Dave Shoup
Banned
Historically, there were six major European nations that maintained neutrality for much or all of the Second World War. The politics for all six were varied, but generally came down to the realities that they were not attacked by a larger neighbor, and their neutrality was otherwise more valuable to one or both sides than belligerency would have been ... that being said, the political and strategic realities of the conflict, from 1939-45, were such that multiple nations that had maintained neutrality throughout the Great War and would have been content to stay out became active combatants (Norway, the Netherlands, etc.), and others that began the war as active members of one alliance switched and continued to fight (Finland, Italy) as a member - de facto if not de jure - of another.
To bring a potential point of departure into focus, consider the reality that by the end of 1942, the Axis declarations of war had brought the US into the war in a huge way, as demonstrated by TORCH, which came in roughly the same period as the German defeat at Stalingrad. These events, coupled with the US and Allied counteroffensives in the Pacific, made clear the tide was turning.
So with a nod toward the geopolitical historical realities by early 1943, what could have brought the neutrals to consider entering the conflict, and - realistically - what they might have brought to the fray?
It seems unlikely that Franco's Spain, which guarded its neutrality quite strongly, would have ever officially gone to war. Same for Inönü's Turkey, certainly not any earlier than historically, in Turkey's case, to qualify joining the UN. Sweden was surrounded by Axis territory, so absent JUPITER or something like it, hard to see the Swedes entering the war. Switzerland after mid-1944 would have had a supply line to the Allies, but still would have been vulnerable to Germany from north, south, and east...
So this leads to the two remaining European neutrals with Atlantic coastlines, Eire and Portugal. Both were very careful about neutrality during WW II, but, historically, both nations were also friendly toward the Allies.
Tens of thousands of Irish citizens volunteered to fight in the British armed forces between 1939 and 1945 (a common estimate is 50,000, including as many as 5,000 men who left the Irish military for the British armed forces) and hundreds of thousands of Irish citizens worked in Britain's war economy (a common estimate is as many as 200,000). The politics in Ireland would have been very challenging, but with American encouragement, it's not beyond the realm of possibility - presumably any actual "Irish" contingent (beyond the volunteers mentioned above) - would have served under US command, equipped and sustained as an Allied formation within the 12th or 6th army groups, not unlike the French and Belgian forces that did so historically.
To step from the political to the military, the Irish forces during the Emergency increased to 40,000 on active service and another 100,000 in the reserves; so if 10 percent were willing to volunteer for active service overseas, that's 4,000 men; along with the estimate of 5,000 in British service, call it 9,000 total - presume a 100 percent replacement pool, cut that in half, so 4,500, which is the equivalent (roughly) of a US Army infantry regimental combat team or a British/Commonwealth brigade group.
Portugal maintained its neutrality throughout the war, but Portuguese personnel "unofficially" resisted the Japanese in Timor in 1942 and in August, 1943, Portugal opened the Azores to the Allies, which had a significant effect on the Atlantic campaign. Given that, if - and its a large if, but still - the Portuguese enter the war as an active belligerent, Portugal brings some resources into play.
The Portuguese had, after all, committed a force of two infantry divisions to serve under British command on the Western Front in 1917-18, as well as a separate artillery unit under French command. By 1943, the Portuguese had deployed a roughly 35,000-strong force to the Azores, mostly Army along with air and naval elements. The Portuguese Navy, for that matter, was a reasonably-sized force, with five modern destroyers, six modern sloops, and three modern submarines, all built in Britain or Portugal to British interwar designs in the 1930s, plus various older vessels and extemporized patrol and mine warfare vessels.
So, although two divisions is probably a stretch, perhaps an infantry brigade group and an aviation squadron, both for service under British command in northwestern Europe, along with a dozen or so escorts with the RN?
So an Irish infantry RCT in the 12th Army Group, and a Portuguese infantry brigade group in the 21st Army Group in 1944-45?
Thoughts?
To bring a potential point of departure into focus, consider the reality that by the end of 1942, the Axis declarations of war had brought the US into the war in a huge way, as demonstrated by TORCH, which came in roughly the same period as the German defeat at Stalingrad. These events, coupled with the US and Allied counteroffensives in the Pacific, made clear the tide was turning.
So with a nod toward the geopolitical historical realities by early 1943, what could have brought the neutrals to consider entering the conflict, and - realistically - what they might have brought to the fray?
It seems unlikely that Franco's Spain, which guarded its neutrality quite strongly, would have ever officially gone to war. Same for Inönü's Turkey, certainly not any earlier than historically, in Turkey's case, to qualify joining the UN. Sweden was surrounded by Axis territory, so absent JUPITER or something like it, hard to see the Swedes entering the war. Switzerland after mid-1944 would have had a supply line to the Allies, but still would have been vulnerable to Germany from north, south, and east...
So this leads to the two remaining European neutrals with Atlantic coastlines, Eire and Portugal. Both were very careful about neutrality during WW II, but, historically, both nations were also friendly toward the Allies.
Tens of thousands of Irish citizens volunteered to fight in the British armed forces between 1939 and 1945 (a common estimate is 50,000, including as many as 5,000 men who left the Irish military for the British armed forces) and hundreds of thousands of Irish citizens worked in Britain's war economy (a common estimate is as many as 200,000). The politics in Ireland would have been very challenging, but with American encouragement, it's not beyond the realm of possibility - presumably any actual "Irish" contingent (beyond the volunteers mentioned above) - would have served under US command, equipped and sustained as an Allied formation within the 12th or 6th army groups, not unlike the French and Belgian forces that did so historically.
To step from the political to the military, the Irish forces during the Emergency increased to 40,000 on active service and another 100,000 in the reserves; so if 10 percent were willing to volunteer for active service overseas, that's 4,000 men; along with the estimate of 5,000 in British service, call it 9,000 total - presume a 100 percent replacement pool, cut that in half, so 4,500, which is the equivalent (roughly) of a US Army infantry regimental combat team or a British/Commonwealth brigade group.
Portugal maintained its neutrality throughout the war, but Portuguese personnel "unofficially" resisted the Japanese in Timor in 1942 and in August, 1943, Portugal opened the Azores to the Allies, which had a significant effect on the Atlantic campaign. Given that, if - and its a large if, but still - the Portuguese enter the war as an active belligerent, Portugal brings some resources into play.
The Portuguese had, after all, committed a force of two infantry divisions to serve under British command on the Western Front in 1917-18, as well as a separate artillery unit under French command. By 1943, the Portuguese had deployed a roughly 35,000-strong force to the Azores, mostly Army along with air and naval elements. The Portuguese Navy, for that matter, was a reasonably-sized force, with five modern destroyers, six modern sloops, and three modern submarines, all built in Britain or Portugal to British interwar designs in the 1930s, plus various older vessels and extemporized patrol and mine warfare vessels.
So, although two divisions is probably a stretch, perhaps an infantry brigade group and an aviation squadron, both for service under British command in northwestern Europe, along with a dozen or so escorts with the RN?
So an Irish infantry RCT in the 12th Army Group, and a Portuguese infantry brigade group in the 21st Army Group in 1944-45?
Thoughts?
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