So, what would it take for China to have a lot of cultural, ethnic, political, economic, etc, influence in Russia west of the Urals. And what would the maximum amount of Chinese influence that could occur in Russia. Would having Western Russia being as Chinese as much as the South West US is Hispanic by 2032 be too much to ask?
Highest amount of Chinese influence in Western Russia post-1800 possible?
- Thread starter NiGHTS
- Start date
pre 1900 - Chinese influence is going to be limited to the Chinese sphere areas. however tales from the east will move west.
your biggest problem is that the seat of power is in the west and looks to the west not the east ( or south and east in this case )
There is a lot of nothing in between even the greatest extent of Chinese borders and Moscow.
So your best bet would be to have the Khanate continue to some degree or for longer and remain more mongol than turkic. After the Slavs threw off the Golden Yoke and Christianized eastern influence was pretty much over after Peter Alexeyevich came to power pushing the byzantine practices and eastern connections on the back burner in order to modernize and compete with the threats from neighbors that were much closer such as Sweden and Poland.
Chinese influence was greatest in southern central to eastern Russian regions. By the time you get to Perm and the Kama river you are just to far away pre modern travel to have a great influence. Western Russia is highly Slavic and urlic to the north blending into Baltic and western Slavic cultures the further west you go. Central Russia is highly turkic.
to the south you turn from Russian Slavic to Ukrainian Slavic culture to turkic mixed with Balkan cultures.
To the east you go from Russian to turkic, Persian, Armenian and Mongolian.
For Chinese influence to spread they would need to go through Persian and turkic groups first.
China and Russia were both vast nations. Russia more heavily focused in the west with its capital at St Petersburg and China to the far east in Beijing.
your biggest problem is that the seat of power is in the west and looks to the west not the east ( or south and east in this case )
There is a lot of nothing in between even the greatest extent of Chinese borders and Moscow.
So your best bet would be to have the Khanate continue to some degree or for longer and remain more mongol than turkic. After the Slavs threw off the Golden Yoke and Christianized eastern influence was pretty much over after Peter Alexeyevich came to power pushing the byzantine practices and eastern connections on the back burner in order to modernize and compete with the threats from neighbors that were much closer such as Sweden and Poland.
Chinese influence was greatest in southern central to eastern Russian regions. By the time you get to Perm and the Kama river you are just to far away pre modern travel to have a great influence. Western Russia is highly Slavic and urlic to the north blending into Baltic and western Slavic cultures the further west you go. Central Russia is highly turkic.
to the south you turn from Russian Slavic to Ukrainian Slavic culture to turkic mixed with Balkan cultures.
To the east you go from Russian to turkic, Persian, Armenian and Mongolian.
For Chinese influence to spread they would need to go through Persian and turkic groups first.
China and Russia were both vast nations. Russia more heavily focused in the west with its capital at St Petersburg and China to the far east in Beijing.
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Okay, but what if Russia gets influenced by China by having China setting up base in Russia after it has had a crippling defeat. I'll put this admittedly simplistic idea as follows.
Due to some POD divergences, Germany forms with Austria as apart of it in 1848. Germany then goes on to keep an alliance with Russia that it subsequently forms. Later, Germany gets into a war France, Great Britain, and Italy that sees it become the dominant power in Western Europe. The other three nations are no longer great powers. Germany was able to win this war thanks to the food and oil that it gained from Russia. Germany expands it's already existing colonial empire in Africa and Asia and gains lots of resources there. It ends up with the world's largest navy that helps to guard and deliver many resources to the metro-pole. But, German leaders come to see Russia as a final threat to Germany. This is because they fear how powerful Russia would be if allowed to fully industrialize. So, they end up funding ethnic rebellions throughout the Russian Empire that eventually leads to Russia accusing Germany of doing this, which they are, and going to war over it. Germany loses access to Russian resources, but is able to sustain itself through overseas trade from the Americas and from it's own vast colonial empire. They have also been funding China's industrialization, so as to open a two front war with Russia that will force it to have to divert it's troops. Americans have also been giving lots of investment into China because they see the chance to make a lot of money from it.
This second World War ends in total Russian defeat, with Germany and China forcing the nation to balkanize, even in Western Russia, which becomes a brutal nightmare as German nobility are giving their own private fiefdoms to rule over. China gains control over Siberia and Central Asia, which are left as puppet states. That will be explored later.
They also gain territories that used to be Chinese in OTL. Basically the bottom plus some other territories, such as Outer Manchuria and a few others.
German control in Western Russia is very brutal. There's no Genocide, but German troops are willing to kill lots of Russians to make a point against rebellion. Famines, death squads, and firebombing of cities, are commonly used to make an example out to other Russians throughout the fiefdoms. Ukrainians, Belorussians, Finns, Baltics, Caucasians, and other ethnicities don't get these since their regimes are willing to work with the Germans under the idea that the Germans came to liberate them from the Russian yolk.
Meanwhile, China, due to their parts of Russia being less populated, just set up vassal states and as it is a Republican nation, there aren't necessary any nobility to give plots of land over to. At most, it they just become places for large Chinese corporations to have pull in. This means that Siberians and Central Asians get lots of Chinese products. China later decides to built an alt version of the Belt and Road project, and so Siberian city-states, though those have lots of land, and Central Asia get heavy investment into their infrastructure and Chinese works arrive to set up businesses in those areas. The Chinese language becomes a popular thing to learn in those areas, with local governments being encouraged to teach it. It's relatively easy, as lots of Chinese cultural programs are distributed in those regions. China has also set up lots of military bases in those regions similar to how the US did in Europe. Due to the cultural barriers being gradually broken down, there are more and more intercultural marriages between the locals and the Chinese. There is some resentment for this for from the locals, but not much can be done by them as ultimately, China is in charge, and most people are okay with it(not really happy, but mostly apathetic, as it's not like they can strike out on their own, and it's not like China is that bad a ruler).
Meanwhile, back in Western Russia, Germany has begun to regret it's part in helping China to industrialize as now Chinese guns are being distributed throughout it's colonial empire. There's already a sort of Cold War that has begun between the superpowers of China and Germany, and China is doing a lot on it's part of the Cold War by aiding rebellions in territories controlled by Germany. It's not hard to start up rebellions, as Germany is a pretty vicious colonial master as it uses the native populations to produce lots of luxuries for the German people, and it does this by forcing them to work in horrendous sweatshops.
Throughout this Cold War, Germany has been spending a lot of it's money on trying to preserve this power for itself, but it's quite difficult as it has what are basically a dozen Vietnam Wars across Africa and Asia. Over time, spreading from East to West, Germany loses each of it's colonies, including what it has in Western Russia. In that area, there are a bunch of calls for unification, and they are becoming harder to put down thanks to Chinese funding of terrorists. Eventually, the German Army is forced to leave. But before they do, they leave Western Russia with a lot of destruction, both industrial and agricultural, and a famine ensues. With it's bases east of the Ural and in Central Asia, China is able to come and aid in the rebuilding of Western Russia.
Western Russia is able to reunify, but only in the mostly Russian areas, as everywhere else that is non-Russian majority are still willing allies for Germany, and there aren't really any desires to trade a German master for a Chinese one, seeing as how they were treated much better under the Germans, than they were under the Russsians. Meanwhile, unification with Siberia is a complicated issue, as although many Siberians speak Russian, they have been heavily sinicized over the decades. And unification in Western Russia is already a big issue, as much of the infrastructure is directed toward bringing resources towards Germany rather than sharing it among each other. For now, China essentially gives West Russia a Marshall Plan-esque treatment, as the story that occurred in Siberia and Central Asia, now occurs in Western Russia, but it's less bittersweet( if you can call the other one that) as a common image is a Chinese nurse sharing Chinese snacks with West Russian children who had spent much of their lives working in a factories. Think the Americans in Europe and Japan after World War 2 for this image. After many, many years, West Russia is rebuilt, though a great loss of Russian cultural heritage has been lost, but in it's place is a hybird of Chinese and Russian culture. Russia is now wholly within the Chinese sphere of influence and considers itself more Asian than European. It's not uncommon to see Russians with Chinese ethnic features, though a lot of people still look like how most Russian did nearly a century ago. The relation between Russia and China is now similar to the one that OTL America has with Japan and South Korea, if even closer than that due to lots of migration from China to Russia, along with even more cultural influence.
Okay, so this is my very simplistic vision for having China gain lots of influence in Russia. What do you, and others think?
I would think that Russia proper that lost lots of land to an aggressive china wouldn't be happy with china and would sink into xenophobia. western CORE Russia would remain utterly Russian. now depending on how the new masters treat their new found satellites, you could have those regions or groups possibly swing back towards Russian influence. in the east there is already mongol and Chinese influence, if china is basically governing the area then of course eastern former Russian possessions would fall sway to Chinese influence. but in the west it would remain highly Russian and in the south / south central more turkic and tatar. and I don't see germany winning world war II
better point of divergence would be World War 1 .. then the revolution and civil war - with china jumping in for spoils .. but still might need an earlier pod to make china more self sufficient
better point of divergence would be World War 1 .. then the revolution and civil war - with china jumping in for spoils .. but still might need an earlier pod to make china more self sufficient
Why would a better point of divergence be World War 1, when that's later than my original point of divergence? And honestly, it's hard to say to whom Russia loses more land to. Most of this world's version of world war 2 involves Germany doing the heavy lifting from my point of view. I mean, China does do quite a bit of stuff in Central Asia, and Outer Manchuria, but the most intense fighting is on Russia's western front, where it's not just the Germans, but also revolting ethnicities such as the Urkranians and etc. After the war, most of the damage to Russia is in the West, while past the Ural Mountains, I imagine that all that since all there is are very sparse populations of Russians,
I imagine, that most will end up focused on what are basically city-states what happen to have a lot of land around them. Also, there really won't be a Russia to swing back to as Germany will really make Western Russia suffer hell under it's rule. It won't be like Generalplan Ost, but it will be fairly similar. Think the Leopold's rule in Congo, but in multiple areas across Western Russia, under various German rulers. Germany's willing to kill a LOT of Russians in order to pacify the area, as the whole point of this Alt-WW2 would be to ensure German dominance in the European subcontinent. They already secured the Western half in an Alt-WW1, and so now they sought to finish the job in an Alt-WW2.
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Short of a comprehensive genocide that would leave Western Russia pretty much free of a population with no "Western" entity to fill the vacuum there is no plausible option.
A rather unrealistic scenario is a surviving intact Mongolian Empire at its greatest extent (at which point in OTL it mostly but not ceased to be a single entity). There is no "Golden Horde", Ilkanate, Chagatai Ulus, etc. No vassal Russian princes either. Just a single empire ruled by the Great Khan who also happens to be an Emperor of China. The subject territories are administered not by the Genghisid princes but by the bureaucrats appointed by the Great Khan/Emperor and the imperial policy is to send the foreigners to minimize probability of the local governors getting too much power (and the ideas regarding improving their status). The same goes for the troops garrisoned all over Empire. Troops from Russian territories are serving in China (*) and the CA and Chinese contingents garrisoned in Russia. The same goes for the regional administrators (baskaks). While they are foreigners, they do need a lot of a local personnel both administrative and military to act as the translators, judges, low level administrators, and police/tax collector personnel (for most of these functions you need to know local language, customs and geography). Taking into an account that in the XIII China was the most advanced part of the Mongolian empire, the Chinese administrators and engineers are all over it (there is a need of extensive construction projects all over the empire). The same goes for the trade within empire: the merchants (and artisans) from China and the CA are all over the empire and quite a few of them are settling in Russia. With the empire surviving for many centuries, there is plenty of Chinese influence (and Chinese settlers) all over Empire including the Russian territories.
Of course, the chance for that empire to survive for many centuries is too close to zero to take it seriously and it would also require a serious change in the basics of the state created by Genghis and in the cultural (and religious) attitudes of the people populating such an empire. I'd asses its chance for a prolonged survival as close to zero.
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(*) Khubilay had a tumen of those, as a part of his Guards corps, settled near Khanbalik and recruitment from the conquered territories was a common Mongolian practice.
(a) In the mid-1800s it would require the ASBs and (b) in the same post you had been talking about WW2 (which is post 1900 even if WWI is somehow skipped). So perhaps I got confused about what is your idea and how does it fit within "pre-1900" framework.
I said an alternate world war 2. Though, I agree on the ASB part, and I am okay with that. I actually plan on fleshing out those ideas and using them to build my own setting to write fiction in. I'm thinking of making it a place to put AU fanfiction as well. Of course, this will be in the ASB forum.(a) In the mid-1800s it would require the ASBs and (b) in the same post you had been talking about WW2 (which is post 1900 even if WWI is somehow skipped). So perhaps I got confused about what is your idea and how does it fit within "pre-1900" framework.
RousseauX
Donor
Starting from today if China continues to rise and Russia continues to decline while being ardently anti-EU/US western Russia might indeed become a Chinese sphere of influence by 2060 or so
that being said massive immigration is probably out since in that scenario China will be prosperous enough and Russia poor enough that emigration to Russia on massive scales is probably out
Instead of a Chinese conquering Russia, I think another route is to have a Russian state conquer China, and thus bring Chinese people into its population. Let's say the Qing Dynasty has a REALLY bad run of the 1800s, and then maybe some British-backed government takes power south of the Huai River while everything north of it is either Russian territory or a pro-Russian warlord clique nominally headed by the Qing Emperor but really run out of the Russian Legation in Beijing. Now, with the Russian tsar being a kind of dual sovereign over two great civilizations, there may be some kind of craze for Chinese products and fashions among the Russian aristocrats, a bit like how Mughal architecture came to be favored by British colonials as far away as Malaysia. Right away you have a chance for soft power to be exerted from the bottom up.
With trade barriers between Russia and China (especially outlying Chinese lands like Outer Mongolia, which will likely be annexed directly to Russia) you have more of a chance for Chinese migrants to move to Siberia and, upon realizing there's not much to do there, to Western Russia. There, they can probably become a local minor trading/retailing groups. Not as dominant in their environment as Chinese in Southeast Asia, but still pretty significant.
And then just have this pattern continue. Chinese food could become as influential in Russia as Mexican food in the Southwest, Chinese-majority neighborhoods are electing Chinese politicians to mayorships and provincial legislatures, etc. There's the influence categories, but the amount of population you're suggesting may not be feasible.
My point is that there are two main scenario in which such a thing could be possible. One is a complete destruction of the Russian state or at least its depopulation in which demographic vacuum could be filled by the Chinese. This may happen in the future but hardly was realistic in post-1900 world and, anyway, for that we are in a wrong forum.
Another option is in the past when there is no meaningful “Russian State” and no clearly recognized idea of the national unity. The best option, IMO, would be an ‘improved’ Mongolian empire - scenario requires a lot of internal changes but does not involve any fantastic conquests and, anyway, in OTL there were some elements needed for your schema.
An idea of a closer Russian-Chinese relations in the XVII is tempting but there really was a scope of the trade on both sides in the terms of the merchandise items. Russia was exporting furs, iron, cloth. China - silk, tea, gold. Chinese were not interested in traveling abroad and, IIRC, most of the trade was happening in few border towns. Chinese culture in general, and especially Chinese style of administration were unacceptable for the XVII century Russia: promotions by merit were incompatible with the appointments by ancestry. Not to mention that by the time of Tsar Alexey Tsardom started looking to the West for the expertise: wars of the late XVI - early XVII proved beyond the reasonable doubt a need of the Western expertise in the military issues (including production of weapons) and what China had by that time was by no measure a meaningful substitute.
Hmm. Could you have a more internationally-focused USSR (instead of "socialism in one nation" stuff) incorporate China directly? Then you'd be left with a large multiethnic socialist union in which the Chinese have a big say, and Chinese migration to the west would be possible.
I dunno if you can get Chinese peoples like Latinos in the Southern US because the distance is a bit far. But I can imagine Chinese culture and language spreading to Western Russia, through trade and cultural exchange, if China was able to maintain its dominion of Central Asia. Of course they would also need to compete with Islam and Orthodoxy
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Well, the first scenario is basically what I described in my writing above. Russia is really trashed by a very strong German Empire and it's new allies in thar description and then is basically made into various "Congo Free State" like fiefdoms. Anyways it's all up there, and I'm starting to think you didn't read it, or at least not carefully, as I pretty much described everything about it there. Also, I have to say I'm not really receptive to the whole "Mongols " thing as although they are Asian , they aren't Chinese, they're Mongolian.
I guess. I mean I'm not really receptive to the whole idea Of cultural transfusion by Russia conquering or being the dominant power over China , as it feels to cliche. I have seen plenty of maps and have heard of enough timelines in which China gets the short hand of the stick , so I'd rather go forward with my ASB idea of a Republican China basically being the America to an Alternate Russia's Germany/ Japan. It's just an author appeal of mine to have a less oppressive , more or less, and more mighty Republic of China. China being a monarchy or being ripped apart by everyone else just seems so boring to me, that even if I have to resign myself to the ASB forum, I would like to create a timeline where the ROC succeeds. It's just more appealing to me.