Italian Invasion of Ethiopia Escalates = Earlier WWII?

Hey Everyone,

While researching my term papers for this semesters, I came across and interesting counter-factual article in the European Review of Economic History. To sum it all up, the author examined the potential effects of the League of Nations' extending their economic sanctions against Italy (in response to invading Abyssinia) to include coal, oil, and other strategic minerals (a proposal actually considered in OTL). His conclusion was, that while the sanctions would not affect Italy's conduct of the war, they would put a severe crimp in their economy and potentially force Italy to back down. However he also noted the potential of military escalation in response to said sanctions, which got me thinking about a plausible escalation of the Abyssinian Crisis...

POD November 2nd 1935: While discussing the impositions of economic sanctions on Italy in response to its recent invasion of Abyssinia, the League officials decide to include Proposal IVA which extended the embargo to coal, oil, pig iron and steel. This is due primarily to the prevailing view that the great disparity between Italian and Ethiopian military strengths would result in a short war requiring decisive action. (In OTL the League predicted a fairly lengthy conflict of around a year and so gradual economic sanctions were favoured. In TTL their initial analysis is more accurate resulting in a more drastic course of action being taken.) Though some politicians within Britain and France favour a policy of appeasement in the hopes of bringing Italy into an anti-German alliance, their proposals are shot down as many politicians view them as capitulatory.

November 5th: The Italian Government passes the Regio Decreto-Legge 31 ottobre 1935, no. I857 which raises the tariff and sales tax on crude oil and related commodities in anticipation of a League oil Embargo. (Passed in OTL but quickly rendered moot by lack of oil sanctions)

November 8th: The Italian I Corps and the Eritrean Corps capture the Abyssinian city of Makale thus marking the furthest extent of Italian troops into Abyssinia.

November 10th: Having just won re-election in a landslide victory, President Franklin Roosevelt of the USA agrees not to increase American oil exports to Italy beyond peace-time levels. He furthermore encourages American companies to follow such an embargo and if possible cut down on exports of oil to Italy. (Also happened in OTL)

November 16th: General Emilio De Bono, in charge of the Italian invasion of Abyssinia is promoted to Marshal of Italy for his actions in Ethiopia.

November 18th 1935: League Sanctions go into effect against Italy. In response, Mussolini urges Marshal De Bono to press the attack more aggressively and bring about an end to the war sooner. In addition Mussolini orders that plans be enacted to minimize the effect of the sanctions on the Italian economy.

November 25: Having failed to secure sources of oil outside of the League of Nations, (most notably in the United States which has honoured it’s commitment not to increase oil exports to Italy) Mussolini makes a public speech decrying the sanctions as illegal, criminal, and motivated by greed, in an attempt to drum up support for the war. This speech and others like it would precipitate a war of words between Mussolini and various British and French politicians, resulting in an increased interest in the Abyssinian War.

November 27: As public interest in the Abyssinian war increases around the Western World, a large number of journalists make the journey to the region to take advantage of the public interest.

December 1st: Effects of the League sanctions are beginning to show on the Italian economy due to state interference in the economy in order to minimize the long term effects of the sanctions.

December 4th: Unimpressed with De Bono’s progress in the ongoing Abyssinian War, Mussolini replaces him with Marshal Pietro Badoglio in the hopes of hastening the conduct of the war.

December 15th: An Abyssinian counteroffensive known as “The Christmas Offensive” begins as numerically superior Abyssinian forces surge northward and catch the Italian armies by surprise. Numerous victories are scored by the Abyssinians including the complete defeat of 1000 Eritrean troops under Major Criniti at The Battle of Dembeguina Pass.(A slight change to OTL in which around half of Criniti's force escapes. In TTL they don't giving the Ethiopians a much stronger victory.)

December 18th: Italians across the Empire participate in the “Harvest of Gold” that sees them give up their gold wedding bands and other gold items in exchange for steel wedding bands. This is seen as a necessary measure to assuage the falling gold stocks in Italy. (Happened in OTL)

December 26th: General Badoglio asks for and receives permission from Mussolini to use mustard gas on the advancing Ethiopian troops. (Again OTL)

December 27th: Italian use of mustard gas is recorded by Western journalists who promptly reveal it to the publics of Britain and France.

December 30th: Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie formally files a complaint with the League of Nations including significant evidence of the use of Mustard Gas along with other Italian atrocities (documented by Western journalists). Though Italy decries the complaint as lies, increased public interest in the war and public opinion forces the League to take the Abyssinian complaint more seriously.

January 3rd 1936: A fierce political debate is waged over the continued use of mustard gas by the Italians in the Abyssinian War, though some point to the failure of the League’s economic sanctions to halt the war, proponents of the sanctions point to the necessary time for Italy to feel the effects of said sanctions. Many including Winston Churchill and an increasing number of both French and British politicians begin advocating for a harsher treatment of Italy.

January 5th: League officials begin to consider closing the Suez Canal as a possible non-violent solution to the Abyssinian conflict.

January 7th: Mussolini reacts to rumours of League threats to close the Suez Canal to Italian Shipping by publicly declaring that any such action would be considered an act of War by Italy. Said threats seriously concern many Italian generals who see the nation as woefully unprepared for any conflict. In addition to these threats Mussolini begins expediting Italian shipments of reinforcements and supplies through the canal in the case of any potential closure.

Meanwhile said threats resonate in Britain and France both of which are unprepared for a war with Italy. However along with their apprehensions, both British and French publics don’t wish to back down from Italian threats. Winston Churchill among others is particularly vocal in his support for closing the Suez Canal.

January 16th: News reaches Europe of continued Italian use of mustard gas against Ethiopian targets along with other atrocities such as bombing Red Cross camps. Public outcry over the Italian prosecution of the war is correspondingly increased as is pressure on the League to do something.

January 18th: After almost 2 weeks of intense debate, Baldwin becomes convinced that the only way to bring about an end to the conflict is to close the Suez Canal to Italian shipping. That way the Italians are dissuaded from their imperialist ambitions in East Africa and the integrity of the League is upheld. A decision to close the canal would also go a long way in showing his government’s resistance to aggression and reduce public outcry over Britain’s continued inaction. Furthermore Mussolini’s threats of war are perceived to be empty given the poor state of the Italian economy.

January 20th: The British Parliament votes on whether or not to close the Suez Canal to Italian shipping headed for East Africa. The vote is a narrow yes with many members still fearing war on the horizon. However the bill passes leading British Authorities in the Suez to close the canal to Italian vessels. On the same day George V dies resulting in the ascension of Edward VIII.

January 21st: News of the British Parliament’s vote is met with approval from other countries in the League. Mussolini however decries the decision and warns Britain of “Awakening a Sleeping Dragon” using aggressive language. He concludes by demanding that the canal be reopened lest Britain risk further conflict. Baldwin however refuses and once again offers the League of Nations to intervene in the Abyssinian War and bring about an end to the conflict.

January 22nd: Mussolini refuses any mediation in the conflict claiming that the League is interfering in matters that it has no interest in.

January 23rd 1936: In one of the last and least successful examples of gunboat diplomacy units of the Italian navy attempt to force their way through the Suez Canal, precipitating the “Suez Incident of 1936”. An Italian taskforce led by the battleship ANDREA DORIA and consisting of cruisers, destroyers and several transports is confronted by elements of the British Mediterranean fleet outside of Port Said. Ordered to use whatever means necessary to get through the canal, the Italian commander does not stop and continues to sail towards the canal. Repeated warning shots across the bows of the Italian vessels are ignored until an errant shot strikes the ANDREA DORIA. This precipitates a brief engagement in which shots are fired by both sides inflicting damage and casualties. Though the Italian fleet is forced to retreat, many fear the damage has already been done.

Immediately both sides claim innocence in starting the conflict and demand reparations. Intransigence on both sides (despite the attempted mediation of France) leads to Italy making good on its promise to declare war.

January 24th 1936: Italy’s declaration of war against Great Britain is met with declarations of war from Britain as well as France. Furthermore the League moves to condemn the Italians. Mussolini orders Italian troops in North Africa to launch an offensive into Egypt with the intention of seizing the Suez Canal. Further offensives in Abyssinia are put on hold to move against British and French Somalilands.

------------------
So, what are your thoughts? Plausible? Insane?

Any thoughts on the conduct of the war itself? (assuming the above scenario is plausible)

Anyone know where I could get fairly detailed orders of battle for the various nations around this time?

Thanks
 
To my knowledge, it's not too crazy. Sure, Mussolini is stupid, but he was IOTL. But. This doesn't seem to me an earlier WW2--the Germans won't join in, nor the USSR or Japan. This will be Italy getting curb-stomped, and it could lead to no WW2.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Well, the reason oil and coal wasn't included in the sanction was that Britain and France were afraid that Mussolini would go nuts and start a European war. It wasn't that they were afraid to loose, they knew they'd win, but they'd lose Italy as a potential ally against Hitler. Mussolini and Hitler were not yet allies, actually they had a quite sour relationship since Italy had blocked early Anschluss in 1934. Britain and France had no desire to go to war over Ethiopia. They even offered Italy a peace proposal (The Hoare- Laval pact) where Italy would get half of Ethiopia's territory.
 
Wait, Italy versus France AND Britain? This should be fun.

I agree. And considering that a huge Italian Army got obliterated by a much smaller British army in western Egypt, and seeing how Italy could not defeat Greece on its own, I'm going to have to say this will be a pretty one-sided war. However, it might be containted to the Horn of Africa in the case of this scenario. Best-case for the Italians; they only lose Somaliland.
 

The Vulture

Banned
Think it'll be fought mainly in the Horn of Africa between forces already there. I can't see French troops marching down through the spine of Italy, as most people were probably anxious to avoid another war in Europe so soon after the last one.

Perhaps the Italians learn from their African misadventure and update their equipment and training, becoming a more competent and dangerous foe for the Allies in a slightly different WWII.
 
Keep going. Maybe Italy will go communist after this curbstomp war, or maybe if Mussolini somehow keeps power (almost ASB chance though) they we learn and be better prepared for TTL's WWII.
 
One interesting follow-on might be that the League of Nations is seen to be less of a paper tiger. The LoN condemned the Italian move, but it required individual members to enforce it's will. If Britain (and/or France) enforce the League will on Italy, then the League is a lot stronger.

Moreover, Hitler might suddenly realize that the West isn't just a paper tiger, and might be a bit less provocative. I suppose this is after the reoccupation of the Rhineland, so he's still got his first steps toward hegemony.

Having demonstrated the effectiveness of action against dictators, appeasement (and in particular Munich) is less likely to happen, and Hitler may try taking on Czechoslovakia, and setting off WWII early, causing it to end faster.
 
In 1936 Italian Army is in much better condition that in 1940,but i don't see how Italy can win aganist British Empire and France.
So the most probable end of this story is that Italy is defeat,Mussolini and fascist regime (and maybe the Savoia's Monarchy) fall,Italy return a democracy and stay neutral in the possible future WW-II.
For an Italian's eye this is a happy end.
But the question is with Italy defeat from Anglo-french,can Franco win the civil war in Spain?
And the Italian lesson can have in anymode influence on Hitler?
 
Nice to see some interest in this topic!

I've been doing some casual research myself, mostly on the initial POD, and orders of battle etc. I've got a rough idea of how the war itself would go, and some ideas on what would happen later on. I don't really want to give away too much as I'm thinking about actually writing a proper timeline on this.

That being said, it'll probably be more of a story/narrative approach rather than a date/event timeline like the rough one above.

Anyways I'd love to get some input from you guys on any range of topics related to this TL.

Unfortunately an update is going to have to wait until after my exams are done for this semester. The first part of this TL will probably be up after Dec 15...sometime.
 
A couple of questions.

First: The invasion of Abyssinia received a kind of green light during the Stresa summit between France, UK and Italy. Mussolini was considered as a possible ally against Germany and both Great Britain and France were willing to give up to a few of Duce's fantasies.
The imposition of the sanctions were due to the decision of the french and british delegates rather than their goverments. The very fact that crude oil and coal were not included tell us that they didn't care at all about Abyssinia' fate (they even negated to Selassié funds to raise a resistance movement).

But in your timeline France and UK seems to have a rather strong pro-Abyssinia stance. Given this situation, why Mussolini goes on? It would be rather stupid to risk war against two major powers.
And please don't give me the usual crappy answer: because Mussolini was a madman. He was a megalomaniac, but not a complete moron.
Italy fought three wars under his regime: Abyssinia, a victory, Greece, that turned out a disaster thanks to the incompetence of Albania governor, Prasca, who lied about the logistic possibilities of his harbours to hide his own shortcomings, and WW2, which Mussolini joined only when everybody thought that was nearly ended (Pity no one told that to the british :D).
In other words, Mussolini started only wars he thought he could win. In 1936 no one in Italy considered Great Britain as a possible enemy, the Regia Marina received the order to draw warplans against english navy only in 1938, after the clashes in Spain.

Second: Why an exit rout is not offered to Italy? Given the mountig hostility toward the Abyssinia adventure, why a plan like the OTL Hoavre-Lavalle is not drawn and discussed? It would only beneficial for everyone if Mussolini could withdraw saving his face.

My problem with this scenario is that Great Britain and France seem have already labelled Italy as an enemy, without an explanation. This could have happened OTL if Weimar had survived and remained a fairly pacific country, but otherwise...
OTL the goal of british and french diplomacy was to avoid another war, not to provoke one.
 
A couple of questions.

First: The invasion of Abyssinia received a kind of green light during the Stresa summit between France, UK and Italy. Mussolini was considered as a possible ally against Germany and both Great Britain and France were willing to give up to a few of Duce's fantasies.
The imposition of the sanctions were due to the decision of the french and british delegates rather than their goverments. The very fact that crude oil and coal were not included tell us that they didn't care at all about Abyssinia' fate (they even negated to Selassié funds to raise a resistance movement).

But in your timeline France and UK seems to have a rather strong pro-Abyssinia stance. Given this situation, why Mussolini goes on? It would be rather stupid to risk war against two major powers.
And please don't give me the usual crappy answer: because Mussolini was a madman. He was a megalomaniac, but not a complete moron.
Italy fought three wars under his regime: Abyssinia, a victory, Greece, that turned out a disaster thanks to the incompetence of Albania governor, Prasca, who lied about the logistic possibilities of his harbours to hide his own shortcomings, and WW2, which Mussolini joined only when everybody thought that was nearly ended (Pity no one told that to the british :D).
In other words, Mussolini started only wars he thought he could win. In 1936 no one in Italy considered Great Britain as a possible enemy, the Regia Marina received the order to draw warplans against english navy only in 1938, after the clashes in Spain.

Second: Why an exit rout is not offered to Italy? Given the mountig hostility toward the Abyssinia adventure, why a plan like the OTL Hoavre-Lavalle is not drawn and discussed? It would only beneficial for everyone if Mussolini could withdraw saving his face.

My problem with this scenario is that Great Britain and France seem have already labelled Italy as an enemy, without an explanation. This could have happened OTL if Weimar had survived and remained a fairly pacific country, but otherwise...
OTL the goal of british and french diplomacy was to avoid another war, not to provoke one.

Good points all, I've been doing some casual research into the initial POD and yes, it's going to be far more nuanced than "November 18th 1935: Britain and France impose sanctions".
 

Markus

Banned
The British look unnaturally tame in the face of a threat to the sea line of communication from the UK to India. I´d expect a much more "firm" reaction. And I also agree with Cornelius about Mussolini and the UK/France not being likely to let the situation deteriorate this far in the first place.
 
The big problem is UK support for Abyssinia. When the issue of Italian agression against it was raised in the League Australia led the Empire's reaction. Cook,the Australian delegate, remined the assembled nations that Ethiopia was a slave owning, raiding and trafficing country and that is was to all intents and purposes what we would now sescribe as a failed state. There was no sympathy within the Empire for it at all and no political will in the various constituencies to support it.

British delegates to the committee actually voted against the instructions of Whitehall to impose sanctions.
 
Hey Everyone, this TL has proved quite challenging as I'm basically trying to manipulate events into beginning a war that nobody wants. Hopefully what follows is at least somewhat plausible. That being said, without further ado...

A League of Their Own
PART I: Prelude

(From “A Crucial Conscience: Haile Selassie and the League of Nations” by Robert Marley, Kingston: University of Kingston Press, 1980)

“...The ascension of Haile Selassie to the throne of Ethiopia was by no means a smooth transition. Upon his ascension there was significant resistance from the more conservative faction in the court as well as lingering regional tensions. Brought together in opposition to the ascension of Haile Selassie these factors would lead to a prolonged struggle for the future of Ethiopia...

...The Battle of Anchem on March 31st 1931 would mark the first battle in what would become known as the Abyssinian Civil War. Though victorious, the forces of Haile Selassie were unable to score a decisive victory despite their superior technology, due in part to mechanical difficulties grounding the small Abyssinian airforce (1)...

...Despite having driven his opponents from the field, Haile Selassie would continue to struggle with his conservative opponents for several years before he was accepted as the Emperor of Ethiopia...

...Perhaps the biggest effect of the struggle over the Ethiopian Throne would be the harsh words of Belgian Military adviser Sebastian St.Croix who would write a scathing review of the Ethiopian armed forces’ performance in the conflict, portraying them as ‘...little more than savages having scarcely adapted to the modern way of war...’ This report would come to have a significant impact on the way foreign powers viewed Ethiopia, foreshadowing future events surrounding Italian Imperialism...”

(From “A History of Modern Austria 1918-1998” Theodore Schultz 1999)

...Though many would see the assassination of Chancellor Engelbert Dollfuss as a mere escalation of the Nazi campaign of terror that had swept the country in the aftermath of Hitler’s ascension to power in Germany, the reality couldn’t be further from the truth. The assassination itself would be carried out by Rudolf Dertill, a lone gunman officially unconnected to the burgeoning Austrian NSDAP. Dertill, a 22 year old corporal, expelled from the Army for his National Socialist views, penetrated the Chancellor’s security during a public speech on October 14th 1933 and opened fire from the crowd. A pair of shots rang out before he was wrestled to the ground, however the damage had been done. Engelbert Dollfuss was dead (2)...

...To this day the assassination of Dollfuss remains what one of the great “what if” questions of Austrian History. Despite his small stature, Dollfuss was truly a giant within the politics of the first Republic, attempting during his brief tenure in office, to establish a truly Austrian identity all the while stabilizing the First Republic. Had he survived, he might very well have succeeded, perhaps providing a formidable bulwark against the Nazi menace...

...Perhaps the only thing more distressing than the assassination of the Chancellor was his replacement. Emil Fey, Vice Chancellor of Austria prior to Dollfuss’ assassination promptly assumed the office once news of the assassination reached him. His willingness to assume command of the volatile situation coupled with his well known ambition immediately set rumours flying throughout the country (3)...

...Eager to dispel these rumours, Fey wasted no time in taking action. Utilizing the Austrian Army, police, and the paramilitary Heimwehr (4) which was now effectively under his personal control, Fey immediately began a fierce crackdown on all known elements of the NSDAP within the country...

...These searches, seizures, and arrests would not go un-resisted by the National Socialists who responded by ratcheting up their campaign of terror, focusing primarily on the paramilitary Heimwehr. Bombings, ambushes, and snipers became all too common in and around Nazi centers of power within the country. Earning the last two weeks of October 1933 the unfortunate moniker of “Bloody October”...

...Yet despite taking casualties, Fey and the Heimwehr were making progress, every day, the Austrian National Socialist Party was being dealt another hammer blow, and by the last week of October it had seemed as if the forces of the Government were beginning to turn the corner on the Nazi insurgency...

...Yet the events of Bloody October had not gone unnoticed by the other main faction in Austrian politics. Fey’s hatred of the Socialists was no secret and many feared his recent victories over the National Socialists would only strengthen his resolve. Indeed many among the Socialists viewed the strife between the National Socialists and the government as a potential boon and began agitating for dramatic action. With their opponents divided, any action by the Socialists could prove decisive in bringing down Fey’s dictatorial government and restoring democracy to the country...

...Despite clamouring for action, the Austrian Socialists remained passive for most of Bloody October. Yet ever growing fears of being next on Fey’s hit list only served to increase tensions. When rumours of renewed actions against the Socialists became substantiated in early November, many within the party felt themselves compelled to take action...

...Fey’s relentless attacks on the National Socialists had produced a terrified atmosphere amongst the Austrian socialists. Rumours flew left and right becoming larger and larger with each re-telling. Many feared Fey declaring all unions illegal and rounding up members and leadership alike, all the while dismantling the Schutzbund (5) and the remnants of the now illegal Social Democrat Party...

...Fearing their opportunity to take action quickly fading, the Socialist party decided to take action while the Austrian government was still distracted by the National Socialists. Their decision to take action would be marked by remarkable unity amongst the fractured Austrian left wing with all the major Unions taking part as well as the entire Schutzbund...

...The decision by the Socialists to take action would mark a massive expansion of what was already being termed “The Austrian Civil War”. Now in addition to fighting the National Socialists, Fey now faced a determined Socialist resistance which fiercely opposed the Nazi’s in addition to the government. The three way battle for Austria’s future had begun...

(From “Hitler’s First Conquest: The Subjugation of Austria 1933-1936” Arthur Nagy 1978)

...Having called for the annexation of Austria on the first page of Mein Kampf it was hardly surprising that Hitler chose Austria as his first target for foreign expansion. From the moment he took office, Hitler began a campaign of covert and economic warfare designed to bring down the Austrian government and bring it into the orbit of Germany (6)...

...In addition to financing and supporting a campaign of terror the likes of which Austria had never seen, Hitler also instituted a thousand mark charge on tourists crossing into Austria. Designed to cripple the Austrian tourism industry and by extension the Austrian economy, Hitler quickly saw that his attempts at cowing the Austrians into submission were failing to have the desired effect. If anything the effect was the exact opposite, further strengthening Austria’s national identity and resolve to resist German expansion (7)...

...Though initially hailed as a landmark achievement, the assassination of Dollfuss in October 1933, quickly turned against the National Socialists, as Fey’s counter-offensive threatened to exterminate the Austrian National Socialist movement. Despite the best efforts of Hitler and the SS, by the end of Bloody October, the National Socialists were reeling. Hitler’s dreams of a massive uprising bringing down the Austrian government were fading fast. It was quickly becoming apparent that Austria would have to be subdued some other way, perhaps by direct annexation...

...In fact, many documents seem to suggest that Hitler was on the verge of winding down official German involvement in the Austrian Civil war prior to the decision of the Socialists to intervene. Viewing the Austrian Nazi party as a lost cause, Hitler was prepared to put his dreams of Anschluss on the backburner while focusing on something more worthwhile...

...With the commencement of the General Strike and clashes between the government forces and those of the Schutzbund, any thought of abandoning Austria was immediately cast aside as Hitler prepared to make one last attempt at bringing down the Austrian government. Within days of the Socialists joining the fracas, German weapons and volunteers were flocking across the border in droves to bolster the flagging forces of the Austrian National Socialists...

(From “A History of Modern Austria 1918-1998” Theodore Schultz 1999)

...Fey now found himself facing a three way conflict for the future of the young nation of Austria. Austrian government forces bolstered by various loyal paramilitary organizations were now facing not only National Socialist, but Marxist opposition. Yet despite his desire to completely crush the National Socialists, Fey was forced to focus on the larger threat, that of the Marxists. With the advent of the General Strike and the Socialist attacks on government buildings, what remained of the Austrian economy had effectively ground to a halt, and government attempts to break the strike had only solicited further violence and extensive casualties...

...Fey’s attempts to bring about a victory for the pro-government forces was further hampered by his own megalomania and narcissism. Intensely suspicious and power hungry, Fey began to fear a coup from within his own government, thinking that more reform minded members of his own faction would remove him and seek a compromise with the Socialists or the Nazi’s to bring about a swift end to the fighting. Yet despite the ever worsening situation, Fey remained committed to the ideal of a “Free Catholic Austria” and began to take more and more responsibility upon himself, isolating his would be allies and all the while growing even more suspicious. Numerous prominent government figures soon found themselves appointed to far off diplomatic posts, or provincial government positions with the intent being to cement Fey’s grip on the government in Vienna...

...Desperate for an easy way out of the situation Fey promptly sent out feelers’ to one of his few supporters, Fascist Italy, in the hopes of soliciting much needed foreign aid...

(From “Hitler and Mussolini: A Pact of Steel?” Margaret Norwich 1953)

...The Austrian Civil War marked a substantial shift in Italo-German relations. Though Mussolini had looked to Germany as a potential ally in his plans for re-establishing the Roman Empire, Hitler’s brash actions regarding Disarmament, the League of Nations, and now Austria seemed set to sour relations between the two countries for the foreseeable future...

...Though the Austrian Civil War should have been a relatively simple foreign policy decision for the Italian dictator, it proved to be much more complicated than initially thought. Key to Mussolini’s reluctance to intervene militarily on the side of Fey’s government was the position of Yugoslavia. Goaded by the German ambassador, Yugoslavia feared that Italy along with Hungary was attempting to form a counter-bloc with Austria against the Little Entente of Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, and Romania. It was feared that Italian intervention in the Austrian Civil War would lead to Fey’s Austria becoming nothing more than an Italian puppet state, a geopolitical state of affairs that would grievously impair Yugoslavian national security. Thus any Italian arms build-up was matched by the Yugoslavians in the hopes of deterring Italian expansion into the Upper Danube...

...Slightly deterred by Yugoslavian threats of intervention, Mussolini decided that discretion was the better part of valour and continued to limit his support of Fey’s government. Yet events were about to transpire that would change the entire nature of Italian foreign policy in the region...

(From “A History of Modern Austria 1918-1998” Theodore Schultz 1999)

...The collapse of Fey’s government forces, though having its roots in Fey’s own megalomania and ambition, can be directly traced back to the decision by the Austrian Nazi’s to stop fighting the Heimwehr and instead focus their efforts on the Socialists, in December of 1933...

...As the fighting continued into the New Year and showed no signs of abating, the resistance of many fighting for the government to the National Socialists began to ebb. Beginning on a small scale, pro-government and Nazi forces began to collaborate against the Socialists, bringing down fortifications and roadblocks and restoring order to various parts of the country. Eventually popular opinion began to drift away from Fey and the Fatherland Front, instead viewing the National Socialists as Austria’s best defence against Bolshevism...

...The final straw would land on January 20th 1934 when Fey ordered pro-government forces to resume attacking National Socialist positions and ignore the Socialists for the time being. Despite having recognized the now greater threat posed by the National Socialists, Fey quickly found that his actions were too little too late. Having isolated and disenfranchised any potential allies, Fey soon found himself at the mercy of the new Major power broker in Austrian politics. An anti-socialist alliance spearheaded by the Nazi’s...

...Fevered attempts by Fey to solicit Italian intervention on his behalf in the interests of preventing German expansion into Austria fell on deaf ears in Rome as a December meeting between Hitler and Mussolini in Venice had established a new status quo in Europe. Italy agreed to acquiesce to a Nazi takeover in Austria provided that all designs on South Tyrol were dropped and future cooperation was ensured...

...Without Italian support, Fey’s position soon collapsed, despite a brief but spirited firefight in the Government compound, he was promptly taken into custody by Anti-Socialist forces and forced to resign his office on the 21st...

...Having removed Fey, the National Socialist led Anti-Socialist forces petitioned President Wilhelm Miklas to appoint pro-Nazi governor of Styria Dr. Anton Rintelen (8) to the office of Chancellor in the interests of ending the Civil War and restoring order to Austria. Feeling he had little other choice Miklas reluctantly agreed...

...With the appointment of Ritelen to the office of Chancellor, Hitler’s first conquest was all but completed. Cries from Britain and France were silenced by declarations that no Anschluss was planned and that Austria was to remain independent from Germany (though this independence was in reality a mere formality)...

...The Austrian Civil War, now having been considerably simplified was quickly brought to an end with the forces of the Anti-Socialist alliance moved decisively breaking the last socialist strongholds and sending all those who escaped scuttling into Czechoslovakia with their tails between their legs...

(From “A Missed Opportunity: The League Response to the Austrian Crisis” By Adam Klassen, 1978)

...The Response of the League of Nations, namely Britain, France, and to an extent Italy, to the Austrian Crisis of late 1933/early 1934 must in the end, be regarded as a missed opportunity. Had Britain and France been willing to support the forces opposed to the Nazi’s either those of Emil Fey and the Austrofascists, or the Socialists under Julius Deutsch and Otto Bauer, the first Nazi victory could have been averted and the Nazi expansion stymied. However all three powers were unprepared for a conflict and shied away from a renewed conflict with Germany despite its incipient rearmament to that point...

...The establishment of a National Socialist autocratic government in Austria, effectively reduced Austria to a German puppet state. At the same time, Austria’s continued independence, if just a formality, adhered to the Treaty of Versailles and prevented any intervention on those grounds, (not that such a route would have been taken.) Furthermore the effects of the Austrian Civil War and the fall of Fey’s Austrofascist regime would lead to Mussolini pursuing a new understanding with Hitler’s resurgent Germany, threatening to completely alter the entire balance of power in Europe...

...Though the League would try to lure Mussolini into an anti-German alliance in the coming years their efforts would be for the most part fruitless. Though Mussolini would play along in order to lull them into a false sense of security, his real desire was nothing less than the imperialistic aggrandisement of the Italian Empire as would be demonstrated by his invasion of Abyssinia in 1935...

Notes
1)POD # 1

2)POD # 2, in OTL, Dertill only managed to wound Dollfuss in the arm

3)An OTL figure, Fey was in fact Vice Chancellor at the time and was later removed. His appetite for fame and power is well noted as during the failed July Putsch that killed Dollfuss in OTL he deliberately withheld information regarding the Nazi movements for no other reason than his own self-aggrandizement.

4)Translated Homeguard, basically an Austrian equivalent of the Freikorps only fiercely anti-Nazi

5)The Military arm of the Austrian Socialists

6)All OTL.

7)Again all OTL.

8)OTL figure who would have been appointed Chancellor of Austria had the 1934 July Putsch succeeded.
 
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