How Avoidable was WWI?

do me a favour Serbia (pop 4.6m) in 1914 is going to destroy the Austro-Hungarian empire?!
In 1904 Black Hand successfully killed the King and Queen,and toppled the pro Austrian government in Serbia. Maybe they thought they could go bigger, and keep killing Royals in A-H
 
No, Hartwig stopped before the "go kill the crown prince part".
what you mean he wasn't saying to the Serbians do what you like and we'll back you no matter what?


And the situation was more akin to: AH threatens to invade you after an organiztaion headed by high ranking officers of your military, armed from serbian army depots and realizing a plan made by said officers assasinates the Austrian crown prince.
Are you saying that there was no ultimatum, no response from Serbia, Kaiser Wilhelm thinking that the Serbian response was reasonable enough to head off war?

was under austrian occupation since 1878. And maybe You should read up on the annexation crisis as you seem to lack a lot of facts (the other option is that you are willfully ignorant and arguing in bad faith). A pointer: what kicked off the crisis was Russia going back on the agreement it made with AH. Without it wouldn't have become a crisis. Also im pretty interested in what excuses you will make on the part of Serbia this time - meaning them mobilising and trheatening AH with war.
Pot and kettle much

BH was given to AH to temporally administer, it was still part of the Ottoman empire in fact, but AH saw it's opportunity in 1908.



Its not like they used terrorist tactics for years in Ottoman Macedonia and started to do the same after they acquired that in Austria. Oh wait... But yes it wasnt the Taliban. this was a completly different terrorist state.
And again Serbia =/= the Black hand. look I know your not going concede this point because your entire argument hangs on Serbia being a carton villain but you repeating it doesn't make it true

And of course AH were fine with Serbian tactics against the Turks, including the uprisings in 1870's, of course it's a different matter when it against your empire


The only think preventing Serbia = Black hand was active Russian intervention. Thanks to that it was only a big chunk of the Serbian military that equaled the black hand - with the rest together with big part of the population mostly sympathetic.
Hang on, this is the same Russia you just said was giving the Black hand carte blanche for terrorism with unrestricted support.

Also you get why chunks of the Serbian population (and other population in the area) were sympathetic? Do you think just possibly it might have had something to do with AH policy in the area?


If the only reaction Austria is allowed to give to terrorist attack on its territory is sit back and cry for the international community to do something - which even if they do will most likely be some ineffective gesture - and the terrorist attacks continue it would have slowly led to the disintegration of the State. If the state cant even protect its own people - and doesnt even try to - whats the point for it?
Oh come off it, the black hand was no more gong to destroy AH than the IRA were able to destroy the UK. Maybe just maybe AH foreign policy in the area (to grab as much of it as possible) might just have had repercussions when it came to growing Slavic nationalism continuing to build up now that they weren't Ottoman empire territory.
 
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But seemed to imply Serbia had a special case to interfere in a foreign nation’s business.
No I said:

"You get that AH had just launched a land grab BH right? You get that the annexation crisis was caused by AH? "

But actually given the geography of the area and the recent history, yes AH was doing this with an eye too Serbia


What’s this Serbian nationalist nonsense? “Far more connected”? What the hell does that mean?
Oh please stop clutching the pearls, you telling me you think AH has more in common culturally and ethnically with BH than Serbia does? BH was made up of predominately Bosnian Muslims (who didn't generally want to leave the Ottoman empire / be part of the AH empire, Croats who were initially fine with the annexation because they thought BH would be combined with Croatia (but then got pissed when that didn't happen) and the Serbs in the area.


By grabbed it, do you mean occupied it in accordance to agreements made with Russia beforehand and later signed off on by every major power in Europe?
Half the great powers had a fit and retroactively had to have their feathers smoothed.



The annexation and Bulgarian declaration were viewed as violations of the Treaty of Berlin. France, Britain, Russia and Italy therefore were in favor of a conference to consider the matter. German opposition and complex diplomatic maneuvering as to the location, nature and preconditions of the conference delayed and ultimately scuttled it.[25] Instead, the Powers reached agreement on amendments to the Treaty through consultations between capitals.
Italy expected compensations in the areas of "Italia Irredenta" ruled by Austria-Hungary in exchange for its recognition of the annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, as was agreed upon in the Triple Alliance treaties with Austria-Hungary. However this did not happen and this became one of the reasons for Italy to break its alliance with Austria-Hungary in 1915.[26] The mutual compensation clause was article 7 of the 1909 and of 5 December 1912 versions of the same treaty:

However, if, in the course of events, the maintenance of the status quo in the regions of the Balkans or of the Ottoman coasts and islands in the Adriatic and in the Aegean Sea should become impossible, and if, whether in consequence of the action of a third Power or otherwise, Austria-Hungary or Italy should find themselves under the necessity of modifying it by a temporary or permanent occupation on their part, this occupation shall take place only after a previous agreement between the two Powers, based upon the principle of a reciprocal compensation for every advantage, territorial or other, which each of them might obtain beyond the present status quo, and giving satisfaction to the interests and well founded claims of the two Parties.[27]



Didn’t rewrite it on their own though, did they?
See above
 
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Though Poles had been killing Russian officials long before 1900, to full bore revolts, in 1830 and 1863.
That wasn't going on in Austrian areas.

I think the Poles, Ukrainians and even Ruthenians had more to do with it, that sinister Austrian agents stirring up trouble for Russians
Oh I agree, It's just AH* seemed happy with and even to support such things going on in other areas, but apparently it's the worst thing ever to ever happen when it happen to them and those supporting it are the worst ever.


Ultimately the point here is that when you are an empire expanding your territory it's not that unusual for those in that area to fight back in a variety of unpleasant ways.

So don't get me wrong I'm not a big fan of Serbia in general here (their own plans for how the Balkans should be aren't all sunshine and rainbows), and the black hand were nationalist fanatics. But I can see why both groups are looking at AH with increasing alarm.

But AH was fine with nationalist / pan-slavic Serbs slitting throats in the 1870's when it was Turkish throats being slit

and they were happy with Serbia when it looks like Serbia was going to be their ally prior to the pro-AH royal family being axed in favor of the Pro-Russian one

But when AH decides it's going to have proper go at consolidating into Balkans it somehow acts surprised when Serbian nationalism / pan-slavism bites it in the ass? And somehow when it happens to them it's inherently far worse than when it happens to everyone else?



*or since there's no requirement on AH to be even handed when it comes to itself and others, rather those who look to justify AH's actions
 
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A fairly respectable case can be made for Ireland (pop 4.4m in 1914) being responsible for the demise of the rather larger British Empire.
heh I rather think there was many other relevent factors, and dissimilarities between the the Balkans & AH empire and Ireland & British empire ;) !
 
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In 1904 Black Hand successfully killed the King and Queen,and toppled the pro Austrian government in Serbia. Maybe they thought they could go bigger, and keep killing Royals in A-H
They were a powerful faction in Serbia at the time, they weren't ever a powerful faction in the AH empire.

or put it another way there's a reason why they waited for FF to go to Sarajevo! (and i think we all know how lucky they got that day :confused:!)
 
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But when AH decides it's going to have proper go at consolidating into Balkans it somehow act surprised when Serbian nationalism / pan slavism bites it in the ass?
Serbs were mad that B-H didn't become part of Greater Serbia, and they didn't care what the Muslims or Croat population wanted, let alone the Austrians.
 
Serbs were mad that B-H didn't become part of Greater Serbia, and they didn't care what the Muslims or Croat population wanted, let alone the Austrians.
True* but by that standard at least Serbs made a significant proportion of the BH population. AH wanted BH to become part of greater AH and didn't care what the Muslims, Croats or Serbs in BH wanted (not too many Austro-Hungarians other than in military garrisons of course).

Basically if we going to go with that as a measure of who was most right then AH is still wrong!

But pan-slavism is a thing (even if it's also at times a Russian foreign policy tool), and while the AH empire felt it was only right and proper that it's boundaries would expand to include what used to be within Ottoman boundaries. But this is the turn of the C20th not the turn of the C18th, and societies have changed and as I said earlier there are other options than either being part of the AH Empire or part of the Ottoman Empire.


*and the BH Croats wanted BH to be part of a greater Croatia, The BH Muslims didn't really want to leave the Ottoman Empire / become part foe AH Empire etc, etc Part of the problem here being that due to basically being within 50 years post colonial territories, lines on maps and groups of people don't actually line nicely up!



EDIT however while I agree that was definitely one reason why Serbia wasn't happy, there were others:



It doesn't take a genius to figure out why Serbia in it's current anti AH kick has other issues with AH taking over BH other than just it wanted to have BH itself
 
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Oh please stop clutching the pearls, you telling me you think AH has more in common culturally and ethnically with BH than Serbia does? BH was made up of predominately Bosnian Muslims (who didn't generally want to leave the Ottoman empire / be part of the AH empire, Croats who were initially fine with the annexation because they thought BH would be combined with Croatia (but then got pissed when that didn't happen) and the Serbs in the area.
Nope, I’m out.
 
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