If this much less likely choice were made, there is far less data to work with. I do make some assumptions, although I'm not fond of dying on any of these hills.
1. Phillips will make the decision before midnight, not long after sinking
HMIJS Chokai.
2. HMNLS Jacob van Heemskerk, HMAS Vampire and HMS Tenedos will be detached; the first two for political reasons, but with the destroyers fuel considerations as well.
3. Phillips has no firm location of IJN transports, but in the OTL there are 46. I have identified 22 by name and speed and they and their escorts will have definitely have cleared the Gulf of Siam. Seven more I have identified as too slow, and will be vulnerable. All seven came from Singora and Patani invasion beaches, and will have the most difficulty reaching safety in Thailand. I possess no factual knowledge on the other 17.
4. The IJN laid out their cruisers in a surface reconnaissance screen, not that much different than World War I tactics employed by cruisers. Each was accompanied by at least one destroyer. The transports were also escorted by destroyers.
5. The first ships encountered by Force Z will be
HMIJS Suzuya and one or two U/I destroyers, probably about 0400 to 0500. Conditions are very different than with
HMIJS Chokai, although radar is still a British advantage. Whether the Japanese cruiser survives or not, the IJN has a firm fix on location, course and speed of Frrce Z. At this point revisit a previous comment.
if the Japanese have an additional 30-45 minutes of fuel the attacks would be better coordinated.
The Japanese have four to five hours of additional fuel! The attacks will be very well coordinated, and no distractions such as misidentifying HMS Tenedos as HMS Repulse. There will also be no need of a delay between launch of recce and attack aircraft.
6. HMS Indomitable will launch her search aircraft about 0530. Second salient point:
Knowing that a carrier is present the Japanese would make use of the 20 Zero's that were availed.
Yep. Especially since the fighters are already assigned to cover the transports. They will not reach there before the RN recce do, but certainly will before any Albacores will.
7. I am not sure if any ships of Force Z will survive.
8. If the RN is lucky, and say seven of the slower transports are sunk, or sufficiently damaged to require extensive repairs, then roughly one brigade of lift is lost to the IJN. This will likely delay the Japanese advance through British Borneo until other transports from lower priority missions replace them, probably a full month. The cancelled operation is probably the occupation of Rabaul in January 1942. Quite likely Rabaul will be significantly reinforced.
8. This may not change the eventual outcome of the Malaya and East Indies Campaigns, but may eliminate the Solomons altogether.
Comments/Critiques?