I kind of like my idea of having both the Irish military and British military prepare covert spec ops strikes on the same IRA target at roughly the same time at night under cover of darkness. Only for the intel to turn out to be bad and the target is empty. Then some confusion erupts with the two raiding forces briefly thinking the other is IRA and a gunbattle erupting before someone comes to their senses.
At which point apologies and recriminations are made, each blaming the other. Even that isn't going to escalate things to a war level. Again: dead member of the Royal Family in Irish waters, dead Ambassador and wife in Ireland, the UK embassy burned to the ground, long time suggestion/rumour of UK collusion with the largest terror attack on the island against Dublin and Monaghan... None of this triggered such an escalation, so why would a regrettable "accident" do so?
 
At which point apologies and recriminations are made, each blaming the other. Even that isn't going to escalate things to a war level. Again: dead member of the Royal Family in Irish waters, dead Ambassador and wife in Ireland, the UK embassy burned to the ground, long time suggestion/rumour of UK collusion with the largest terror attack on the island against Dublin and Monaghan... None of this triggered such an escalation, so why would a regrettable "accident" do so?

Wow didn't know about the ambassador. Gotta say losing an eye while fighting the Nazi's and responding by wearing a smoked glass monacle over the false replacement one is pretty bad ass.

But yeah I agree it's unlikely my scenario would result in war.

I mean wow the UK put up with a lot of shit from the Provo's over the years without going full bore.
 
This would have triggered Section 5 of the NATO treaty obligating NATO to come to the defense of Great Britain. It would only take 24 hours for the ready brigade of the 82nd Airborne to be on the ground in Belfast. Talk about a mess.

While technically true, I don't see London accepting U.S. ground troops even if they were offered. Air support and naval support, on the other hand, as well as intelligence and logistics? Something else entirely.

Having read an article from The Irish Times published in '01 shortly after documents confirming the existence of Exercise ARMAGEDDON, with what other research I could do in this regard, I simply can't see this going well for the Irish Republic under any conceivable circumstances. Even senior Irish military leaders at the time spoke blatantly of how it had no hope of success, and would invite disastrous consequences for the Free State.

For example, it is estimated the Irish Army would be able to call up, organize, equip and otherwise prepare something like 2,500 soldiers. This would be sent up against 13,000 British military personnel, as well as 8,500 Northern Irish armed police and reserve/militia forces already in the country, in addition to which the U.K. would have been reliably able to quickly deploy 20,000 additional personnel to Northern Ireland once the invasion began.

Other problems included a lack of trucks for the Transport Corps of the Free State's military forces, and the fact that not all areas of Northern Ireland with large Catholic minorities were reliably within reach of the planned invasion, to say nothing of the fact that all of Ireland would be within reach of the Royal Air Force and the Royal Navy.

Irish success would depend on the British and the locals of Northern Ireland actively deciding for some reason not to fight.
 
The Offical IRA did. The Provos did not, that was why the IRA split between the Offical IRA(Marxist) and the Provisional IRA(non-Marxist)in 1969.
The Provos got their weapons and money from America and Lybia.
Oh the Warsaw Pact gave a bit of aid and assistance to the Provisionals once it became clear that the Officials (Stickies) were going to take a largely non violent political path. Not for ideological reasons but because it diverted British military resources away from NATO and Oman commitments. The ethnically homogeneous East Germans were used to deliver training. The Russians wanted to use the Czechoslovaks as well but, in a single exception to an otherwise completely obsequious subservience to the USSR, Gustav Husak objected on the grounds that it would leave Czechoslovakia open to retaliatory arming and training of Slovak separationists by Western intelligence services and Moscow agreed that he had a point. And there has always been speculation that people like Brian Keenan and Gerry Kelly were KGB inserts into the Provisionals.
 
While technically true, I don't see London accepting U.S. ground troops even if they were offered. Air support and naval support, on the other hand, as well as intelligence and logistics? Something else entirely.

Having read an article from The Irish Times published in '01 shortly after documents confirming the existence of Exercise ARMAGEDDON, with what other research I could do in this regard, I simply can't see this going well for the Irish Republic under any conceivable circumstances. Even senior Irish military leaders at the time spoke blatantly of how it had no hope of success, and would invite disastrous consequences for the Free State.

For example, it is estimated the Irish Army would be able to call up, organize, equip and otherwise prepare something like 2,500 soldiers. This would be sent up against 13,000 British military personnel, as well as 8,500 Northern Irish armed police and reserve/militia forces already in the country, in addition to which the U.K. would have been reliably able to quickly deploy 20,000 additional personnel to Northern Ireland once the invasion began.

Other problems included a lack of trucks for the Transport Corps of the Free State's military forces, and the fact that not all areas of Northern Ireland with large Catholic minorities were reliably within reach of the planned invasion, to say nothing of the fact that all of Ireland would be within reach of the Royal Air Force and the Royal Navy.

Irish success would depend on the British and the locals of Northern Ireland actively deciding for some reason not to fight.
The UK wouldn't need any resources from anyother nation to handle Ireland at this or really any point. I mean at this stage the total naval capabilities are a handful of OPV's with 40mm crew mounts taken from the Corvette's, I'm fairly sure the RN could take them (and given officers of the NS were still taking operational training tours in the RN they would know everything (there's an amusing story of an Irish Navy Ensign on a tour on HMS Fearless being accosted by a more than slightly drunk Princess Margret telling him to "have a word" with Haughey to get Ireland into NATO, said officer is now the Chief of Staff). And as mentioned the AC capabilities are so minor that they don't even rate.

The Defence Forces knew full well how outclassed they would be, that Exercise was basically a "are you shitting" piece of paperwork. Also fyi the Free State hasn't existed since 1937.
 
Unless London has explicitly cut Ulster loose with an "You're on your own" or (better yet) actively cooperated with Dublin with a goal of stomping the paramilitaries flat? Not going to happen.
 
My understanding is that the deployment of Irish troops to the border in 1969 was to firstly help the passage of refugees into the Republic. And secondly to put pressure on Westminster to use British troops to rein in the Loyalist mobs and RUC.

Any later plans would have been for a Doomsday scenario where the British simply withdrew troops and left the territory to anarchy.
 
Other problems included a lack of trucks for the Transport Corps of the Free State's military forces, and the fact that not all areas of Northern Ireland with large Catholic minorities were reliably within reach of the planned invasion, to say nothing of the fact that all of Ireland would be within reach of the Royal Air Force and the Royal Navy.

I loved the bit from Wikipedia about the planners suggesting making up for the lack of transport by hiring buses from Irish bus companies.

I'm imagining a horde of Irish Battle Buses trying to charge the before before being stopped by the border checkpoint.

British Soldier "And what reason are you visiting Northern Ireland Today?"
Irish Soldier "Invasion."
British "Ahh got a couple of jokers. Bloody tourists."

The Irish Battle Bus Battalion is then let through. They then make it a few miles before being stopped for about three hours at a toll booth as the officer who was supposed to bring the toll money forgot his wallet. They try and see if any of the troops have any odds and ends coins but are defeated leading to the officer who forgot his wallet being sent back to The Republic to get his wallet from home. Unfortunately after a mile or so his bus will break down. Thankfully the officer will manage to hitchhike with a friendly group of British soldiers in a Land Rover.

And thus the Irish Invasion of Northern Ireland persevered.
 
The idea that the British Army would ever engage in large-scale massacres of civilians within the United Kingdom is...inaccurate...and incredibly offensive.
More likely Loyalist extremists and maybe elements within the Ulster Constbulary forces commit reprisals.
 
Irish army invades.
Followed by thousands of Irish shoppers who buy up all the cheap TVs, VHS, petrol, booze and tobacco they can get their hands on.
Chemist shops are hit by Irish shoppers looking for birth control. birth control banned in the republic.
CB radios sell out fast too. illegal in the Republic of Ireland
Irish buy every new and second-hand car they can get their hand on a lot cheaper than the republic of Ireland.
Books shops sell out of playboy and other girly mags banned in the republic.
All that stuff is cheaper north of the border than the republic.
With so many civilian shoppers north of the border jamming the roads military operations on both sides have to cease operations.
Irish army gives up and joins the shoppers.
The whole thing descends into farce. ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)
Shops south of the border, car dealers etc go bankrupt.
 
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Irish army invades.
Followed by thousands of Irish shoppers who buy up all the cheap TVs, VHS, petrol, booze and tobacco they can get their hands on.
Chemist shops are hit by Irish shoppers looking for birth control. birth control banned in the republic.
CB radios sell out fast too. illegal in the republic of Ireland
Irish buy every new and second-hand car they can get their hand on a lot cheaper than the republic of Ireland.
Books shops sell out of playboy and other girly mag banned in the republic.
All that stuff is cheaper north of the border than the republic.
Irish army gives up and joins the shoppers.
The whole thing descends into farce. ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)
Shops south of the border, car dealers etc go bankrupt.

You forgot the hordes of Irish descending on the UK in order to get divorced.

Sort of like a colder wetter version of Vegas but with quickie divorces instead of quickie marriages.
 
You forgot the hordes of Irish descending on the UK in order to get divorced.

Sort of like a colder wetter version of Vegas but with quickie divorces instead of quickie marriages.
Foreign divorces of Irish residents were not recognised in the Republic of Ireland.
So no point in rushing to the UK for a divorce.
 
Irish army invades.
Followed by thousands of Irish shoppers who buy up all the cheap TVs, VHS, petrol, booze and tobacco they can get their hands on.
Chemist shops are hit by Irish shoppers looking for birth control. birth control banned in the republic.
CB radios sell out fast too. illegal in the Republic of Ireland
Irish buy every new and second-hand car they can get their hand on a lot cheaper than the republic of Ireland.
Books shops sell out of playboy and other girly mags banned in the republic.
All that stuff is cheaper north of the border than the republic.
With so many civilian shoppers north of the border jamming the roads military operations on both sides have to cease operations.
Irish army gives up and joins the shoppers.
The whole thing descends into farce. ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)
Shops south of the border, car dealers etc go bankrupt.
Why were CB radios illegal in the Republic???
 
The UK wouldn't need any resources from anyother nation to handle Ireland at this or really any point. I mean at this stage the total naval capabilities are a handful of OPV's with 40mm crew mounts taken from the Corvette's, I'm fairly sure the RN could take them (and given officers of the NS were still taking operational training tours in the RN they would know everything (there's an amusing story of an Irish Navy Ensign on a tour on HMS Fearless being accosted by a more than slightly drunk Princess Margret telling him to "have a word" with Haughey to get Ireland into NATO, said officer is now the Chief of Staff). And as mentioned the AC capabilities are so minor that they don't even rate.

The Defence Forces knew full well how outclassed they would be, that Exercise was basically a "are you shitting" piece of paperwork. Also fyi the Free State hasn't existed since 1937.

I call it that sometimes out of habit, my apologies.

I do agree the British would not need any help, but they might accept it as a show of solidarity with their NATO allies, and to show the Irish just how fucked they were, as to be honest I can't imagine how panicked the Taoiseach would be to be told the British had got their American allies to divert a naval task force.

Really in the end it was a stupid idea, and as you mentioned Ireland's senior military leaders were trying to let their civil superiors know this while still following orders, giving it a name like ARMAGEDDON and going on and on about the various problems it would face, even raising the specter of British forces occupying parts of the Republic when a huge and inevitable counterattack threw the Republic's forces back out of Northern Ireland.

Not to mention, can you imagine the witch hunts after it was done? Catholics in Northern Ireland would face more and worse persecution than before.

CB radios sell out fast too. illegal in the Republic of Ireland.

Citizen Band radio sets were illegal in Ireland? Dare I ask why?
 
I call it that sometimes out of habit, my apologies.

I do agree the British would not need any help, but they might accept it as a show of solidarity with their NATO allies, and to show the Irish just how fucked they were, as to be honest I can't imagine how panicked the Taoiseach would be to be told the British had got their American allies to divert a naval task force.

Really in the end it was a stupid idea, and as you mentioned Ireland's senior military leaders were trying to let their civil superiors know this while still following orders, giving it a name like ARMAGEDDON and going on and on about the various problems it would face, even raising the specter of British forces occupying parts of the Republic when a huge and inevitable counterattack threw the Republic's forces back out of Northern Ireland.

Not to mention, can you imagine the witch hunts after it was done? Catholics in Northern Ireland would face more and worse persecution than before.



Citizen Band radio sets were illegal in Ireland? Dare I ask why?
Honestly, the UK would consider a US force as a double edged sword, sure they are NATO allies, however even then the Irish lobby is growing in the US political environment and there's been US support for Republican terrorists. Hell one of the "hopes" of the exercise would be to cause an international intervention to replace the UK forces on the ground in the North.

Catholics had already faced plenty of issues in the North by then (hell there's a clip on social media today from the BBC back in 1973 showing street after street of destroyed housing from the riots), it's more likely that it would be the Irish in GB that would be facing the worst of the abuse.
 
The joys of Rome Rule. If the Vatican doesn't like it, it's banned. If it embarrasses the Church it's covered up.
Farmers were a bigger problem for introducing divorce as they were afraid of Farms being split and becoming unviable.
Unlike the UK, most Irish farmers owned the land and farms were mostly small. So a divided farm was not going work and very little arable land was for sale as most farmers wanted to buy land and not to sell. Irish farmers were obsessed with owning and buying farmland.
Ireland had a high percentage of farmers.
Even today long after divorce came in and long after most people stopped going to mass, Ireland still has a very low divorce rate compared to the UK.
This is partly the cost of housing reducing the divorce rate.
Ireland in 1979 had one of the highest rates of private homeownership and not many social houses or homes for rent.
waiting lists for social housing were very long(many years) and those with large families got the first pick.
Divorce meant buying a new house.
 
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