If the Central Powers Win WWI, How Likely is WWII to Eventually Occur?

[CaliGuy]

This would be a disaster for the French and British colonies. Both will fight harder to keep them as it's the only way to maintain economic competitiveness with the Germans.

I think the Mideast would have been a tinderbox. Either the Germans or Turks will attempt to swallow the Arabian Peninsula and the UK and Americans will contest it. Potential for limited or major war right there.

The US might have a different perspective on isolationism as the narrative would be different. By 1918, German atrocities in Belgium and France were well known and the "making the world safe for democracy" wasnt a sentiment that Wilson entirely invented. With no exposure to the horrors of the Western Front, I can see the US getting more involved internationally. Subliminal guilt for letting down democracies? Any future atrocities by Germans retaining their hegemony over the continent will amplify this.

Further, Germany will be more aggressive on expanding its economic influence. Just because it dominates the continent doesnt mean it wont expand its markets to Asia, mideast or Latin America. It doesnt need colonies to do this. Wealthy Mexicans and Argentinians may prefer to buy an exported Mercedes to a Cadillac. So, economic confrontation with the US is almost assured. And the US has always shown a willingness to militarize when its economic interests are at stake.

France will do everything in its power to ingratiate itself with the US. Yes, they'll still be shellshocked but they will want to retain their national pride and identity. And the Brits, after they get over being mad for the US sitting on the sidelines, will aggressively recruit the US. Suddenly, you have an Atlantic alliance to challenge Euro Germany.

Interesting TL potential.

I completely agree with all of this; however, the crucial question is this--could the Anglo-American "alliance" (I am assuming that, despite its personal sympathies, France would be too weak to resist Germany in a meaningful sense) recruit Russia to be on their side?

Also, to elaborate on what I wrote above, would Russia be more interested in recapturing Riga and (if it hasn't already done so) Kiev than it would be in, say, expanding to the Indian Ocean (at Britain's expense and possibly with Germany's support, of course)?

Any thoughts on all of this?

 

[Dunning Kruger]

I completely agree with all of this; however, the crucial question is this--could the Anglo-American "alliance" (I am assuming that, despite its personal sympathies, France would be too weak to resist Germany in a meaningful sense) recruit Russia to be on their side?

Also, to elaborate on what I wrote above, would Russia be more interested in recapturing Riga and (if it hasn't already done so) Kiev than it would be in, say, expanding to the Indian Ocean (at Britain's expense and possibly with Germany's support, of course)?

Any thoughts on all of this?

Riga and Kiev in a heartbeat. I'm not sure what their ability to do so will be with a dominant Germany though. Germany's greatest perceived, and probably actual, threat is a resurgent Russia regardless of what the Americans do. Poland, Baltic States, Finland, and independent Ukraine all aid that. In effect, they do to Russia after WWI what the Soviets did to Germany after WWII - broken and contained.

I think the Soviets lose the civil war. Nobody wanted a communist country but in this TL the Germans are much better able to support an alternative than the OTL due to proximity and perceived threat.

 

[CaliGuy]

Riga and Kiev in a heartbeat. I'm not sure what their ability to do so will be with a dominant Germany though. Germany's greatest perceived, and probably actual, threat is a resurgent Russia regardless of what the Americans do. Poland, Baltic States, Finland, and independent Ukraine all aid that. In effect, they do to Russia after WWI what the Soviets did to Germany after WWII - broken and contained.

If Russia wants to recapture Ukraine and the Baltic states that badly, Britain and the U.S. might be unwilling to provide large amounts of aid--such as large-scale loans--to Russia after the end of World War I in this TL; after all, in this TL, Britain and the U.S. might perceive Russian imperialism to be just as bad as German imperialism was.

Thus, with Britain and the U.S. being unwilling to give large-scale loans to Russia and France being unable to do so (due to its economy becoming crippled by the reparations to Germany and by the loss of iron ore-rich Briey and Longwy), Russia is almost certainly going to be screwed for decades in this TL--indeed, probably until some point after Germany already successfully builds nuclear weapons, at which point it will certainly be too late for Russia to start a new war with Germany!

I think the Soviets lose the civil war. Nobody wanted a communist country but in this TL the Germans are much better able to support an alternative than the OTL due to proximity and perceived threat.

Completely agreed; indeed, as far as I know, Germany planned to overthrow the Bolsheviks if/after it won World War I.

 

[koa_dan]

They did build the second largest navy in the world with a budget half the size of the British, this time they're not making that mistake, not after the blockade.


Ship components get transported over land all the time, the Austrian navy guns were made near Prag, it doesnt get any more inland than that.




The same can be said about Germany - it was what, the second largest merchant marine before the war? Plenty of sailors there, and as before, the blockade changes priorities.


There's no anti German coalition.
-AH is on the German side
-The Balkans is on the German side because they hate each other more
-Finland/Baltics/Poland/Ukraine are on the German side because they just received fresh German Kings and absolutely fear Russia
-Scandinavia does not care
-Iberia does not care
-Italy changes to the winning camp, they always do that
-Turkey/Ottomans is on the German side because they fear the Greeks/Russians/UK/Persians
-Russia is a mess, it lots its agriculture and industry and is in a brutal civil war and all of its neighbors hate it, in fact there's a good chance that the Germans and Allies will collaborate to strangle the Soviet Union in its crib in which case Russia ends up with a German monarch
-France is fucked, utterly fucked, unlike Russia they dont have distance between them and Germany, with the second invasion of Germany in living memory they will not go easy on it, it will be JC 1067 all the way, deconstruction of heavy industry, rationing of food, mandatory labor for civilians in the damaged regions, abolishing of the old money, seizing of all intellectual property etc
-USA does not hold grudges on anything which happened on the continent, in fact you might get worse relations with the UK for getting them into the war and then defaulting on all the loans they gave them
-China has bigger fish to fry (Japan)
-Japan has bigger fish to fry (China)

The anti German coalition will be more or less just the British Empire... which will be very unruly once the English start to loot it for money to pay off the Americans for a war the English got them into.


IMO Britain has two choices during the peace negotiontions:
-Pay some reparations and give back the colonies to keep the Germans from establishing bases at the English Channel
-Keep the colonies and end up with the German fleet in shooting distance of the English coast
No matter what choice they're in big trouble because they owe the Americans a whole lot of money, money they used to keep the Russians and French in the war, those two are now obviously not going to pay up, they needed the German reparations but they too are not coming. They'll try to get that money somehow and they'd turn to the Empire, which really will not like that, you'd have uprisings and secessionism everywhere.

And on top of that without a Washington naval treaty, which will not happen here as it was a mutual agreement between the winning powers, you're going to see Yamato style battleships by 1930 or so which makes all the pre war and during the war build battleships obsolete, now with the UK in monetary trouble and with Germany receiving extra money from reparations and with no restrictions on it... it's not looking good for the Royal Navy. It needs more than just parity with Germany, the Royal Navy also has to be present in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific should the Japanese get any funny ideas.

A question, please: I know the US never had a thing for colonization in OTL but what would they do to the Caribbean and Panama in particular if Germany won? I read that there was tension between the US and Germany regarding Hispaniola before the war. Is it possible that the US might occupy Panama, Cuba and Hispaniola in fear of the Imperial German Navy in this TL?

 

[anotherlurker]

A question, please: I know the US never had a thing for colonization in OTL but what would they do to the Caribbean and Panama in particular if Germany won? I read that there was tension between the US and Germany regarding Hispaniola before the war. Is it possible that the US might occupy Panama, Cuba and Hispaniola in fear of the Imperial German Navy in this TL?

They're pretty much occupied by the USA already, Panama since it was constructed was anything but a free nation, Cuba since the war with Spain was firmly under US influence. Hispaniola though is more or less independent, i havent read anything about tensions there, though there was some head butting over Venezuelas debt to Germany in the early 1900s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_crisis_of_1902–03

 

[koa_dan]

They're pretty much occupied by the USA already, Panama since it was constructed was anything but a free nation, Cuba since the war with Spain was firmly under US influence. Hispaniola though is more or less independent, i havent read anything about tensions there, though there was some head butting over Venezuelas debt to Germany in the early 1900s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_crisis_of_1902–03

I read that piece here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_Haiti