AmIndHistoryAuthor
Banned
This has come up a few times in recent weeks, and Turtledove's extremely romanticized view of the CSA clouds the issue. And the CSA's temporary pragmatism in seeking treaties with the Five Tribes shouldn't be assumed to be the norm. There's no reason they won't break any treaties the first chance they get. (I expect we'll get lots of hollering from the Confederate apologists about that. Heck, I expect lots of holloering from the apologists period.)
Basically, other minorities besides Blacks fare far worse under a CSA victory for a simple reason:
Minorities generally do far worse under a newly independent nation with its new and aggressive nationalism than they did under the previous nation-state. Eg, the USA treated Indians far worse than Britain did because it was no longer restrained by the Crown, or by a British govt worried about stability and financial costs or conflicts in other parts of the empire.
The most extreme case is of course the genocide carried out by Turkey vs Armenians once they got free from the Ottoman Empire. I don't expect outright genocide (except possibly for Seminoles and Lumbee), bu I would expect even more extreme prejudice and assimilation eforts than IOTL, including cultural genocide and probably eugenics.
We should also surmise that the prejudice of the Old South IOTL vs any minority is far worse when they don't have to worry about a federal govt or northern civil rights groups, northern whites, northern Blacks, and other minorities they can form an alliance with which exist in far greater numbers in other parts of the US IOTL, like Latinos, Jews, etc.
Jews in a new CSA-
See the Knights of Mary Phagan, the Leo Frank case, the worst instance of anti Semitism in US history, pogroms all over the state of Georgia and lynchings actually carried out by Georgia state legislators themelves. Something like it may happen even sooner under the CSA.
Latinos-
Tejanos (Mexican Texans) will mostly do very poorly. IOTL they faced almost as much lynching as Blacks, and quite a lot of land losses. Some tried assimilation, demanding to be counted as "white."
Those of (theoretically) all Spanish ancestry will do better, but even they will face land losses at times. IOTL they were loyal to class, not ethnicity, working with the white supremacist insurgents of the Confederacy. Some stayed powerful under Reconstruction. Others were betrayed and loss their land and power. Expect the same in a CSA, only worse.
Landless and mixed race Mexicans (which is just about all of them) did far worse, and they tended to be pro Union or were reluctantly drafted into Confed militias. Expect the Cortina Wars to continue, but far worse. Expect Plan of San Diego like uprisings. Expect many to flee to Mexico. Expect lots of "passing" when possible.
Cubans-
No doubt the Confederacy will hope to annex Cuba or buy it from Spain. A war w/Spain is possible, possibly to divert attention from economic stagnation or continued conflict within the CSA.
That means the CSA inherits all the long history of conflict that Cuba had IOTL, massive slave revolts and repression that lasted for the whole last half of the 19th century. No doubt that will affect how white Southerners view Cubans. Expect a far worse divide along race among Cubans than IOTL.
Indian Tribes-
A lot depends on how the CSA victory was won, whether it includes OK Territory. But before getting to that...by tribe:
Tigua in W Texas
Kickapoo in S Texas
Both likely migrate to Mexico.
Alabama-Coushatta in E Texas- have long had an amazing ability to keep a low profile. Expect the same.
Lumbee in S Carolina- fought the CSA hard as guerillas. They're going to face a lot of retaliation, have to go into hiding or migrate, maybe south to join the Seminole o N to the US.
Catawba- long allied themselves with white slaveowners by hiring out as slavecatchers. Expect them to do the same.
Eastern Band Cherokee- Extremely pragmatic. Formed a CSA militia IOTL, but at the same time publicly declared their loyalty to the Union. The latter kept them from getting any retaliation by the fed govt as the Five Tribes faced, the former temporarily got them the right to vote on the state and local level. Voting rights didn't last, and don't expect them to under a CSA.
Seminole- Expect a Fourth Seminole War, this time vs the CSA. No reason they'd lose this one, they did amazingly well vs the US the first three times.
Mississippi Choctaw- are today the 3rd biggest employer in the state thanks to casinos. Don't expect that under the CSA. They would've long since been assimilated.
OK Territory
Assuming a CSA victory that gets OK Territory, expect mass migrations from most of the tribes.
IOTL some Cherokee fled to Mexico, led by Sequoyah. I expect even more would under the CSA, though some might seek refuge in the US. Perhaps the US sets up a different territory as a dumping ground for tribes.
IOTL, the Watie Boudinot faction of traitors that sold out their people before the Trail of Tears were the main pro Confederacy faction, waging war on their own people. Though generously accepted back and forgiven in the cause of unity, many chose to turn their backs on their own people and heritage, regarded being Cherokee as shameful and assimilated, until in the 1990s some of them formed the Southern Cherokee to try and get a casino.
Expect the same, except even more extreme sooner on, as the fate of Cherokees under a CSA. Expect revenge by the Watie faction vs the rightlful Cherokee leaders.
Some of the other Five Tribes, esp Choctaw and Seminole, regarded their Black "slaves" as allies or under fictive kinship. They'll almost certainly flee with them rather than live under the CSA.
Expect many other tribes to flee OK Territory to Mexico, or to face an even more extreme version of assimilation than faced by the tribes IOTL.
And once the 1930s and 40s come around, it'll be appalling to see the extent of the appeal of Nazism to elites in the CSA. Will Jews and others face Nuremburg-style laws? I wouldn't expect death camps, but possibly mass deportations driven by unrest caused by the Great Depression.
Basically, other minorities besides Blacks fare far worse under a CSA victory for a simple reason:
Minorities generally do far worse under a newly independent nation with its new and aggressive nationalism than they did under the previous nation-state. Eg, the USA treated Indians far worse than Britain did because it was no longer restrained by the Crown, or by a British govt worried about stability and financial costs or conflicts in other parts of the empire.
The most extreme case is of course the genocide carried out by Turkey vs Armenians once they got free from the Ottoman Empire. I don't expect outright genocide (except possibly for Seminoles and Lumbee), bu I would expect even more extreme prejudice and assimilation eforts than IOTL, including cultural genocide and probably eugenics.
We should also surmise that the prejudice of the Old South IOTL vs any minority is far worse when they don't have to worry about a federal govt or northern civil rights groups, northern whites, northern Blacks, and other minorities they can form an alliance with which exist in far greater numbers in other parts of the US IOTL, like Latinos, Jews, etc.
Jews in a new CSA-
See the Knights of Mary Phagan, the Leo Frank case, the worst instance of anti Semitism in US history, pogroms all over the state of Georgia and lynchings actually carried out by Georgia state legislators themelves. Something like it may happen even sooner under the CSA.
Latinos-
Tejanos (Mexican Texans) will mostly do very poorly. IOTL they faced almost as much lynching as Blacks, and quite a lot of land losses. Some tried assimilation, demanding to be counted as "white."
Those of (theoretically) all Spanish ancestry will do better, but even they will face land losses at times. IOTL they were loyal to class, not ethnicity, working with the white supremacist insurgents of the Confederacy. Some stayed powerful under Reconstruction. Others were betrayed and loss their land and power. Expect the same in a CSA, only worse.
Landless and mixed race Mexicans (which is just about all of them) did far worse, and they tended to be pro Union or were reluctantly drafted into Confed militias. Expect the Cortina Wars to continue, but far worse. Expect Plan of San Diego like uprisings. Expect many to flee to Mexico. Expect lots of "passing" when possible.
Cubans-
No doubt the Confederacy will hope to annex Cuba or buy it from Spain. A war w/Spain is possible, possibly to divert attention from economic stagnation or continued conflict within the CSA.
That means the CSA inherits all the long history of conflict that Cuba had IOTL, massive slave revolts and repression that lasted for the whole last half of the 19th century. No doubt that will affect how white Southerners view Cubans. Expect a far worse divide along race among Cubans than IOTL.
Indian Tribes-
A lot depends on how the CSA victory was won, whether it includes OK Territory. But before getting to that...by tribe:
Tigua in W Texas
Kickapoo in S Texas
Both likely migrate to Mexico.
Alabama-Coushatta in E Texas- have long had an amazing ability to keep a low profile. Expect the same.
Lumbee in S Carolina- fought the CSA hard as guerillas. They're going to face a lot of retaliation, have to go into hiding or migrate, maybe south to join the Seminole o N to the US.
Catawba- long allied themselves with white slaveowners by hiring out as slavecatchers. Expect them to do the same.
Eastern Band Cherokee- Extremely pragmatic. Formed a CSA militia IOTL, but at the same time publicly declared their loyalty to the Union. The latter kept them from getting any retaliation by the fed govt as the Five Tribes faced, the former temporarily got them the right to vote on the state and local level. Voting rights didn't last, and don't expect them to under a CSA.
Seminole- Expect a Fourth Seminole War, this time vs the CSA. No reason they'd lose this one, they did amazingly well vs the US the first three times.
Mississippi Choctaw- are today the 3rd biggest employer in the state thanks to casinos. Don't expect that under the CSA. They would've long since been assimilated.
OK Territory
Assuming a CSA victory that gets OK Territory, expect mass migrations from most of the tribes.
IOTL some Cherokee fled to Mexico, led by Sequoyah. I expect even more would under the CSA, though some might seek refuge in the US. Perhaps the US sets up a different territory as a dumping ground for tribes.
IOTL, the Watie Boudinot faction of traitors that sold out their people before the Trail of Tears were the main pro Confederacy faction, waging war on their own people. Though generously accepted back and forgiven in the cause of unity, many chose to turn their backs on their own people and heritage, regarded being Cherokee as shameful and assimilated, until in the 1990s some of them formed the Southern Cherokee to try and get a casino.
Expect the same, except even more extreme sooner on, as the fate of Cherokees under a CSA. Expect revenge by the Watie faction vs the rightlful Cherokee leaders.
Some of the other Five Tribes, esp Choctaw and Seminole, regarded their Black "slaves" as allies or under fictive kinship. They'll almost certainly flee with them rather than live under the CSA.
Expect many other tribes to flee OK Territory to Mexico, or to face an even more extreme version of assimilation than faced by the tribes IOTL.
And once the 1930s and 40s come around, it'll be appalling to see the extent of the appeal of Nazism to elites in the CSA. Will Jews and others face Nuremburg-style laws? I wouldn't expect death camps, but possibly mass deportations driven by unrest caused by the Great Depression.
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