Hungary occupies Voivodina in 1999

[Fehérvári]

During the Nato bombings of Yugoslavia, Hungary, as a new member of Nato, was torn between staying loyal to its new allies and safeguarding the Hungarian minority in Voivodina. Ultimately, the Hungarians endorsed to support Nato in its bombings.

What if the Hungarian leadership chose another approach in the means of occupying Vojvodina instead? What could be the implications and consequences of such action? Could Vojvodina get separated from Yugoslavia like Kosovo? Is a "cantonised" independent Vojvodina possible? What would happen to Yugoslavia with both Vojvodina and Kosovo being under alien occupation?

For the sake of the sceniario, the Hungarians' action is both aknowledged by the Nato and is successfully executed.

 

[Ramontxo]

At the time given the reluctance of the Clinton administration to deploy ground troops I wondered why that option wasn't used. Thought I suspect that there was a (very) logical dread of opening another can of worms in the Balkans

 

[Lalli]

Nato and EU might be quite worried that Hungary might try open Trianon. If it begin such thing it might be accused being expansionist and militaristic. Not sure what Nato would do but door of EU woul.d be closed for the country.

 

[Fehérvári]

At the time given the reluctance of the Clinton administration to deploy ground troops I wondered why that option wasn't used. Thought I suspect that there was a (very) logical dread of opening another can of worms in the Balkans

I don't know much about the inner workings and worries of the Clinton administration to be honest, but given, that it's not the US itself conveying the ground operations and Hungary not being involved in the stability of Bosnia, I think it might work out somehow.

Nato and EU might be quite worried that Hungary might try open Trianon. If it begin such thing it might be accused being expansionist and militaristic. Not sure what Nato would do but door of EU woul.d be closed for the country.

The sceniario assumes the support of the Nato, while the EU might be a bit worried about the Hungarian actions, but would it really mean Hungary not getting accepted? Annexing Vojvodina is clearly out of question, noone would support that, but a similar treatment to Kosovo would really cause such reaction?

 

[Fehérvári]

I guess this is a too recent or too limited sceniario to pique people's interest.

Moving on

 

[Warer]

Well i know what everybody would be complaining about here.(From Vojvodina,In Vojvodina)

 

[rfmcdonald]

It is difficult to imagine how you would create a scenario meriting a NATO intervention on Vojvodina on behalf of Hungarians there. While the Magyars of north Vojvodina do form a coherent pocket close to the Hungarian border, and did suffer discrimination in the Milosevic era, they were simply not seen as a threat meriting military attack by Serbian ultranationalists. This may be a factor of their declining numbers, through assimilation and emigration; had Vojvodina Magyar populations grown at the rate of Bosnian Muslims, never mind Kosovar Albanians, they might indeed have been seen as a worthwhile target.

 

[Fehérvári]

It is difficult to imagine how you would create a scenario meriting a NATO intervention on Vojvodina on behalf of Hungarians there. While the Magyars of north Vojvodina do form a coherent pocket close to the Hungarian border, and did suffer discrimination in the Milosevic era, they were simply not seen as a threat meriting military attack by Serbian ultranationalists. This may be a factor of their declining numbers, through assimilation and emigration; had Vojvodina Magyar populations grown at the rate of Bosnian Muslims, never mind Kosovar Albanians, they might indeed have been seen as a worthwhile target.

Well, that main idea was rather the saving of the area from the Nato bombings, not the saving of the Hungarians from the Serb ultra-nationalists.

 

[rfmcdonald]

Well, that main idea was rather the saving of the area from the Nato bombings, not the saving of the Hungarians from the Serb ultra-nationalists.

Yeah, I just do not see that happening unless there was some state collapse in Hungary. Even then, I would imagine the neighbours of Hungary would look askance on Hungary occupying ex-Hungarian territory.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

A Hungarian occupation of Vojvodina results in:
- Hungary getting isolated in the world except by Croatia, Bosnia and Albania
- Yugoslavia is pretty much done fore. They can't safe either Bosnia or Croatia while focussing on the Hungarians.
- Possibly no Republika Srpska as Alija Izetbegovic has more confidence
- Hungary can go as far as the Danube river near Novi Sad. Either due to pressure by Nato or as Yugoslavian National Army has better defenses there
- Kosovo conflict starts earlier

Before all this can happen, it really depends on the United States. If Clinton allows Hungary to tear down the Serbs then there is a risk getting out of hand of the US. The Serbs go more paranoid as the risks of losing land again, which means a bloody Kosovo War. If the United States pressures Hungary to stay away from Vojvodina then it ends there. No involvement.

Vojvodina is to Hungarians what Kosovo is to Albania. Chance of unification is zero. Vojvodina will be without the part north of Belgrade between the Sava and Danube river. Romania may be more hostile to Hungary, as is Slovakia.

 

[Fehérvári]

Yeah, I just do not see that happening unless there was some state collapse in Hungary. Even then, I would imagine the neighbours of Hungary would look askance on Hungary occupying ex-Hungarian territory.

State collapse? What do you mean exactly? On the other note, yeah, Hungarian neighbours might view such action with suspicion, that's very likely. Given, that Hungary does nothing warning afterwards though, would such worries last?

- Hungary getting isolated in the world except by Croatia, Bosnia and Albania

The Hungarian action is (silently) supported by the Nato in the proposed sceniario though.

- Yugoslavia is pretty much done fore. They can't safe either Bosnia or Croatia while focussing on the Hungarians.

- Possibly no Republika Srpska as Alija Izetbegovic has more confidence

By this time, the war in Bosnia and Croatia is long over though.

- Hungary can go as far as the Danube river near Novi Sad. Either due to pressure by Nato or as Yugoslavian National Army has better defenses there

The Hungarian success in occupying entire Voivodina is the base of the thread. It might be a very unlikely sceniario to say the least, but that's how it is. Nato is a supportive factor.

- Kosovo conflict starts earlier

The Kosovo conflict has already began, hence the Nato bombings.

Vojvodina is to Hungarians what Kosovo is to Albania. Chance of unification is zero. Vojvodina will be without the part north of Belgrade between the Sava and Danube river. Romania may be more hostile to Hungary, as is Slovakia.

Annexation is not a goal. It's not possible anyway, the Serbs are the majority in the area. The Hungarian goal is the detachment of a diverse and developed area from a crumbling and increasingly nationalistic Yugoslavia(Serbia), and the establishment of a "Swiss-inspired" multiethnic country there. Given, that Vojvodina was already a separate region even within Yugoslavia, I believe, that such action could be accepted by the majority of the international community. The very same thing as Kosovo OTL.

The hostility from Slovakia and Romania might be a problem, but it would be in their interest to downplay that, if they want to get into the Nato.



The EU expansion might be interesting though. I often hear, that Romania and Bulgaria were let in the Union early to prevent the spread of Russian influence in the region. Couldn't the same be applied to Hungary as counterargument for the potential delay to their entrance into the EU? Could Hungary join the EU at the same time with the new state of Vojvodina?


My ultimate goal in the thread would be to get Vojvodina into the EU max. as late as Croatia.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

State collapse? What do you mean exactly? On the other note, yeah, Hungarian neighbours might view such action with suspicion, that's very likely. Given, that Hungary does nothing warning afterwards though, would such worries last?

The Hungarian action is (silently) supported by the Nato in the proposed sceniario though.


By this time, the war in Bosnia and Croatia is long over though.

The Hungarian success in occupying entire Voivodina is the base of the thread. It might be a very unlikely sceniario to say the least, but that's how it is. Nato is a supportive factor.

The Kosovo conflict has already began, hence the Nato bombings.


Annexation is not a goal. It's not possible anyway, the Serbs are the majority in the area. The Hungarian goal is the detachment of a diverse and developed area from a crumbling and increasingly nationalistic Yugoslavia(Serbia), and the establishment of a "Swiss-inspired" multiethnic country there. Given, that Vojvodina was already a separate region even within Yugoslavia, I believe, that such action could be accepted by the majority of the international community. The very same thing as Kosovo OTL.

The hostility from Slovakia and Romania might be a problem, but it would be in their interest to downplay that, if they want to get into the Nato.



The EU expansion might be interesting though. I often hear, that Romania and Bulgaria were let in the Union early to prevent the spread of Russian influence in the region. Couldn't the same be applied to Hungary as counterargument for the potential delay to their entrance into the EU? Could Hungary join the EU at the same time with the new state of Vojvodina?


My ultimate goal in the thread would be to get Vojvodina into the EU max. as late as Croatia.

lol, in my mind, the war was in the early 90s... My bad...

In 1999, something horrible needs to happen to the Vojvodina Hungarians on the level of Albanians in Kosovo for Hungary to get support. Milosevic purging Hungarians to secure the remaining Serb lands maybe? This will create a more paranoid Serbia with the risk of Montenegro separating as soon as possible to distance themselves with Belgrade...

I don't know. It depends on the members who want Vojvodina to join the EU. Cyprus for example, blocked Turkeys access to seriously negotiate to join the EU. Now without Romania and Slovakia being in the EU before Hungary and Vojvodina, there is a likely chance it will join in 2004. Serbia will protest it but nothin serious happens.

 

[viperzero]

what exactly did the Hungarian armed forces look like in 1999? could they have pulled this off?

 

[Fehérvári]

In 1999, something horrible needs to happen to the Vojvodina Hungarians on the level of Albanians in Kosovo for Hungary to get support. Milosevic purging Hungarians to secure the remaining Serb lands maybe? This will create a more paranoid Serbia with the risk of Montenegro separating as soon as possible to distance themselves with Belgrade...

This is easily within the scope of possibilities, imo. Maybe an incident, where there's a protest against the actions in Kosovo in Újvidék/Novi Sad or Szabadka/Subotica, which the police tries to dissipate, but things go violent in the process?

I don't know. It depends on the members who want Vojvodina to join the EU. Cyprus for example, blocked Turkeys access to seriously negotiate to join the EU. Now without Romania and Slovakia being in the EU before Hungary and Vojvodina, there is a likely chance it will join in 2004. Serbia will protest it but nothin serious happens.

Before anything else, Vojvodina needs to be recognised by the "West". OTL, Kosovo declared independence in 2008 and was recognised in the same year. Vojvodina might declare independence as early as 2000, since it's not the UN, who occupies it, and the treaty ratified by Serbia could be worded entirely differently. Maybe a successful referendum on independence would be the best course. The prospects of joining the EU early and not having to lose tax money to develope the poorer part of Serbia if they remain may sway enough Serbs for the referendum to succeed.

If the independence is declared and recognised this(2000) early, then Vojvodina has time to negotiate with the EU to join in 2004.

Would Montenegro maybe leave Yugoslavia early in such sceniario and could they join the EU together with Croatia in 2013?

what exactly did the Hungarian armed forces look like in 1999? could they have pulled this off?

The sceniario assumes they can, but I'm not actually sure, since I don't know the state of the Yugoslav Army at the time. According to the Hungarian Wikipedia, The Hungarian Army in 1988 had 113 fighters, 96 attack helicopters, 1435 tanks, 2310 AFVs, 27 MLRS, 1750 artillery guns, 270 anti-tank guns, 500 anti-air guns and 50 AVLBs. These were mostly Soviet tech, not dissimilar to their Yugoslav adversaries'.

 

[Marko]

I remember the political debate from the time as well as newspaper articles.

If there ever was to be a Hungarian ground forces participation in forcing FRY to back down in Kosovo it would be as part of a NATO action even if Hungarians are the only boots on the ground. If I recall correctly the plan was to make a two pronged armoured push towards Belgrade to get Milošević to back down. Once such an action is taken it is questionable whether there would be any occupation of Vojvodina by NATO (Hungarian) troops but it is not beyond the realm of possibility under the pretext of protecting the remaining major minorities in FRY from Serbian retaliation. Should such an event happen I find it likely that many of the Serb refugies from Croatia and BiH that took residence there would be inclined to move once more rather than stay which would decrease the percentage of Serb population while the administrative exclusion of Vojvodina from FRY could lead to a much higher return rate of Croatian and Hungarian reffugies from the early '90 further changing the composition of the region. Where the situation would go from there is anyones guess, but I would find it highly unlikely to see Vojvodina in the same status as today.

One of the reasons why NATO decided to against ground invasion from Hungary towards Belgrade was fear that outright shattering of FRY Army could restart the fighting in BiH with Croats and Bosniaks taking the opportunity to target and dismantle Srpska that would be lacking their main supporter.

I also remember from later interviews of political figures from the time there were negotiations between Croatian and Hungarian officials (representing NATO) as well as someone from US whose name now escapes me of adding a potential third axis of attack coming from the west and constituting of Croatian Army to tie down the most elite FRYA units deployed in Srem guarding western approaches towards Belgrade ever since Operation Storm in 1995. But these talks were quickly abandoned because there was concern it could turn into a clusterfuck as Cro officials couldn't guarantee there wouldn't be any retaliatory killings and persecution of civilian population during the operation. Not to mention soliciting Croatias support was feared would completely undermine the Dayton accords.

 

[kalamona]

what exactly did the Hungarian armed forces look like in 1999? could they have pulled this off?

With NATO air supprt, yes. Otherweise, on paper yes, in reality hell knows.

About---6? mechanized brigades, independent artillery brigade, after mobilization about 9 motorized brigade... lets say, the hardware and the possible manpower were there.

No one wanted that tough.

 

[rfmcdonald]

State collapse? What do you mean exactly? On the other note, yeah, Hungarian neighbours might view such action with suspicion, that's very likely. Given, that Hungary does nothing warning afterwards though, would such worries last?

What happens in Vojvodina, to Vojvodina, needs to be nailed down. Does Milosevic attempt to ethnically cleanse the Vojvodina Hungarians? Does Vojvodina try to break away from Serbia? Does it succeed without conflict, or is there another war?

Annexation is not a goal. It's not possible anyway, the Serbs are the majority in the area. The Hungarian goal is the detachment of a diverse and developed area from a crumbling and increasingly nationalistic Yugoslavia(Serbia), and the establishment of a "Swiss-inspired" multiethnic country there. Given, that Vojvodina was already a separate region even within Yugoslavia, I believe, that such action could be accepted by the majority of the international community. The very same thing as Kosovo OTL.

This implies a sort of pan-Vojvodina nationalism. That might not be impossible, granted.

The EU expansion might be interesting though. I often hear, that Romania and Bulgaria were let in the Union early to prevent the spread of Russian influence in the region. Couldn't the same be applied to Hungary as counterargument for the potential delay to their entrance into the EU? Could Hungary join the EU at the same time with the new state of Vojvodina?

If you are talking about a Vojvodina that detaches itself from Serbia and enters into a pro-Western trajectory at an early date, eventually opting for independence, I see no reason why it might not join at the same time as (say) Croatia.

 

[Fehérvári]

What happens in Vojvodina, to Vojvodina, needs to be nailed down. Does Milosevic attempt to ethnically cleanse the Vojvodina Hungarians? Does Vojvodina try to break away from Serbia? Does it succeed without conflict, or is there another war?

Protest against war in Kosovo turns violent, which devolves into the heavy prosecution of minorities in Vojvodina. Alongside with the ethnicities, this turns a portion of the Serb population against the Milosevic regime as well. Street violence becomes commonplace. The situation in Vijvodina tempts the Hungarians to occupy the area.

Maybe somethin like this?

This implies a sort of pan-Vojvodina nationalism. That might not be impossible, granted.

Maybe the refugees from Kosovo flooding the area could create a general uneasiness among the original population, which together with the background above could create a separatist fervor. As much as I know, the given Vojvodina's special status and generally bigger wealth, there was/is actually a some kind of feeling distinction. We only need to amplify that.

If you are talking about a Vojvodina that detaches itself from Serbia and enters into a pro-Western trajectory at an early date, eventually opting for independence, I see no reason why it might not join at the same time as (say) Croatia.

Yeah, 2013 seems like a plausible date, but could it happen earlier?

 

[rfmcdonald]

Protest against war in Kosovo turns violent, which devolves into the heavy prosecution of minorities in Vojvodina. Alongside with the ethnicities, this turns a portion of the Serb population against the Milosevic regime as well. Street violence becomes commonplace. The situation in Vijvodina tempts the Hungarians to occupy the area.

Maybe somethin like this?

Maybe the refugees from Kosovo flooding the area could create a general uneasiness among the original population, which together with the background above could create a separatist fervor. As much as I know, the given Vojvodina's special status and generally bigger wealth, there was/is actually a some kind of feeling distinction. We only need to amplify that.

There does seem to be a regional identity among Vojvodina Serbs. If Montenegrins ended up identifying themselves, by a majority, as non-Serb, I do not see a reason why the same process could not take place in Vojvodina. The relative weakness of Vojvodinan identity, mind, would be an issue.

Yeah, 2013 seems like a plausible date, but could it happen earlier?

Even if Vojvodina has a great post-1999 trajectory, becoming a stable democracy and experiencing substantial economic growth and being able to implement the acquis communautaire, with such a recent history of conflict I do not see it joining the EU at the same time as the stabler Romania and Bulgaria. Admission at the same time as Croatia, a western Balkan state with a similar and even linked history, is the most plausible scenario. This is especially the case if Vojvodina independence is contested in the same way as Kosovo's independence.

 

[Dementor]

I remember the political debate from the time as well as newspaper articles.

If there ever was to be a Hungarian ground forces participation in forcing FRY to back down in Kosovo it would be as part of a NATO action even if Hungarians are the only boots on the ground. If I recall correctly the plan was to make a two pronged armoured push towards Belgrade to get Milošević to back down. Once such an action is taken it is questionable whether there would be any occupation of Vojvodina by NATO (Hungarian) troops but it is not beyond the realm of possibility under the pretext of protecting the remaining major minorities in FRY from Serbian retaliation.

This would hardly justify the occupation of the whole of Vojvodina. Of course if NATO wanted it, they could exploit this excuse, though it would rather contradict their own occupation of Kosovo.

Should such an event happen I find it likely that many of the Serb refugies from Croatia and BiH that took residence there would be inclined to move once more rather than stay which would decrease the percentage of Serb population

I don't find it at all likely that people who've already lost everything once would be that eager to undergo the same experience again. Unless they're being forced out by the Hungarian forces, of course.

while the administrative exclusion of Vojvodina from FRY could lead to a much higher return rate of Croatian and Hungarian reffugies from the early '90 further changing the composition of the region.

There weren't any significant number of Hungarian refugees. As for the Croat refugees, most of them had been resettled at this point and would probably be reluctant to return to a region with an uncertain status.

Where the situation would go from there is anyones guess, but I would find it highly unlikely to see Vojvodina in the same status as today.

Even by its 1989 ethnic composition Vojovodina is majority Serbian. Unless NATO commits to its permanent occupation or significant ethnic cleansing is carried out, it would be difficult to prevent its eventual reunification with Serbia. Of course Hungary could probably arrange for the secession of the Hungarian majority area.

One of the reasons why NATO decided to against ground invasion from Hungary towards Belgrade was fear that outright shattering of FRY Army could restart the fighting in BiH with Croats and Bosniaks taking the opportunity to target and dismantle Srpska that would be lacking their main supporter.

How is that going to happen when Bosnia is occupied by large peacekeeping troops? Any such dismantling could only take place with the permission of NATO.

I also remember from later interviews of political figures from the time there were negotiations between Croatian and Hungarian officials (representing NATO) as well as someone from US whose name now escapes me of adding a potential third axis of attack coming from the west and constituting of Croatian Army to tie down the most elite FRYA units deployed in Srem guarding western approaches towards Belgrade ever since Operation Storm in 1995. But these talks were quickly abandoned because there was concern it could turn into a clusterfuck as Cro officials couldn't guarantee there wouldn't be any retaliatory killings and persecution of civilian population during the operation. Not to mention soliciting Croatias support was feared would completely undermine the Dayton accords.

Why would Croatia even want to participate in such an operation? Unless they hoped they could gain Srem, which of course would explain why the Croatian officials "couldn't guarantee" no "retaliatory" killings and persecution of civilian population: they did not consider it possible to hold such a large area with a Serbian majority without substantial ethnic cleansing.