Well, the first scenario is basically what I described in my writing above. Russia is really trashed by a very strong German Empire and it's new allies in thar description and then is basically made into various "Congo Free State" like fiefdoms. Anyways it's all up there, and I'm starting to think you didn't read it, or at least not carefully, as I pretty much described everything about it there. Also, I have to say I'm not really receptive to the whole "Mongols " thing as although they are Asian , they aren't Chinese, they're Mongolian.
I looked at that German idea. In the XIX it is not unrealistic and I’m not discussing XX century options, period. As for the Mongols, you clearly did not pay attention to what is written. Khubilai was the Great Khan but also an Emperor of China and in what I wrote the administrators, etc. are Chinese: the Mongols did not have them even in OTL and used the Chinese and Muslims.