Wanting to keep KMT china on board, expect europe to get it's guestworkers from china instead of turkey/morocco in ttl.
How different would a modern day KMT one party China look compared to today's China?
- Thread starter sirjackalot
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Probably not. A KMT China would have a pretty big and complex political system, leaving the CIA with a "If you shoot at the king, you better not miss" kind of challenge.
Modern Imperialism
Banned
The KMT with Soviets north of them, communist insurgents, and just fighting a war with communist might be hardline on capitalism and free trade. Also extremely anti soviet. CIA and US probably have zero reason for coup. If anything they might have to help prop them up somewhat in case of revolution or second civil war.
The might invade Mongolia and militarized the hell out of its large border with Soviets. A modern Great Wall?
If a second civil war or revolution happened that is very bad due to Soviets being right next to them. KMT China might have nukes even earlier then communist China
A KMT China is probably going to have a lot of parastatals (but then again, so did a lot of the NATO members).
Probably not, though the probability of Operation Mongolian Freedom increases if Cold War Mongolia sponsored Inner Mongolian separatist groups, and continued to do so after the Berlin Wall came down.
Not necessarily; the GMD was a very diverse phenomenon, and the GMD was just as anti-capitalist as the rest of China's political parties. A GMD that is top dog is one where its left wing did not break off and thus has as much influence as its fascist wing. Also, it should be mentioned that a good portion of the GMD's structure was modelled on the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and even when he was helping the CCP Stalin and the rest of the Kremlin preferred the GMD in charge anyway (Stalin did not think too highly of the Chinese Communists anyway).
OTOH a good portion of the US and ordinary Chinese hated Jiang's guts, so in order for the GMD it would have to be necessary to take out Jiang and replace him with someone else.
It would not, and the Mongolian Constitution is specifically designed to prevent any one power from dominating over it. Hence it's neutral between Russia and China. Also, (Outer) Mongolia was also one of the Soviet Union's red lines - one which made the 1945 Sino-Soviet Treaty possible (a potential POD here would be the Kremlin sticking to its side of the bargain of not aiding the CCP and cutting it loose). After the fall of the USSR, Mongolians did not want to be dominated by any one large power again - something which even the former Communist Party recognized, of which the price to be paid by Ulaanbaatar was that Inner Mongolia remained with China.
Something which the MPR never really did IOTL, from what I can recall. If they did, the Kremlin would force a leadership change (after all, despite independence the MPR was basically treated de facto as if it was part of the Soviet Union anyway). So no newly-liberated Inner Mongolia for you unless you want to end up in a gulag.
Modern Imperialism
Banned
Geography still plays into migration. If anything United States might have a lot more Chinese people out west then otl. That exclusion of Chinese immigrants will be gone with immigration reform and racial requirements being removed in 60s.
Chinese would not go to Europe. They would go to Southeast(backup plan and probably encourage by government to give them more influence there and trade. They do already have established communities and will speak up when people try to wipe them out or pressure them to leave). But the top options would be US and Canada with Latin America and Brazil being seconds. Australia and New Zealand would be desired options too but I see them being more uptight about immigrants especially Australia.
The thing is this might prevent the stereotype of the “smart Chinese” person. This is somewhat of a repeat of last century. Most immigrants are going to be poor masses and some will be opium addicts. Chinese are going to often be seen more like Mexicans or immigrants from the developing world. That being cheap uneducated labor.
Think how this impacts the rapidly developing western United States. The Mexicans immigrants still might come in around the 80s and 70s but cheap Chinese immigrants might start pouring into California again in the 60s and early 70s. Maybe the 50s if relationships with KMT and China are high(KMT would see the Chinese exclusion act as a national insult and ask it to be removed).
Racial tensions in west might be much worse. Asians in California are often more racist then whites towards black. You also have Chinese labor competing against Mexicans and blacks for lower income jobs. They will be living close to each other and overlapping neighborhoods. LA especially during 80s might get really bad.
You would have Mexican gangs, American gangs, Chinese triads, coke, opium(triads), and a lot of human trafficking. I do not trust CIA not to do something incredibly underhanded or immoral regarding opium if it still widespread given the stuff they did in Latin America regarding coke. I think they might very well use opium same way brits did against China. They still don’t want a KMT China to become more powerful then them or become a superpower itself. A bunch of it’s underclass being hook on opium helps keep China behind while also helping to fund KMT fight against communist insurgents. When Afghanistan Soviet war happened the US and CIA might very well work with opium drug lords there more so then people they worked with in otl there. Triads and Afghanistan drug lords might have real close ties in KMT China.
If your poor China likely still going to suck for you. They might have more social mobility and access to higher standards of living but with billion people and likely a extremely anti communist regime you are looking at a country with no social safety net, worker rights, or one with terrible environmental record. So some of the same but also a lot of difference too.
The cultural impact of a massive Chinese Diaspora would be very interesting. Japan is probably very strict on preventing large scale immigrants of any type especially of Chinese. Korea might be less bad.
Another interesting possibility is former communist leaning Chinese people fleeing into Soviet Union especially Siberia and Central Asia after the fail in China and likely are hunted down by KMT. The Soviets might let them in to help develop Siberia and Central Asia while also letting some sneak back over border to fight KMT as partisans.
Traids could be a bigger international issue then otl. The Italian mafia in otl has corner much of the heroine trade in northeast due to its connection to actual Italian mafia in Europe who often uses its connections in Islamic world to get opium to make heroine. You have cartels to south making and smuggling coke. Then in this pod you would have traids bringing more opium to US to smoke. I think California would have more Gran Torino type neighborhoods made up of Chinese immigrants. The Chinese won’t be seen as a “model minority” in anyway or form. The US would be more multi ethnic those and have more Asians
I suspect the US would probably pressure latin america to open up to chinese migration in the 50s as a sop to chinese opinion
Not necessarily - there were already Chinese people in LatAm for a while (the Chinatowns in Cuba and México don't count for nothing), but they were already the subject of racist attitudes and heavy pressure to assimilate into various national cultures. Rather, LatAm would remain closed to Chinese migration because, in the racist mindsets of the governments of the day, the Chinese were not "the right people" and much preferred Europeans and Middle Easterners to come instead. If an Asian people were to come, Latin American governments at the time would much prefer Japanese people since they already were familiar with Latin America (more so than the Chinese) and in fact many Latin American governments resisted as much as possible the forced expulsion or interment of their Japanese communities. I would assume that even ITTL many Latin American governments, as wrong and racist as they are, would act in this same manner but broaden it to include Koreans instead. Of course, there will be some exceptions - especially Cuba - but that would be the general rule.
Consider that there will certainly be further border clashes between the Soviet Union and China. Consider that it will be even more dangerous since it will mean that China will certainly demand the ability to develop nuclear weapons. This means not just the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons but the actual creation and possession of nuclear weapons.
Probably, though the Dalai Lama will probably stay put. If he plays his cards right, he could end up being the nominal authority over Buddhism in China.
In the ATL, does the Kuomintang still participate in the drug trade? In OTL, the Kuomintang is infamous at least since the late 1960s for sponsoring the opium/ heroin trade, hence why heroin is called "China White". This could certainly make things ugly in U.S./ Chinese relations in the 1970s,...
I am guessing yes, especially if the Kuomintang still participates in the drug trade, and/or if it is blocked from nuclear weapons development.
U.S., Japanese and European sanctions... Granted, as seen by South Africa, Israel, France, India, Iran, Pakistan and North Korea, this tactic only works to delay the development. Another problem is that it would send a signal to the world that there is a major fracture in America's alliance system. At the very least it would be similar to the 1956-1964 Sino-Soviet split, with America playing the part of the Soviet Union.
Why on earth would they become a narco-state? KMT involvement OTL was entirely predicated on being pushed into lawless border country in the south-west where the surviving nationalist forces became little more than gangs. That's not going to happen here.