Germany neither goes east OR west 1914

[Catspoke]

What if Germany adopted a completely defensive strategy in 1914....

In this TL the Germans mobilize in response to the Russians, but wait on the defensive, not declaring war on anybody until the Russians actually cross the border into Austria.

The Germans tell the Austrians to focus on beating the Serbians (i.e. keep the second army there) and form up strictly on the defensive against the Russians (well back from the frontier).

In this TL, the strong German 1st army is in East Prussia, 8th army in Silesia. 2-7th are still in the west, poised on the border to defend the German iron fields as much as possible ahead of the fortress line.

In this TL, where war is delayed from days to weeks vs OTL, the German Navy completely mobilizes its older ships, reservists are called into the colonies world wide, merchant raiders are fitted out, supplies are shipped to the colonies and strategic supplies are imported while possible.

How would war play out? (or does the war even happen)

(How could this occur: Maybe The Kaiser chickens out at the though of Britain coming in, Moltke plays along, but doesn't want to risk pulling much of the western army east. OR The Germans just realize that pre war their OTL war plans are unworkable, not likely to win, but don't really come up with a better idea but playing defense by 1914)

 

[Gannt the chartist]

What if Germany adopted a completely defensive strategy in 1914....

In this TL the Germans mobilize in response to the Russians, but wait on the defensive, not declaring war on anybody until the Russians actually cross the border into Austria.

The Germans tell the Austrians to focus on beating the Serbians (i.e. keep the second army there) and form up strictly on the defensive against the Russians (well back from the frontier).

In this TL, the strong German 1st army is in East Prussia, 8th army in Silesia. 2-7th are still in the west, poised on the border to defend the German iron fields as much as possible ahead of the fortress line.

In this TL, where war is delayed from days to weeks vs OTL, the German Navy completely mobilizes its older ships, reservists are called into the colonies world wide, merchant raiders are fitted out, supplies are shipped to the colonies and strategic supplies are imported while possible.

How would war play out? (or does the war even happen)

(How could this occur: Maybe The Kaiser chickens out at the though of Britain coming in, Moltke plays along, but doesn't want to risk pulling much of the western army east. OR The Germans just realize that pre war their OTL war plans are unworkable, not likely to win, but don't really come up with a better idea but playing defense by 1914)

Based on OTL the Serbs kick nine kinds of crap out of the Austrians who cannot ignore the large Russian army sitting on their borders.

 

[Archibald]

Germany goes South. It won't be the first or last time. (sorry. couldn't resist).

 

[Geon]

Assuming the situation you have here the Germans would have to respond at some point to the Russian attack. The Russians moved both into Germany and Austria after war was declared. So you probably will have to have the Germans take some offensive action at some point there. I could see the Battle of Tannenberg still taking place.

In the West things are a little more tricky. Assuming the Germans do not attack France or Belgium then the French are likely to launch their plans for an offensive into Germany directly. This will most likely fail-miserably. Since Germany didn't invade Belgium there is less likelihood that the UK will get involved. So, the Western Front bogs down fairly quickly. The Germans can concentrate most of their forces in the East to defeat Russia while maintaining just enough in the West to keep the French occupied.

It becomes unlikely that the Ottoman Empire becomes involved because in OTL they were bribed to enter the war to help Austria/Hungary and Germany. Here with Germany concentrating its forces in the East there is less need for them.

A bloody stalemate in France with no British support probably results in the French morale collapsing even faster then it did in OTL. Further the Italians might and I say might be tempted to stay in alliance with the Central Powers on the pretext of grabbing some French territory.

The U.S. never becomes involved because Germany doesn't have to deploy its Navy to begin unrestricted submarine warfare with UK not involved.

Likely the war lasts between two to three years during which time the Russians are pushed back by the Germans out of German territories and into Russia itself and the French Army eventually mutinies resulting in a new French government which is forced to negotiate an armistice with the Germans and the Italians.

 

[TimTurner]

If World War I ends early, when does World War II happen?

 

[TheCataphract]

If World War I ends early, when does World War II happen?

It probably doesn't. Or rather, there would be another war at some point, but the circumstances are so completely different that it is nothing we would recognize as World War Two, if it is even a World War.

 

[TimTurner]

It probably doesn't. Or rather, there would be another war at some point, but the circumstances are so completely different that it is nothing we would recognize as World War Two, if it is even a World War.

I don't mean a world War resembling WWII, just any second world War.

 

[Geon]

If World War I ends early, when does World War II happen?

If there is a World War II it is probably radically different from OTL.

Consider that in the rough draft of a scenario I am proposing Germany would emerge the victor and be able to claim parts of Northern France as her rightful "spoils". France is once more humiliated by Germany and her government falls likely replaced with a socialist/Marxist government by a disgruntled French people led by the French veterans who fought the war. Austria-Hungary likely still collapses. I could see Germany annexing Austria and large portions of the Sudetenland to protect German interests. Germany is now THE major power on the continent.

It is likely you still get a fascist regime in Italy. They were the victors in OTL but still suffered a major economic melt down paving the way for the fascists under Mussolini to take power. However, with Germany the victor in TTL a certain Austrian corporal never comes to power. Likely the Kaiser and his son remain in power, although there is a gradual shifting more and more to a constitutional monarchy.

You definitely have a naval arms race between the UK and Germany as Germany tries to attain at least naval parity with the UK. This will be a source of future tension.

In Russia you likely have the Revolution and Bolshevik takeover take place as in OTL. Given the France slide into a Marxist/socialist government I could even see a Paris/Moscow Axis forming. Although it seems unlikely to us in OTL I could readily see an alliance of the UK, Germany and Italy against the Soviet Union and France. Whether this would erupt into war is up to further discussion.

 

[TimTurner]

A limited World War I ending in January 1917 with a purely defensive German strategy still likely has a surviving A-H . A fascist Italy still likely occurs, in fact it's boosted, because Italy never gets Tyrol. France does likely lose parts of Northern France in any event thanks to German War spoils. Russia might escape Revolution, but looks set for a turbulent 1920s no matter what happens. Neutrals include US, Turkey, and possibly Romania.
Assuming A-H survives long-term, if a future world War occurs, Paris-Moscow looks inevitable. Italy might easily defect to Germany, in utter disappointment over the Allies' failure. Britain can be counted on to fight with France. How the US, Turkey, China, and Japan go determine who wins.

 

[Mackus]

If Germans don't go east nor west, there is no world war. Its just Austro-Serbian war, perhaps Russo-Austrian war.
Germans would have to declare war on Russia/France, and then refuse to wage war. Which is silly.
French and British are in no rush to declare war. They don't want it. Russians aren't in rush to declare war on Germany either, they need to finish their mobilisation first. On Austria, if they know Germans stay neutral, sure, but not on Germany.
If Germans declare war, but do not invade anyone, then Russians enter Prussia weeks later, while better prepared. Even if they lose here as OTL in the north, they'll still maul Austrians in the south. Once they cross Carpathians, Romanians and Italians are gonna want to join in once Russians done all the heavy lifting.
If Germany doesn't declare war, then Austria-Hungary is done for. Russians won't dismantle it completely, but they'll partition claimed territories, and force them to give Czechs autonomy.

 

[Michael B]

If Germans declare war, but do not invade anyone, then Russians enter Prussia weeks later, while better prepared. Even if they lose here as OTL in the north, they'll still maul Austrians in the south. Once they cross Carpathians, Romanians and Italians are gonna want to join in once Russians done all the heavy lifting.
If Germany doesn't declare war, then Austria-Hungary is done for. Russians won't dismantle it completely, but they'll partition claimed territories, and force them to give Czechs autonomy.

The Russians may not invade Prussia, but as you say they would certainly maul the the Austrians. That leaves the Germans in an awkward position. If they continue to do nothing then they are seen as fair weather friends, not the sort you want to be allied to. If they now move, then they are seen as a country who puts their allies in the front line to soften up the enemy, against not the sort you want to be allied to. Either way the A-H Empire bails out to Russian terms this war. In the next war the Germans are on their own.

On the Romanians and Italians joining, you are so cynical. Correct, but still cynical.

 

[UCB79]

Based on OTL the Serbs kick nine kinds of crap out of the Austrians who cannot ignore the large Russian army sitting on their borders.

You would also have to had COMPLETLY
different people leading the German army &
someone- anyone?- else besides Wilhelm I
as Kaiser for this to happen, which I have
to say makes this senario ASB. Why? Because everything I've read re the build-
up to WWI makes it clear that the above-
mentioned people did not even consider
a defensive strategy in the event of war.
The only question was who- & how- they
would attack.

 

[DaveBC]

The problem here is that from a 1914 perspective, sitting and waiting for the enemy to attack is basically insane. It's not just in Germany. Strategic thinking in Europe is roughly analogous to Cold War thinking in the late 1950s/early 1960s before decent second strike options come online.

Absurd as this may sound, you really need post-1914, maybe even post-1918 generals in order to anticipate that offense is not necessarily the best defense. Otherwise they're all petrified that the second guy to mobilize is going to be late off the jump and inevitably destroyed.

Taking that what-if out, presumably the French would not have suffered the same "delusion." Their offense may not go as smoothly, and the trenches end up drawn in different places.

If both sides realize magically in 1914 that they will probably lack the ability to conduct meaningful offensives, and react to that conservatively, then I guess everybody spends the year busily digging trenches a couple hundred yards their side of the border and then just sits there waiting for somebody to invent tanks. But again, this is unlikely. The predominant mentality is that rapid offensives are the key to victory.

 

[Pesterfield]

Are there any potential preWW1 conflicts that could show sitting tight and letting your enemy charge into machine gun fire can be a winning strategy?

 

[Deleted member 97083]

Are there any potential preWW1 conflicts that could show sitting tight and letting your enemy charge into machine gun fire can be a winning strategy?

Didn't the British do that in some places in Africa?

 

[CaliGuy]

It becomes unlikely that the Ottoman Empire becomes involved because in OTL they were bribed to enter the war to help Austria/Hungary and Germany. Here with Germany concentrating its forces in the East there is less need for them.

The Ottomans might still want to reacquire lost territory from Russia, though. Also, an additional ally would still help the Central Powers in this TL even if it wouldn't be as crucial as it was in our TL.

What if Germany adopted a completely defensive strategy in 1914....

In this TL the Germans mobilize in response to the Russians, but wait on the defensive, not declaring war on anybody until the Russians actually cross the border into Austria.

The Germans tell the Austrians to focus on beating the Serbians (i.e. keep the second army there) and form up strictly on the defensive against the Russians (well back from the frontier).

In this TL, the strong German 1st army is in East Prussia, 8th army in Silesia. 2-7th are still in the west, poised on the border to defend the German iron fields as much as possible ahead of the fortress line.

In this TL, where war is delayed from days to weeks vs OTL, the German Navy completely mobilizes its older ships, reservists are called into the colonies world wide, merchant raiders are fitted out, supplies are shipped to the colonies and strategic supplies are imported while possible.

How would war play out? (or does the war even happen)

(How could this occur: Maybe The Kaiser chickens out at the though of Britain coming in, Moltke plays along, but doesn't want to risk pulling much of the western army east. OR The Germans just realize that pre war their OTL war plans are unworkable, not likely to win, but don't really come up with a better idea but playing defense by 1914)

In such a scenario, Germany would certainly benefit--perhaps immensely. After all, the military technology at the start of World War I was suited for defense--not offense.

 

[BooNZ]

What if Germany adopted a completely defensive strategy in 1914....

This is mostly consistent with German counterattack doctrine, using superior mobility to fight decisive battles in close proximately to their own rail heads - for example Battle of Tannenberg

In this TL the Germans mobilize in response to the Russians, but wait on the defensive, not declaring war on anybody until the Russians actually cross the border into Austria.

Russian mobilization, triggers German mobilization, triggers French mobilization - the Germans will almost certainly be on the receiving end of joint French-Russian offensives.

The Germans tell the Austrians to focus on beating the Serbians (i.e. keep the second army there) and form up strictly on the defensive against the Russians (well back from the frontier).

Excellent advice, but I think you are over-estimating the influence the Germans had over Conrad early in the war.

In this TL, the strong German 1st army is in East Prussia, 8th army in Silesia. 2-7th are still in the west, poised on the border to defend the German iron fields as much as possible ahead of the fortress line.

A rather odd deployment if the Germans are adopting a defensive strategy, but it should take 15 days or less to get at least four German armies deployed in the East - per Von Staab

How would war play out? (or does the war even happen)

The outcome is probably similar to the traditional Germans "go east" discussions, with an initial passive deployment that facilitates potentially decisive German counter attacks either on German territory or close to the frontier. In the west the French offensive doctrine dictates they are going to bleed themselves white against entrenched German defenders, while in the east the Germans make even shorter work of the Russian 1st and 2nd armies. If Conrad follows your suggested instructions the Russians will likely retire before inflicting any meaningful defeats on A-H. Russians are forced into an early 'Great Retreat' in 1914 and A-H probably win ugly against Serbia.

(How could this occur: Maybe The Kaiser chickens out at the though of Britain coming in, Moltke plays along, but doesn't want to risk pulling much of the western army east. OR The Germans just realize that pre war their OTL war plans are unworkable, not likely to win, but don't really come up with a better idea but playing defense by 1914)

Aside from your east-west split, a defensive/counter attack deployment is probably the default German strategy if Moltke or the Schlieffen plan are discarded. One was suffering from poor health, the other was already obsolete.

 

[BooNZ]

You would have too have COMPLETLY
different people leading the German army &
someone- anyone?- else besides Wilhelm I
as Kaiser for this to happen, which I have
to say makes this senario ASB. Why? Because everything I've read re the build-
up to WWI makes it clear that the above-
mentioned people did not even consider
a defensive strategy in the event of war.
The only question was who- & how- they
would attack.

The problem here is that from a 1914 perspective, sitting and waiting for the enemy to attack is basically insane. It's not just in Germany. Strategic thinking in Europe is roughly analogous to Cold War thinking in the late 1950s/early 1960s before decent second strike options come online.

Absurd as this may sound, you really need post-1914, maybe even post-1918 generals in order to anticipate that offense is not necessarily the best defense. Otherwise they're all petrified that the second guy to mobilize is going to be late off the jump and inevitably destroyed.

Taking that what-if out, presumably the French would not have suffered the same "delusion." Their offense may not go as smoothly, and the trenches end up drawn in different places.

If both sides realize magically in 1914 that they will probably lack the ability to conduct meaningful offensives, and react to that conservatively, then I guess everybody spends the year busily digging trenches a couple hundred yards their side of the border and then just sits there waiting for somebody to invent tanks. But again, this is unlikely. The predominant mentality is that rapid offensives are the key to victory.

Before his retirement in 1905 von Schlieffen contemplated a future war where Germany would have to fight more numerous French and Russian opponents on two separate fronts. Throughout his tenure von Schlieffen was a strong proponent of counter-attack, defeating opposing armies in detail using the German rail and internal lines to fight decisive battles in close proximity to German rail heads. An example of this doctrine in action was Battle of Tannenberg.

 

[Aphrodite]

Are there any potential preWW1 conflicts that could show sitting tight and letting your enemy charge into machine gun fire can be a winning strategy?

Tactically, such examples exist- the seige of Porth Arthur would be one. Strategically, it won't work simply because the Russians have no reason to attack Germany. They only do so to draw the Germans off the French. No German invasion of France, no Russian invasion of Germany

The Ottomans might still want to reacquire lost territory from Russia, though. Also, an additional ally would still help the Central Powers in this TL even if it wouldn't be as crucial as it was in our TL.

The Ottomans take their time to join OTL, they will here as well. They will only accept a German offer if they think the Germans will win

In such a scenario, Germany would certainly benefit--perhaps immensely. After all, the military technology at the start of World War I was suited for defense--not offense.

Germany is dead in this. The Russians will only attack when they are fully mobilized. They use 6 partially mobilized armies OTL in August 1914. ITTL, they will have 10 fully mobilized. Even worse, the Austrians will have two stuck deep in Serbia that they can't pull out instead of just the one OTL

But again, there is no reason for either France or Russia to attack Germany. Time is definitely on their side as it allows full Russian mobilization The Russians will only attack Germany to draw the Germans off the French and the French will attack only to draw the Germans off the Russians. Mobilizing and sitting pins the Germans just like France and Russia want

Its not the technology that favors the defensive as much as the balance between the sides. Highly effective offensives include the German sweep through Belgium and Northern France, the Russian mauling of Austria and Gorlice-Tarnow to name but a few.

The Eastern front with its wide open spaces is always going to allow for a war of maneuver.

 

[Glenn239]

What if Germany adopted a completely defensive strategy in 1914....

In this TL the Germans mobilize in response to the Russians, but wait on the defensive, not declaring war on anybody until the Russians actually cross the border into Austria.

The Germans tell the Austrians to focus on beating the Serbians (i.e. keep the second army there) and form up strictly on the defensive against the Russians (well back from the frontier).

In this TL, the strong German 1st army is in East Prussia, 8th army in Silesia. 2-7th are still in the west, poised on the border to defend the German iron fields as much as possible ahead of the fortress line.

In this TL, where war is delayed from days to weeks vs OTL, the German Navy completely mobilizes its older ships, reservists are called into the colonies world wide, merchant raiders are fitted out, supplies are shipped to the colonies and strategic supplies are imported while possible.

How would war play out? (or does the war even happen)

(How could this occur: Maybe The Kaiser chickens out at the though of Britain coming in, Moltke plays along, but doesn't want to risk pulling much of the western army east. OR The Germans just realize that pre war their OTL war plans are unworkable, not likely to win, but don't really come up with a better idea but playing defense by 1914)

If I understand the proposal correctly, it's that the Germans spend the equivalent of about $1 trillion US dollars in today's money to mobilize their army, and then hand the Franco-Russians the initiative? Why would they do that?

The British will mobilize their army and fleet and await developments.
The French will mobilize and await developments.
The Russians will hold back from invading Prussia and Galicia. Instead of 6 armies for the initial campaign, they will wait for 8 armies.
The Austrians will have the time to get their 2nd army to Galicia. Perhaps it splits 6/6 between the fronts. The fall rains in this region will be a factor slowing down a Russian offensive.
The Germans will have no offensive option in the west as they've lost 1st Army. They will have no offensive option in the East, as Russia will match them 2 or 3 armies. The Germans are therefore waiting too.

Between mid-August and mid-September the Austrians will invade Serbia with their 5th, 6th, and elements of their 2nd army.
The Russians will declare war on Austria and invade Galicia.
The Germans will declare war on Russia and their 1st and 8th armies will attempt to support the Austrians while their western armies sit idle.
The French will declare war on Germany in response to the Russian DOW on Germany
The British will declare war on Germany in response to the French DOW on Germany.
The Royal Navy will cut Germany's outside communications and the British government will bombard the United States with anti-CP propaganda, now focused on Austria as Germany's 'stalking horse' rather than atrocities in Belgium.
The BEF will embark for France if not already there.
The French will attack across the common border and then invade the Belgian Ardennes, followed by the Germans, and the front line will stabilize in the Ardennes, perhaps after a tactical defeat of the French that sends them back towards their own border, (the Germans cannot pursue into France because the 1st Army is missing).
Belgium will remain neutral but for all intents and purposes, drift into the Entente orbit.