what if in early 1934, Engelbert Dollfuss restored the Austrian monarchy with Otto Von Habsburg at its helm? And during the chaos of transition he is still assassinated allowing Otto to outmanoeuvre the radicals in the Austrian government and set up at least a semi-democratic government? What would be the consequences of this?
Engelbert Dollfuss pulls an early Franco -Restores Otto von Habsburg
- Thread starter Sarthak
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Germany invades Austria in October 1941 while on route towards invading Yugoslavia.
As long as Mussolini still supports Austrian independence, which he likely will, by this point, as long as the Vienna regime is at least somewhat friendly to Italy. Rome protocols are already in effect as well, so I'd say the Austrian independence is at least for the moment.
Just about every single neighbour of Austria is going to be utterly enraged. Hitler, while still likely not acting due to Mussolini's threat of intervention, is going to be enraged that a new, even more anti-nazi regime, lead by his majesty, who previously refused to cooperate with him, has been installed in Vienna. However, this is 1934 and by this point the German army would be hard pressed to beat Luxembourg, so he cannot do any direct action. However, here is where other neighbours come into play.
Prague for one, is going to be so full of screaming it will probably be impossible to sleep there, with the only thing stopping Czechoslovak divisions from flooding into Austria being the threat of war with Italy, something the Western powers are unikely to support. So instead, Prague settles into highly paranoid watching of their southern border. Funnily enough, it was about this year that first complaints about Czechoslovak intelligence being too concerned with the Habsburg danger appeared. Citing general Sergej Ingr of the general staff here: "I have no idea about the dispositions of German divisions, but I have a dozen reports of which Archduke has which mistress, and who has been the latest person to dinner with lady Zita". Suddenly, this will look like a completely reasonable outlook. In Yugoslavia and Romania, similar fear though in a smaller amount will appear. After all, his majesty is the rightfull king of Croatia and duke of Carinthia, where separatist sentiments were quite pronounced, as well as the legitimate king of Hungary and Grand prince of Transylvania, a territory that Hungary was still highly interested in. In Budapest meanwhile, Horthy is probably as terrified as Masaryk and Benes are in Prague. After all, he is considered by many to have betrayed the last king of Hungary, blessed king Charles III., which resulted in his exile and sudden death. And now, his majesty is sitting in Vienna, and there are quite a lot of legitimists who wouldn't mind to give him the crown of Hungary, while Hungarian democrats might well decide that a Habsburg semi-democracy is preferable to Horthy's dictatorship. Horthy will be scared for his very neck here.
So, what does this mean? Well, for one, just about every single local power is going to demand that Otto does not take the Hungarian crown. For Hitler, that would be making his intended first target far too strong, while the Little Entante is utterly terrified of a reunified Habsburg lead Austria-Hungary, with Italian backing. Even Mussolini is likely to refuse to support the idea, as he much prefers two small aligned states before one united "partner". Not that Otto is likely to pursue this, well at least not yet, which will make Horthy breath a sigh of relief, while also making even tighter bonds with Italy, so that Mussolini doesn't change his mind. What will be highly interesting, is what Hitler will do. He can try his OTL policy of slowly swaying Italy so that it would drop its support for Austria, or perhaps he might try to reach to the Little Entente. This I admit is a bit of a stretch, but let's not forget that Hitler was capable of being quite pragmatic in the pre-war years, quite willing to for example cooperate with Poland in the dismantling of Czechoslovakia. As for the Little Entente, Romania ended in an alliance in Germany in OTL, same very nearly happened to Yugoslavia, and the idea of "better a Hitler rulling Vienna then a Habsburg" was the main idea in Prague as late as OTL Anschluss. No direct alliance, but quiet cooperation in acting against Austria and Hungary.
Now, there is of course the possibility that Hitler goes for and suceeds in his OTL approach, with Mussolini deciding to drop his support for independant Austria. In this case, Otto is definetly not giving up without a fight, meaning that Wehrmach would likely encouter at least some ressistance in its occupation, with Otto fleeing and probably forming a government in exile. If things continue to go as IOTL, he is likely to be restored post-war, though perhaps this could result in a divided Austria. Edit: Also, a full on Austrian legion in the West would probably be a reality, something that was organized IOTL but never deployed, if I remember correctly. Austria would almost certainly in here be viewed as full on 1. victim of the Nazis, so the part with divided Austria is actually quite dubious. Perhaps a neutrality as IOTL, but this time with Otto as Kaiser?
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Certainly, another reason Hitler will not move, though not as important one as Italian divisions beyond the Alps.
An interesting thing, when Otto spent time in Germany in 1932, Hindenburg had a meeting with him, where he was dressed in a uniform, with all the Austro-Hungarian millitary decorations he received. Hitler also tried to secure a meeting through crown prince Willhelm, but was denied, with Otto aparently holding a quite early dislike of him and Nazism, which intensified after reading Mein Kampf.
A Habsburg on the Austrian throne would also mean that the diplomatic arena is quite different than otl. An axis Yugoslavia ittl is much more of a possibility i would say
A restoration of the Osterreich Kaiserreich would also embolden von Papen and his scheme for a restored German Empire i would think.
Might Italy be turned off and refuse Otto all support from the get-go for similar reasons that the little Entente countries hate Habsburg restoration? Italy is, in its own way, a Habsburg successor state. Might it fear restored Habsburg ambitions towards Trentino or Trieste?
I doubt it... in 1934 there would've been little that Austria could've done about any revanchist sentiments toward Sudtirol, Trentino, or Trieste, other than politely ask for the "lost provinces" to be handed back over...
Why would that be so? That doesn't make much sense considering that an independent Austria hostile to Germany would make handling the Sudetenland problem much easier for the Czechs.
The Czechoslovaks were a little to paranoid about all things habsburg during the interwar period to actually think like that. Atleast, the ruling governments always seemed to be paranoid about habsburg resurgence rather than looking at the growing threat in Berlin until it was too late.
The elections of 1935 were quite bloody and controversial in Hungary. Taking advantage of the general dissatisfaction with Gömbös's regime, some legitimist elements of the military could launch a coup to overthrow the system and restore the Habsburgs to the throne. Legitimism was very popular both in the military and the public, so the chance of success could be quite high in this scenario, imo. Horthy (who at this point already had his power undermined by Gömbös) could be presented with the option of saving face by officially aknowledging the new realities and proclaiming his support for the restoration.
Upon such development, the Czech political leadership most definitely would be reeeeing like never before, that's for sure.
Upon such development, the Czech political leadership most definitely would be reeeeing like never before, that's for sure.
Once Austria is invaded by the Nazis and all that, the Allies post-war would ensure that Austria reverts back to a republic and puts a kiboosh on a Hapsburg restoration. In this manner, the Allied occupation of Austria would resemble more what's going on (or even coming under the direct jurisdiction of Allied authorities) in neighboring Germany rather than OTL - unless Austrian politicians, like OTL, decide to accept neutrality (and, for TTL purposes, republicanism) as a price for a united independent Austria. One thing that would be certain here is that Austria ITTL would be very different from Austria IOTL.
Yeah. Czechoslovakia's paranoia over the Habsburgs really makes it difficult to envisage a scenario where a Habsburg restoration happens during the interwar period without the Czechoslovaks immediately putting a stop to it. IIRC, the Czechoslovaks were willing to stop a Habsburg restoration even regardless of whatever their ally, France told them to do. Hitler also was of the same mind on this subject too. In January 1938 (after he had decided in November 1937 that he would conquer Austria and Czechoslovakia no later than 1945 and as early as 1938), he told the Polish Foreign Minister and the Yugoslav Prime Minister that, while otherwise claiming that he only intended to develop Germany's relationship with Austria in a peaceful fashion, he would immediately invade Austria without considering the attitudes of France and Britain if a Habsburg restoration was attempted.
Very, very, very unlikely if you take Dolfuss's plan for restoration into consideration. In his letter to President Lebrun of France, he wrote:-
or
The western allies won't be dismantling what they themselves would have had a hand in restoring.
Furthermore, even in 1938, the Austrian Army was capable of resisting for 2 weeks, with Austrian, British, German and French intelligence pointing out that nearly everyone in the Austrian Army, even Pan-German Nationalists and Austrian Nazi sympathizers would fight if ordered to, an Austria whose monarchy is restored partly due to the western powers & a democratic referendum restoration & resists the Nazis through military means is going to be seen very favorably in the west. And Dolfuss's entire point of restoring the Habsburgs was to regrow pre-1914 Austrian nationalism and build up the Austrian military in preparation of an Austro-German War using Otto's foreign contacts in American and British manufacturers. The entire situation butterflies the leadup to WW2 and its aftermath (if it even happens as we know it) to make any deterministic claims on post-ww2, considering the entire geo-political situation has been changed radically.
Germany intervening in 1934 is out. In the December 1934 Wargames, the Wehrmacht was so weak they estimated that the Austrians could defend themselves easily and make small pushes into Bavaria. Czechoslovakia intervening is a possibility, but Dolfuss's plan defangs that in the bud. In 1938, after the 1935-1936 industrial buildup of the Czech government, Prague could ignore France, but before it, considering France & Britain owned 42% of the Czech government, they could not ignore Paris and London.
The problem with that idea is that pan-Germanism (particularly with the rise of the Nazis across the border and their growing support in Austria itself) was a stronger tendency at that point, whereas monarchical restoration wouldn't really work as a way to regrow Austrian nationalism. After all, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was defeated in battle, which gives it a tinge of unpopularity that was amplified with the mayhem that happen during the late 1910s that led up to the First Republic. As well, until the Austrian government-in-exile made its move IOTL, the Allies were perfectly content to treat Austria as part of Germany for the purpose of carving out occupation zones. (Not to mention that a good portion of the Austrian Resistance was actually done through the KPÖ, the Austrian Communist Party, which would probably be pretty wary of any monarchical restoration.) So a monarchical restoration by Dolfusz here would basically be giving a Hapsburg restoration a perceptual tinge of fascist/Nazi influence that would not be wanted in a post-Nazi Austria, giving off the opposite effect of what was intended (even if the Hapsburgs themselves were anti-Nazi).
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Informative response, thanks!
So, from what you've told us, there's indeed a chance of a Habsburg restoration happening in 1934 if France and Mussolini (France will probably be fine with it, Mussolini, probably less so than France, though he'll probably be okay with it too) are okay with it, since the Reichswehr is too weak at this point, and Czechoslovakia can't ignore France at this point.
So, from what you've told us, there's indeed a chance of a Habsburg restoration happening in 1934 if France and Mussolini (France will probably be fine with it, Mussolini, probably less so than France, though he'll probably be okay with it too) are okay with it, since the Reichswehr is too weak at this point, and Czechoslovakia can't ignore France at this point.
So what major changes from OTL do you think would occur in the leadup to WWII? I think Hitler is probably still going to make the same major foreign policy actions in the next three years that he did in OTL (like for example, repudiating Part V of Versailles in March 1935 with the public reveal of the Luffwaffe and the reintroduction of conscription, and repudiating Locarno in March 1936 with the remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936). Once it's 1938 though, I could definitely indeed see Hitler acting differently from OTL, especially with regards to Austria.
Er no, it wasn't. While it is a stereotype to say as such, in January 8, 1938, Neues Volksblatt Newspaper conducted a poll that showed around 52% of Austrian did not wish for unification with Germany and considered themselves 'Austrian' before German. The number, per other newspaper polls of the same era swung between 40% to 60% for and against the entire time but never dipped below that range, meaning that a strong plurality of Austrians remained sceptics of unification.
That does not explain why, literally everyone believed that with Dolfuss's democratic referendum, everyone believed the Habsburgs would be restored. British Intelligence four days before Dolfuss died concluded that 'In all aspects, should the referendum take place legitimately without meddling as the Austrian Government wants to, then the Habsburg Dynasty will be restored in Austria without fail. The current situation in Austria lends itself extraordinarily in favor of Monarchist sentiment, which has experienced a massive upsurge after the Depression.' (pg 28 of Dolfuss und die Vaterländische Front)
French, German, Soviet, Italian and American intelligence concurred with the British in this regard.
The bolded is extremely and blatantly wrong. Austrian Resistance Groups IOTL:-
1. Prinz Eugen's Free Austria (Pro-Habsburg)
2. Korallenpartisanen (Neutral, had no political inclinations)
3. Styrian Erzeberg Resistance (Communist, anti-monarchist, but pro-Habsburg enough to offer citizenship and aid to Otto)
4. Salzkammergut Resistance (Nominally communist, but employed monarchists)
5. Franz Josef Messner Resistance (Catholic Conservative Resistance, ie pro-monarchist)
6. Abwehr Resistance (no political inclinations other than the liberation of Austria)
7. Antinazi Freedom Movement (no political inclinations other than catholic conservatism and constitutionalism)
8. Cartellverband (Women's Catholic Resistance)
9. Tyrolean Resistance (Pro-Habsburg, made attempts to contact Otto OTL)
10. Ostfrei (Pro-Habsburg)
11. Arnold Koster Resistance (No political inclinations)
12. The Legitimist Alliance - (Definitely pro-habsburg, name says it all. Nazi intelligence points out to ~9000 fighters involved in the Legitimist Alliance)
13.KPÖ (Anti-Monarchist - had ~6000 fighters under arms according to Nazi intelligence)
14. Carinthian Resistance (Big Tent, had no communist or monarchist consensus other than keeping the Germans and Nazis out)
15. Österreichische Demokratische Union (Pro-Habsburg, strongly supported Otto's idea of a Free Austrian Legion)
Of course there were other resistance groups, but these were the ones that had the most influence, power and political influence in wartime Austria. Of them, in Die Feuer in der Nacht. Opfer und Sinn des österreichischen Widerstandes by Fritz Molden, it is estimated that 25% were Communists, 25% were Monarchists, 25% were Neutrals, and 25% were Catholic Resistances.
Not really. Otto von Habsburg was adamant that his condition for returning was democratic elections held. The problem in Austria was that the Fatherland Front had banned all the other parties so when the elections came it was either the FF or the Independents. In that case the Austrian Republic was fair, considering independents were elected rather legitimately. Dolfuss was in contact with the SPO and was ready to lift the ban on every party (barring the KPO and Austrian Nazis) due to his fear of german and/or Italian Invasion, wanting to get political unity. If the referendum goes through and Otto returns, then Otto would have summarily restored Austrian democracy (for the most part) in the process, which would only heighten his reputation.
That depends. Dolfuss was intent on using Otto's foreign contacts, especially Otto's investment into American industries and Vickers in Britain to build up the Austrian Army for what he deemed to be an inevitable conflict between Vienna and Berlin. Despite his friendship with Mussolini personally, he was also more than aware that Italy could join the bandwagon and decide to join Germany in carving up Austria, which is why the OTL Alpine fortifications of Austria were constructed by his orders in 1933-34. Coupled with Otto's restoration of democracy, and the resultant propaganda in favor of the new constitutional monarchist regime, then I could see Austria making a strong military stand. IOTL, despite all the suspicions and the weak military build up, Austria was capable of resisting for 2 weeks, so at least a few months of strong resistance could be in the cards.
One thing's for sure though, I almost certainly don't see Hitler doing an immediate mobilization and invasion of Austria like he did OTL. The rushed mobilization caused a lot of breakdowns and holdups to happen while carrying out the occupation of Austria OTL. Now imagine that against an Austrian Army actually willing to fight. The Wehrmacht could possibly get embarrassed in the initial engagements against Austria. Therefore, Hitler would likely instead carry out a more standard mobilization and military campaign against Austria, and possibly increase military spending and accelerate construction of the Westwall like he did in May 1938 while preparing to fight Czechoslovakia OTL. The Austrian Army actually resisting the invasion of course is almost certainly going to have knock-on effects with regards to Czechoslovakia and Poland (If the invasion of Austria itself doesn't trigger WWII ITTL).