Even More Ethiopia TL Proposals! :D

Which TL would you like to see written?

  • Iyasu the Great!

    Votes: 10 18.2%

  • Ethiopia pulls a Finland!

    Votes: 21 38.2%

  • Unity, Liberty, Ethiopia!

    Votes: 6 10.9%

  • The People and Party are one!

    Votes: 5 9.1%

  • Orthodoxy and Socialism, United!

    Votes: 10 18.2%

  • Ethiopia and Eritrea, Brothers in Blood!

    Votes: 3 5.5%
  • Total voters
    55
twistedirregular

twistedirregular

This probably won't be paid too much attention but hey, why not give it a shot?

Iyasu the Great! - A Russian-educated Lij Iyasu V comes to the throne in 1913.

Ethiopia pulls a Finland! - Ethiopia manages to survive the Second Italo-Ethiopian War, independent of an Italian occupation and retaining most of her territory.

Unity, Liberty, Ethiopia! - A different 1960 Ethiopian Coup is successful, seeing Ethiopia going Ba'athist.

The People and Party are one! - The Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Party comes to power in Ethiopia.

Orthodoxy and Socialism, United! - A different 1974 Revolution sees Ethiopia becoming an Orthodox Christian Socialist state.

Death to the Secessionists! - The Tigrayan People's Liberation Front is strangled in its cradle before it can grow powerful enough to seize power IOTL.

Ethiopia and Eritrea, Brothers in Blood! - Eritrea doesn't become independent from Ethiopia in the early 90s.

Please vote for whichever TL you'd like to see! If you have any post-1900 TL proposals for Ethiopia, I'd like to see them.
 
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Some Bloke

Ethiopia doing a Finland would be interesting. Benny the Moose would probably be toppled soon afterwards, so we'd be seeing effects outside of Ethiopia very early on.
 
twistedirregular

twistedirregular

Some Bloke said:
Ethiopia doing a Finland would be interesting. Benny the Moose would probably be toppled soon afterwards, so we'd be seeing effects outside of Ethiopia very early on.
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I'm thinking that the failure of Italy to defeat Ethiopia conventionally might not only see Mussolini ousted from power but maybe even spark reforms in the Italian military, although I'm not too sure about the latter. Do you think its plausible for Ethiopia to "pull a Finland"?
 

Some Bloke

Not without outside support beforehand.

How about this for a PoD:

There was a peace treaty (can't remember which one) where the parties foreswore territorial expansion in Europe. The Italians insisted on changing it from territorial expansion, full stop.

Perhaps if this treaty were signed without the Italian amendment, this could push for harder sanctions against Italy and none against Ethiopia. Ethiopia continues to receive weapons, while Italy suffers from various embargoes (including oil), trade boycotts, perhaps even an attempt at closing the Suez off to Italian shipping.

Either that or HIM H-S I starts major economic reforms early in his reign.
 
twistedirregular

twistedirregular

Some Bloke said:
Not without outside support beforehand.

How about this for a PoD:

There was a peace treaty (can't remember which one) where the parties foreswore territorial expansion in Europe. The Italians insisted on changing it from territorial expansion, full stop.

Perhaps if this treaty were signed without the Italian amendment, this could push for harder sanctions against Italy and none against Ethiopia. Ethiopia continues to receive weapons, while Italy suffers from various embargoes (including oil), trade boycotts, perhaps even an attempt at closing the Suez off to Italian shipping.

Either that or H-S start major economic reforms early in his reign.
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That was actually what I was thinking of doing for an "Ethiopia pulls a Finland" TL - if Ethiopia has any chance at surviving the Second Italo-Ethiopian War, she needs effective economic sanctions against Italy and no arms embargo. It all depends on how long Ethiopia can remain in the fight, especially if the Suez Canal is to closed to Italy - that might even start a World War but I don't think Mussolini would be that suicidal.

You'd need Haile Selassie to come to power earlier for that - perhaps in 1913?
 

Some Bloke

I'd say so, yes. Both sides were fighting on a knife, strengthen Ethiopia slightly and weaken Italy drastically
and all bets are off.
 

Cornelius

twistedirregular said:
That was actually what I was thinking of doing for an "Ethiopia pulls a Finland" TL - if Ethiopia has any chance at surviving the Second Italo-Ethiopian War, she needs effective economic sanctions against Italy and no arms embargo. It all depends on how long Ethiopia can remain in the fight, especially if the Suez Canal is to closed to Italy - that might even start a World War but I don't think Mussolini would be that suicidal.

You'd need Haile Selassie to come to power earlier for that - perhaps in 1913?
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The problem with this kind of suggestions is that they disregard completely politics. In 1935 France and England were still trying to tie Italy to themselves, not to push her away (see the Stresa Front). The invasion of Ethiopia was discussed, informally, at Stresa and received a green light, always informally, of course. Even later the Hoare-Lavalle plan show how much they were willing to go to save Italy.

Nor Great Britain, nor France were willing to go to war for Ethiopia and closing Suez or interfering directly in the invasion would have amounted to a declaration of war. So, to pull a "Finland", Ethiopia would have to rely only on her own strenght.

Now if you want to have an indipendent Abyssinia, why don't you have Selassie actually allying with Italy? Before the thirties, relationships weren't too bad and, with a clever diplomacy, an alliance could be built. Mussolini would read it as a form of protectorate, but a fascist Selassie could use italian help to bring forth the "fascist revolution", toppling aristocracy and modernizing the country.
 

Hvalrossen

Orthodoxy and Socialism, United! - A different 1974 Revolution sees Ethiopia becoming an Orthodox Christian Socialist state.
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This seems interesting.

Wonder how this state would be organized. Would it have a kind of moral police? How would it's relationship be with Israel, Arab states, Somalia, USSR, USA. Also how would orthodoxy change? Would conversion to Orthodoxy become common in Ethiopia and Eritrea? Would Khat be legal in this state?
 
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twistedirregular

twistedirregular

Some Bloke said:
I'd say so, yes. Both sides were fighting on a knife, strengthen Ethiopia slightly and weaken Italy drastically
and all bets are off.
Click to expand...
How similar do you think an Ethiopian "victory" would be to Finland's "victory"?
Hvalrossen said:
Wonder how this state would be organized. Would it have a kind of moral police? How would it's relationship be with Israel, Arab states, Somalia, USSR, USA. Also how would orthodoxy change? Would conversion to Orthodoxy become common in Ethiopia and Eritrea? Would Khat be legal in this state?
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I haven't outlined the entire structure of an Orthodox Christian Socialist Ethiopia but I think it'd resemble something between an Orthodox Christian version of Siad's Somalia and Ba'athist Iraq - or even Saudi Arabia but less fundamentalist.

Israel - It could prove to be similar to OTL where the Israelis were happy to provide advisors in training the Ethiopian Army and supporting her against separatist elements throughout the new Ethiopia.

Somalia - Probably the same as OTL but a bit worse.

USSR - Similar to their relations with Somalia, particularly in regards to organization of the political party that comes to control an Orthodox Christian Socialist Ethiopia but I'm not sure if Moscow would support Ethiopia against Somalia in the Ogaden War.

USA - Maybe a bit better than OTL but I'm not too sure.

I doubt Khat would be legal.
 
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