Similarly the AH empire wasn't doomed to collapse, although it was facing mounting internal pressures that would need to be tackled without resorting to more of the same, and officially adding Bosnia to the fold in 1908 was always going to have consequences both for them internally and internationally in Eastern Europe.
In my opinion the A-H annexation of Bosnia in 1908 was a solid move. It was during a time of Russian weakness, so matters were unlikely to escalate beyond A-H control. To ensure no bad blood, A-H sought and obtained prior Russian approval for the annexation. It entrenched the status quo and removed Bosnia from the table - essentially making it less assessable to the increasingly aspirational goals of Serbia and even the Ottomans. It protected the vast investment A-H had made into the infrastructure of the territory and the rights of the majority of the population, which had no desire for Serbian rule. What's not to like?
Actually fair enough no official treaty but pretty damn clear mutual agreement and support, (the Russians had just basically put Pasic back in government). the Russian had not been shy about their backing either, and the AH were well aware of it. Russia had been in with Serbia since 1807, and had basically been making moves in this area since then. AH knew they were countering Russian influence in the area (and vice versa of course).
The Treaty of Berlin 1878 explicitly divided the Balkans into spheres of influence between A-H and Russia - Serbia was attached politically and economically to A-H. It is my understanding the Russians in 1904 sponsored secret military convections between Serbia and Bulgaria - a breach of its undertakings in the aforementioned Treaty. What you are saying is the Russians were openly flouting those breaches.
It could have acted faster and handed the world a fait accompli that no one was going to go to war over (but fucked that option up)
True that.
It could have framed it's ultimatum demands in such a way that they could have be met and satisfaction given/extracted, and not be about the most transparent looking for rejection excuse for war ever (the Serbs actually agreed all but one demand, but no that's not good enough no choice but war!)
The mischief being, without that one demand, the balance of the undertakings could not be enforced. Both Serbia and Russia had form in saying one thing and doing another. Even Wilhelm who is cited as approving the Serbian response, suggested territory would need to be taken because Serbia could not be trusted.
it could have agreed to international arbitration (but didn't like that idea thinking it wouldn't get a free hand). This was the big one for me there were international attempts to do this right up until the eleventh hour but both AH and Germany said no, why say no when general war is looming?
The Russians and French made it perfectly clear Serbia would not be held accountable in any circumstances and went so far as to mock the A-H representative in Moscow.
France's "military leaders" or rather leader in the military were busy trying to persuade it's political leader to allow it extend the draft from 1 year to 2 years. France political leaders were more worried about a militarily coup and trying to curtail the size and power of the standing army. All that meant that the France military plan was basically get hit by a invasion take the blow and then mobilise the invader out the country. No one if seriously thinking in terms of taking back A-L.
My understanding is the French draft was increased to 3 years around 1912. Joffre was appointed around the same time by the French Political leaders, explicitly on the basis of his offensive doctrines, which were swiftly implemented. Joffre was given broader powers and influences than his predecessors, aside from the discretion to breech Belgium neutrality. The Franco-Russian
defence agreement evolved into co-ordinated offensives against Germany within +15 days.
I agree once mobilisation starts it would take a miracle to stop conflict but Russia are mobilising in response to AH's actions in Serbia. The French mobilise at the same time as Germany, it's just their mobilisation plans dont involve going hell for leather into Germany (nor that Germany can sit back for the reasons you say)
I believe the Russian 'premobilisation' started before A-H - don't ask me the difference.
What really doesn't help is Germany describing the treaty of London as "just a piece of paper" and hoping Britain can't get there quickly enough to make a difference
My understanding is the Treaty of London was non-prescriptive on either the timing or how the signatories were expected to protect Belgium territory, but don't expect me to defend the German invasion of Belgium.
So Ok why didn't Germany break it treaty with AH then? I mean your right but this point only get brought up for why the entente member honoured their treaties but never the CP. It basically amounts to 'why din't the entente just let the CP do what they want.
...
Only as above why does Germany think this treaty is so weak, but somehow it's own treaty with AH must be upheld at all costs?
One of the reasons A-H felt compelled to act was German support in recent times had become somewhat fickle. Russian blank cheques had been raining on the Balkans for some time, but a German blank cheque was something rare and had to be spent. As an aside, the Germans expected the cheque to be used for groceries, not a farm.