If the American Civil War is averted, will some states ban slavery on their own?

[Analytical Engine]

Assume the ACW is averted - maybe South Carolina gets cold feet, or something.

Anyway, regardless of the reason, would any existing slave states abolish slavery before congress decides "time, gentlemen, please"?

If so, which ones are most likely?

 

[cloistered scholar]

Delaware came close in 1860, if I recall correctly. Though even back then, Dover accounted for most of Delaware population. The lower counties had some slaves, but Dover didn't.

Honestly don't think any other state was as close as them.

 

[The Tai-Pan]

Assume the ACW is averted - maybe South Carolina gets cold feet, or something.

Anyway, regardless of the reason, would any existing slave states abolish slavery before congress decides "time, gentlemen, please"?

If so, which ones are most likely?

Probably not, due to the immense and charged social pressure brought into the subject. The debate was not a rational, economic one but a cultural, political one.

 

[PGSBHurricane]

I would give it up to 30 years to see if anything happens. What could push them along to do so on their own would be the abolition of slavery in Puerto Rico, Cuba, and Brazil in the 1870s and 1880s. Of course this is more likely in the Upper South. In the Deep South you might have to wait until the Congo Affair in 1903-1908 to elicit such a reaction.

 

[Arafeel]

In otl the bordere south was seeing a drainage of slaves to the deep south, so it will start with those states reaching a slave pop so low that they will abolish slavery to be able to attract immigrant labour instead (you cant have both because of racisem ). That means an even blacker deep south, but when the bordere states go its just a question of time as well as mechanisation. Some of the southern militancy might go away when they realise that there is enough land and soil in the slave areas already, but the question is when this happens. First would be delaware and maryland, then probably Virginia and Kentucky. It will deepend on the market for cotton, bu so long as it high enough the labour shortage will pull slaves from non cotton areas, 5-15 year is not unreasonable for the sates named.

 

[Mikestone8]

n otl the bordere south was seeing a drainage of slaves to the deep south, so it will start with those states reaching a slave pop so low that they will abolish slavery

Why, when they are turning a fat profit by exporting slaves?

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

Delaware is the obvious choice.

When it comes to the other slave states, Missouri is most likely the next one. St. Louis was getting filled more and more by immigrants from Europe every year and the state government will become more anti-slavery very rapidly.

Virginia and Maryland could gradually phase it out over time.

 

[PGSBHurricane]

Delaware is the obvious choice.

When it comes to the other slave states, Missouri is most likely the next one. St. Louis was getting filled more and more by immigrants from Europe every year and the state government will become more anti-slavery very rapidly.

Virginia and Maryland could gradually phase it out over time.

What about other Upper South states like Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Tennessee?