How best to "preserve" the Chinese monarchy?

[oshron]

hey, all. been a while since i made a thread like this, huh?

for the record, i'm putting this here because the Chinese monarchy ended post-1900, but i'm open to any and all PODs that could lead to this result

one of the bigger problems i've noticed with basically all of my worldbuilding projects is that i typically have little idea of what to do with China. as i was typing this post, i remembered that some ideas have occurred to me in the past, but i don't have them committed to memory (i think one was a partly jokey idea of it getting split into three states with the one roughly in the center of the country being a rump Imperial Chinese state so that it's the Middle Kingdom ) but i recently got an idea for what to do with it in my ASB ATL that was kinda staring me in the face the whole time. (that seems to happen alot ) that, of course, is my inquiry here.

to explain a bit, Code Geass was a formative influence on my intended epic-scale ASB ATL, Dichotomy, (it was actually what really drew my attention to alternate history as a genre in the first place, so even if it's nowhere near plausible it's still very important to me, personally) and more recently i've decided to take that to its logical conclusion and more intentionally draw on and both deconstruct and reconstruct alot of the elements of the very soft AH in the series. what i realized that means for Dichotomy is that China would probably work "best" as an attempt at making the Chinese Federation as depicted there at least marginally more realistic, meaning that it would still be a monarchy instead of going communist or republican like it did IOTL even if that might still happen ITTL (if there's any significant change to its in-universe status quo, it would be set in the 1960s or so based on when Code Geass "actually" takes place relative to OTL). me being me, there would also be shades of the United Federation of Asian Republics from Empire Earth and probably some other stuff, but i was hoping i could get some starting points, at least, for keeping China as a monarchy for at least a while longer. "High Eunuchs" are totally optional

so, thoughts?

 

[LeX]

Probably the simplest way is to convert the Qing Dynasty to a constitutional monarchy. Instead of siding with the republican rebels, General Yuan Shikai helps the Manchu court suppress the 1911 revolt in Wuchang, which gives the Qing enough time to implement its constitution and parliament. I am not sure that this development would have been enough to save the dynasty over the longer term, however.

Karelian's March of Time timeline posits a collapse of the Qing in 1902 following a more disastrous Boxer Rebellion. The new monarch, who has a purely ceremonial role in the parliamentary system, is a descendant of Confucius.

 

[snerfuplz]

I don't think this would save the Qing Dynasty in the longer term. The Qing Dynasty was considered a foreign regime, not a native dynasty. Had it been native then maybe it would have a chance to survive as a constitutional monarchy

 

[kholieken]

I don't think this would save the Qing Dynasty in the longer term. The Qing Dynasty was considered a foreign regime, not a native dynasty. Had it been native then maybe it would have a chance to survive as a constitutional monarchy

Many natives chinese loyal enough to help it fight Taiping rebellion. Qing failure against foreigner is reason nationalistic chinese declaring it foreign regime. Succcessful Qing is likely whitewashed as native chinese regimes and manchus as assimilated.

 

[LeX]

I think the stronger factor against the Qing surviving is just simply how corrupt and incompetent its leadership was. Nationalist tendencies can be smoothed over by economic progress and military self-strengthening. But even if the court implemented European-style governance it's almost certain that entrenched elites would find a way to undermine it. And the era of strong, far-sighted emperors like Kangxi or Yongzheng was long over.

 

[snerfuplz]

Many natives chinese loyal enough to help it fight Taiping rebellion. Qing failure against foreigner is reason nationalistic chinese declaring it foreign regime. Succcessful Qing is likely whitewashed as native chinese regimes and manchus as assimilated.

The Taiping Rebellion was also dominated by the Hakka, which were also seen as outsiders to the broader Han culture. That being said Han Chinese did join both sides of the conflict.

The Qing would have to change their strict 8-banner system in order to assimilate into the broader Han culture. Without that, I'd argue that rising nationalism globally would eventually inspire Han Chinese nationalism against the Qing.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

I don't think this would save the Qing Dynasty in the longer term. The Qing Dynasty was considered a foreign regime, not a native dynasty. Had it been native then maybe it would have a chance to survive as a constitutional monarchy

This. The only way for the monarchy to survive would've been for a Ming heir to return to power.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Superpower Empire by @Hendryk is well worth the read.
Iirc, Yuan Shikai establishes a new dynasty, although it's been a long time since I read it.

As for the Qing, preserving them in large casks filled with salt and brine would be helpful.

 

[West234]

This. The only way for the monarchy to survive would've been for a Ming heir to return to power.

I disagree most people in China were perfectly content with being ruled by the Qing dynasty for centuries (or at the very least they didn’t care that they were foreigners) that was the nationalist movement rose to prominence. If the Ming for some reason were to come back into power it would not get rid of any of the other problems that plagued China at the time in fact such a transition would probably only destabilize it further.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

I disagree most people in China were perfectly content with being ruled by the Qing dynasty for centuries (or at the very least they didn’t care that they were foreigners) that was the nationalist movement rose to prominence.

You know what that's called? Stockholm syndrome.

 

[snerfuplz]

After doing a bit more reading, it seems the foreignness of the Qing is a rather heated debate in histography. They are largely grouped into the New Qing History and Eurasian History. Here is a good intro text to the debate: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1754-0208.2011.00454.x

 

[LeX]

You know what that's called? Stockholm syndrome.

Maybe, but the whole idea that a government just exists and can take your money and grain and you have to honor them as the Son of Heaven is pretty Stockholm Syndrome too. Doesn't matter whether they hailed from China proper or an adjacent region.

The Qing assimilated to Chinese ways basically to the point where they lost their own culture and language. People got tired of their rule because they could no longer bear their ineptitude, not because they were so intent on being governed specifically by Han Chinese.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

After losing its war with Japan, have Russia form a military alliance with Qing China, and have Russian soldiers prop up the monarchy.

 

[CountDVB]

I will bring back an oldie, but a goodie I said before here. I think it could still apply!

I actually have an idea with this! Basically, have Sun Yat-sen and his revolutionaries instead maintain the idea of a constitutional monarchy and exploit the presence of the "Mandate of Heaven"within the culture to their advantage. After all, the Qing's Manchurian ties were a sticking point so a rallying cry would be restoring a Han Chinese to the throne descended of the Ming dynasty.

Why the Mandate of Heaven being used? Cause of this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_of_Heaven#The_right_to_rule_and_the_right_of_rebellion

Aka, someone from the House of Zhu, preferably with leftist leanings. Even if they may not have much if any official political power, he would still be the emperor. That vast amount of cultural power and influence cannot be underestimated. He would be the representation of modern China and this who all should emulate.

And I even have a pretty good idea on who should be the new Emperor if you will.

"Zhu Jianfan (simplified Chinese: 朱剑凡; traditional Chinese: 朱劍凡, 1883–1932, born in Ningxiang, Hunan), previously named as Zhou Jia-Chun (Chinese: 周家純), was a famous revolutionary educator. He founded Zhounan Women's School (Chinese: 周南女學堂) by selling off and contributing all his property, which was valued at 111,700 silver dollars. He held the post of principal until 1927. It is a rare magnificent feat in the educational history of China. In 1911, he led students participate in Anti-Manchurian Revolution, and persuaded Hunan army to correspond to Wuchang Uprising. In 1922, he invited Mao Zedong to live on his campus, and sponsored Mao's library"

He would fit pretty well and while it may be a bit of a hard sell to convince Zhu Jianfan of it, the pragmatism of the choice and being able to put in alot of reforms would make it worth it. Sun Yat-sen meanwhile would become Grand Chancellor (in keeping the name) and thus he and his coalition could pass the reforms needing while the new Emperor would serve as a beacon of hope, the return of the rightful king if you will.

 

[Canopus108]

I will bring back an oldie, but a goodie I said before here. I think it could still apply!

The early revolutionaries did contain Ming restorationist elements, so this is at least plausible. Maybe have Sun and other Tongmenghui members be a bit more negative on the republicanism they observe in America and France, and a bit more considering of the power of constitutional monarchies like Japan (where many revolutionaries studied). Much of Chinese political thought during that time was about acquiring foreign ideas and systems for domestic uses.

Maybe, but the whole idea that a government just exists and can take your money and grain and you have to honor them as the Son of Heaven is pretty Stockholm Syndrome too. Doesn't matter whether they hailed from China proper or an adjacent region.

The Qing assimilated to Chinese ways basically to the point where they lost their own culture and language. People got tired of their rule because they could no longer bear their ineptitude, not because they were so intent on being governed specifically by Han Chinese.

The level of assimilation has been vastly overstated in popular history; there was still a strong Manchurian identity even by 1911, and after the golden age of the Qianlong Emperor's reign ended the 1800s saw rising anti-Manchurian sentiment among the people. Sun Yat-Sen had in fact used the slogan "expel the Manchus" during several periods, to great acclaim.

Manchurian identity had seen some assimilation, but this was halted and partly reversed by the Qianlong Emperor's cultural reforms. They did see further assimilation with the loss of their language but the ultimate death of Manchurian identity would only come in the massacres of 1912. Though the revolutionaries eventually dropped any outright ambitions of ethnic cleansing, the coming decades would see "events" that permanently destroyed the Manchurian identity. Due to historians being unwilling or unable to translate Manchurian-language documents and the lack of a strong Manchurian community to speak for themselves, the idea of a fully assimilated Manchurian ruling class (as opposed to a complex cosmopolitan Beijing that combined elements from across China) was cemented.

One way or the other, the Qing Dynasty and Manchurian rule wouldn't be able to survive the 20th century.

 

[Sardar]

The level of assimilation has been vastly overstated in popular history; there was still a strong Manchurian identity even by 1911, and after the golden age of the Qianlong Emperor's reign ended the 1800s saw rising anti-Manchurian sentiment among the people. Sun Yat-Sen had in fact used the slogan "expel the Manchus" during several periods, to great acclaim.

What exactly does "strong" mean? Again, there were many, many Han who willingly put themselves on the line for the Qing Dynasty. And that slogan was of course simply propaganda because many saw the Imperial system as not viable to protect China. If it was a Han dynasty in the same situation, likely it would simply be "down with the pampered Emperor" or something.

 

[Whiteshore]

What about Yuan Shikai’s Empire of China? Could it (or a similar regime) have worked out had Yuan Shikai/an equivalent figure been more canny in his plans?

 

[CountDVB]

The early revolutionaries did contain Ming restorationist elements, so this is at least plausible. Maybe have Sun and other Tongmenghui members be a bit more negative on the republicanism they observe in America and France, and a bit more considering of the power of constitutional monarchies like Japan (where many revolutionaries studied). Much of Chinese political thought during that time was about acquiring foreign ideas and systems for domestic uses.

Glad you like the idea! Inspiration from the British could work since the Victorian era did see the crown work on its image and become a prominent cultural influence. And given how much of the peasantry would still hold a monarch-like figure in high regard, would be something they would considerto influnce the masses.

The level of assimilation has been vastly overstated in popular history; there was still a strong Manchurian identity even by 1911, and after the golden age of the Qianlong Emperor's reign ended the 1800s saw rising anti-Manchurian sentiment among the people. Sun Yat-Sen had in fact used the slogan "expel the Manchus" during several periods, to great acclaim.

Manchurian identity had seen some assimilation, but this was halted and partly reversed by the Qianlong Emperor's cultural reforms. They did see further assimilation with the loss of their language but the ultimate death of Manchurian identity would only come in the massacres of 1912. Though the revolutionaries eventually dropped any outright ambitions of ethnic cleansing, the coming decades would see "events" that permanently destroyed the Manchurian identity. Due to historians being unwilling or unable to translate Manchurian-language documents and the lack of a strong Manchurian community to speak for themselves, the idea of a fully assimilated Manchurian ruling class (as opposed to a complex cosmopolitan Beijing that combined elements from across China) was cemented.

One way or the other, the Qing Dynasty and Manchurian rule wouldn't be able to survive the 20th century.

This now reminds me of an odd idea for a "Chinese Union." The Chinese Union basically being a nation with various constinuent countries, like how the UK is. With the Chinese Union being China, Manchuria, Tibet and Uighurstan. Maybe something could happen regarding the monarchy to maintain Manchu identity of a sort?

 

[Arkenfolm]

After losing its war with Japan, have Russia form a military alliance with Qing China, and have Russian soldiers prop up the monarchy.

That went very poorly for Qajar Iran.

 

[Canopus108]

What exactly does "strong" mean? Again, there were many, many Han who willingly put themselves on the line for the Qing Dynasty. And that slogan was of course simply propaganda because many saw the Imperial system as not viable to protect China. If it was a Han dynasty in the same situation, likely it would simply be "down with the pampered Emperor" or something.

There were Manchurian districts in cities such as Xi'an, typically the prestigious centre. There were Manchurian-only organisations like the Banners (which had been purged of Han members by Qianlong). While Puyi did not speak Manchurian many still did. And of course, there was indiscriminate violence offered by extremists to all Manchurians.

Yes, many Han were supporters of the Qing Dynasty. Many more tore off their pigtails and slaughtered the local Manchu garrison because the majority did not want the Qing Dynasty to continue in any form. There is a reason there were Manchurian districts in every major city in 1911, and almost none in 1921, and it wasn't slow assimilation into a supportive Han majority.

The slogan "expel the Manchu", in my view, cannot be seen as simply propaganda given the mass murders and widespread resentment of the Manchurian ruling class in 1912. The very fact that discontent with the regime took the form of anti-Manchu sentiment and not just "down with the pampered Emperor" is a sign of how much the privileges and authority of the Manchurian minority had enraged the majority of Han. Dr Sun genuinely saw the Manchurians as outside colonisers who needed to be sent north of the pass even though he worked with some pro-reform Manchurians and ultimately walked back from this position.

Glad you like the idea! Inspiration from the British could work since the Victorian era did see the crown work on its image and become a prominent cultural influence. And given how much of the peasantry would still hold a monarch-like figure in high regard, would be something they would considerto influnce the masses.

Hmm, yes, I think the Victorian model of limited imperial authority is probably the most likely compromise with the Republican modernist sentiment. If the future emperor was a military man it might trend more Japanese

What about Yuan Shikai’s Empire of China? Could it (or a similar regime) have worked out had Yuan Shikai/an equivalent figure been more canny in his plans?

Yuan Shikai himself is unlikely to lead a monarchist China long-term, but a cannier figure...could? It wouldn't be very popular for at least a decade, a Ming candidate or Duke Yansheng (Confucius descendant) candidate would have the most possible legitimacy, but it could be done. There was a timeline on here like that that got published as With Iron and Fire. I enjoyed it and I think it's the most plausible such scenario of a non-Ming candidate.

This now reminds me of an odd idea for a "Chinese Union." The Chinese Union basically being a nation with various constinuent countries, like how the UK is. With the Chinese Union being China, Manchuria, Tibet and Uighurstan. Maybe something could happen regarding the monarchy to maintain Manchu identity of a sort?

Hmm, well there were federalist movements such as Chen Jionming's movement, the "Five Races" flag and even today China has, on-paper, autonomous regions. So I think it's plausible but on the low end. Then again monarchist China is already implausible. Tibetans and Uyghurs would like the idea anyway.

Manchurian identity is still going to be weakened without Qing-era privileges but OTL there was a compromise that declared the Forbidden City a technically independent piece of the Qing where the Emperor still rules despite the rest of China being a republic, so a monarchist China doing something similar is plausible. A monarchist China doing something like this would most likely use the old Two Crownings, Three Respects system to honour the Aisin-Gioro by declaring parts of the northeast and the Forbidden City a Qing fief. Ironically the Qing honoured the Ming under a similar sentiment by giving the Zhu family the title "Marquis of Extended Grace" - history repeating.

So I can see a Manchurian identity persisting in a limited way, not to the extent of covering all of Manchuria (which was pretty set on the path to becoming Han majority) but with Manchurians and Xibe from across China having a pillar of cultural identity and legitimacy to rally around. Pro-Qing military forces promised a safe way out through this system are more likely to stand down and join the Qing honour guard, and now marginalised Manchurians might flock to these new territories. I know I would certainly visit these territories where the Qing still officially survive. Alternate History shouldn't have to be 100% the most likely outcome after all, just plausible.