If the Central Powers Win WWI, How Likely is WWII to Eventually Occur?

Here's some other problems for a potential WW2.

-Victorious Germany keeps building aircraft and ships
A large, unrestrained and capable German navy is going to be a nightmare for the British, where would they get the money from to keep up with the Kaisers buildup powered by French and Soviet reparation with all of Central Europes industry doing their part in its construction?
-Victorious Germany does not disband its army
There's no stop to research and production of modern weapons, no stop of training and the experienced officers are not sent home.
-Victorious Germany keeps its academics
This time it's Germany which has the code breakers and nuclear scientists.

The Germans will be distracted with some upset Poles and Ukrainians in the east and the total mess that is the Balkans. France could take advantage of that and rearm.
Any distractions will not be long enough to enable anything like that. Besides people keep ignoring that Poland and Ukraine absolutely fear Russia and would do anything to keep them away, like staying on Germanys good sides.
 
The Germans will be distracted with some upset Poles and Ukrainians in the east and the total mess that is the Balkans. France could take advantage of that and rearm.

If Germany can defeat a coalition of 3 great powers it isn't going to be worried much by some restive Poles etc, divide and rule and ruthless repression of dissidents is nothing compared to total war against the Triple Entente.
 
Austria Hungary is still going to shatter and the Ottoman empire is in trouble there's no keeping them together without a lot of German blood and treasure.
 
Ultimately I think that the post-war period is Germany's to lose. They could fuck it up by becoming overconfident after their victory: establishing a military-imperial dictatorship that alienates their liberal/socialist citizens, seeking to maintain a puppet Tsar in Russia with zero support from the Russian public which will tie down a considerable part of the German military, perhaps alienating the Ottomans by disregarding their claims to Baku and expecting them to fall in line as a junior partner, antagonizing the Americans with interference in Latin America.

Even then, it'll be an uphill battle for the "allies".
 
Austria Hungary is still going to shatter and the Ottoman empire is in trouble there's no keeping them together without a lot of German blood and treasure.

The Turks were able to crush their Greek and Armenian minorities without much sweat, so they really only have the Arabs to worry about - and the Arabs are split into so many factions that the Turks can probably handle them.

And if A/H splits, that probably just changes an alliance of Germany with Austria-cum-Hungary into one of Germany-cum-Austria with Hungary. The latter configuration would not necessarily be any weaker than the former.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
And if A/H splits, that probably just changes an alliance of Germany with Austria-cum-Hungary into one of Germany-cum-Austria with Hungary. The latter configuration would not necessarily be any weaker than the former.
Agreed--especially if Germany is able to prevent the Russians from (permanently) reacquiring Ukraine.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Ultimately I think that the post-war period is Germany's to lose. They could fuck it up by becoming overconfident after their victory: establishing a military-imperial dictatorship that alienates their liberal/socialist citizens, seeking to maintain a puppet Tsar in Russia with zero support from the Russian public which will tie down a considerable part of the German military, perhaps alienating the Ottomans by disregarding their claims to Baku and expecting them to fall in line as a junior partner, antagonizing the Americans with interference in Latin America.

Even then, it'll be an uphill battle for the "allies".
Frankly, I think that having a puppet Tsar in Russia would be an overreach on Germany's part; indeed, Germany's best bet might be to ensure that the Russians don't re-establish a permanent hold on Ukraine after Germany is finished dealing with the mess in Austria-Hungary but otherwise allow the various factions in Russia to fight it out among themselves.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
If Germany can defeat a coalition of 3 great powers it isn't going to be worried much by some restive Poles etc, divide and rule and ruthless repression of dissidents is nothing compared to total war against the Triple Entente.
Completely agreed; after all, in this scenario, Germany will have proven and shown its "Uber Alles" credentials! ;)
 
A constant German war aim was for a MittelEuropa customs union, not because it would be totally awesome for the German economy but because it would allow Germany to exercise influence (control) over its members. If AH breaks up then Germany can just add the newly minted countries into the ME customs union as a condition of recognition of their independence, the new countries would most likely be sorting themselves out and be glad for the recognition.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
A constant German war aim was for a MittelEuropa customs union, not because it would be totally awesome for the German economy but because it would allow Germany to exercise influence (control) over its members. If AH breaks up then Germany can just add the newly minted countries into the ME customs union as a condition of recognition of their independence, the new countries would most likely be sorting themselves out and be glad for the recognition.
Agreed; indeed, one could even argue that a collapse of Austria-Hungary would result in Germany having more--rather than less--influence in Eastern Europe since none of Austria-Hungary's successor states would even be able to remotely stand up to Germany to the same extent that Austria-Hungary could!
 
Expanding on my previous point: I think it's very likely that anti-German resistance in continental Europe will have a predominantly socialist character:
-They'll certainly back white/Tsarist armies in Russia, and whether or not they're an outright puppet regime they'll certainly be playing second fiddle to Berlin- not only because of their dependence on German military support, but because they'll be a net importer of oil, industrial products and possibly agricultural goods.
-If a military-imperial dictatorship is established in Germany, I'd expect it to have less popular support then the OTL Third Reich did(given it's explicitly elitist rather then populist nature). Socialist discontent within could easily be a bigger problem for the Second Reich then it was for the Third.
-If we see similar-to-OTL unrest/civil wars in Spain/Greece/Italy, I'd expect full German support for the fascist takeovers(although I doubt we'd perceive much difference between conservative authoritarianism and "fascism" in TTL, whether in rhetoric or practice- there's no Nazi Germany after all, and Mussolini is technically ruling on the Italian king's behalf).
-Now, France. It's an open question how harshly the victorious Germans crack down on France, but we can expect there economy to be in the crapper IMO. Under normal conditions this would tend to produce a power struggle between socialists and reactionary nationalists, but I think it's likely that there'll be a symbiosis between them in these circumstances- after all, the red peril looms far less menacing in TTL what with the Germans having crushed it, the great fear for the French will likely be the establishment of a full-puppet regime in Paris under the premise of suppressing French socialists. I'd expect the division in France to be between accommodationists who believe that defying Germany is futile(along with hard-rightists who believe the German-imposed European order is a positive thing) OTOH, and on the other the socialist-nationalist "resisters" who believe that France should resist Germany and aid socialist/nationalist resistance throughout the rest of Europe.
-All of these puppetized/finlandized/aligned European states are likely to be drawn in to a Germany-led trade organization. Coupled with their formal or informal alliance against socialist insurrections, and we're basically looking at an EU-if-it-was-built-by-reactionaries.

However, outside of Europe I'd expect Germany's natural allignment is going to be towards Asian nationalist/anti-colonialist movements. Sponsoring the Indian independence movement is an obvious move, as is nationalist opposition to British control of the Suez canal in Egypt and oil in Iran. As long as they remain aligned with the Ottomans, they may try to exploit the Ottomans Caliphal legitimacy towards these ends. British dominance over the sea routes means little here- they can project power overland in to West Asia through Anatolia and Russia, especially once they've developed the planned Ottoman railways. East Asia is big question mark for me in this scenario... the Germans could cultivate a relationship with either the KMT or Japan, I can see a persuasive argument in favour of their taking either path.

The upshot of all this rambling: in Europe you have Britain and maybe America doing what they can to upset German dominance by sponsoring nationalist/socialist uprisings and perhaps intervening if a promising opportunity seems to have come along, whilst in Asia you'll have Germany doing what they can to sponsor nationalist uprisings against British imperialism(and perhaps the Chinese against Japan), and intervening directly if it seems like the British position has been weakened enough that it'll collapse if pushed.

So it's really a question of whose imperial order breaks down sooner in the face of nationalist resistance.

I'm rather liking the notion of an alliance between the British, Americans and Japanese, while Germany and Friends(tm) turfs them out of continental Eurasia- the B,A&J are overwhelmingly dominant on the seas, but Germany's control of the Eurasian rail network and the sheer size of the Chinese and Indian populations prevents them from maintaining any major footholds on the mainland. They'll be limited to the Malay Archipelago, most of Subsaharan Africa and the New world colonies as their sphere of influence. Perhaps also the Arabian peninsula, backing the Sauds/Hashemites against Ottoman incursion?
 
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A constant German war aim was for a MittelEuropa customs union, not because it would be totally awesome for the German economy but because it would allow Germany to exercise influence (control) over its members. If AH breaks up then Germany can just add the newly minted countries into the ME customs union as a condition of recognition of their independence, the new countries would most likely be sorting themselves out and be glad for the recognition.
They could also install pro-German governments in those newly minted countries.The real challenge is not to be a dick about it, a rather difficult challenge for Kaiser Willhelm the stupid and the German government of the time.
 
As per my previous scenario, a quick and shitty map. Grey is German-aligned, Pink is alliance alligned. A smudge means probable heavy resistance. The question mark smudges in Latin America speak for themselves.

Yes, it's disgraceful.

quick-and-shitty-png.307745
 
Austria Hungary is still going to shatter and the Ottoman empire is in trouble there's no keeping them together without a lot of German blood and treasure.
A-H: It has proven to be more resilient than imperial Russia - it stayed in the war until the end after all, Russia even after it shatterd managed to rebound into a superpower later. Sure A-H doesnt have the potential to be a superpower, too few people and too small, but it too can rebound to stability, advance in technical fields, prosper and it can stay a major European nation.

Ottomans: The instability is highly overrated, it depended on outside support to keep going, just look at what happened to the Arab rebels after France and UK cut the help and turned on them - they became colonies.
 
They could also install pro-German governments in those newly minted countries.The real challenge is not to be a dick about it, a rather difficult challenge for Kaiser Willhelm the stupid and the German government of the time.

The German government was in for reform after the war, already by easter 1917 the kaiser had announced the end of 3 class suffrage in Prussia for after the war. That will make it easier to win the peace.
 
-Victorious Germany keeps building aircraft and ships
A large, unrestrained and capable German navy is going to be a nightmare for the British, where would they get the money from to keep up with the Kaisers buildup powered by French and Soviet reparation with all of Central Europes industry doing their part in its construction?

Can the Germans compete at sea with the United Kingdom? I personally doubt it. Most British industrial centres are within a reasonable range of the coast, for obvious reasons. To my knowledge, the Rhine would not be able to accommodate a naval industry in the Ruhr - especially if Belgium was left free in exchange for the return of German colonies. That's not to say you cannot build ships inland, but it does make the logistics of the industry rather more complex.

In a similar vein, Britain's island status means that there was (and is) a disproportionately high percentage of the population engaged in maritime activities and employment. This can easily be translated into a military sailor base. Germany, while it has a larger population, has a much shorter coastline and depends far less on maritime industries to survive.

And a German naval buildup after the war assumes they have no desire for detente with the British, which will simply drive London towards supporting a new anti-German coalition.

That said, should Germany choose that path, Britain will have to pull out all the stops to keep ahead. A continuation of the Anglo-Japanese alliance, to maintain a global lead, could occur, especially if Russia comes totally under the dominance of Germany.
 
Can the Germans compete at sea with the United Kingdom? I personally doubt it.
They did build the second largest navy in the world with a budget half the size of the British, this time they're not making that mistake, not after the blockade.

Most British industrial centres are within a reasonable range of the coast, for obvious reasons. To my knowledge, the Rhine would not be able to accommodate a naval industry in the Ruhr - especially if Belgium was left free in exchange for the return of German colonies. That's not to say you cannot build ships inland, but it does make the logistics of the industry rather more complex.
Ship components get transported over land all the time, the Austrian navy guns were made near Prag, it doesnt get any more inland than that.


In a similar vein, Britain's island status means that there was (and is) a disproportionately high percentage of the population engaged in maritime activities and employment. This can easily be translated into a military sailor base. Germany, while it has a larger population, has a much shorter coastline and depends far less on maritime industries to survive.
The same can be said about Germany - it was what, the second largest merchant marine before the war? Plenty of sailors there, and as before, the blockade changes priorities.

And a German naval buildup after the war assumes they have no desire for detente with the British, which will simply drive London towards supporting a new anti-German coalition.
There's no anti German coalition.
-AH is on the German side
-The Balkans is on the German side because they hate each other more
-Finland/Baltics/Poland/Ukraine are on the German side because they just received fresh German Kings and absolutely fear Russia
-Scandinavia does not care
-Iberia does not care
-Italy changes to the winning camp, they always do that
-Turkey/Ottomans is on the German side because they fear the Greeks/Russians/UK/Persians
-Russia is a mess, it lots its agriculture and industry and is in a brutal civil war and all of its neighbors hate it, in fact there's a good chance that the Germans and Allies will collaborate to strangle the Soviet Union in its crib in which case Russia ends up with a German monarch
-France is fucked, utterly fucked, unlike Russia they dont have distance between them and Germany, with the second invasion of Germany in living memory they will not go easy on it, it will be JC 1067 all the way, deconstruction of heavy industry, rationing of food, mandatory labor for civilians in the damaged regions, abolishing of the old money, seizing of all intellectual property etc
-USA does not hold grudges on anything which happened on the continent, in fact you might get worse relations with the UK for getting them into the war and then defaulting on all the loans they gave them
-China has bigger fish to fry (Japan)
-Japan has bigger fish to fry (China)

The anti German coalition will be more or less just the British Empire... which will be very unruly once the English start to loot it for money to pay off the Americans for a war the English got them into.

That said, should Germany choose that path, Britain will have to pull out all the stops to keep ahead. A continuation of the Anglo-Japanese alliance, to maintain a global lead, could occur, especially if Russia comes totally under the dominance of Germany.
IMO Britain has two choices during the peace negotiontions:
-Pay some reparations and give back the colonies to keep the Germans from establishing bases at the English Channel
-Keep the colonies and end up with the German fleet in shooting distance of the English coast
No matter what choice they're in big trouble because they owe the Americans a whole lot of money, money they used to keep the Russians and French in the war, those two are now obviously not going to pay up, they needed the German reparations but they too are not coming. They'll try to get that money somehow and they'd turn to the Empire, which really will not like that, you'd have uprisings and secessionism everywhere.

And on top of that without a Washington naval treaty, which will not happen here as it was a mutual agreement between the winning powers, you're going to see Yamato style battleships by 1930 or so which makes all the pre war and during the war build battleships obsolete, now with the UK in monetary trouble and with Germany receiving extra money from reparations and with no restrictions on it... it's not looking good for the Royal Navy. It needs more than just parity with Germany, the Royal Navy also has to be present in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific should the Japanese get any funny ideas.
 
it's not looking good for the Royal Navy. It needs more than just parity with Germany, the Royal Navy also has to be present in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific should the Japanese get any funny ideas.

The equation is horrific for the RN. In order to win they need numerical superiority at the time of battle which can occur at any time, so if Germany builds 5 BBs Britain has to build 9 or 10, to ensure that with 1 or 2 in refit/repair/redeployment they can engage the 5 German BBs with 7 or so of their own.
 
The equation is horrific for the RN. In order to win they need numerical superiority at the time of battle which can occur at any time, so if Germany builds 5 BBs Britain has to build 9 or 10, to ensure that with 1 or 2 in refit/repair/redeployment they can engage the 5 German BBs with 7 or so of their own.
Not just that - in case of the German navy getting stationed in Channel ports the Germans could be invading England before Royal Navy even gets to react - sea mammal wearing pickelhaube.

And i havent even touched submarines - with no restrictions you can easily have late 30s subs in mid 20s. That's a whole lot of pain for an island nation.
 
This would be a disaster for the French and British colonies. Both will fight harder to keep them as it's the only way to maintain economic competitiveness with the Germans.

I think the Mideast would have been a tinderbox. Either the Germans or Turks will attempt to swallow the Arabian Peninsula and the UK and Americans will contest it. Potential for limited or major war right there.

The US might have a different perspective on isolationism as the narrative would be different. By 1918, German atrocities in Belgium and France were well known and the "making the world safe for democracy" wasnt a sentiment that Wilson entirely invented. With no exposure to the horrors of the Western Front, I can see the US getting more involved internationally. Subliminal guilt for letting down democracies? Any future atrocities by Germans retaining their hegemony over the continent will amplify this.

Further, Germany will be more aggressive on expanding its economic influence. Just because it dominates the continent doesnt mean it wont expand its markets to Asia, mideast or Latin America. It doesnt need colonies to do this. Wealthy Mexicans and Argentinians may prefer to buy an exported Mercedes to a Cadillac. So, economic confrontation with the US is almost assured. And the US has always shown a willingness to militarize when its economic interests are at stake.

France will do everything in its power to ingratiate itself with the US. Yes, they'll still be shellshocked but they will want to retain their national pride and identity. And the Brits, after they get over being mad for the US sitting on the sidelines, will aggressively recruit the US. Suddenly, you have an Atlantic alliance to challenge Euro Germany.

Interesting TL potential.
 
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