Hypothetically, if there were no threat from the west, is Poland capable of pulling off a 1921-style defeat of the Soviet Union in 1939, or even of surviving a Soviet attack?
Is there a snowball's chance in hell of Poland defeating the Red Army in 1939?
- Thread starter NeonHydroxide
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von kressenstein
Banned
uhm... you have several major problems with this....
one are the germans still nazi's?
if so .. they are coming.. if only on the pretext of defending poland along with the rest of the west...
ok.. so everyone is quite..
the Soviet Union is not going to invade poland waaaay to much risk .. will cause major major problems.. as in the west is not going to stand for this. Poland could hold its own until the west came to help. one front.. poland is strong enough to do this.
Deleted member 1487
Hahaha. No.
Edit:
In the long run Poland is doomed on its own without outside intervention, no matter the cost to the USSR in the actual victory; they have the resources to win no matter what, its just a question of whether the Poles can get support from outside. The Ukrainians and non-Polish Slavs would probably turn on the Poles too, which makes their problems that much tougher.
Edit:
In the long run Poland is doomed on its own without outside intervention, no matter the cost to the USSR in the actual victory; they have the resources to win no matter what, its just a question of whether the Poles can get support from outside. The Ukrainians and non-Polish Slavs would probably turn on the Poles too, which makes their problems that much tougher.
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It depends how long Poland fights alone. If nobody else joins in the Red Army's numerical superiority will lead to a Soviet victory in the long run. But unlike the OTL fighting between Poland and Germany:
-Poland's military hardware is intended for this sort of war
-Poland actually has decent plans for such a war
-The Red Army's performance will be terrible (as it was in OTL in Poland and Finland)
so this will be no easy victory for Stalin. Especially if Poland makes some different economic decisions then in OTL, stops caring about balancing its budget and instead goes on an arming spree, resulting in far more tanks, airplanes and so on then it had in our timeline. The war may even have a phase where the majority of the fighting takes place on Soviet soil.
Did the Poles take that Teschen and Zaloie from Czeckoslovakia and Lithuania in this while the Germans and Hungarians took chunks of Czeckoslovakia during the two partitions? Is Romania in a position to help as part of the Little Entente and did they need to give up land to their neighbors late?
There most certainly is a chance.
Lets keep some things in mind. I know some dismiss the myth of blitzkreig as used by the Germans, but the speed and surprise of their offensive really caught the Poles off guard. They didn't properly mobilize and the defense, while noble, was heavily outnumbered by an enemy who ruled the skies and knew how to use their tanks properly (Poland was using French tank tactics).
With the Soviets, it's different. Most of us are aware of the dismal performance of Soviet forces in the Finland in the winter of 1939, and how the Finns, heavily outnumbered, were able to contain Russian advances and indeed cause some embarrassing reversals to the Red Army. Now the Finns also had the weather and terrain on their side, but they lacked enough tanks and planes, and eventually had to settle for peace.
A war between Poland and the Soviet Union would probably commence through the Eastern Polish Frontier. This is a long border in 1939, and is fairly flat from what I have heard. So the Poles will lose the terrain advantage Finland had. But Poland does have more tanks and planes than the Finns, and thus offensive capability. Their equipment is on par with the Soviets too.
The Mosin-Nagant and Mauser aren't too disimilar from each other, though I have heard the Mosin is more reliable, so no distinct advantage there. The primary Polish tank was the 7TP, which was a copy of the highly successful Vickers 6-Ton, albeit with a more powerful engine and a 37mm gun. The primary Russian vehicle is the T-26, which is also a Vickers 6-Ton clone albeit with a 45mm gun. Poland also has quite a few FT-17s and I think some Renault R-35s. The Soviets have their BT series and their assortment of heavy tanks. On the ground, quality is equal, but the Soviets have much more metal to throw than the Poles, but there is something they can do, that I will address in a bit.
The air forces of Poland and the Soviets show disparity primarily in numbers too. The Polish PZL P.11c was their primary fighter plane and was outdated at the time, it's gull wing design and fixed landing gear was not keeping up with the more modern German, British, and French. But the P.37 Los was arguably when of the best medium bombers in the world. The Soviet designs were also older though too. While the Soviet Air Force could call up to 3800 fighter planes, they were mostly the Polikarpov I-15 and I-16. The I-15 was a biplane fixed landing gear design, while the I-16 was a sleeker monoplane design. The I-16s saw service in the Spanish Civil War, and I believe, correct me if Im wrong, gave a fairly good account of themselves. Quality isn't too different here, though I'd say the I-16 is superior to the P.11c, with greater range, speed, and armament, but there's still a chance.
When Germany attacked, they made efforts to cripple the Polish Air Force on the ground. I don't know if the Soviets would neccisarily do the same. The purges may have something to do with tactical defficiencies. This brings the possibility of the Polish Air Force being a threat for much longer than it was to Germany. That and I think Polish morale will be greater due to harks back to the war in 1921, and all that nationalistic propaganda, whereas the average Soviet soldier may be wondering why he is fighting. And, Poland has a means to ressuply. I doubt the Soviet Navy had the capability to blockade Danzig, which in this scenario, is still open, and far from the front. Poland had some navy as well, and I think keeping Danzig open would be their priority. I don't know a lot about the Soviet Navy of this time, but what I have, isn't impressive. So if someone has information regarding their size and performance, please share it, as it would be interesting to see if they could have blockaded or taken Danzig. Anyway, if Danzig is able to be used, Poland can import tanks, planes, guns, ammo, etc. from France, the U.K, and the U.S. if they can halt the Soviets, and bring a stalemate, Danzig brings the opportunity to stay in the game much longer.
Now that's just my take on things, and I'm sure I've overlooked things, but I'd wager Poland had much more than a snowballs chance in hell.
Sure--the German Reich will defend its heroic Polish neighbors against Bolshevik aggression. Of course in return, it will get Danzig and the Corridor, with Poland being compensated with Soviet territory. ("You want access to the sea? The Black Sea is also a sea!")
historynutty
Banned
Were Germany and Poland to fight as allies they could probably top the Red Army fora while. Were Britain and France to join in a drive to the east to uproot communism the odds of reaching a Urals stop line in 2 - 3 years are good- especially if war is conducted in a civilised manner.
Poland by itself could not keep the Red Army out of Warsaw for more than three months. Moving across a flat plain in summer/fall on a wide front is just so much easier than advancing through virgin forest and 20 foot snow drifts on a narrow front.
Poland by itself could not keep the Red Army out of Warsaw for more than three months. Moving across a flat plain in summer/fall on a wide front is just so much easier than advancing through virgin forest and 20 foot snow drifts on a narrow front.
That about sums it up. Poland can't win without the Reich throwing in and if they do they end up the Reich's bitch politically.
Poland loses the corridor, but gets it somewhat made up by Russian land.
Deleted member 1487
Which is why they rejected an alliance with the Soviets in the lead up to war with Germany in 1939
Deleted member 1487
Prior to the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact the British and French were talking to Stalin to build an anti-Hitler coalition, but Poland refused to allow the Soviets on their soil as part of that deal because they knew the Soviets wouldn't leave after the help was no longer needed, so Stalin worked with Hitler instead. If Poland had to turn to Germany for help they know that that would mean becoming Germany's vassal and that's no better than being occupied by the Soviets, so they'd likely decline.
I would actually think their odd aren't all that bad. Going purely off the Soviet performance in Finland, the (from what I hear, better than history lets on) Polish army might be able to hold the Russians back for a while. Eventually the Russians will break through and win, if Stalin doesn't blink and is willing to take the casualties and embarrassments.
But for a few months the Red Army is going hurt for little gain.
But for a few months the Red Army is going hurt for little gain.
I was pretty sure of this response. Does anyone have sold facts and documents about the relative strengths and plans of the two armies at the time?
I have a recent book based on Kremlin archives, and this page seems to be accurate: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_order_of_battle_for_invasion_of_Poland_in_1939
Its a bit different if the Red Army is at the gates of Warsaw again and this time with enough forces to win. If that happens and Warsaw gets taken the Germans are just going to gobble up the rest of Poland anyway with the official story that they are doing it for their own protection and 'protecting the Poles' by annexing them so the Poles are already in a FUBAR situation.
Germany in 1920 was too weak and in too much upheaval to do anything... 1939 is a totally different story.
It's 1939. No one knows what Germany is capable of (IIRC Poland's worst fear at the time was gas attacks on cities during military operations), but Soviet vileness is (rightly) feared. How it actually might be depends on what goes on in Hitler's brain. If he is still in his 'Poland can be a useful vassal' phase, being a German client may well be better for Poland then becoming a soviet republic.
It certainly may seem better at the time. But unless the vassal-Poland proves so valuable that the "Kill them all and take the land" switch doesn't get thrown in Hitler's brain, it won't go any better than OTL.
And I just don't know if vassal-Poland could ever make itself that useful.
Possibly. IIRC Hitler tried to get Poland in the Axis. Poland refused, fearing becoming a German client-state. If, for whatever reason the Soviets attacked first and accepting German assistance is the only way to not become the latest SSR, Poland probaby would bite the bullet.
As for whether Hitler decided to go "Kill all the Poles" after the war is another issue. But he was capable of impressive mental gymnastics to fit an ally into his worldview.
If he can call the Japanese "honorary Aryans" then surely he could find some excuse for Poland, like they are a "proper civilization" due to historic contact/being neighbors with Prussia or other German states. Or some excuse how they were changed by the Partitions or how the "real" evil Slavs are those dirty Russians. Allowances were made for the other minor Axis members (Hungary, Romania), so, as unpalatable as an alliance with Germany might be to the Poles I doubt Hitler would still go the "kill them all" route after a hypothetical Germano-Polish/Soviet War.
Also, I think someone mentioned it earlier but what would Poland's other neighbors do in the event of a Soviet invasion? Would Hungary or Romania stand with Poland? And how might that affect the outcome?
IMHO a Soviet-Polish war would have two big differences to the Winter War
I) The Soviets wouldnt treat it as a local campaign like they initially treated the attack on Finland
II) This is a war they have long time planning for and the Poles wont have the terrain and weather advantages the Finns had.
I) The Soviets wouldnt treat it as a local campaign like they initially treated the attack on Finland
II) This is a war they have long time planning for and the Poles wont have the terrain and weather advantages the Finns had.