So ever since I saw this video:
I’ve been wondering what the fate would be of Alaska in a scenario where America owned Canada. Assuming the POD is the War of 1812, does Alaska stay Russian or end up American? If it ends up American how? Through America taking it in the Russian civil war? Or like otl with Russia willingly selling it?
Fate of Alaska with an American Canada?
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I don't think it changes Russia's desire to get rid of it (namely their inability to project force across their vast internal Siberian frontier).
Assuming minimum divergence in Mexico (such that they settle a 42 North treaty line per OTL), unless Britain populates Rupert's Land and Columbia out of spite... America is the only one with the money and the desire to purchase it.
If Alaska still is in Russia hands and we have a similar Russo-Japanese War I could see Japan snapping up the land but... the likeliest scenario to me is that America buys it or filibusters it once gold is found.
Assuming minimum divergence in Mexico (such that they settle a 42 North treaty line per OTL), unless Britain populates Rupert's Land and Columbia out of spite... America is the only one with the money and the desire to purchase it.
If Alaska still is in Russia hands and we have a similar Russo-Japanese War I could see Japan snapping up the land but... the likeliest scenario to me is that America buys it or filibusters it once gold is found.
I think Spain could purchase it, given the fact the 1860s were somewhat of a high point for Spain's otherwise unfortunate 19th century, and Spain did have an historic claim on Alaska based on their expeditions in the Pacific Northwest.
The Japanese loved gold and IOTL gold rushes in Hokkaido were important in bringing in Japanese settlers and investment. Alaska isn't as easy for growing crops as Hokkaido or even southern Karafuto/Sakhalin, but millet or buckwheat will do well locally in much of the Yukon Basin or around the Cook Inlet or Alexander Archipelago. Pastoralism of cattle will do best though, and this was done to some extent OTL but a more expansionistic Japan where Alaska is one of the few outlets will have much more pastoralism than the US did OTL. Japanese Alaska will be valuable for timber, cattle, coal, oil, minerals, and livestock TTL, while OTL the American-controlled Alaska's resources overlapped with what the Pacific Northwest in general had to offer. If Alaska were under any real threat from American settlers, then the Meiji government would organise a campaign to settle the place to minimise the influence of Americans or other anti-Japanese forces.
Then it would still go to the USA in the ATL counterpart of the Spanish-American War, and although a War of 1812 POD could butterfly that war away, the Spanish acquisition of Alaska makes the war much more likely.
Not if Meiji Japan acquires it before 1898. I imagine that in the aftermath of Third Carlist War Spain would want to sell Alaska. Japan would probably not be a buyer before 1890 or so admittedly. After something like the 1895 Triple Intervention, then I imagine Meiji Japan would be very interested in buying Alaska from Spain.
That's assuming Spain can hold it until 1895 (the sale could bring about the war earlier) and the Japan can hold it. Unless you buttefly away the Monroe Doctrine (and I don't think an outright American victory in the War of 1812 would do that) it's unlikely Spain or Japan would be able to hold it against the USA.
If anything, an outright American victory in the War of 1812 (or any other point where it could take control of Canada theoretically) would strengthen the concept of the Monroe doctrine. The United States, having effectively limited European presence in the Americas to small enclaves in the Caribbean and South America (and Alaska), would probably be quite suspicious of attempts by other European or Asian powers to establish a new foothold by buying Alaska and flooding it with settlers.
In any case, I don't think the Russians even reached out to Spain OTL. Certainly they had fairly good relations with the United States during the 19th century and there's no real reason for that to change merely because the United States controls Canada, so they're probably going to tap the United States first if and (more likely) when they decide to sell it. If the U.S. passes up the chance to buy Alaska, then you might see them shopping it around to Spain or Japan, but given that IOTL public opinion was generally in favor of it and the treaty easily passed the Senate, it would be odd if the U.S. did.