Winston Smith
Banned
I hope Reagan wins the nomination and the election; the country needs smart, confident leadership 
. Great TL Dew; is a map available?
. Great TL Dew; is a map available?Fear, Loathing and Gumbo on the Campaign Trail '72
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John Farson
Banned
With the Dem nominee now a non-Southern governor, I find it likely that the GOP nominee will pretty much sweep the South this time, perhaps minus one or two states (like Florida). To compensate for that, Carey pretty much needs to win everything between West Virginia and Maine, as well as the Great Lakes states and the West Coast. If Reagan's the nominee again, you can forget about California, but Washington and Oregon would still be doable.
One thing helping the Dems here compared to OTL 1980 is that there is no chronic crisis (Hostage Crisis) eroding support, and the party hasn't acquired a reputation for being weak on defence and foreign policy (no McGovern '72, Wallace dropping the Bomb on Lop Nur).
One thing helping the Dems here compared to OTL 1980 is that there is no chronic crisis (Hostage Crisis) eroding support, and the party hasn't acquired a reputation for being weak on defence and foreign policy (no McGovern '72, Wallace dropping the Bomb on Lop Nur).
The country has suffered enough ITTL; no need to pile it on.I hope Reagan wins the nomination and the election; the country needs smart, confident leadership
Thande
Donor
Cool update. As I've mentioned before, I like how this TL has balance--while some things get worse, others get better, and in some areas there is a sense of having passed through the darkness and emerged into the light.
I also like (as with the OTL 1970s and 80s) there are loads of war scares that never actually go anywhere, rather than everything necessarily having to build up as foreshadowing of a future big bang--OTL doesn't work like that, and nor should an ATL.
One minor point--you use the word 'caucus' in a British political context several times; it sticks out like a sore thumb to my eyes because we think of it as such a characteristically American term (that is, those of us who even know what it means).
I like how we got to see the Geneva Conference from three different perspectives (American, British, and Soviet) through the different accounts, and how they all saw it rather differently...
I'm a bit surprised Carey made a reference to 'We the People' in his speech considering that's the name of Dellums' insurgent third party that could potentially steal votes from the Democrats at the election--unless Carey was trying to 'reclaim' the phrase from them I suppose.
Also, how could Enoch Powell be on the ballot for the Conservative leadership contest if he had long since left for the UUP?
I like how you've got colourful firebrand Airey Neave in charge of the Tories, yet because of the Healey's government's often quite right-wing policy, he's stuck in the same sort of position as William Hague 1997-2001, wanting to criticise the government but ending up agreeing with it most of the time...
I also like (as with the OTL 1970s and 80s) there are loads of war scares that never actually go anywhere, rather than everything necessarily having to build up as foreshadowing of a future big bang--OTL doesn't work like that, and nor should an ATL.
One minor point--you use the word 'caucus' in a British political context several times; it sticks out like a sore thumb to my eyes because we think of it as such a characteristically American term (that is, those of us who even know what it means).
I like how we got to see the Geneva Conference from three different perspectives (American, British, and Soviet) through the different accounts, and how they all saw it rather differently...
I'm a bit surprised Carey made a reference to 'We the People' in his speech considering that's the name of Dellums' insurgent third party that could potentially steal votes from the Democrats at the election--unless Carey was trying to 'reclaim' the phrase from them I suppose.
Also, how could Enoch Powell be on the ballot for the Conservative leadership contest if he had long since left for the UUP?
I like how you've got colourful firebrand Airey Neave in charge of the Tories, yet because of the Healey's government's often quite right-wing policy, he's stuck in the same sort of position as William Hague 1997-2001, wanting to criticise the government but ending up agreeing with it most of the time...
Orville_third
Banned
How did the SC primary go? Did Lee Atwater help Reagan as in OTL? Did anyone make an issue over the polls being closed in much of the state? (SC law says the parties run the Presidential Primaries- a relic of the Jim Crow era. 1980 was the first Republican Primary in SC. Until 2008, when the parties asked for state funding to help handle the mass of voters, the record for the most polls opened was about 80% in 2000. So I can imagine someone looking into things that would find out that over 20% of the polls in SC never opened...and make it an issue...)
Mappity Map, Don't Talk Back
I think I got everything.
Anyways, I really think Rumsfeld will be the next President. That's a good way for Drew to get in some of the ideas he had for a version of TTL with Agnew staying in office.
Then again, he also had an idea for an alternate of TTL with Reagan in office.
By the way, how is Mao Zedong seen now? He's consistently referred to as the Great Helmsman, so it seems his image actually brightened compared to the Lesser Mao. Which is absolutely horrifying since the only reason he isn't demonized IOTL is that the PRC can't demonize Mao because he's not only their Stalin, but their Lenin.
I think I got everything.
Anyways, I really think Rumsfeld will be the next President. That's a good way for Drew to get in some of the ideas he had for a version of TTL with Agnew staying in office.
Then again, he also had an idea for an alternate of TTL with Reagan in office.
By the way, how is Mao Zedong seen now? He's consistently referred to as the Great Helmsman, so it seems his image actually brightened compared to the Lesser Mao. Which is absolutely horrifying since the only reason he isn't demonized IOTL is that the PRC can't demonize Mao because he's not only their Stalin, but their Lenin.
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Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Banned
The comment about future Soviet expansion into China got me thinking: Just how well have you planned ahead the future installments of this TL, Drew? For instance, have you already decided who's going to win the 1980 US presidential election?
Something that's been bugging me but I forgot to mention the last time: If the Lesser Mao's initiated an anti-literacy campaign, why did that Pakistani diplomat see newspapers during his visit to China?
Something that's been bugging me but I forgot to mention the last time: If the Lesser Mao's initiated an anti-literacy campaign, why did that Pakistani diplomat see newspapers during his visit to China?
Well, Haig always was a tin-pot, banna-republican clown.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRZqDN-2eYs
Did he sound anything like that while he said just how ''in charge'' he was?
Plus the fact Wallace (who was never a great team-player OTL) is a embittered & dying man who wont give a f**k about the ''Jewish vote''.
Also just how far would the Soviets want to expand in China? Annexing East Turkistan wont find much favour in Moscow given their (unjustified) OTL fears about the loyalty of their growing Central Asian populations. They might have anexed it in the 1930's or 40's but by 1980 it's unlikely.
Inner Mongolia would only be ''Soviet'' if Mongolia itself was an SSR and Manchuria's population is (or at least was) 70-odd million in 1980. That's a lot of Han Chinese to assimilate even if they were willing/happy to live under Moscow's rule after the sheer mind-numbing horrors Lesser Mao's regime.
I could see the U.S.S.R ajusting the border a little bit & taking over the likes of Port Arthur. Whilst setting put puppet states in the areas in their sphere of influence.
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They might possibly expand into Tibet, too.
With this election, both parties have eggs on their faces. Every President since Lyndon Johnson has been perceived by the public as badly as Lyndon Johnson has been, if not worse. Nixon is seen even worse than OTL because his foreign policy initiatives were destroyed by his successor Mr. Agnew, which needs no explanation, Gavin was seen as a Carteresque nice guy in over his head, and Wallace was the promise of a better tomorrow that failed to deliver.
Anyone else think the fact Agnew nearly caused WWIII will finally be leaked to the public in case of a Rumsfeld candidacy?
With this election, both parties have eggs on their faces. Every President since Lyndon Johnson has been perceived by the public as badly as Lyndon Johnson has been, if not worse. Nixon is seen even worse than OTL because his foreign policy initiatives were destroyed by his successor Mr. Agnew, which needs no explanation, Gavin was seen as a Carteresque nice guy in over his head, and Wallace was the promise of a better tomorrow that failed to deliver.
Anyone else think the fact Agnew nearly caused WWIII will finally be leaked to the public in case of a Rumsfeld candidacy?
What was George H. W. Bush's opinion of Rumsfeld? Would he pass this story on to Dubya, knowing that he'll probably blab to his actor friends?
What's happened to Sandy Koufax, by the way? How's he doing?
Given the crypto-fascist military regime now dominating South Africa, I can only imagine that Debeer's diamonds are no longer forever. Although considering the junta's dumping of gold on the global market, gems aren't the only luxury losing their cachet. My initial thought was that there might be some sort of (UN?) embargo on South African gold, but I then realized it would all too obviously melted down and mixed with metal from other sources.
Of course, this is assuming that by the point in the timeline the USSR annexes Uyghurstan (and Manchuria, or anything else) that it has a population as high as our timeline...
ITTL this war would probably be a magnet for white supremist groups and would bring in mercenaries of that sort, as well those that just love a good fight wherever they can get it. Rhodesia and South Africa could well be crawling with foreign Neo-Nazi types all looking to score one for their side of the race war. Question is how they would get along with some of the Asian mercenaries being brought in to fight in the war. Could be an interesting dynamic.
Of course, the other side would also attract black supremists looking to extend their fight against white power.
Carey would consciously use We The People precisely because the third party movement is a threat to him in the Northeast, where he needs the a strong base to win in the Electoral College. He needs to reduce the third party threat so he’s going to try and incorporate as much of their populist appeal as he possibly can without alienating too much of his left base.
Jerry Brown might make an excellent running mate except that you can’t have two Roman Catholics on the ticket. Another choice might be Henry Jackson, to add his foreign policy experience and to heal any rifts in the party. (Plus it would be no secret that the incumbent President was backing Jackson as his successor). Another thought would be if he can win Pete McCloskey of California over to the “dark side.”
I have gamed out the 1980 election for this TL, making use of all the weaknesses of the Electoral College, but not necessarily a repeat of 1972 (there’s more than one way to go about this). When doing your regional analysis think about what effects the third parties will have – and where that impact would be felt.
The New York Lt. Governor creates some interesting opportunities here. For TTL let’s say Mary Anne Krupsak decided to run for another term as Lt. Governor instead of challenging Carey (perhaps she was persuaded by the Democratic Party not to undermine Carey in a contest with Jack Kemp) in 1978, so she stands to become Governor if Carey is elected (first female Governor of New York). Meanwhile, Mario Cuomo was appointed by the Wallace Administration to administer New York City (in receivership, not the FDH idea) as a trustee or manager (i.e. a quasi-Mayor).
Every step forward brings one back, and neither trusts the other. At the moment both superpowers are crippled at the top in terms of decision-making leadership.
A Carey win would probably be seen as some sort of capitalist coup (if they equate New York with the center of American capitalism) from the Kremlin perspective. A Reagan win would be a win for the reactionaries, while a Rumsfeld win would be the return of the Agnew faction.
Thanks.
Provided no one does anything stupid or obstinate. (Think 1968 and 1976).
One served a crook who nearly started World War III, one is squishy on terrorists with the IRA, not to mention his girlfriend and both men can be testy when pressed. Yes, should be fun (if Rumsfeld gets the nomination).
South Africa is under greater threat so the military would become more prominent. ITTL Vorster stayed on longer, and as things became more precarious to the north of the country, he relied more on the military, so General Malan’s ascent shouldn’t be seen as a dramatic coup, as in Chile, but a gradual rise of the military gaining more significant posts and spreading their power within the existing democratic government structures (think like Japan in the 1930’s where the military used a perceived crisis to spread its influence within the existing governing structure until they controlled it and eventually named one of their own as prime minister).
I've always maintained there's nothing like war to bring out the base stupidity in people.
Airey Neave: Oh Barbara, do take off the rose coloured spectacles and smell the green tea already.
As in one's parliamentary caucus? (As opposed to the Iowa Presidential Caucus for instance). We use the term the same way in Canada to refer to a parliamentary party's group of MPs. In the U.S. a vestige of the idea (i.e. Joe Lieberman "caucuses" with the Democrats; you have the Congressional Black Caucus etc.).
Shows you how far apart everyone is, and they don't fully realize the gulf between them, let alone have solutions.
An old-line backbencher in an opposition caucus casting a dissonent vote because he thinks they should all get stuffed. What are they going to do to him? Take away his key to the gents? (Probably would be disallowed after the count).
Does put him in a hard place for the moment, but things can change: mostly he can agree and then critcize with a "yes, but this.." Airey Neave, had he lived, would probably have added even more fire to the Thatcher years. Fun to imagine what it would have been like with him as leader.
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