If Britain wins the ARW, what happens to domestic British politics?

[Pittite]

Most discussions of Britain winning the American Revolutionary War tend to focus on the trajectory of the British Empire or how international politics would be affected. But perhaps just as interesting is the impact a British victory would have on politics in the Home Islands.

So what would the impact of this be? Would Lord North's government survive? If he continues as Prime Minister, presumably he would resign around 1786 (at which point he exited frontline politics IOTL due to blindness), so who would succeed him? What happens to the Whigs? Do they reclaim power? If so, under who?

(Just to provide context on how this victory is achieved - the Royal Navy wins the Battle of the Chesapeake and vital reinforcements are provided to Cornwallis. Cornwallis the breaks the siege of Yorktown and defeats George Washington in open battle, forcing the damaged Franco-American army to retreat north. In the following months, Cornwallis consolidates his position in the South and advances further, while British forces also salvage their position in New England and New York. France, Spain and the Dutch Republic exit the war one by one as funding the Americans becomes more and more costly with little gains. By 1783, with all international backing at an end and facing defeat on all fronts, the United States is forced to sue for peace.)

 

[Historyman 14]

Chesapeake and Yorktown in 1781 is too late to win the Revolution for the British. By this time, the war had proven extremely costly to and unpopular with the citizens of Britain. They simply had no more stomach for war. Yorktown was just the straw that broke the camel's back. At the same time, I doubt the Freach, Spanish, and Dutch would just leave. If anything they double down as would the Patriots as they have become professionals. (And London would care far more fighting in Europe and in the Caribbean then in the Colonies.)

By 1781, the British has lost Newport(Rhode Island) and most of Long Island, as well as British control over the Carolinas and Georgia being eroded.

However, this can give London a stronger hand at the table. (And more to woo America to come over to their side and not France.)

 

[Skallagrim]

Greater confidence in what one might call the "conservative" position, combined with greater worry about undesired sentiments. Political dissenters will be viewed with much greater wariness, and the risk of "radicalism" (both at home and in the colonies) will be seen as the most pertinent danger of the day (even before the time of the OTL French Revolution and irs escalation).

Essentially, I'd vaguely expect a milder version of the post-Napoleonic reactionary phase throughout Europe. A more-conservative-than-OTL political climate, with an inflexible and criminalising attitude towards radicalism. I'd expect the results to be similar, too: an eventual complete reversal when the pressure has been built up too much.

 

[Socrates]

Lord North's government would win huge plaudits, not so much for defeating the Americans but for holding off the Dutch, French and Spanish at the same time. His government could last another decade. British exceptionalism would go through the roof, which would likely cause overconfidence leading to a fall in a latter war. It would also validate the Tory "blue water" policy vs the Whig preference to divert continental powers from naval buildup by subsidising European allies and/or deploying troops on the mainland.

However, longer term, the economic changes of the UK, moving social norms and the questions of liberty raised by the war are still moving the country in a Whigghish direction. Old style North conservatism is still on the way out. This will only be accelerated if the colonists get representation in parliament at some point.

 

[Historyman 14]

Lord North's government would win huge plaudits, not so much for defeating the Americans but for holding off the Dutch, French and Spanish at the same time. His government could last another decade. British exceptionalism would go through the roof, which would likely cause overconfidence leading to a fall in a latter war. It would also validate the Tory "blue water" policy vs the Whig preference to divert continental powers from naval buildup by subsidising European allies and/or deploying troops on the mainland.

However, longer term, the economic changes of the UK, moving social norms and the questions of liberty raised by the war are still moving the country in a Whigghish direction. Old style North conservatism is still on the way out. This will only be accelerated if the colonists get representation in parliament at some point.

They would have to give the 13 Colonies representation in parliament. The longer the Revolution, the more London would be force to give them representation and self-governance. (3 to four Dominions). If you don't, or even if they rise taxes again, that there will be a second ARW. The same goes for highly costly it was, and all that, and it may be finances alone that domes Lord North and the Troy.

Best case, you lead to a Federal Parliamentary System/A loose federation with a common foreign policy and strategic plan.

The mostyl likely case however, is the British will remain unstable even after 'victory' and become stuck in the 'American quagmire' for a decade or two before they finally cut loose and let them go.

 

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

They would have to give the 13 Colonies representation in parliament.

The road to the British quagmire?

 

[Fabius Maximus]

Chesapeake and Yorktown in 1781 is too late to win the Revolution for the British. By this time, the war had proven extremely costly to and unpopular with the citizens of Britain. They simply had no more stomach for war. Yorktown was just the straw that broke the camel's back. At the same time, I doubt the Freach, Spanish, and Dutch would just leave. If anything they double down as would the Patriots as they have become professionals. (And London would care far more fighting in Europe and in the Caribbean then in the Colonies.)

The rebels were basically bankrupt by 1781. If the British manage to keep the war going for another couple of years, there's a good chance they'll be forced to the negotiating table due to simple financial exhaustion.

 

[Historyman 14]

The rebels were basically bankrupt by 1781. If the British manage to keep the war going for another couple of years, there's a good chance they'll be forced to the negotiating table due to simple financial exhaustion.

I doubt the British people would allow the war to carry on for a few more years longer. At best, an victory at Yorktown would give London more to use at the peace table. (Which OLT, they did a lot to try and woo America to its side and away from France.)

 

[Socrates]

The road to the British quagmire?

The problem with this is that it assumes America is the only part of the Empire outside the home islands. In reality, it is just as likely that Britain goes on to conquer India, Australia and much of Africa. In that case London is the more sensible capital than Philadelphia.

 

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

The problem with this is that it assumes America is the only part of the Empire outside the home islands. In reality, it is just as likely that Britain goes on to conquer India, Australia and much of Africa. In that case London is the more sensible capital than Philadelphia.

It assumes that America would be the biggest territory with representation. In reality, that was certainly more likely than India and Africa getting any parliamentarian representation.

 

[Socrates]

It assumes that America would be the biggest territory with representation. In reality, that was certainly more likely than India and Africa getting any parliamentarian representation.

For a start, America wouldn't be a single territory. Secondly, in a world where America gets representation, I can certainly see the whites in India and the equivalents to South Africa, Kenya and Rhodesia getting representation. Thirdly, representation isn't even my point - everyone would accept that London is a better central place to give out orders to all territories.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

Lots of federations seem to prefer their capital to be somewhere away from the main centre of population, for fear that the area where it's located becomes too dominant over the other regions -- think DC, Canberra, Brasilia, etc. So I could see the British Empire remaining headquartered in London because the other dominions fear that moving the capital to Philadelphia (or New York, or wherever) would end up with them all becoming provinces of America.

If the capital does move to America, I expect London would be like the city of Rome in the late Roman Empire. It would be the symbolic and ceremonial capital, and some important ceremonies (coronations etc.) would take there, but the king and government spend most of their time elsewhere.

Alternatively you could have a situation like that in Tokugawa Japan, with England being Kyoto (where the monarch resides) and America being Edo (where the actual government is).