill the king.

    July 22, 1951: After praying at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, King Abdullah meets secretly with Mossad director Reuven Shiloah and Minister Moshe Sasson. Abdullah informs them that he's willing to negotiate peace with Israel, with the support of the Lebanese Prime Minister Riad Al Solh.

    August 27, 1951: Golda Meirsecretly travels to Amman to inform King Abdullah that the Israeli government is willing to enter into negotiations with Jordan and Lebanon.

    August 30, 1951: The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs receives a message from the Lebanese Prime Minister through the French embassy: "Lebanon is willing to make peace with Israel as soon as a peace with Jordan is achieved"

    September-December 1951: During these months there are more meetings and contacts between Israel and Jordan, the British especially support Abdullah to stabilize the eastern area and its most important Arab ally. Often the discussions get heated a little, but they manage to take a good course.

    February 18, 1952: The Israeli government announces that a peace agreement has been reached with Jordan. In Amman the announcement is given in a more discreet way, there are demonstrations against the agreement in Amman, Irbid and Nablus, but they are quickly repressed. The agreement is widely condemned by the Arab League, in particular by Egypt, Syria and Iraq, the tone of the Lebanese conviction is suspiciously mild.

    March 12, 1952: The delegations of Israel and Jordan meet in the city of Nicosia on the British island of Cyprus for the signing of the peace treaty whose terms are the following:

    "Treaty of Friendship, Reconciliation and Mutual Assistance between the State of Israel and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan"

    • Recognition of the State of Israel by Jordan.
    • Normalization of diplomatic relations between both countries.
    • Israel will annex the Latrun salient and its no-man's land.
    • Israel will annex the no-man's land around the area of Ramat Rachel.
    • Israel will annex part of the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood to create a corridor towards Mount Scopus.
    • Israel will annex an area east of Mount Sion corresponding to the City of David.
    • A corridor will be created from Mount Scopus to the Mount of Olives that will be annexed by Israel.
    • The Old City of Jerusalem will be divided between Israel and Jordan, Israel will annex the Armenian and Jewish Quarters while Jordan will annex the Christian and Muslim Quarters, the Temple Mount will remain under Jordanian control. There will be freedom of movement for people within the old city, but they will need to show their passport to the border authorities if they wish to exit it to the other country.
    • Israel will recognize the Jordanian sovereignty over Judea and Samaria and will refrain from making any future territorial claims on them.
    • Israel will recognize the rest of the 1967 armistice line, the Jordan River and Wadi Ara as the definitive border between the two states.
    • Both states will provide financial assistance to each other.
    • Jordan will absorb the refugees of the 1948 war by granting them their nationality.
    koko.png
    The State of Israel after the Nicosia Peace Treaty

    Map Jerusalem.png
    Division of Jerusalem

    March 13, 1952: The news of the peace treaty with Jordan provokes an outburst of general jubilation in Israel, especially because of the news that Jewish holy places will once again be in their hands. In Jordan there are mixed reactions, there are demonstrations against that are repressed again by the army. In the rest of the Arab world there are large demonstrations against Abdullah's head calling him a traitor. The rest of the world in general looks favorably on the peace treaty.

    March 14, 1952: From Gaza, Amin al-Husseini declares a holy war against the "infidel jews and the traitor Abdullah", despite making a lot of noise, his call does not get an answer.

    March 19, 1952: The Arab league suspends Jordan from the organization, Lebanon abstains from the vote.

    April 24, 1952: The works to mark the definitive borders between Israel and Jordan begin. The former inhabitants of the Jewish Quarter of the Old City begin the reconstruction works.

    August 12, 1952: The marking of borders ends, the demonstrations in the Arab world have calmed down. Israeli and Lebanese diplomats have begun to meet in secret in Paris.

    August 28, 1952: In a session of the Lebanese parliament, Prime Minister Riad Al Solh delivers a speech in which he describes the benefits of making peace with Israel now that Jordan has. After a heated debate of 14 hours, the parliament, composed mostly of independent candidates, approves the sending of a delegation to Israel to negotiate a peace treaty. Damascus is furious.

    September 01, 1952: A car bomb explodes outside the Lebanese Parliament, 13 passers-by and 2 ministers are killed, all suspicions are directed at Damascus.

    September 14, 1952: The Lebanese delegation arrives at Jerusalem to discuss the probability of a peace agreement and its possible terms.

    September 16, 1952: Two grenades are thrown at the Maghen Abraham Synagogue in Beirut, 5 people are killed. Again the suspicions are directed at Damascus.

    September 20, 1952: The Lebanese delegation returns to Beirut after a successful negotiation with the Israeli government. The Lebanese Parliament is satisfied, although many ministers (pressured by Damascus) are opposed to it.

    November 04, 1952: The Lebanese and Israeli delegations meet in Paris to sign the pace treaty whose terms are the following:

    "Treaty of Peace and cooperation between the Lebanese Republic and the State of Israel"

    • Recognition of the State of Israel by the Lebanese Republic.
    • Recognition of the pre-1948 borders as definitive between both states.
    • The creation of an economic assistance program between both countries
    November 05, 1952: The news of the Lebanese-Israeli peace treaty once again sparks a wave of jubilation and festivities throughout Israel. The approval levels of Prime Minister David Ben Gurion reach 90%. In Beirut attitudes are much more discreet, many Maronite leaders express their approval for the peace treaty stating that it will bring stability to the country. The Sunni and Palestinian communities are quiet, strangely quiet, many are shocked by the fact that the refugee issue has not been mentioned. of the 1948 war. But the Lebanese government has "other plans" for them.

    November 07, 1952: In an emergency session the Arab League suspends Lebanon from the organization, at the same time, Damascus suspends diplomatic relations with the country.

    To be continued...
     
  3. Jackson Lennock Well-Known Member

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    Did I just accidentally inspire a timeline?

    If so... awesome!
     
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  4. Musketeer513 Member

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    I like. The butterflies will be interesting.
     
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  5. mike of mass Well-Known Member

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    I like this timeline. Both Lebanon and Jordan are much more stable in the fifties. Arab nationalism is high but not yet completely merged with Islamic nationalism. Britian would have to be heavily involved in subsidizing the Jordanians. Can they afford it or will Eisenhower take over the subsidies? He was very reluctant as his administration was worried about tipping the Arabs ( Egypt) over to the Soviets. This might preserve the hashemite regime in bagdad preserving the nothern tier.
     
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  6. Jackson Lennock Well-Known Member

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    I wonder what the fate of Gaza would be down the line. With the matter of the West Bank settled, the direct annexation of Gaza wouldn't be a demographic issue for Israel. One might even apply this logic to part or all of Sinai as well.

    Here is what Israel could perhaps look like down the line. Gaza, the Yamit settlement cluster, Taba, and a bit more of the Sinai Desert are Israeli here along with the Golan.

    The sliver of Sinai probably has 300k people. Gaza has 1.9 million people today.



    In a situation in which there is peace with Lebanon and Jordan, I wonder if an Israel-Lebanon-Jordan customs union could emerge. Free movement EU-style seems unlikely, but perhaps visa-free travel could be possible by the 2000s.



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    Last edited: May 14, 2019
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  7. Thomas Wilkins Banned

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    Looks like you just created a TL! Keep going, this better be good ;)
     
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  8. HBsennah94 He Who Likes History - But Wonders What If

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    Has potential. More.
     
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  9. Ramontxo Believes San Mames is Heaven Donor

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    Yes please follow with this...
     
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  10. jocay Well-Known Member

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    If the Arabs do end up going pro-Soviet, maybe Eisenhower is inclined to support Britain, France and Israel in the Suez Crisis. Perhaps Israeli control over Suez?
     
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  11. Minchandre Well-Known Member

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    What does Jordan get out of this? Jordan makes a bunch of land concessions and agrees to enact a policy that they OTL spent a lot of effort trying to avoid (and which overthrow their monarchy in all likelihood). Israel provides financial assistance, I guess, and a formal cessation of hostilities - but frankly Israel wants that more than Jordan anyway.
     
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  12. Jackson Lennock Well-Known Member

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    @PatrickMtz wrote the excellent mini-TL that I bumped so it might be better answered by him.

    My two cents would be that Jordan was pretty desperate for recognition of the West Bank. Until 1988, the only two countries that recognized the Jordanian annexation were the United Kingdom and Pakistan. Solidifying legal sovereignty over the territory would be a big win for the Jordanians.

    I'm also not sure what you mean by policy they were trying to avoid. The King of Jordan was very much for something like this. It was his assassination in 1951 by a Palestinian Nationalist from the Husseini Clan (yes that Husseini Clan) that changed Jordanian Policy. In 1951 Jordan and Lebanon were already looking at a separate peace with Israel, which prompted the assassination of the former PM of Lebanon in 1951 by Palestinian Nationalists in Amman. King Abdullah was in Jerusalem ostensibly to speak at a funeral but also to meet with Mossad Director Reuven Shiloah and future Egyptian Envoy Moshe Sasson.

    Abdullah's grandson, who would become King a year later, was with his grandfather when the assassination took place. He only survived because his grandfather pinned a medal to his chest which deflected a bullet. This experience was what made him unwilling to make any sort of peace with Israel following the six-day war: he didn't want to have the same fate as his grandfather.

    As for territorial exchanges, Israel and Jordan OTL exchanged land in the Judean Hills for the Arab Triangle.

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    Some other big implications here
    • Palestinian Refugees will be heading to Jordan here. By 2019 that's probably ~2million more people in Jordan if the Palestinians in Kuwait, Syria, Saudi Arabia, etc head there TTL
    • Israel already had a Civil War between the PLO and the Hashemites OTL. I wonder what the TTL equivalent would be like
    • With a peace with Israel, I doubt the PLO would be allowed into Lebanon. Furthermore, Muslim Palestinians would probably be in Jordan (polling of Lebanese in the 50s and 60s found there to be general support for letting Christian Palestinians stay, but muslims palestinians staying was a divisive issue). Maybe
    • What would the knock-on effects be for Hashemite Iraq be? I'm not sure. If there's an Arab Federation TTL, would the peace include Baghdad? Does a Hashemite Iraq mean the British don't oppose an Iraqi Kuwait?
    • Not having to occupy the West Bank or Defend against Jordan means more military resources in Egypt's direction.
    • Jordan and Lebanon are the enemies of the Nationalist Arab World TTL, even moreso than OTL. I can see Nasser raging against the Hashemites as being traitors to the Arab cause.
     
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  13. rocke Well-Known Member

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    wow an actual succesful peace treaty between isreal and there enemies... subsribed
     
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  14. Georgie Washington Member

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    Frankly I see any peace that has Israel give up any part of Jerusalem to be ASB. Best that could be is Jordan has special rights over some holy sites, and even that can cause riots since the Dome of the Mosque is literally inside the holiest place in all of Judaism. There's hardly a way to divide territory that gives the Dome to one and the Temple to the other; the Temple site includes the Dome. Christians being ok with being in a Muslim nation instead of Israel? Hardly believe that would go ok as well.
     
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  15. haider najib Well-Known Member

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    Palestinian christians are a thing.
     
  16. Jackson Lennock Well-Known Member

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    Israel OTL agreed to numerous partitions of Jerusalem in which the Christian, Muslim, and Armenian quarters of the city were to go to the Palestinians.
     
  17. CountDVB Dual Emperor of the Aztech and Maychanical Empires

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    So here, I reckon something similar would be the case here
     
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  18. Francisco Cojuanco To hell with Angelides and Pete Wilson

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    Historically, some of the most militant of the Palestinians have been Christians.
     
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