I think McCain (or someone similar) narrowly defeats Gore in 2004, despite the fact that I think Gore would handle 9/11 (if it happens with Gore in the WH), better than Bush. 12 years of Democratic rule, a relentless right wing attack machine against Gore, and a so so recovery from the Dot Com Bust make Gore a one termer. He'd basically be remembered as a Democratic version of HW Bush. 2008 would depend on when a financial crisis hits. If it happens on schedule, the Democrats win, if it's delayed past the fall of 2008, President McCain defeats Democratic nominee (Hillary if the Dems think they have a chance, Lieberman if they need a Mondale or Dole to take one for the team). 2010 and 2012 are Democratic sweeps.